A word to the wise: Investors should ignore and/or avoid those in the popular press who rush forward with pronouncements about the dollar vis-à-vis the world's other, major currencies.

Sometimes you'll see them on the 24-hour cable news channels at night on FoxNews (NWS), CNN (TWX), and MSNBC (GE). Their research is often simplistic at best, and at times, it's outright wrong.

One common, conventional wisdom articulation concerns the dollar, and it's 'imminent collapse.' Nothing could be further from the truth. But that's the type of flippant conclusion one gets when one uses superficial analysis, as in 'U.S. budget deficit up, U.S. dollar down.'

Investors have probably heard Obama administration officials, like previous Bush administration officials –- and just about every other administration since 1981 -- rattle off the mantra, 'The United States is committed to a strong dollar' even as the dollar continues to weaken. What's going on here?

Well, first: the currency market, long-term, emphasizes actions, not words, and current U.S. public policies do not support the dollar. To strengthen it, the U.S. must cut its trade deficit, eliminate the budget deficit, and get the U.S. economy growing at an adequate rate again.

Is a 'super-currency' – one that could for all intents and purpose replace the dollar as the world's reserve currency – possible?

Well, it is possible, but in this case the aforementioned switch would certainly be super, as it would represent a gargantuan task and adjustment period for members of the global financial system.

What's next for the dollar? Good question. It depends on which set of economic data points you emphasize, or which mindset/narrative you believe is dominant in the currency markets.

After a nearly two-week decline against the world's other, major currencies, the dollar see-sawed with the euro for the upper hand Friday, as dollar bulls and dollar bears each tried to make their case that their view was more supported by current conditions. The dollar strengthened one-half cent versus the euro to $1.4696 and about 1.8 cents versus the British pound to $1.6260 on Friday at mid-day.

Where's the dollar headed from here? Well, if you're in the camp that argues both monetary and fiscal stimulus guarantee rising inflation, the dollar will trend lower in the immediate quarters ahead, and probably for longer.

If you're in the camp that argues that given asset destruction, and massive job lay-offs, pricing power is non-existent, the dollar will hold its own against the world's other major currencies.

The British pound (CME: $BPY) hit $1.60 for the first time in more than half a year this morning, thanks to improved service company sentiment and an increase in mortgage approvals. A rise in consumer confidence in the United States increased risk appetite and lifted the pound, as well.

The news was good enough for a 0.5% gain for the pound against the dollar, a 0.6% increase relative to the euro and 1% against the yen (CME: /JY\M09).

One of our global partners, Britain, is in an economic tsunami. Here are some recent indicators of the damage being done to Britain's economy:

• The annual rate of decline in industrial output has reached an alarming 12%.
• Manufacturing output fell by 6.4% in three month to January, faster than the 4.9% contraction in the quarter ended in December.
• During the last few months, GDP shrunk by 1.5%. The trends are pointing to a 4% decline in 2009. The last time Britain saw such a sharp decline was in 1931, with a fall of 5%.

iShares Barclays Capital Long Term Tr ETF (NYSE: TIP) closed at $102.35. TIP April call option implied volatility is at 10, puts are at 8; below its 6-month average of 13, according to Track Data, suggesting decreasing price risk.

PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Down (NYSE: UDN) is a rules-based index composed solely of short USDX® futures contracts. The USDX® futures contract is designed to replicate the performance of being short the U.S. Dollar against the following currencies: Euro, Japanese Yen, British Pound, Canadian Dollar, Swedish Krona and Swiss Franc. UDN closed at $25.52. UDN May option implied volatility of 20 is below its 26-week average of 25, according to Track Data, suggesting decreasing price movement.

PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Up (NYSE: UUP) is a rules-based index composed solely of long USDX® futures contracts. The USDX® futures contract is designed to replicate the performance of being long the U.S. Dollar against the following currencies: Euro, Japanese Yen, British Pound, Canadian Dollar, Swedish Krona and Swiss Franc. UUP closed at $25.31. UUP May call option implied volatility is at 17, puts are at 21; below its 26-week average of 22, according to Track Data, suggesting decreasing price movement.

Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com.

