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Posts with tag Brazil

Will the BRIC economies surpass the US?

Perhaps no other economic phenomenon better characterizes this initial decade of the twenty-first century than the development of -- and GDP growth in -- the developing world.

The economies of Brazil, Russia, India, and China -- often referred to as the BRIC economies -- are major reasons why the developing world will grow 6.7% in 2008, far outpacing growth rates in the United States, Europe, and Japan.

New York Times columnist Roger Cohen argues that what we're seeing is not just the development of markets, not just 'the world is flat,' to use the term popularized by his Times colleague Thomas Friedman, but a reversal: the world is upside down. In Cohen's interpretation, the new economic tigers' accomplishments are large, ongoing, and system changing. Moreover, a power shift is occurring from the U.S and Europe to the new engines of growth.

For Cohen, Brazil is the economic model of the age: abundant minerals and crops, investment capital pouring in, a sugarcane-based energy policy, rising personal incomes, and an increasingly prosperous middle class, with plenty of land to mine, to plant, to expand. It is, in many ways, much of what the United States is not in 2008.

Continue reading Will the BRIC economies surpass the US?

U.S. energy policy: An opportunity squandered, a challenge ahead

In light of oil's rise to triple-digit prices, the United States' inability to pass an energy policy aimed at increased efficiency, renewable energy, and energy independence, represents an opportunity squandered -- on two fronts: transportation and power generation.

True, oil has retreated from the $135 range to the $125-128 range, but the nation now faces record-high gasoline/diesel prices, along with high prices for heating oil, natural gas, and coal. As a result, the broad-based disposable income -- so essential for U.S. economic growth -- has been squeezed, with many economists now arguing adequate GDP growth is not possible, if energy prices remain at current levels.

At minimum, the U.S. faces a period of economic and social adjustment -- corporate, public, personal -- as it copes with the brave new world of $4 gasoline ... and that's if gasoline remains in the $4 per gallon range. A variety of scenarios could quickly send gasoline over $5 per gallon and higher in 2009.

Continue reading U.S. energy policy: An opportunity squandered, a challenge ahead

Huge Brazil oil discovery brings no relief from surging oil prices

The price of crude moved to a record above $112 overnight. It seems that speculation, a weak dollar, and concern about demand just keep pushing oil higher.

Now, oil is part of a "good news/bad news" play. Evidence is coming out of Russia that oil production there has peaked. According to the FT, "Russian oil production has peaked and may never return to current levels." By many measures, Russia is the world's second largest oil producer.

That bad news may be offset by a huge oil discovery off the coast of Brazil. The country's state-owned oil company, Petróleo Brasileiro, said it had made a huge discovery off-shore. According to The Wall Street Journal, "the head of Brazil's National Petroleum Agency, Haroldo Lima, said the strike could be one of the world's biggest oil discoveries in decades, containing as much as 33 billion barrels in oil equivalent."

The question now is whether one huge deposit can offset a decline in Russia and a fall-off in oil from other large producers like Mexico. For now, the answer is "no." That's because the Brazil discovery is in deep water. It could take several years to get it completely online. The decline in production in other countries is happening now.

The Brazil discovery brings hope, but no relief, at least no for now.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.

Barron's: BlackRock's CEO looks into the crystal ball

About a year ago, I had a chance to hear a presentation by Laurence Fink, who is the CEO of BlackRock (NYSE: BLK), which is a mega money manager. Simply put, he was a bit concerned about the markets. With the huge amounts of leverage, he thought that investors weren't getting enough premium for the potential risk.

Yes, it was a good call. And the upshot is that BlackRock has been a stellar performer.

Well, now Fink is more sanguine. In fact, in this week's Barron's [a paid publication], there is an interview with him.

What's his take? First of all, he think investors should dip into equities, such as the big caps that benefit from global growth. Some of his choices include: General Electric (NYSE: GE), Monsanto (NYSE: MON), United Technologies (NYSE: UTX) and Boeing (NYSE: BA).

He also likes high-grade mortgage debt. Basically, the spreads are attractive (and seem to account for the risk levels).

