Bonds posts
FeedPosted Jan 20th 2011 5:00PM by Gary Shilling (RSS feed)
Filed under: China
Editors note: Economist Gary Shilling has agreed to share with BloggingStocks his 18 investment strategies for 2011. But he will only be revealing them a little at a time, over the next few weeks, so check back often!
My investment strategies for 2011 are driven by my forecasts for the economies and financial markets here and abroad. In my view, the overarching reality that will dominate 2011 and, indeed, the next decade or so is financial deleveraging, as spelled out in my new book, The Age of Deleveraging: Investment strategies for a decade of slow growth and deflation, which was published in November 2010 by John Wiley & Sons.
Continue reading Gary Shilling's Investment Strategies for 2011
Posted Dec 9th 2010 4:40PM by Jason Raznick (RSS feed)
The activity in the Treasury market over the last couple of days has been eye opening to say the least. Bonds have been absolutely crushed, and the yield on the 10-Year note has exploded through the 3% level to 3.27%. On a very short-term basis, this move looks to be too much too soon, and Treasuries appear to be oversold. On a longer-term basis, this market may implode if credit and inflation concerns creep into the picture down the road -- not an unlikely outcome.
Observers are pointing to a number of factors that are causing yields to rise. Some market participants are viewing this development as an indicator that investors are beginning to price in more robust growth going into 2011. This would be a good thing. If this is in fact the case, a major stock market move could occur in very short order.
Continue reading Bonds to Bounce Back?
Posted Dec 7th 2010 4:00PM by Joseph Lazzaro (RSS feed)
Filed under: Federal Reserve, Financial Crisis

To say that the financial crisis era has been riddled with half-truths, distortions, and outright falsehoods regarding the unprecedented public policies designed to maintain stable, liquid credit markets and help stimulate the U.S. economy, would be an understatement. Moreover, investors need to disabuse themselves of them if they hope to make informed, balanced, and prudent investment decisions.
One such misnomer concerns the categorization of quantitative easing.
As U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke took pains to clarify Sunday, during his CBS
'60 Minutes' interview, the Fed is most certainly not 'printing money.'
A monetary policy of printing money would involve adding money to the financial system that chases the same amount of goods. That can and typically does lead to higher inflation.
Continue reading Fed's QE2 is a Bridge to Normal Credit Markets
Posted Sep 22nd 2010 4:00PM by Joseph Lazzaro (RSS feed)
Filed under: Federal Reserve

At its
September meeting, the U.S. Federal Reserve indicated that (in a nutshell) it knows the economic expansion has slowed, it sees downward price pressure (as opposed to pricing power) in the economy, and it is prepared to take action, if necessary, to both stimulate the economy and fight deflation.
Investors want to know what form would additional quantitative easing, or 'QE2' as the business media calls it, take?
Most likely, it would take the form of additional asset purchases by the Fed, but don't rule out a creative, new tactic by Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke.
Continue reading Is the Fed's 'QE2' About to Leave the Port?
Posted Aug 28th 2010 10:30AM by Ted Allrich (RSS feed)
Filed under: Comfort Zone Investing
When John D. Rockefeller was asked how much money was enough, he replied: "A little bit more." If you're looking to make a little bit more on your investments, here are places to find extra cash. Unfortunately, rates are very low and the emphasis has to be on "little" rather than "more."
Please note: none of these stocks or funds are recommended as buys. They may, however, be a good place to start research.
Continue reading Comfort Zone Investing: How Much Money Is Enough?
Posted Aug 17th 2010 5:00PM by Joseph Lazzaro (RSS feed)
Filed under: Market Matters
On top of the dot-com, NASDAQ, housing, oil, and commodity bubbles, add another, potential ephemeral rise: a bond bubble.
Could a bond bubble, or at least a U.S. bond bubble, occur? Indeed it could, and here's how it might appear.
Institutional investors, flush with cash, are unable to profitably deploy capital in stock-based (or comparable equity-based) investments, due to unattractive projected returns, stemming from the slow, uneven U.S. and global recoveries.
Continue reading Is the U.S. Experiencing a Bond Bubble?
Posted Jul 26th 2010 5:00PM by Joseph Lazzaro (RSS feed)
Filed under: Forecasts

Paraphrasing the great Mark Twain, if you don't like the stance of institutional investors, just wait a while.
Case in point: Investor sentiment toward the United States' large budget deficit and national debt.
A scant month ago, the talk was of bond vigilantes turning their wrath on the U.S., from Greece, Spain, Portugal and the rest of Europe's debt-plagued nations -- a predicament that would force interest rates up in the world's largest economy.
Continue reading Flight-to-Safety Pushes U.S. Interest Rates Lower
Posted Jul 22nd 2010 4:30PM by Joseph Lazzaro (RSS feed)
Filed under: Currency

On the cusp of stress tests for Europe's banks, the continent may have already passed a major stress test -- one for the euro currency, Bloomberg News
reported Thursday. A scant two months ago, the dominant concern among institutional investors was not the return on their investment in European government bonds, but the return
of their investment.
Institutional investors drove up interest rates for debt-plagued nations Greece, Spain, Portugal, Italy, and Ireland, and banker-to-banker distrust increased.
Continue reading Has the Euro Passed Its Own Stress Test?
Posted Jul 17th 2010 9:00AM by Connie Madon (RSS feed)
Filed under: International Markets, Economic Data, Headline News, Federal Reserve, Financial Crisis

In May,
net long-term inflows into the United States fell to $35.4 billion from April's $81.5 billion. Foreigners bought only $14.9 billion in May, down from $76.4 billion in April. China, in particular, cut its treasury holdings by $43.5 billion to $867.7 billion. Japan, the second largest holder reduced its treasury stash by $8.8 billion to $786.7 billion.
This one is disturbing. Official or government investors were net sellers of $38.8 billion, a record. Private investors bought net $56.2 billion.
Continue reading Foreigners Bought Fewer Long-Term U.S. Securities in May
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