Merrill downgraded Campbell Soup (NYSE: CPB) to Neutral from Buy and expects marketing and promotional spending to limit earnings growth in 2009 and 2010. The firm lowered their target to $35 from $42.
Mechel Steel (NYSE: MTL) was cut to Underweight from Equal Weight at Morgan Stanley to reflect declining coal demand.
Friedman Billings downgraded shares of Legg Mason (NYSE: LM) to Underperform from Market Perform on liquidity concerns given the Legg Mason's leveraged balance sheet and falling EBITDA. The firm lowered their target to $7 from $11.
In February of 2007, Blackstone Group (NYSE: BX) boss Stephen Schwarzman spent $3 million on his own birthday party at the Park Avenue Armory. Patti LaBelle and Rod Stewart (singing 'Reason to Believe' perhaps?) provided the entertainment for the 500 guests.
The lavish excess was ill-timed, as the industry went sour shortly thereafter. A few months after that party, Blackstone went public in the $25 per share range. Now the stock trades at less than $9 and the orgy surrounding Schwarzman's $8 billion cashout helped fuel calls for increased regulation of private equity.
Now Schwarzman regrets the whole thing -- or at least the birthday party. Speaking at a conference in New York, he said that "Obviously, I wouldn't have wanted to do that and become, you know, some kind of symbol of sorts of that period of time. Who would ever wish that on themselves? No one."
Indeed. Who would ever want to become a symbol of having enormous amounts of money? How awful.
With global markets in turmoil – and as the credit crunch worsens – AIG (NYSE: AIG) has the miserable task of raising $75 billion to meet its capital requirements. The firm has talked to various private equity firms (who have basically wanted the keys to the operation). There were even talks with Warren Buffett.
No doubt, AIG is scrambling to assess its asset base as well. Which could fetch good values?
Interesting enough, there is one asset that hasn't received much attention: an equity stake in Blackstone Group LP (NYSE: BX).
About 10 ears ago, AIG invested roughly $150 million in the private-equity powerhouse. Now, the stock is worth about $700 million. Moreover, AIG has investments in Blackstone funds that amount to about $1 billion.
So yes, AIG may dump these holdings on the market – and put pressure on Blackstone's shares, right?
Perhaps. Although, investors don't seem to be concerned (the stock price has held steady in the current financial storm). Then again, Blackstone doesn't have balance sheet issues. More importantly, the firm has been bulking up its abilities to capitalize on distressed investments – which seems spot-on right now.
Were you wondering which sector of the U.S. economy would be next to take a dive from the year-old credit crunch? Well look no further, because Barron's [subscription required] reports that private equity firms like Apollo Global Management, Kohlberg Kravis Roberts, and Blackstone Group (NYSE: BX) are hurting gators thanks to too much borrowed money and the weak financial performance of the companies they bought. And business is way down, Barron's reports that through mid-August, the 2008 total deal volume "stood at $67 billion, versus more than $400 billion in the corresponding 2007 period."
This does not come as a surprise to me. In February 2007, I appeared on CNBC arguing that private equity had peaked. And I began to question its long-term viability back in August 2006 when Barron'sAlan Abelson quoted my thoughts on the matter. The basic problem is that when debt is cheap, private equity booms and when it starts selling itself to the public, investors should hold onto their wallets for dear life. People who own private equity firms tap their superior knowledge of the coming downturn to convince the public to bail them out by buying their stock.
Barron's cites -- as evidence of trouble in private equity land -- examples of the declining value of the publicly traded debt in companies that private equity took private at too-high prices with too much borrowed money. It writes that bonds of "many companies taken private in the past two years have plunged to 50 cents on the dollar or less, signaling that investors fear they won't be fully repaid. Many companies that were the subjects of buyouts a year or two ago are so grossly over-leveraged that they're struggling simply to pay interest. If they were to default, debt investors would be stung, but equity investors would be even worse off; the value of their holdings would be deeply impaired or wiped out."
Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. (NYSE: LEH) is poised to lose $2.6 billion and it's trying to dump $40 billion worth of real estate from its books. The Wall Street Journal reports that Guy Moszkowski, a Merrill Lynch & Co., Inc. (NYSE: MER) analyst thinks Lehman could lose $2.6 billion -- while others expect a mere $1.8 billion loss. Lehman normally reports in mid-September but it may pre-announce earnings this month.
I always find it interesting when analysts -- particularly those who work for banks with their own problems -- offer bearish earnings outlooks for their competitors. But I have met Moszkowski and I found him to be both very smart and a straight shooter. The Journal reports that he "more than doubled his loss projection to $2.6 billion and predicts that Lehman will take a $4.5 billion hit from write-downs." It quotes him as saying that an additional markdown up to 20% related to Lehman's remaining $64 billion in mortgage and commercial real-estate exposure "seems like a lot but can't be ruled out." If that were to happen, Lehman might need to raise more capital.
Speaking of that real estate, FT.com reports that Lehman is in talks to dump $40 billion worth of commercial real estate assets and securities. FT.com reports that there is a wide gap in what the potential buyers -- Blackstone Group (NYSE: BX) and BlackRock (NYSE: BLK) -- and Lehman think those assets are worth. It also reports that the assets in question consist of mortgages and mortgage-backed securities that Lehman valued at $29.4 billion at the end of May and real estate assets then valued at $10.4 billion.
When the Blackstone Group LP (NYSE: BX) went public a year ago, the Chinese government invested $3 billion in the firm. No doubt, this was a sign that Blackstone was ready for lots of dealmaking.
But so far, things have been underwhelming. One of the deals was for a mere $600 million for a 20% stake in China National Bluestar Corporation (a chemicals company). There was also the $160.7 million purchase of a commercial building in Shanghai.
However, Blackstone isn't giving up. In fact, today the company announced the opening of its Chinese office in Beijing. The chief of the operation will be Fu Shan who was formerly the VP of Beijing Mainstreets Investment Group Corporation (which focuses on real estate deals). He also has extensive background with governmental divisions, such as the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC).
Blackstone realizes that China requires more than just money and deal structuring. There needs to be staff that has deep experience in dealing with the intricacies of the country. Even with this, the dealmaking is still likely to be a slog.
With bulging coffers, U.S. private equity firms have been aggressively expanding into foreign markets. One of the big players is The Blackstone Group LP (NYSE: BX).
According to a piece in the Financial Times, it looks like Blackstone is taking a look at Informa Plc, a UK publisher.
Actually, it looks like other major private equity firms, such as Providence Equity Partners Ltd. and Carlyle Group, are swarming over the company.
Informa was formed, in 1998, as the result of a merger of the IBC Group plc and LLP Group plc, but if you take a look at the various businesses, the roots go back to 1734 with the first maritime publication.
As of now, Informa has operations in 40 countries and about 10,000 employees. Moreover, the firm organizes more than 10,000 events and conferences a year. There are also 2,500 subscription based information services. In other words, Informa has a fairly steady business, with strong recurring revenues.
Interestingly enough, last month Providence Equity made a preliminary overture for Informa for about $4.29 billion. But getting debt financing won't be easy.
Then again, in the case of Blackstone, it might not have to worry about such things since it looks like the firm is teaming up with the cash-flush Dubai World Trade Center sovereign wealth fund.
TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says as long as there are other buyers of the paper, look for other similar deals.
Merrill's (NYSE: MER) (Cramer's Take) deal with Lone Star gives the first real stab of the private market value of this paper, 22 cents on the dollar. But when you add in the financing you can argue that it is about half that.
Why so low? Because even after a year and a half of stress, we still can't publicly value this stuff.
Remember the deal with Lone Star is a private one, where the investors have to wait five years for the paper to mature. We don't really know what a CDO is worth, you just know what they may have paid.