Finally, Fink is bullish on overseas markets, especially commodity-based counties like Brazil.

Tom Taulli is the author of various books, including The Complete M&A Handbook and The Edgar Online Guide to Decoding Financial Statements. He also operates DealProfiles.com.

Brazil's Gafisa (GFA) shows that home building can still be a growth business

Readers of this space know that the investment bias is toward large-cap companies with demonstrated business models and a competitive advantage in established markets, preferably with a favorable global trend for support. But every once in while an exception is made for a non-conforming but innovative and promising company, and along these lines Gafisa S.A. looks attractive.

Gafisa S.A. (NYSE: GFA) constructs residential buildings in middle/upper income areas in 35 markets in Brazil. Analysts like Gafisa's huge inventory of land, construction in progress, and finished units, all of which will serve to increase earnings, moving forward.

Further, outstanding mortgage loans in Brazil are only 2% of GDP. That means there's room for the nation's mortgage-based home buyer segment to expand. Meanwhile, lower interest rates in Brazil are providing a tailwind for the nascent, local mortgage market. The First Call F2007/F2008 EPS consensus estimates for GFA are $1.38/$4.18. (Note: Only 1 estimate each year.)

Continue reading Brazil's Gafisa (GFA) shows that home building can still be a growth business

Chasing Value: Anglo American (AAUK) is down...but!

Anglo American logo Among the many investment pontificators you will find in the media, I pride myself on laying everything out on the table, good calls, bad calls and even my unfortunate periodic stupidity. All of my 2008 picks are down to a varying degree, making me look none too smart in the opening weeks of the year.

Among the stocks I like, Anglo Amercican PLC (NASDAQ: AAUK) has gone down from the $30 level where I recommended it to around $25 a share today. Its 52-week low is $23.38, and its high was $38.75. It pays a dividend currently yielding about 2%.

Early this morning, this was reported: Anglo American Enters Into Exclusive Discussions To Acquire Control Of The MMX Minas-Rio And MMX Amapa Iron Ore Projects. AAUK is a partial owner now and seeks full control of these Brazilian copper mines. Under the leadership of Cynthia Carroll, who became chief executive of Anglo American, it has been refocusing its business structure, planning sales of its building material division Tarmac for $6 billion, while it has also been reducing its stake in gold miner AngloGold Ashanti.

There has been a push to get big in copper, and all of the news out of South America supports this theme. Meanwhile MarketWatch reported China now world's largest gold producer; foreign miners at door. China is now producing more gold than South Africa, which has been the top producer since 1905.

Continue reading Chasing Value: Anglo American (AAUK) is down...but!

Brazil's SABESP demonstrates that water always has a market

Readers of this space know that the investment thesis offered here favors large-cap companies with demonstrated business models and who have a competitive advantage in established markets, preferably with a favorable global trend as a support. And along this line, Companhia de Saneamento Basico do Estado de Sao Paolo, or SABESP, is worth an evaluation.

SABESP (NYSE: SBS) is Brazil's largest water company, serving 22.7 million people. SBS provides water via about 6.6 million connections. The company also offers sewage services through about 4.8 million connections and more than 400 treatment plants. The state of Brazil owns a 50.3% stake in SBS.

Analysts really like SBS's leadership position in Sao Paulo water services, and customer growth prospects: the company aims to increase its customer base by 2 million during 2007-2010. Further, Brazil's solid economic growth provides an added macroeconomic tailwind. The Reuters F2007/F2008 EPS consensus estimates for SBS are $4.76/$4.96.

Continue reading Brazil's SABESP demonstrates that water always has a market

Emerging markets may not be the safe haven you thought they were

As concerns over America's economy began to spread in 2007, many investors decided to look overseas for protection. In order to hedge themselves against a possible economic slowdown in the U.S., traders poured money into emerging markets such as India and China, but some are starting to question just how safe these markets will be this year.

Last year, when it looked like the U.S. economy was going to get hit with a weak dollar and nasty housing market, it made sense to look to different markets for protection, but now some are fearing that the problems that are plaguing America will reach a point where they will pull down foreign economies also.

