Continue reading No Bargains in Private Equity, Unlike 2001

No Bargains in Private Equity, Unlike 2001 originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 01 Mar 2010 15:10:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

The private equity industry has been through the worst, but now it seems the situation is taking a turn for the better. Stephen Schwarzman, CEO of Blackstone (NYSE: BX) expects deal flow and IPOs to bounce, saying the economy is showing "more than green shoots" of recovery.

Schwarzman, speaking at the Super Return Middle East conference in Dubai, doesn't expect another slip into recession, but the full recovery will take time, for all the same reasons you've been reading on BloggingStocks for a while: tighter lending standards; uncooperative consumers who won't spend beyond their means and so on.

Continue reading Blackstone ready for recovery with exit strategy of sales and IPOs

Blackstone ready for recovery with exit strategy of sales and IPOs originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 14 Oct 2009 10:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Analyst upgrades:

• Baird upgraded Regal-Beloit (NYSE: RBC) to Outperform from Neutral based on valuation and growth expectations.
• Black & Decker (NYSE: BDK) and Lennar (NYSE: LEN) were upgraded to Buy from Neutral at UBS based on valuation.
• Kroger (NYSE: KR) and Public Storage (NYSE: PSA) were added to Goldman's Conviction Buy List.
• CIBC upgraded Biovail (NYSE: BVF) to Sector Performer from Sector Underperformer.
• Abercrombie & Fitch (NYSE: ANF) was raised to Neutral from Underperform at Cowen.

• Merrill downgraded Campbell Soup (NYSE: CPB) to Neutral from Buy and expects marketing and promotional spending to limit earnings growth in 2009 and 2010. The firm lowered their target to $35 from $42.
• Mechel Steel (NYSE: MTL) was cut to Underweight from Equal Weight at Morgan Stanley to reflect declining coal demand.
  
• Friedman Billings downgraded shares of Legg Mason (NYSE: LM) to Underperform from Market Perform on liquidity concerns given the Legg Mason's leveraged balance sheet and falling EBITDA. The firm lowered their target to $7 from $11.

Continue reading Analyst calls: RBC, BDK, KR, LEN, KR, CPB, MTL, LM, PIR, AAPL, AVP ...

Analyst calls: RBC, BDK, KR, LEN, KR, CPB, MTL, LM, PIR, AAPL, AVP ... originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 25 Nov 2008 11:41:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Stephen Schwarzman regrets 2007 birthday bash originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Fri, 31 Oct 2008 15:18:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

With global markets in turmoil - and as the credit crunch worsens - AIG (NYSE: AIG) has the miserable task of raising $75 billion to meet its capital requirements. The firm has talked to various private equity firms (who have basically wanted the keys to the operation). There were even talks with Warren Buffett.

No doubt, AIG is scrambling to assess its asset base as well. Which could fetch good values?

Interesting enough, there is one asset that hasn't received much attention: an equity stake in Blackstone Group LP (NYSE: BX).

About 10 ears ago, AIG invested roughly $150 million in the private-equity powerhouse. Now, the stock is worth about $700 million. Moreover, AIG has investments in Blackstone funds that amount to about $1 billion.

So yes, AIG may dump these holdings on the market - and put pressure on Blackstone's shares, right?

Perhaps. Although, investors don't seem to be concerned (the stock price has held steady in the current financial storm). Then again, Blackstone doesn't have balance sheet issues. More importantly, the firm has been bulking up its abilities to capitalize on distressed investments - which seems spot-on right now.

Tom Taulli is the author of various books, including The Complete M&A Handbook and The Edgar Online Guide to Decoding Financial Statements. He is also the founder of BizEquity, a valuation website

AIG to dump Blackstone stake? originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 16 Sep 2008 09:58:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Were you wondering which sector of the U.S. economy would be next to take a dive from the year-old credit crunch? Well look no further, because Barron's [subscription required] reports that private equity firms like Apollo Global Management, Kohlberg Kravis Roberts, and Blackstone Group (NYSE: BX) are hurting gators thanks to too much borrowed money and the weak financial performance of the companies they bought. And business is way down, Barron's reports that through mid-August, the 2008 total deal volume "stood at $67 billion, versus more than $400 billion in the corresponding 2007 period."

This does not come as a surprise to me. In February 2007, I appeared on CNBC arguing that private equity had peaked. And I began to question its long-term viability back in August 2006 when Barron's Alan Abelson quoted my thoughts on the matter. The basic problem is that when debt is cheap, private equity booms and when it starts selling itself to the public, investors should hold onto their wallets for dear life. People who own private equity firms tap their superior knowledge of the coming downturn to convince the public to bail them out by buying their stock.