This is despite the fact that for years now, this stuff has existed, no one has come out and said "this CDO has a lot of Florida, so it is bad," or "this piece of paper has a 90% default rate," or "this debt is hindered by bad HELOC."
Without that info, we can't price it. Lone Star knows more than most, but basically had to put up very little. In this deal, Merrill said "here, we will pay you to take these off our hands."
The Financial Times reported that Bain Capital, The Blackstone Group LP (NYSE: BX) and General Electric Company's (NYSE: GE) NBC universal will acquire The Weather Channel properties from Landmark Communications for approximately $3.2B in a leveraged buy-out. The Weather Channel will be run separately.
A top Goldman Sachs Group Inc (NYSE: GS) trader is defecting to GLG Partners Inc (NYSE: GLG), the UK's second-largest hedge fund. Goldman's Driss Ben-Brahim, a partner in the firm and the head of its emerging market trading business, will take over GLG's $1.2B emerging markets special situations fund, the Financial Times reported.
OTHER PAPERS:
Take-Two Interactive Software Inc (NASDAQ: TTWO), which makes video games, will probably sign video game creator Ken Levine to a new contract. The deal would bolster Take Two's argument that its value exceeds the $25.74 per share that Electronic Arts Inc (NASDAQ: ERTS) has offered as a takeover price for the company, The New York Post believes.
Last December Chemtura Corporation (NYSE: CEM), a specialty chemicals company with a market cap of about $1.9B, said it might sell itself, and now The Blackstone Group LP (NYSE: BX) and Apollo Management are in talks to buy the company, the Wall Street Journal reported.
In part one of a series to help explain the reasons why The Bear Stearns Companies (NYSE: BSC) collapsed, the Wall Street Journal said that the troubled firm was torn apart by executives who couldn't agree on what course to take, including raising capital and slicing mortgage and related bonds from its inventory. And each of about six attempts to raise capital fell part.
OTHER PAPERS:
The American investor and Berkshire Hathaway Inc (NYSE: BRK.A) chief Warren Buffett said the United States is already in a recession that is deeper and will last longer than the public expects, the Economic Times reported.
According to the Telegraph, Barclays Plc (NYSE: BCS) is planning to sell Barclays Life Assurance Company, its life assurance arm, which has over GBP7B of funds under management. Sources believe potential bidders for the unit may include Pearl, Swiss Reinsurance Company (OTC: SWCEY), General Re, Canada Life and XL Re. Market commentators believe that on an embedded value basis, the unit is currently valued at around GBP1B.
According to people familiar with American International Group Inc's (NYSE: AIG) board, some directors feel that another big loss in the current quarter could prompt them to re-evaluate their support for CEO Martin Sullivan. The sources said a decision on Sullivan's fate isn't likely to be made until the company sees results over the next several months, the Wall Street Journal reported.
The Boeing Company (NYSE: BA) closed a helicopter production line for several hours yesterday due to possible irregularities found in two military helicopters, the Seattle Times reported. The company did not disclose exactly why it shut down the production of the H-47 Chinooks.
WEB SITES:
According to Mac Rumors, citing French LeMatin.ch, a source in Swisscom AG (OTC: SCMWY) said Switzerland will be getting the iPhone device from Apple Inc (NASDAQ: AAPL) this summer, and it will feature GPS, Video Conferencing and Mobile TV.
Former Barclaycard Marc Howells can relax a bit. Even though he was forced to quit on the last day of 2007, his comment that the company's results were "like Muslims - some were good, some were Shi'ite" is no longer the most offensive joke uttered by a corporate figure that ended up in the hands of the media in the past 6 months.
According to MarketWatch's David Weidner, Blackstone Group (NYSE: BX) head Stephen Schwarzman actually said the following in a speech to investors in Boca Raton: "Trying to buy a mortgage bank in the midst of the subprime crisis was the equivalent of being a noodle salesman in Nagasaki when the atomic bomb went off. Not a lot of noodles left or even a person -- and that's what happened to us on this deal."
