I didn't think Get Smart was going to come in at number one, but that's exactly what happened, according to Boxofficemojo. The film, distributed by Time Warner (NYSE: TWX), took in an estimated $39 million at domestic theaters. The film, quite frankly, looks horrible, and I don't get the fascination people have with Steve Carell's supposed "comedic talents." I don't really find him funny. Doesn't matter, though, because moviegoers have crowned Carell king of the box-office weekend whether I like it or not.

I'm actually more concerned with the race for second place between Marvel's (NYSE: MVL) The Incredible Hulk and DreamWorks Animation's (NYSE: DWA) Kung Fu Panda. Both are estimated as of this writing to have booked a little more than $21 million in ticket sales. I'm concerned about this because I own shares of Marvel, and I'm disappointed in the movie's box-office performance. As of now, the new Hulk has about $96 million in terms of total gross. The fact that it hasn't scored over $100 million by now, coupled with it experiencing a 60% drop for this weekend compared to its debut weekend, leaves me less than satisfied.

Viacom's (NYSE: VIA) The Love Guru bombed. Looks like you can't always count on stars to deliver the important opening-weekend audience. Are people getting sick of Mike Myers? (Jonathan Berr wondered the same thing.) He was only able to conjure up about $14 million for Viacom shareholders, bringing his film to a fourth-place debut. That's embarrassing for Myers, but unlike Steve Carell, he is genuinely funny (although maybe not so much in this particular film, it seems). News Corp.'s (NYSE: NWS) M. Night Shyamalan movie The Happening grossed around $10 million and came in fifth.

Continue reading Although Steve Carell isn't funny, 'Get Smart' was number one

Although Steve Carell isn't funny, 'Get Smart' was number one originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 23 Jun 2008 10:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

I love summer, not only for the weather, but also for all the movies making their way to the multiplexes. According to this article at Marketwatch, for the first six weeks of the U.S. summer box-office season, the total gross for theatrical movies hit $1.46 billion, a statistic that represents about a 5% increase year-over-year in the comparable period. You can thank hits such as Marvel's (NYSE: MVL) Iron Man and Viacom's (NYSE: VIA) Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull for driving the nice results.

Now, I don't mean to rain on this parade, but I'm afraid I find myself in a similar frame of mind in terms of a piece I wrote back in March about the 2007 movie-business statistics. You see, I always like to look at number of tickets sold as a barometer for the true health of Hollywood. The number of tickets sold increased 1.6% to 206.2 million. The average price of a movie ticket rose 2.9% to $7.08. Now, while I am glad to see an increase this time around in terms of number of tickets sold, I don't find a 1.6% increase terribly exciting. It tells me that the theater industry still needs to convince people that it's fun to get out of the house, away from the giant televisions and the snazzy home-theater systems, and chomp on overpriced popcorn in a dark auditorium. Going to movie theaters is something that, in my opinion, can't truly be replicated in the home. A lot of people don't share that opinion, however.

The challenge for Disney (NYSE: DIS), Time Warner (NYSE: TWX), Sony (NYSE: SNE), and General Electric's (NYSE: GE) Universal is to make people feel that waiting for the DVD shouldn't be the norm. The shared experience of a movie screening is a unique part of culture, and studios need to communicate this fact through their marketing campaigns. I do think there is more work ahead for Hollywood. Focus on the number of tickets sold, that's the big metric.

Disclosure: I own Disney and GE; positions can change at any time.

A summer of success at the box office? originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 19 Jun 2008 14:10:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

IMAX (NASDAQ: IMAX) really missed Wall Street's expectations. In its latest earnings release, issued on Monday, the company said that its net loss per share doubled to $0.25 for the first quarter compared to the 2007 quarter when the net loss was $0.12 per share. Revenues were $23.5 million, a 12% decline.

While that performance is bad enough in itself, it was also below expectations with the bottom line missing by $0.11. Yikes! Revenues were likewise a disappointment. Even with all the snazzy content from studios such as Time Warner (NYSE: TWX), Viacom (NYSE: VIA), Disney (NYSE: DIS) and DreamWorks Animation (NYSE: DWA), IMAX is having a tough time getting its stock out of the single digits. Management is hoping that a stronger slate for the rest of the year will have a positive impact.