Barron's cites -- as evidence of trouble in private equity land -- examples of the declining value of the publicly traded debt in companies that private equity took private at too-high prices with too much borrowed money. It writes that bonds of "many companies taken private in the past two years have plunged to 50 cents on the dollar or less, signaling that investors fear they won't be fully repaid. Many companies that were the subjects of buyouts a year or two ago are so grossly over-leveraged that they're struggling simply to pay interest. If they were to default, debt investors would be stung, but equity investors would be even worse off; the value of their holdings would be deeply impaired or wiped out."

Continue reading Barron's: Private equity is next shoe to drop

Barron's: Private equity is next shoe to drop originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Sat, 30 Aug 2008 10:08:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. (NYSE: LEH) is poised to lose $2.6 billion and it's trying to dump $40 billion worth of real estate from its books. The Wall Street Journal reports that Guy Moszkowski, a Merrill Lynch & Co., Inc. (NYSE: MER) analyst thinks Lehman could lose $2.6 billion -- while others expect a mere $1.8 billion loss. Lehman normally reports in mid-September but it may pre-announce earnings this month.

I always find it interesting when analysts -- particularly those who work for banks with their own problems -- offer bearish earnings outlooks for their competitors. But I have met Moszkowski and I found him to be both very smart and a straight shooter. The Journal reports that he "more than doubled his loss projection to $2.6 billion and predicts that Lehman will take a $4.5 billion hit from write-downs." It quotes him as saying that an additional markdown up to 20% related to Lehman's remaining $64 billion in mortgage and commercial real-estate exposure "seems like a lot but can't be ruled out." If that were to happen, Lehman might need to raise more capital.

Speaking of that real estate, FT.com reports that Lehman is in talks to dump $40 billion worth of commercial real estate assets and securities. FT.com reports that there is a wide gap in what the potential buyers -- Blackstone Group (NYSE: BX) and BlackRock (NYSE: BLK) -- and Lehman think those assets are worth. It also reports that the assets in question consist of mortgages and mortgage-backed securities that Lehman valued at $29.4 billion at the end of May and real estate assets then valued at $10.4 billion.

Continue reading Can Lehman dump $40 billion in real estate?

Can Lehman dump $40 billion in real estate? originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 18 Aug 2008 10:18:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Tom Taulli is the author of various books, including The Complete M&A Handbook and The Edgar Online Guide to Decoding Financial Statements. He also operates MergerBook.com.

Blackstone bulks up in China originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 04 Aug 2008 13:10:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Tom Taulli is the author of various books, including The Complete M&A Handbook and The Edgar Online Guide to Decoding Financial Statements. He also operates MergerBook.com.

Blackstone chasing Informa? originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 31 Jul 2008 10:50:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Continue reading Cramer on BloggingStocks: Merrill starts process of CDO dumping

Cramer on BloggingStocks: Merrill starts process of CDO dumping originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 30 Jul 2008 09:09:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

MAJOR PAPERS:

• The Financial Times reported that Bain Capital, The Blackstone Group LP (NYSE: BX) and General Electric Company's (NYSE: GE) NBC universal will acquire The Weather Channel properties from Landmark Communications for approximately $3.2B in a leveraged buy-out. The Weather Channel will be run separately.
• A top Goldman Sachs Group Inc (NYSE: GS) trader is defecting to GLG Partners Inc (NYSE: GLG), the UK's second-largest hedge fund. Goldman's Driss Ben-Brahim, a partner in the firm and the head of its emerging market trading business, will take over GLG's $1.2B emerging markets special situations fund, the Financial Times reported.

• Take-Two Interactive Software Inc (NASDAQ: TTWO), which makes video games, will probably sign video game creator Ken Levine to a new contract. The deal would bolster Take Two's argument that its value exceeds the $25.74 per share that Electronic Arts Inc (NASDAQ: ERTS) has offered as a takeover price for the company, The New York Post believes.

• Reuters reported that Deutsche Bank AG (NYSE: DB) is the only bidder remaining for Citigroup Incorporated's (NYSE: C) German retail operations. Sources said Commerzbank AG (OTC: CRZBY) dropped out of the running on Friday.

Newspaper wrap-up: NBC Universal and consortium to acquire The Weather Channel originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 07 Jul 2008 10:50:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

MAJOR PAPERS:

• Last December Chemtura Corporation (NYSE: CEM), a specialty chemicals company with a market cap of about $1.9B, said it might sell itself, and now The Blackstone Group LP (NYSE: BX) and Apollo Management are in talks to buy the company, the Wall Street Journal reported.
• In part one of a series to help explain the reasons why The Bear Stearns Companies (NYSE: BSC) collapsed, the Wall Street Journal said that the troubled firm was torn apart by executives who couldn't agree on what course to take, including raising capital and slicing mortgage and related bonds from its inventory. And each of about six attempts to raise capital fell part.

