MOST NOTEWORTHY: Nvidia, Entropic Comm and Cleveland Cliffs were today's noteworthy initiations:
Piper initiated Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) with a Neutral rating and $23 target and believes the rate at which the company gained market share over the past two years is unsustainable. The firm expects EPS deceleration over the next few years.
Piper believes Entropic Comm (NASDAQ: ENTR) is a key benefactor from the general adoption of high definition video consumer goods, as well as from growth in multi-room DVRs. The firm assumed shares with a Buy rating and $10 target.
Cleveland Cliffs (NYSE: CLF) was started with a Buy rating and $135 target at Deutsche Bank. The firm believes CLF is a leveraged play on bulk commodities' momentum.
Blue Nile (NASDAQ: NILE), a leading online retailer of diamonds and jewelry, is recently down $14.64 (or over 27%) to $39.20 in pre-open trading.
NILE management indicated Q1 consumer spending on luxury goods is looking soft, and will likely impact future results.
RBCM has a target price of $55 on NILE. NILE over all option implied volatility of 126 it above its 26-week average of 65 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price movement.
Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com
MOST NOTEWORTHY: UQM Technologies, Blue Nile, NPS Pharmaceuticals, Massey Energy and Hartford Financial were today's noteworthy downgrades:
Merriman downgraded shares of UQM Technologies Inc (AMEX: UQM) to Neutral from Buy after Phoenix Motorcars delayed its electric vehicle manufacturing ramp, as they view the company's Phoenix Motorcars relationship as the primary driver for near-term growth.
Citigroup downgraded shares of Blue Nile Inc (NASDAQ: NILE) to Sell from Hold on valuation as they believe near-term risks outweigh rewards. They see risk to Q3 revenue estimates and their analysis suggests an in-line quarter at best.
NPS Pharmaceuticals Inc (NASDAQ: NPSP) was downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Oppenheimer and to Hold from Buy at Jefferies. Oppenheimer lowered shares following disappointing Gattex data; Jefferies believes the P3 GATTEX results in short bowel syndrome make the chances of successful low-dose approval unpredictable.
Friedman Billings downgraded Massey Energy Company (NYSE: MEE) to Underperform from Market Perform based on valuation, 2008/2009 outlook, spinoff of Patriot Coal appears to be a better investment option, and another blow to mountaintop mining and permit issues.
JP Morgan removed The Hartford Financial Services Group Inc (NYSE: HIG) from their Focus List; however, they believe the company's fundamental outlook remains positive and expects strong Q3 results.
OTHER DOWNGRADES:
Morgan Stanley downgraded EV3 Inc (NASDAQ: EVVV) to Underweight from Equal Weight.
MOST NOTEWORTHY: EMC Corp, Blue Nile, Getty Images and Sonus Networks were today's noteworthy initiations:
EMC Corporation (NYSE: EMC) was initiated with a Buy rating and $24 target at Banc of America as they believe the company's core business is undervalued and should benefit from penetration of new market segments. Deutsche Bank views shares of the stock as fully valued at current levels, starting shares off with a Hold rating and $20 target. Jefferies believes the divergence in valuation of core EMC and majority-held VMWare Inc (NYSE: VMW) creates an attractive entry point. The firm started EMC shares with a Buy rating and $25 target.
CIBC finds shares of Blue Nile (NASDAQ: NILE) fairly valued and sees challenges as competition increases. The firm started shares with a Sector Performer rating.
CIBC also initiated shares of Getty Images Inc (NYSE: GYI) with a Sector Performer rating, as the firm believes the company's earnings visibility is limited while the business model is in transition.
Coverage of Sonus Networks Inc (NASDAQ: SONS) was resumed with an Overweight rating and $8 target at Thomas Weisel. Their checks indicate the company is experiencing increased order activity in 2H07, and they expect an improved Q3 followed by a very strong Q4.
OTHER DOWNGRADES:
Credit Suisse Group (NYSE: CS) was initiated with an Overweight rating at Morgan Stanley.
MOST NOTEWORTHY: The process control sector, R.H. Donnelley, Vonage, Coca-Cola Enterprises and Transocean were today's noteworthy downgrades:
Baird reduced estimates across the board in the process control sector due to lower expectations for North American industrial and residential construction. The firm downgraded Roper Industries (NYSE: ROP), Regal-Beloit Corp (NYSE: RBC) and Baldor Electric (NYSE: BEZ) to Neutral from Outperform and AO Smith Corporation (NYSE: AOS) to Underperform from Neutral.
