Bob Stovall, currently of Wood Asset Management, popularized the Super Bowl stock market indicator, which says that if an old NFL team -- one that was part of the original NFL prior to the 1970 merger of the NFL and AFL -- wins the Super Bowl, the market will rise that year. Stovall claims that this indicator has correctly predicted the direction of the Dow Jones Industrial Average almost 80% of the time.

This year, the indicator pits two old NFL teams against each other. The Bears facing the Colts marks the seventh time that two old NFL teams have faced off in the big game. The six previous times that's happened, the Dow has gone up every time, posting an average gain of 18%.

I've commented on this indicator in the past and agree with those who find it a curious coincidence. But as a New England Patriots fan, I am not now in the mood to contemplate the certainty that an old NFL team will win the Super Bowl next month. When the Patriots were up 21-3 in the second quarter, I was optimistic. But I will admit to fearing a turning point when I saw how the Colts -- which moved to the AFC when the NFL and AFL merged in 1970 -- were able to score right before the end of the first half.

After correctly predicting the market 90% of the time in the Super Bowl's first 31 years, the indicator has had some trouble in recent years. It failed in 2004 after the Dow gained following the Patriots victory over the Carolina Panthers. And the indicator's had only two clean wins in the last nine games. In fact, two of the market's best years followed wins by the AFL-born Denver Broncos over old NFL teams in 1998 and 1999.

I don't believe the Dow will rise 18% this year. But I will be rooting for the Bears!

Peter Cohan is President of Peter S. Cohan & Associates, a management consulting and venture capital firm, a Professor of Management at Babson College, and editor of The Cohan Letter.