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Earnings preview: Will Disney deliver the magic?

Disney (NYSE: DIS) will be reporting earnings for the fiscal first quarter Tuesday after the market close. There shouldn't be any growth in the bottom line. Of course, no one should be surprised by that. After all, this is Disney we're talking about, a company which provides goods and services that can easily be cut out of any consumer budget. Remember, conservation of cash is becoming quite the fad.

According to this source, Disney may earn $0.52 per share.That would represent a contraction of $0.11, or 17%. The big question is whether or not Disney will miss. If it does, investors won't be happy, because it'll be the second miss in a row. Wall Street was previously accustomed to seeing the Mouse religiously beat the analysts at their holy game. But Q4 changed the story.

Continue reading Earnings preview: Will Disney deliver the magic?

'The Day the Earth Stood Still' did not obliterate my expectations

I had high hopes for News Corp.'s (NYSE: NWS) remake of one of my favorite sci-fi films from the 50s, The Day the Earth Stood Still. I'm not sure what everyone else was thinking, but I figured the film would take in at least $50 million at the opening weekend.

Unfortunately, according to early estimates at Boxofficemojo, Earth could only scare up around $31 million in its first three days at domestic theaters. In fact, compared to last year's I Am Legend from Time Warner (NYSE: TWX), which came out at about the same time, and was another remake of a famous cult sci-fi flick as well, it performed poorly as Legend, starring Will Smith, grossed $77 million in its debut weekend.

Keanu Reeves starred as the alien Klaatu in Earth. One has to wonder how the box-office dynamic would have changed if Will Smith was in the role. Of course, maybe the movie would have been more expensive to make (although I'm sure Reeves doesn't come cheap, either). I heard great word on the remake from a friend of mine who saw it over the weekend on an IMAX (NASDAQ: IMAX) screen and really enjoyed it. He was a bit surprised when I suggested that the film only pulled in around $30 million.

Continue reading 'The Day the Earth Stood Still' did not obliterate my expectations

I can't believe 'Four Christmases' is #1 again

According to Boxofficemojo, holiday cheer is currently ruling the silver screen. Time Warner's (NYSE: TWX) Four Christmases was number one at domestic theaters this past weekend with an estimated haul of $18 million. This is the movie's second weekend out, and it's the second time that it captured the top slot. What gives? Seriously. Is the movie that good? I expressed similar sentiment last week about the flick. I guess congratulations are in order for Time Warner and its marketing machine.

And I continue to be surprised by Summit Entertainment's Twilight. The teen phenomenon doesn't seem as phenomenal to me anymore. It came in second over the weekend, and its cumulative gross now stands at slightly under $140 million. Is it me, or were you thinking that Twilight would have snared over $200 million by now?

And just to prove that all my expectations are being turned upside down, let me say that I thought Disney's (NYSE: DIS) Bolt would have surely made it past the century mark by its third weekend at the multiplex. Not even close. Right now, Bolt has close to $80 million in its dog bowl (hey, I had to come up with one goofy pun, right?). By comparison, DreamWorks Animation's (NYSE: DWA) Madagascar: Escape 2 Africa, which is distributed by Viacom (NYSE: VIA), has grossed about $165 million after its fifth weekend at bat.

Continue reading I can't believe 'Four Christmases' is #1 again

'Twilight' not tops over Thanksgiving holiday -- surprised?

Did anyone see this coming? Honestly, I didn't think that Time Warner's (NYSE: TWX) Four Christmases, starring Vince Vaughn and Reese Witherspoon, would be the number-one movie over the five-day Thanksgiving time period. According to preliminary data at Boxofficemojo, the holiday flick took in more than $46 million at domestic theaters for the Wednesday-through-Sunday frame. I've seen the ad campaign for Christmases, and I have no intention of taking in a screening of it. I guess it was the right product at the right time.

Summit Entertainment's Twilight came in second with $39 million. Considering how hyped up this one was, and how much of an ardent following it seems to possess, frankly, I'm surprised. Where were all the teens to push this to the top of the heap? They were certainly available to pack the theaters. And those who saw it during its debut weekend had ample opportunity to engage a repeat viewing or two. Still, at a reported budget of about $37 million, the project should be profitable for Summit Entertainment (I wish I knew how much was being spent on marketing, though). It's total take so far is approaching $120 million.

Bolt from Disney (NYSE: DIS) was third with $36 million. So far, its total gross stands at almost $67 million. I'm disappointed that the cartoon isn't closer to $100 million by now. I mean, this is the Disney brand we're talking about. Plus, Bolt could be considered a test of both John Lasseter's hit-making skill and of the value of the Pixar purchase (as I alluded to in a previous piece). I expected more from this one, and I'm sure Disney execs were counting on a higher gross by this point as well (no matter what they will say in public).

Continue reading 'Twilight' not tops over Thanksgiving holiday -- surprised?

'Twilight' flies to the top of the box office

On Saturday of this past weekend, I was discussing the domestic box-office potential of Summit Entertainment's Twilight with a friend of mine (we didn't discuss the ranking potential since one didn't need to be a clairvoyant to see a first-place showing in the film's immediate future).

I initially proffered a $100 million take in terms of a prediction, but then backed down and decided that $80 million might be more like it. I wasn't sure if Twilight, even with all its hype, could possibly propel itself to a number that was recorded in three digits. Well, in an overall sense, I was completely wrong. Although the movie didn't make $100 million, I still obviously thought that it was stronger than it turned out to be.