Goldman downgraded shares of R.H. Donnelley Corporation (NYSE: RHD) to Neutral from Buy after the company updated its 2007 guidance to reflect deteriorating trends in local advertising.
Vonage Holdings Corp (NYSE: VG) was downgraded to Sell from Hold at Soleil due to liquidity concerns.
Coca-Cola Enterprises (NYSE: CCE) was downgraded to Hold from Buy at Deutsche Bank on valuation and mixed near-term trends.
Transocean Inc (NYSE: RIG) was downgraded to Hold from Buy at Gabelli. Even though the deepwater market continues to be strong, the firm is concerned regarding the continuing weakness in the jackup market as well as the limited upside potential due to the company's ships being in use through 2009.
So you need to buy some diamond jewelry, but don't know anything about the market? That's all right. There's a place online that explains shape, cut, color, clarity, carat weight, certification and setting ... and then let's you design your piece right there on the site. It's the largest online diamond retailer in the world.
Blue Nile (NASDAQ: NILE) sells diamond, platinum, gold, pearl, and sterling silver jewelry on web sites based in the United States, the United Kingdom and Canada. Products include settings, wedding bands, earrings, necklaces, pendants, bracelets, and watches. The Blue Nile web sites showcase in-depth educational materials and online tools that place consumers in control of the jewelry shopping process. Prices are significantly below traditional retail. Tiffany (NYSE: TIF) is a major competitor.
The company pleased investors last week, when it reported Q2 EPS of 23 cents and revenues of $72.1 million. Analysts had been expecting 18 cents and $67.1 million. Management also guided Q3 EPS to 13-15 cents (13 cent consensus), Q3 revenues to $66-$67.5 million ($62.7M consensus), FY07 EPS to 94-99 cents (90 cent consensus) and FY07 revenues to $312-$318 million ($306M consensus). The news popped the shares out of a late-July/early August "cup" into the mid-August "handle" of a Cup & Handle formation. The price is now showing signs of completing the pattern with a bullish rise from the right-hand side of the "handle."
Brokers recommend the shares with three "strong buys," one "buy," eight "holds" and two "sells." Analysts see a 27% growth rate through the next year. The NILE Sales Growth rate (26.67%), EPS Growth rate (27.78%), Return on Assets (16.81%), Return on Investment (30.68%), Return on Equity (31.12%) and Revenue per Employee ($1.77M) compare favorably with industry, sector and S&P 500 averages. The stock is one of those used to calculate the S&P 600 SmallCap Index. Over the past 52 weeks, it has traded between $33.05 and $98.50. A stop-loss of $73.75 looks good here.
MOST NOTEWORTHY: AutoZone, Inc (AZO), Blue Nile, Inc (NILE), MetLife, Inc (MET), Analog Devices, Inc (ADI) and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) topped out today's list of noteworthy downgrades:
Citigroup cut AutoZone (NYSE: AZO) to Hold from Buy with a $145 target based on valuation.Gabelli also downgraded shares of AutoZone to Hold from Buy.
Lehman downgraded shares of Blue Nile (NASDAQ: NILE) to Equal Weight from Overweight, citing valuation and competitive concerns from Amazon.com (AMZN), which may look to strengthen their position in the diamond engagement market.
MetLife (NYSE: MET) was cut to Neutral from Buy on valuation.
Analog Devices Inc (NYSE: ADI) was cut by Credit Suisse and JP Morgan to Neutral from Outperform, by Sanders Morris to Neutral from Buy and by Merrill Lynch to Sell from Neutral after the company reported weak Q2 results.
Matrix downgraded Advanced Micro Devices (NYSE: AMD) to Strong Sell from Hold based on the loss of market share to Intel Corp's (INTC) new products...
New York State Attorney General Andrew Cuomo has filed a suit accusing Dell Inc (NASDAQ: DELL) and affiliate Dell Financial Services of deceiving consumers, including fraud, false advertising and deceptive business practices, to increase computer sales, reported the Wall Street Journal (subscription required).
Alan Greenspan signed Allianz's (NYSE: AZ) Pacific Investment Management, known as Pimco, as his first economic consultant client, according to the Wall Street Journal.