What we have seen in 2008 is a pretty substantial downtrend in some of last year's favorite safe havens. Markets such as Korea, Thailand, Turkey and Brazil have all been hit in the first half of January and are down over 8 percent.

Continue reading Emerging markets may not be the safe haven you thought they were

Petroleo Brasileiro has the economies of scale investors like

Readers of this space know that one argument forwarded here is that in the era of elevated energy prices oil/natural gas companies are likely to remain promising plays for the foreseeable future, baring the discovery of a cheap, widely-available, alternative energy source. And among oil/natural gas companies, Petroleo Brasileiro is worth a review.

Petroleo Brasileiro S.A. (ADR) (NYSE: PBR) is Brazil's largest industrial operation, with oil/gas production, refining and purchasing businesses, and oil/gas transport services.

Analysts like PBR's proven reserves of 15 billion barrels of oil equivalent, 12,900 wells, 16 refineries, 31,000 kilometers of pipeline, and 5,870 gasoline stations.

Continue reading Petroleo Brasileiro has the economies of scale investors like

Chasing Value: Bunge Limited (BG) in name only

Bunge Limited (NYSE: BG) is everywhere on the food chain according to the AOL Money & Finance profile. This includes being the leading global soybean processor, a leading South American fertilizer maker and the world's largest oilseed producer. The stock has hardly taken a breath in its ascent over the last five years. On December 28, 2007, BG closed at $119.03 per share.

Soy is used in so many products as an alternate ingredient and/or vegan-friendly product, with new ones being created every day. This fact alone might make Bunge a growth story, even if world demand for food was not increasing at such a rapid pace.

Over the last year, Bunge leaped 70%; in the last five years, BG has gained 433%. Normally this is not a place I would be looking for a cheap buy. However, its P/E ratio is only 19, which, given its growth chart, it still seems cheap. When we consider its P/S of 0.33 which is cheap, and a small dividend yield of 0.58%, it does seem like a value, that is if demand continues to rise.

I believe it will continue to rise since the rapidly growing global economy is raising the standard of living dramatically for hundreds of millions of "newly minted capitalists" in China, Russia, India, Eastern Europe, Brazil and elsewhere. Improved of at least changing diets are 'feeding demand,' and people are also eating much more.

Continue reading Chasing Value: Bunge Limited (BG) in name only

Serious Money: ADM, Bunge, Potash Corp. -- it's a hungry world

Like never before, the rapidly growing global economy is raising the standard of living dramatically for hundreds of millions of "newly minted capitalists" in China, Russia, India, Eastern Europe, Brazil and elsewhere. They are buying bikes and cars, cell phones and flat-screen televisions, the latest fashions and the latest music. They are also changing their diets and eating much more.

No longer satisfied with your standard fare of starchy rice, potatoes and beans, they have increased their consumption of fish, poultry, beef, and a wider variety of fruits and vegetables, and even alcoholic beverages. Of course they continue to adopt the dubious growth of western fast food restaurants too.

In my pursuit of 2008 value stocks that offer growth opportunities and safety too, I looked for companies that would benefit from these trends. As consumption increases in some of these expanding economies, the following companies have greatly benefited, and they seem postured to continue their growth in the coming years.

Continue reading Serious Money: ADM, Bunge, Potash Corp. -- it's a hungry world

Maybe the global economy isn't so global

Sudden large, negative financial events can disrupt, or at least critique, even the most bedrock economic tenets, let alone recently-percolated conventional wisdom.

On the heels of the housing and credit market crunches, one conventional wisdom item that's currently coming under criticism is the notion of "decoupling" [Subscription required] - the theory that despite a slowing U.S. economy, the European and Asian engines of growth would be sufficient to maintain adequate global GDP growth, The Wall Street Journal reported.

The International Monetary Fund published a chapter in April 2007 entitled "Decoupling the Train," which argued that the U.S.'s mild GDP growth was caused by a housing sector correction. Housing was less global than other commodities, it argued, and hence would not impact the world economy as much.

For example, about two months ago, the IMF projected that global economic growth would slow just slightly in 2008 to 4.8% from 5.2% this year.