According to published estimates from Boxofficemojo at the time of this writing (final numbers are due later), Twilight pulled in around $70 million. Don't get me wrong, that's a big take, and the movie did beat Sony's (NYSE: SNE) Quantum of Solace, which came in second. But, according to the daily estimates, the Friday-through-Sunday numbers show a decidedly negative trend.

It's interesting, too, because when I saw the $35 million Friday figure, I really thought that something higher than $70 million would be the end result. On Saturday, however, Twilight's take dropped over 40% when compared to its opening day, and on Sunday, the drop was almost 35% compared to Saturday.

Continue reading 'Twilight' flies to the top of the box office

More than a quantum of success for James Bond and DreamWorks Animation

I think we all knew which film would come out on top this past weekend. Sony's (NYSE: SNE) new James Bond adventure, Quantum of Solace, grossed an estimated $70 million at domestic theaters over the last three days according to Boxofficemojo. Excellent showing, Jimbo. As far as I'm concerned, though, I think you have to give the number-two film even more credit.

DreamWorks Animation (NYSE: DWA) and its distributor, Viacom (NYSE: VIA), need to be given major kudos for their work on Madagascar: Escape 2 Africa. The first Madagascar took in about $193 million in total at the domestic box office back in 2005. It was released during the summertime. The sequel is definitely going to hit $200 million. This past weekend it took in roughly $36 million, and its total stands at approximately $118 million. With the Thanksgiving holiday still to come, I figure there will be plenty of business for DreamWorks Animation's cartoon.

The wild card here is Disney's (NYSE: DIS) Bolt project. That one will do well, judging by the commercials I've seen so far. How much thunder will it steal from the second Madagascar when it is released this Friday? A lot, I think. Still, I'll keep to my $200 million prediction. I believe there will be enough discretionary dollars left for both cartoons.

Continue reading More than a quantum of success for James Bond and DreamWorks Animation

DreamWorks Animation's 'Madagascar' sequel is #1 ... and the stock?

Without a doubt, DreamWorks Animation (NYSE: DWA) really nailed it with its latest computer-cartoon sequel, Madagascar: Escape 2 Africa. According to estimates at Boxofficemojo, the film, which is distributed by Viacom (NYSE: VIA), was number one at the box office over the weekend at domestic theaters.

That was expected. But I have to give kudos to the studio's marketing department for improving the previous film's opening weekend. Madagascar, which was released in May 2005, took in $47 million during its opening weekend. As of this writing, Escape 2 Africa has been credited with about $63 million. Considering that this isn't the summertime, I thought the sequel's debut performance was pretty cool.

And here's another equally cool fact: if the estimates hold, then Escape 2 Africa's first-weekend take will be slightly higher than Kung Fu Panda's opening weekend of $60.2 million. You've got to call that a success. Disney's (NYSE: DIS) Pixar brand definitely better take notice, especially if DreamWorks Animation can consistently put out blockbusters during both the summer and fall.

Continue reading DreamWorks Animation's 'Madagascar' sequel is #1 ... and the stock?

Disney's future animated projects -- will they succeed under Lasseter?

Look out, DreamWorks Animation (NYSE: DWA) -- your arch enemy, Disney (NYSE: DIS), wants to be king of animation at the cinema over the next few years. Actually, I suppose other companies who produce animation, such as Time Warner (NYSE: TWX), News Corp. (NYSE: NWS), and Viacom (NYSE: VIA), should watch out as well.

According to a Disney press release, ten cartoons will be released through 2012. The lineup sounds pretty impressive. We'll be seeing the third Toy Story movie in the summer of 2010, and two years later, audiences will be revving up for a Cars sequel. During the holiday season of 2011, a Pixar fairy tale called "The Bear and the Bow" will be weaving its magic (hopefully) in the multiplexes, which is interesting, because during the summer of that same year, Pixar will be releasing something called "newt", so fans will get two Pixar properties three years from now. Other animated projects include Bolt, which will use the voice talents of John Travolta and Miley Cyrus, and The Princess and the Frog.

Whew, there was a lot of cool intellectual properties in that press release, and as a Disney shareholder, I am excited at the prospects. But this isn't just about a bunch of cartoons, my friends -- not at all. This is a huge test for Bob Iger. Was he correct in spending billions to acquire Pixar and its talent trust, specifically John Lasseter? Mr. Lasseter, the chief creative officer for both Walt Disney Animation and Pixar Animation Studios, has a lot of pressure weighing down upon his shoulders. Not sure if he would actually admit that, but he does. He's the man who's supposed to see Disney's animation assets into the future, to bring Disney's animation brand back to prominence. Many people thought that Disney was losing its way in terms of traditional animation; to add insult to injury, some were questioning whether Pixar, when it wasn't part of Disney proper, was what Disney used to be -- innovative in its creativity, obsessed with quality, and driven to provide a moving experience for animation fans whenever they sat before the silver screen.

So, we'll see whether those billions invested in the Pixar acquisition truly will reap stellar returns on invested capital. It will be the performance of the non-Pixar films that will tell the tale.

Disclosure: I own shares of Disney; positions can change at any time.

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Last updated: November 10, 2009: 01:53 AM

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