• The American investor and Berkshire Hathaway Inc (NYSE: BRK.A) chief Warren Buffett said the United States is already in a recession that is deeper and will last longer than the public expects, the Economic Times reported.
• According to the Telegraph, Barclays Plc (NYSE: BCS) is planning to sell Barclays Life Assurance Company, its life assurance arm, which has over GBP7B of funds under management. Sources believe potential bidders for the unit may include Pearl, Swiss Reinsurance Company (OTC: SWCEY), General Re, Canada Life and XL Re. Market commentators believe that on an embedded value basis, the unit is currently valued at around GBP1B.

Newspaper wrap-up: Blackstone Group, Apollo, to bid for Chemtura originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 27 May 2008 08:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

MAJOR PAPERS:

• According to people familiar with American International Group Inc's (NYSE: AIG) board, some directors feel that another big loss in the current quarter could prompt them to re-evaluate their support for CEO Martin Sullivan. The sources said a decision on Sullivan's fate isn't likely to be made until the company sees results over the next several months, the Wall Street Journal reported.
• The Financial Times reported that Kohlberg Kravis Roberts, The Blackstone Group LP (NYSE: BX) and Apax Partners are among the private equity groups that have been blocked from bidding int he first round of the GBP7B auction of The Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc's (NYSE: RBS) insurance business.

• The Boeing Company (NYSE: BA) closed a helicopter production line for several hours yesterday due to possible irregularities found in two military helicopters, the Seattle Times reported. The company did not disclose exactly why it shut down the production of the H-47 Chinooks.

• According to Mac Rumors, citing French LeMatin.ch, a source in Swisscom AG (OTC: SCMWY) said Switzerland will be getting the iPhone device from Apple Inc (NASDAQ: AAPL) this summer, and it will feature GPS, Video Conferencing and Mobile TV.

Newspaper wrap-up: Boeing temporarily shuts down helicopter production line originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 14 May 2008 08:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Blackstone Group head makes an off-color joke originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 13 May 2008 10:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

MAJOR PAPERS:

• A newly published report by Standard & Poor's said that the performance of organizations such as Federal National Mortgage Association (NYSE: FNM), or Fannie Mae, and Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation (NYSE: FRE), or Freddie Mac, could directly affect the U.S. economy and the country's credit rating, especially if they have to be rescued by the government, according to the Wall Street Journal's "Credit Markets" column.
• Seagate Technology LLC (NYSE: STX), a hard drive maker, filed a patent infringement suit in San Francisco against STEC Inc (NASDAQ: STEC) over four patents related to technology used to store data on computer chips, the Wall Street Journal reported.
• The Financial Times reported that Citigroup Incorporated (NYSE: C) is allowing private equity groups such as Apollo, The Blackstone Group LP (NYSE: BX) and TPG that are bidding for up to $12B of its leveraged loans to 'cherry-pick' from a wide range of assets with different credit ratings and prices.

• According to analysts, Reuters reported that technology industry leaders that include International Business Machines Corporation (NYSE: IBM), Oracle Corporation (NASDAQ: ORCL), Cisco Systems Inc (NASDAQ: CSCO) and Hewlett-Packard Company (NYSE: HPQ) are among the companies with large cash reserves that could be used to fund acquisitions.

Newspaper wrap-up: If the U.S. has to save Fannie and Freddie, triple-A rating could suffer originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 15 Apr 2008 09:15:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

MAJOR PAPERS:

• In an effort to increase sales in the Middle East, the Wall Street Journal reported that Dell Inc (NASDAQ: DELL) is in talks with a government-owned vehicle in Dubai called Tecom about establishing a joint venture.
• The Wall Street Journal also reported that Washington Mutual Incorporated (NYSE: WM), which obtained a $7B capital infusion from TPG and other investors, had reportedly been working on the TPG deal while negotiating with JP Morgan Chase & Co (NYSE: JPM), which made a preliminary takeover bid of about $7B, people familiar with the deal said.
• Citigroup Incorporated (NYSE: C) is close to reaching a deal to sell $12B in leveraged loans at a discount to a group of leading private equity firms, the Financial Times reported. Although details of the deal were still being worked out, inside sources said Apollo Management, The Blackstone Group LP (NYSE: BX) and TPG would buy the loan portfolio at a discount that could come in at about 90 cents on the dollar.

• The UK Times reported that The Boeing Company (NYSE: BA) is today expected to announce that its 787 Dreamliner has been delayed by 18 months, a setback which will affect all airlines that have ordered the 787, including British Airways Plc (OTC: BAIRY) and Virgin Atlantic.

