In flying, going into a flat spin is about the worst thing that can happen to a pilot. As the aviation spec books say: "It is very difficult to recover from a flat spin because there is little or no smooth airflow over the control surfaces."
Well, the Big Three are just about there. Experts predict that December will be another tough month [subscription] for the domestics in their home market. Sales should be particularly rough for Ford Motor Company (NYSE:F). General Motors Corporation (NYSE:GM) and DaimlerChrysler (NYSE:DCX) are expected to be little better than flat compared to December of last year. Toyota and Honda may well have more market share gains.
According to the conventional wisdom in the Motor City, part of the solution to the problem is cutting back on fleet sales and large incentives. This may drive down unit volume but each car sold should yield a better margin. The US car companies may end up being smaller but at least modestly profitable. Or so the theory goes.
The real question for Wall Street is whether any of the three firms can surprise the markets by getting its share and operating margins move. Ford and GM stocks probably have a poor 2007 factored in, with dropping market share and large cost cuts.
But if everything happened as forecast, no one would ever make any money in the market. There would be no surprises. The market would be omniscient and completely efficient.
The only company that would seem to have the management to pull off real product and sales improvement is GM. Self-proclaimed car wizard Bob Lutz has been the company's Vice Chairman. He is the "car man" at GM, and designing new, successful cars falls on him.
Lutz is engineering the launch of new SUVs and cars for brands like Chevy. If he works some magic, GM could be the car company surprise of 2007. If not, he's 74 and can retire and fly his collection of airplanes.
Douglas A. McIntyre is a partner at 24/7 Wall St.