Barron's Online's (subscription required) "Inside Scoop" column reported that Blue Nile Inc (NASDAQ: NILE) CEO Mark Vadon sold 250,000 shares and CFO Diance Irvine sold 40,000 shares, with InsiderScore.com's Ben Silverman advising caution on Blue Nile due to the selling.
The Financial Times (subscription required) reported that Citigroup Inc (NYSE: C) shares rose sharply in after-hours trading yesterday after Edward Lampert, the hedge fund manager who controls Sears Holdings Corporation (NASDAQ: SHLD), disclosed he had acquired an $800M stake in Citigroup.
WEBSITES:
TechCrunch.com reported, citing two sources with knowledge of the deal, that News Corporation's (NYSE: NWS) MySpace will acquire Flektor for a price in the $10M-$20M range.
The Wall Street Journal (subscription required) reported that Wal-Mart Stores (NYSE: WMT) is helping to bring eBay Inc's (NASDAQ: EBAY) Skype "to the masses," by selling Skype Internet calling phone gear in the electronics section of its stores.
The Financial Times (subscription required) reported that the Bancroft family, which control a majority of the voting shares of Dow Jones and Company Inc (NYSE: DJ), is split over the idea of meeting with News Corporation (NYSE: NWS) Chairman Rupert Murdoch to discuss his $5B offer for Dow Jones.
According to the Sunday Telegraph, Rio Tinto (NYSE: RTP) has hired Morgan Stanley to help defend itself in the event of an unsolicited takeover approach.
DigiTimes.com reported that the ATI Radeon HD that was just introduced by Advanced Micro Devices Inc (NYSE: AMD) has fallen short of expectations in terms of price, performance and energy efficiency.
MOST NOTEWORTHY: Dow Chemical (DOW), Smart Modular (SMOD), Wolverine World Wide (WWW), Win-Dixie Stores (WINN) and Blue Nile (BLUE) were today's noteworthy initiations:
UBS is positive on the ethylene cycle over the next two years and believes Dow Chemical (NYSE: DOW) can beat 2008 consensus estimates, initiating shares with a Buy rating.
JMP Securities started Smart Modular (NASDAQ: SMOD) with a Strong Buy as a unit volume growth theme without much dependence on commodity memory chip pricing.
Citigroup expects further upside given Wolverine World Wide's (NYSE: WWW) strong portfolio of brands, further growth opportunities through line extensions and international growth. The firm started Wolverine World Wide with a Buy rating and $33 target.
Winn-Dixie Stores (NASDAQ: WINN) was started with a Market Perform rating, citing low levels of profitability and unproven ability to drive sustainable profitable sales.
American Technology believes the valuation of Blue Nile (NASDAQ: NILE) leaves little room for upside, despite a highly attractive business model and strong fundamentals, and started shares with a Sell rating and $45 target...
Bidz.com, an online auction site for jewelry, filed for its IPO about a year ago.
Yet, the deal never got traction and the company withdrew its offering this week. Interestingly enough, the company said the reason is that it could not get some of its shareholders to agree to a lock-up.
To me, this is kind of strange. Lock-ups are normal in IPOs. Basically, they prevent shareholders from selling their stock for a period of time (usually six months after the offering).
And, even when a lock-up expires, there are usually continuing restrictions on selling stock (such as during black-out periods and so on).
OK, so if Bidz.com's shareholders are very interested in selling their stock, how does canceling the offering help things?
I really don't know.
But, given the intense competition that Bidz.com faces -- such as from eBay (NASDAQ: EBAY), uBid, Blue Nile (NASDAQ: NILE) and so on -- I have to suspect there are other reasons for canceling the offering.
Tom Taulli is the author of various books, including the Complete M&A Handbook and the EDGAR-Online Guide to Decoding Financial Statements.
MOST NOTEWORTHY: Sirius Satellite Radio (SIRI) and Cheesecake Factory (CAKE) were two notable companies on the downgrade list today:
Bear Stearns downgraded Sirius Satellite Radio Inc. (NASDAQ:SIRI) to Underperform from Outperform following the company's lowered subscriber guidance, while Morgan Joseph downgraded Sirius to Hold from Buy;
Merriman downgraded Cheesecake Factory Inc. (NASDAQ:CAKE) to Sell from Neutral, citing slowing unit growth rates and concerns that Grand Lux Cafe is not a true second concept for the company.
