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Analyst initiations: GSIT, ARRY and CLR

MOST NOTEWORTHY: GSI Technology, Array Biopharma and Continental Resources were today's noteworthy initiations:
  • Merriman believes GSI Technology Inc (NASDAQ: GSIT) is positioned to benefit as growing bandwidth demand and increasingly complex protocols drive the need for faster and higher density memory in networking equipment. The firm started shares with a Buy rating.
  • Array Biopharma Inc (NASDAQ: ARRY) was assumed with an Outperform rating at William Blair. The firm thinks the company's pipeline contains significant value, which will be catalyzed over the next 12-18 months by continued clinical progress and potential partnerships.
  • Continental Resources Inc (NYSE: CLR) was initiated with a Buy rating and $30 target at Jefferies, and points to the company's double-digit growth and strong reserve growth potential.
OTHER INITIATIONS:

Boston Beer (SAM) posts frothy earnings

Boston Beer (NYSE: SAM) reported earnings after the bell today. While it seems like the stock should be lower because the company missed EPS estimates (reported 46 cents per share vs. 58 cents per share consensus), there's much more to the story than first meets the eye.

First of all, Boston Beer didn't really miss EPS estimates if you exclude capitalized brewery costs related to the Massachusetts brewery project, which essentially serves as a write-off and thus is considered a one-time charge. These costs amounted to 14 cents per share and, when backed out, the EPS figure rises to 60 cents per share -- 2 cents better than consensus.

More importantly for Wall Street, the company raised its full year guidance to $1.42-$1.70 per share -- around the consensus estimate of $1.61 per share and above prior guidance which peaked at $1.55 per share. On all of this news, the stock is up around 2% so far in after-hours trading.

This is a very interesting company. Its primary brands Twisted Tea and Samuel Adams are becoming increasingly popular among consumers who are willing to pay up for quality beer. But at more than $45 per share, with earnings power of roughly $1.60 per share this year, I think the multiple is too high. I'd much rather pay $50 per share for Anheuser Busch (NYSE: BUD), a company that has earnings power of more than $2.80 per share for this year, in my opinion. Even if the growth rate is significantly slower, I believe the spread between the multiples will likely collapse -- either Anheuser Busch is drastically undervalued, Boston Beer is significantly overvalued, or a little bit of both.

Analyst downgrades: APPB, NT, NTAP and SAM

MOST NOTEWORTHY: CheckFree (CKFR), Talbots (TLB), SPSS Inc (SPSS), Network Appliance (NTAP) and Pozen Inc (POZN) were today's noteworthy downgrades:
  • Following FiServ's (NASDAQ: FISV) acquisition of CheckFree, Raymond James cut CKFR shares to Market Perform from Strong Buy and Baird downgraded shares to Neutral from Outperform.
  • Talbots (NYSE: TLB) was cut to Sell from Hold at Citigroup based on valuation, continued earnings disappointments, and a lack of earnings visibility.
  • Cowen downgraded shares of SPSS Inc (NASDAQ: SPSS) to Underperform from Neutral citing decelerating growth and poor earnings quality.
  • Bear Stearns cut Network Appliance (NASDAQ: NTAP) to Underperform from Peer Perform on the negative Q1 pre-announcement. Pacific Crest downgraded shares to Sector Perform from Outperform.
  • After Pozen (NASDAQ: POZN) received a second approvable letter for Trexima, shares were downgraded by three firms:
    • To Neutral from Strong Buy at First Albany
    • To Hold from Buy at Jefferies and Lazard...
OTHER DOWNGRADES:
Analyst summaries provided by TheFlyOnTheWall.com (subscription required).

Analyst upgrades 3-14:07: Southwest gets some LUV, raise your glass to Boston Beer Co

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Some of today's most notable upgrades include Qualcomm, Inc (QCOM), Countrywide Financial Corp (CFC), American Eagle Outfitters (AEO) and Chevron Corp (CVX):
  • JP Morgan upgraded Qualcomm, Inc (NASDAQ: QCOM) to Neutral from Underweight, to reflect the company's re-accelerating business fundamentals and positive pre-announcement on Tuesday.
  • Friedman Billings upgraded shares of Countrywide Financial Corp (NYSE: CFC) to Outperform from Market Perform as they believe the company remains among the premiere mortgage originators and will be the ultimate beneficiary of the mortgage market shakeout.
  • Susquehanna upgraded shares of American Eagle Outfitters Inc (NYSE: AEO) to Positive from Neutral based on a strong spring assortment and long-term earnings power from new brand concepts aerie and MARTIN+OSA.
  • Deutsche Bank upgraded shares of Chevron Corp (NYSE: CVX) to Hold from Sell based a backlog of resources that keeps growing and increased pressure on the need for delivery.
OTHER UPGRADES:
  • Lehman upgraded Darden Restaurants, Inc (NYSE: DRI) to Equal-Weight from Underweight to reflect the company's strong management team and what they believe to be "very achievable" guidance.
  • Cadbury Schweppes plc (NYSE: CSG) was upgraded to Neutral from Sell at Goldman Sachs as they believe the company may break up Nelson Peltz acquired a stake in the company.
  • AG Edwards upgraded El Paso Corp (NYSE: EP) to Buy from Hold with a $16 target.
  • Gladstone Capital Corp (NASDAQ: GLAD) was upgraded to Market Perform from Underperform at Wachovia.
  • Gabelli upgraded shares of Boston Beer Company (NYSE: SAM) to Buy from Hold following the strong fourth quarter report.
  • Southwest Airlines Co (NYSE: LUV) and JetBlue Airways Corp (NASDAQ: JBLU) were upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at HSBC.
Analyst summaries provided by TheFlyOnTheWall.com (subscription required).

Analyst downgrades 10/02/06: Apple gets sliced

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Apple Computer, Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL), First Data (FDC) and ASM International (ASMI) top today's extensive downgrade list.

  • Apple was downgraded to Hold from Buy at Citigroup, citing valuation and the unlikely introduction of the new video iPod before the holiday season.
  • First Data was downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at J.P. Morgan based on valuation and expectations of a Q3 miss.
  • CIBC downgraded ASM International to Sector Performer from Sector Outperform based on checks that indicated Intel (INTC) is pushing out adoption of ASMI's atomic layer disposition tool for high-k at 45mn. They note a delay would be positive for Applied Materials (AMAT).

OTHER DOWNGRADES:

  • Due to the change in management and lowered guidance, both Credit Suisse and KeyBanc/McDonald downgraded IT service provider Keane (KEA).
  • ThinkEquity downgraded CryptoLogic (CRYP) to Source of Funds from Accumulate based on the ratification of the Internet gambling bill that will impact earnings.
  • Boston Beer (SAM) was downgraded to Neutral from Overweight on valuation.
  • USA Truck (USAK) was downgraded by Stephens to Underweight from Equal Weight, citing a less certain 2007 trucking environment and the recent stock offering.

Ratings summary provided courtesy of TheFlyOnTheWall.com.

Symbol Lookup
IndexesChangePrice
DJIA-89.2312,801.23
NASDAQ-23.352,903.88
S&P 500-9.311,342.64

Last updated: February 11, 2012: 11:55 AM

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