Continue reading Maybe the global economy isn't so global

Wal-Mart (WMT) to grow Brazilian segment

WMT logoWal-Mart Stores Inc. (NYSE: WMT) shares are trading higher today after the retail giant announced that it will invest $649 million on 36 new outlets and a distribution center in Brazil. The stores will be built in various formats, including hypermarkets, supermarkets, and wholesale outlets focusing on low-income consumers. If you think that the company won't fall by too much in the coming months, then now could be a good time to look at a bullish hedged trade on WMT.

After hitting a one-year high of $51.44 in June, the stock hit a one-year low of $42.09 in September. WMT opened this morning at $45.27. So far today the stock has hit a low of $45.15 and a high of $45.95. As of 10:50, WMT is trading at $45.69, up 68 cents(1.5%). The chart for WMT looks bullish and steady, while S&P gives the stock a neutral 3 STARS (out of 5) hold rating.

For a bullish hedged play on this stock, I would consider a January bull-put credit spread below the $40 range. A bull-put credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of put options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. For this particular trade, we will make a 4.2% return in just 2 months as long as WMT is above $40 at January expiration. Wal-Mart would have to fall by more than 12% before we would start to lose money.

WMT hasn't been below $42 at all in the past year and has shown support around $42.50 recently. This trade could be risky if the holiday retail season is flat, but even if that happens, this stock could be protected by strong support WMT found around $42 over the past 3 months.

Brent Archer is an options analyst and writer at Investors Observer. At publication time, Brent neither owns nor controls positions in WMT.

Throwing the book at Cisco (CSCO) in Brazil

Cisco Systems (NASDAQ: CSCO), the powerhouse maker of computer-networking equipment, fired an executive charged by Brazilian federal authorities in a tax-evasion probe at the company.

Last month, Cisco said Brazilian authorities raided its offices in Sao Paulo and Rio de Janeiro and seized documents and detained employees. From the sound of what was going on, it seems like there was a complicated fraud scheme being perp'd out of Brazil that benefited Cisco, its Brazilian unit, and a vendor in the country.

How big is this issue? Hard to tell at this point. What we do know is what the Brazilian authorities are alleging. Authorities there claim that the U.S. company evaded 1.5 billion reais ($832 million) in taxes.

The tax hit is relatively small compared to Cisco's $170 billion market cap. The company has a strong balance sheet and this shouldn't be particularly serious, even if the firm had to pay the entire alleged amount. Meanwhile, Brazil has tripled its police staff in a major crackdown against white-collar crime.

What remains to be seen is how big a deal this is for Cisco's entire Brazilian operation, and whether this affects sales and growth going forward. I'm interested to see how well the company communicated their exposure to investors.

Zack Miller is the Managing Editor of IsraelNewsletter.com and a former equity analyst for a leading multinational hedge fund. Author's fund doesn't hold a position in CSCO.

'Real' smart: Supermodel Gisele Bundchen knows her currency baskets

Gisele BundchenBrazilian supermodel Gisele Bundchen earned $33 million in the first six months of the year. And when Bundchen signed on to do commercials for Pantene, she made an an unusual request: She wanted to be payed in the currency of her native Brazil not U.S. dollars. Early reports had said she was being paid in euros, but her manager said she was in fact being paid in real.

According to Bloomberg, "That's turned out to be the better choice. The real has risen 21.3% against the dollar this year, while the euro gained 10.4%. The real is the best performer among the 26 emerging-market currencies tracked by Bloomberg, thanks to burgeoning global demand for Brazil's commodity exports. Only the Canadian dollar has strengthened more among major currencies, up 21.8%. "

What do we make of this? Well perhaps Etrade NASDAQ: ETFC) should hire her to manage its investments -- that is if it can top the pay package Merrill Lynch (NYSE: MER) presents when it offers her the CEO job.

As for me, I'll be asking AOL to pay me in Shekels -- or perhaps wheat futures. If I really want to get rich, I could even ask for China Finance Online (NASDAQ: JRJC) puts.

ALSO SEE: Gisele Bundchen dumps the dollar, demands payment in euros

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Last updated: July 09, 2008: 04:13 AM

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