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One of the top stories on Bloomberg today discusses a problem I have highlighted multiple times in the Ville over the past year: the accelerating decline of Mexico's Cantarell oil field. The latest numbers show Cantarell oil production falling to a 12-year low. I expect the decline in production from Cantarell to only accelerate.

If I am correct, crude oil supply for the United States is going to get tighter in the coming months. Today, we found out Pemex was having problems meeting commitments to Texas refineries due to falling production. I expect this problem to get more press in the future as Cantarell production accelerates to the downside and US refiners are forced to look to an already tight oil market for additional supply.

The Commitment of Traders report comes out today due to the holiday last week. The last COT report for crude oil showed commercials net buyers (first time since February 2007) and one has to wonder why...perhaps commercial traders see the coming collapse in Mexico oil production? I have repeatedly said the COT reports are still bullish for crude and am looking forward to seeing this weeks report when it is released later today.

My favorite energy names continue to be BPZ Energy (AMEX:BZP) and Pacific Rubiales (PEG:CA), both of whom have catalysts in the next month that could move the stocks.

On a housekeeping note, the Hindenburg signal and head and shoulders patterns I highlighted in the S&P and Russell 2000 seem to be playing out. My minimum target on the S&P500 is/was about 1225, which also happens to be in the neighborhood of the 2006 lows.

Crude oil supply tightening originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 07 Jul 2008 16:19:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.