Newspaper wrap-up: Citigroup closing in on deal to sell $12B of its leveraged loans originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 09 Apr 2008 08:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Since 1992, Blackstone (NYSE: BX) has been a big player in the real estate business, striking over 200 deals amounting to about $103 billion. Some of its transactions include Hilton ($26.9 billion), Equity Office Properties Trust ($38.6 billion) and Trizec Properties, Inc. ($9.2 billion).

Well, it looks like Blackstone is ready for more dealmaking as the firm has raised $10.9 billion for its next fund (Blackstone Real Estate Partners VI).

But isn't there a credit crunch? That's true. What's more, there are signs of problems in the commercial real estate sector.

However, it looks like Blackstone is going to focus on global markets. Something else: with the dislocations in the U.S. financial markets, there may be some good valuations.

A key advantage with Blackstone is that it has leverage across a large portfolio of existing real estate, as well as operating companies. In other words, I suspect the firm will have little trouble putting the billions to work.

In today's trading, Blackstone's stock is up 2.58% to $16.29.

Tom Taulli is the author of various books, including The Complete M&A Handbook and The Edgar Online Guide to Decoding Financial Statements. He also operates DealProfiles.com.

Blackstone doubles down on real estate originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 01 Apr 2008 14:24:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

MAJOR PAPERS:

• A potential $90B deal between mining companies Companhia Vale Do Rio Doce (NYSE: RIO) and Xstrata has hit a number of snags that could possibly end talks, reported the Wall Street Journal, including that Xstrata shareholder Glencore International, which has agreements to market a large part of what Xstrata's mines, wants to expand that to include Vale products besides iron ore.
• According to people familiar with the matter, bids for Australian retail-property giant Centro Properties are expected from The Blackstone Group LP (NYSE: BX) and General Electric Company's (NYSE: GE) GE Real Estate, among others, the Wall Street Journal reported.

• Montreal-based Gildan Activewear Inc (NYSE: GIL) recently paid $135M for V.I. Prewett & Son, a supplier of private label socks to large retailers such as Wal-Mart Stores Inc (NYSE: WMT). Gildan expects socks to add about $200M in annual revenue, equal to about 20c a share, according to "The New America" column in Investor's Business Daily's.
• A strike at a key auto parts supplier has forced General Motors Corporation (NYSE: GM) to shut down a pickup plant in Pontiac, the Associated Press reported. The plant will stop production today due to the strike against the parts supplier, American Axle and Manufacturing Holdings Inc (NYSE: AXL), over a contract dispute.

Newspaper wrap-up: Vale, Xstrata talks at an impasse originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 28 Feb 2008 08:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

The stock price of Blackstone (NYSE: BX) continues to languish, close to an all-time low. No doubt, Wall Street knows that the private equity game has gone into a deep freeze.

Yet Blackstone has been around since the 1980s and certainly understands how to deal with market cycles. Right now, the firm is looking at distressed investing opportunities as well as deals in emerging markets.

And there's something else, though it hasn't gotten much buzz: Blackstone is getting traction with its investment banking division, according to a piece in FinancialNews.com.

In fact, Blackstone is a financial advisor for Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) on its $44.6 billion buyout offer for Yahoo! (NASDAQ: YHOO). This is definitely a marquee assignment - and could be a nice fee generator. Blackstone is also an advisor to Reuters in its merger with Thomson.

Continue reading Blackstone: The next big investment bank?

Blackstone: The next big investment bank? originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 13 Feb 2008 15:15:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

The Blackstone Group (NYSE: BX) shares are trading higher this morning after the company announced that BX will buy leveraged-finance specialist GSO Capital Partners for as much as $930 million. BX said in a statement that it hopes to capitalize on opportunities created by dislocation in the credit markets. The combination of GSO's businesses with BX's debt operations will almost double BX's total assets to more than $21 billion. If you think that the company won't fall by too much in the coming months, then now could be a good time to look at a bullish hedged trade on BX.

After hitting a one-year high of $38.00 in June, the stock hit a one-year low of $17.30 yesterday. BX opened this morning at $18.36. So far today the stock has hit a low of $18.10 and a high of $19.96. As of 10:35, BX is trading at $19.84, up $1.74 (9.9%). The chart for BX bearish and steady.

For a bullish hedged play on this stock, I would consider a June bull-put credit spread below the $15 range. A bull-put credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of put options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. For this particular trade, we will make a 16.3% return in just five and a half months as long as BX is above $15 at June expiration. Blackstone would have to fall by more than 24% before we would start to lose money. Learn more about this type of trade here.

Continue reading Blackstone Group (BX) rises on GSO acquisition

Blackstone Group (BX) rises on GSO acquisition originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 10 Jan 2008 12:10:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.