Wow. Just wow. Making jokes about the atomic bomb in a speech to investors is ... ambitious? Weidner points out that "the analogy probably went over pretty well at Blackstone's brand-spanking new Tokyo office," and then proceeds to compare Schwarzman to Marie Antoinette. Ouch.
I'm sure he'll have to issue a tail-between-the-legs apology, but most Blackstone Group shareholders are probably more worried about the billions of dollars in market value that have evaporated since the company's IPO. After hitting a high of $38 on June 22nd, the stock has settled in at right around $19.
A newly published report by Standard & Poor's said that the performance of organizations such as Federal National Mortgage Association (NYSE: FNM), or Fannie Mae, and Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation (NYSE: FRE), or Freddie Mac, could directly affect the U.S. economy and the country's credit rating, especially if they have to be rescued by the government, according to the Wall Street Journal's "Credit Markets" column.
Seagate Technology LLC (NYSE: STX), a hard drive maker, filed a patent infringement suit in San Francisco against STEC Inc (NASDAQ: STEC) over four patents related to technology used to store data on computer chips, the Wall Street Journal reported.
The Financial Times reported that Citigroup Incorporated (NYSE: C) is allowing private equity groups such as Apollo, The Blackstone Group LP (NYSE: BX) and TPG that are bidding for up to $12B of its leveraged loans to 'cherry-pick' from a wide range of assets with different credit ratings and prices.
In an effort to increase sales in the Middle East, the Wall Street Journal reported that Dell Inc (NASDAQ: DELL) is in talks with a government-owned vehicle in Dubai called Tecom about establishing a joint venture.
The Wall Street Journal also reported that Washington Mutual Incorporated (NYSE: WM), which obtained a $7B capital infusion from TPG and other investors, had reportedly been working on the TPG deal while negotiating with JP Morgan Chase & Co (NYSE: JPM), which made a preliminary takeover bid of about $7B, people familiar with the deal said.
Citigroup Incorporated (NYSE: C) is close to reaching a deal to sell $12B in leveraged loans at a discount to a group of leading private equity firms, the Financial Times reported. Although details of the deal were still being worked out, inside sources said Apollo Management, The Blackstone Group LP (NYSE: BX) and TPG would buy the loan portfolio at a discount that could come in at about 90 cents on the dollar.
OTHER PAPERS:
The UK Times reported that The Boeing Company (NYSE: BA) is today expected to announce that its 787 Dreamliner has been delayed by 18 months, a setback which will affect all airlines that have ordered the 787, including British Airways Plc (OTC: BAIRY) and Virgin Atlantic.
Since 1992, Blackstone (NYSE: BX) has been a big player in the real estate business, striking over 200 deals amounting to about $103 billion. Some of its transactions include Hilton ($26.9 billion), Equity Office Properties Trust ($38.6 billion) and Trizec Properties, Inc. ($9.2 billion).
Well, it looks like Blackstone is ready for more dealmaking as the firm has raised $10.9 billion for its next fund (Blackstone Real Estate Partners VI).
But isn't there a credit crunch? That's true. What's more, there are signs of problems in the commercial real estate sector.
However, it looks like Blackstone is going to focus on global markets. Something else: with the dislocations in the U.S. financial markets, there may be some good valuations.
A key advantage with Blackstone is that it has leverage across a large portfolio of existing real estate, as well as operating companies. In other words, I suspect the firm will have little trouble putting the billions to work.
In today's trading, Blackstone's stock is up 2.58% to $16.29.
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In February of 2007, 
With global markets in turmoil – and as the credit crunch worsens – 
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Were you wondering which sector of the U.S. economy would be next to take a dive from the year-old credit crunch? Well look no further, because 
When the 
With bulging coffers, U.S. private equity firms have been aggressively expanding into foreign markets. One of the big players is 
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Since 1992, 
Big 3 CEOs drive to Washington to suck up to Congress
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Cramer on BloggingStocks: A troika of opportunity and trouble 