U.S. stock markets appear to be in free-fall (at least short-term), the federal budget deficit will exceed $1 trillion for at least the next two years, and Congress will likely have to raise the national debt ceiling above $13 trillion -- all negative developments for the dollar.

So what does the greenback do Monday? Of course, it continues to rise -- strengthening about one-half cent versus the euro and more than 2 cents versus the British pound, to $1.2581 and $1.4034, respectively.

On a day when the United States committed up to $2 trillion more in government financing and programs to unlock credit markets -- probably the federal government's largest, one-day implied commitment in history -- the dollar rose against the euro and British pound.

The dollar strengthened 1.2 cents to $1.3821 and a gargantuan 4 cents to $1.4488 versus the British pound. The dollar also rose about one-half cent to $1.1584 versus the Swiss franc.

Now, in theory, increasing dollar commitments by the U.S. government means more dollars in circulation, which means every dollar is worth less -- a sequence that should cause the dollar to fall against the world's other major currencies. Not Tuesday, and really, when you review it, not since the financial crisis took hold in October 2008, so says economist David H. Wang. And the reason is basic: the dollar's status as a reserve currency, and as a safe haven.

The previous U.S. presidential administration preached a great deal about a 'strong dollar policy.'

Unfortunately, almost no actions practiced by the administration supported that goal.

Concerning the federal budget, a decade of deficits has really hurt the dollar's value. A $1.3 trillion tax cut in 2001 ended the balance budget era of the late 1990s, and subsequent increases in defense spending for the Iraq and Afghanistan Wars -- combined with a lack of a tax increase to pay for that additional spending -- soon led to +$200 billion budget deficits. After swelling to $300 billion, the bank bailout and related legislation would push the deficit over $500 billion, according to the Congressional Budget Office, and it's projected to top $1 trillion this year and in fiscal 2010.

The dollar, despite the prospect of back-to-back trillion dollar U.S. budget deficits, continues to hold its own against the world's other major currencies. What's more, provided the fiscal stimulus package is passed, the national debt ceiling will increase to $12.1 trillion from the current $11.3 trillion.

The dollar strengthened about 1.5 cents to $1.2867 versus the euro Wednesday, and rose about 1.4 cents to $1.1586 versus the Swiss franc, while remaining essentially unchanged at 89.62 yen and $1.4490 versus Japan's yen and the British pound.

When financier George Soros makes a play, traders stand up and take notice. In 1992, Soros made $1 billion by selling the British pound.

Recently, he used the same strategy of betting against the pound. However, when the pound traded below $1.40 last Wednesday, Soros decided to cover his short position. The pound has traded up to $1.4256 against the dollar on Friday. As demand for the pound rose, it had the effect of putting pressure on the U.S. dollar.

The U.S. dollar is considered a "safe haven" currency because it is the world's reserve currency. The Dollar Index contract is traded on the New York Board of Trade. It is traded as a single currency but the actual value of the dollar is based on a basket of currencies. What does this mean in actual trading? Traders usually decide to buy or sell a given currency based on the strength or weakness of the underlying economy for that currency. So when we see a headline: "Pound hits 23 year low on Dollar" it means that on a relative basis the pound is weaker than the U.S. dollar.

You could infer from this headline that the British economy is weaker that the U.S. economy and is the reason why the British pound is the weaker currency.

Trading in the currency markets, however, is not always as clear cut as this example. A host of complex variables go into determining a country's currency including the country's political and financial structure, who the leaders of a given country are and most important what is actually happening within that particular country's economy.

These days, the only thing worrying the economists and analysts more than the U.S. economy is the United Kingdom economy.

The U.K.'s situation is worrying currency traders, too. The dollar vaulted 5 cents Tuesday versus the British pound to $1.3890 -- an almost unprecedented move in the currency market -- as traders sensed a deepening recession in the U.K.

The dollar also strengthened 1 cent versus the euro to $1.2940 and 1.2 cents versus the Swiss franc to $1.1422. The dollar was essentially unchanged versus the yen at 90.45 yen.

Currency Trader Andrew Resnick told BloggingStocks Tuesday that with the United Kingdom's decision Monday to allocate an additional $142 billion to support the nation's banks, currency traders "have put the British economy in a time-out chair."