Maybe it will, maybe it won't. IMAX is a stock I have no interest in buying. The company sports a negative book value at the moment, and the stock's past performance has been pretty terrible. I have to concede, however, that on a shorter-term period, the stock has been strong -- in fact, it is not too far from a 52-week high.

As one can imagine, many are speculating that IMAX has a great future ahead of it as the company transitions to digital platforms (this article at USATODAY.com provides an excellent summary of the bull argument, as well as issues IMAX has had with financing). Also, I'm sure many are speculating about a potential sale of the company at some point.

Hey, I'm not going to necessarily rain on the long-term thesis for IMAX, but I have to be honest and say that I'd have to see a breakout from here and some better numbers next quarter to even think about starting a position.

Disclosure: I own shares in Disney; positions can change at any time.

IMAX misses by a wide margin -- is there a bullish argument somewhere? originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 13 May 2008 11:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

According to Boxofficemojo, Sony (NYSE: SNE)'s 21 movie was number one over this past weekend at the domestic marketplace, taking in an estimated $15 million. This number may change once the final data comes in, but its worth noting that 21 is doing well for Sony's studio -- the casino movie's total gross so far is around $46 million, and if the numbers hold, this will be the second weekend in the top spot for the picture.

A movie that had a lot of buzz, George Clooney's period-sports comedy Leatherheads, came in second (maybe; I'll get to this in a sec) with $13.5 million. It's distributed by General Electric (NYSE: GE)'s Universal asset, and I have to say that it didn't feel like the movie would top the charts. Nevertheless, it came pretty close, and I have to admit that I thought it was going to totally bomb: didn't look interesting, didn't look like the kind of idea that I'd allocate capital toward, and its marketing campaign didn't seem too thrilling. But since George Clooney was attached to it, I'm sure studio execs were extremely confident. Maybe a fall release would have been better for this one.

And then we have News Corp. (NYSE: NWS)'s Fox, which was perhaps disappointed on the one hand and happy on the other. Nim's Island came in third, and third is almost always a glum spot for a debut rank. But Fox's Dr. Seuss' Horton Hears a Who!, which is still kicking in fourth place, has now grossed approximately $131 million after four weekends. Fox is certainly pleased with that one. I don't know when the company plans on releasing the DVD, but this box-office performance would seem to portend a brisk-selling DVD during the holiday season. However, Nim's Island is estimated right now to have grossed $13.3 million. When the hard stats are in, it could easily displace Leatherheads and take second best for the weekend. Poor George Clooney.

Continue reading George Clooney's 'Leatherheads' tackled by '21'

George Clooney's 'Leatherheads' tackled by '21' originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 07 Apr 2008 09:45:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

For those who love to follow the business of Hollywood -- count yours truly as one of the many -- the following Reuters article contains data of interest. It appears that 2007 was a banner year for Tinsel Town, according to numbers released by the Motion Picture Association of America. Revenues at multiplexes worldwide jumped 4.7% to $26.7 billion. In the United States, the growth was even better -- theaters at home took in $9.6 billion, good for an appreciation rate of over 5%.

But there's another side to the story. Ticket prices, you see, increased 5% in the U.S. This inflationary aspect is what essentially led to the domestic growth, for while approximately 1.4 billion tickets were sold, there was no rise in the number of tickets sold. That should be ultimately disappointing to studios at Disney (NYSE: DIS), News Corp. (NYSE: NWS), TWX (NYSE: TWX), Viacom (NYSE: VIA), Sony (NYSE: SNE), and General Electric's (NYSE: GE) NBC Universal. Oh, and here's another not-so-impressive item: the average cost to produce a film and then promote it came in at nearly $107 million. This statistic represented an increase of 6.3%.

Continue reading Is the movie business really doing that well?

Is the movie business really doing that well? originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 06 Mar 2008 14:43:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.