OTHER DOWNGRADES:
Blue Nile Inc. (NASDAQ:NILE) was downgraded to Strong Sell from Buy at Matrix USA, citing slowing sales and narrowing margins; they also see downside to its $26 intrinsic value.
Wachovia downgraded Schlumberger Ltd. (NYSE:SLB) to Market Perform from Outperform on valuation.
AG Edwards downgraded American Express Co. (NYSE:AXP) to Hold from Buy, based on valuation and concerns of 2007 consumer spending.
MOST NOTEWORTHY: ConocoPhillips (COP) and Starbucks (SBUX) were two notable companies on the upgrade list today:
Deutsche Bank upgraded ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP) to Buy from Hold with an $80 target, citing expectations for a reduction in spending and a shift towards share buybacks; additionally,
Starbucks Corp. (NASDAQ:SBUX) was upgraded to Buy from Neutral with a $42 target at UBS, citing valuation.
OTHER UPGRADES:
Wachovia upgraded the Healthcare REIT Sector to Market Weight from Underweight, citing decreasing interest rate trends and more positive trends of individual stocks in the sector.
RBC Capital Markets upgraded Blue Nile Inc. (NASDAQ:NILE) to Outperform from Sector Perform with a $40 target, citing benign trends on both diamond and keyword pricing, efficiencies in marketing, share buybacks and valuation.
Goldman Sachs upgraded Vodaphone PLC (NYSE:VOD) to Buy from Neutral on valuation.
The deals and general craziness of Black Friday have already been well-covered in this space, so I thought it might be interesting to turn your attention to the actual stock reactions. My intentions were simple enough (but aren't they always?): grab a list of retail stocks and calculate the returns from the close on Wednesday, November 22, through this morning. Sorting the list would give a quick (but early) overview of how the Street was reacting to the "day."
I have ample data manipulation tools at my disposal, so I figured this to be an easy task. What I didn't count on was not being able to find what I considered to be a satisfactory list of retail stocks. The lists I found were either too broad or too narrow. I wanted the usual suspects like Best Buy (NYSE:BBY), Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. (NYSE:WMT), and Gap (NYSE:GPS), while also picking up some of the smaller players like Bebe Stores (NASDAQ:BEBE) and Chico's FAS (NYSE:CHS). Additionally I wanted to capture some of the brands like Crocs (NASDAQ:CROX) and dELiA*s (NASDAQ:DLIA), while excluding consumer goods producers and fast food restaurants.
Unable to find a list that suited my (admittedly arbitrary) desires, I began to handpick names and compile a list of 72 stocks. The graph below shows the top and bottom performing stocks through noon today.
Blue Nile (NASDAQ:NILE), Pier One (NYSE:PIR), and Coldwater Creek (NASDAQ:CWTR) are the weakest stocks, while Lowe's (NYSE:LOW), American Eagle Outfitters (NASDAQ:AEOS), and Jo-Ann Stores (NYSE:JAS) are the strongest.
As you can infer from the graph, the bulk of the returns are flat to lower as two of the "best performing" stocks, Aeropostale (NYSE:ARO) and Limited Brands (NYSE:LTD), show a loss. In other words, buying just ahead of Black Friday doesn't seem like it would have been a good short-term trading strategy. Going forward though, I would expect to see some stocks distinguish themselves and separate from the pack. With my list now created (and saved!) it should be much easier to track. If there is interest in this, I can post periodic updates.
.gif){kind=logo}
MOST NOTEWORTHY: Nvidia, Entropic Comm and Cleveland Cliffs were today's noteworthy initiations:
Blue Nile
.gif){kind=logo}
.gif){kind=logo}
had been expecting 18 cents and $67.1 million. Management also guided Q3 EPS to 13-15 cents (13 cent consensus), Q3 revenues to $66-$67.5 million ($62.7M consensus), FY07 EPS to 94-99 cents (90 cent consensus) and FY07 revenues to $312-$318 million ($306M consensus). The news popped the shares out of a late-July/early August "cup" into the mid-August "handle" of a Cup & Handle formation. The price is now showing signs of completing the pattern with a bullish rise from the right-hand side of the "handle.".gif){kind=logo}
.gif){kind=logo}
Serious Money: How 'Stable' after 345 DJIA drop? -- CB, DIS, JNJ, TEVA & XEL
Closing Bell: Dow plunges amid grim economic news; AIG, CIEN, LM, TEX decline, WMT gains
Is BT's offer to save Britain's red phone boxes for £500 fair?
