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Rite Aid beats analysts, but not right for me yet

Rite Aid (NYSE: RAD), which competes with Walgreen (NYSE: WAG), CVS Caremark (NYSE: CVS), and Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT), saw a big increase in volume on Wednesday after it reported earnings for the first quarter. In fact, as Douglas McIntyre observed, shares of Rite Aid were up 5% at one point during yesterday's session. However, the shares ended up losing their green status by the close of trading. Rite Aid actually lost 3% when all was said and done. What does it all mean?

Well, Rite Aid did beat analyst forecasts by a wide margin. The call was for a loss of 13 cents per share. Rite Aid lost only 6 cents per share once adjustments are made. Revenues dipped a little over 1%, and same-store sales, after excluding the effect of the Brooks Eckerd acquisition, increased 1.5%. Interestingly, the mix of this increase is as follows: the pharmacy sales went up 3.1% on a comparable basis, and the non-pharmacy sales went down 1.4% on the same basis.

Continue reading Rite Aid beats analysts, but not right for me yet

Rite Aid up on Q4 report -- can you buy it now?

Rite Aid (NYSE: RAD), whose competitors include Walgreen (NYSE: WAG), CVS Caremark (NYSE: CVS), and Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT), reported Q4 numbers today, and when you read through the release, you sort of come away with a decent feeling. You hear about improvements in this metric and that metric. You wonder if a turnaround might be in the offing. Then you look at the stock price and, even though it is currently being bid higher (it's up over 14% as I write), you come back down to earth and reality hits you in the face. Anything trading under a buck has to give you pause. Rite Aid is no different.

For the quarter, Rite Aid posted a 1.7% decrease in the top line. On an adjusted basis, the drugstore chain reported a loss of $0.14 per share. According to this source, Wall Street thought Rite Aid might lose $0.105 per share. The company is still adjusting to the Brooks Eckerd acquisition. Excluding that effect, same-store sales increased 0.8%. Including the asset, comps decreased 0.1%.

Continue reading Rite Aid up on Q4 report -- can you buy it now?

Rite-Aid: Not the right stock for me (or anyone)

Rite-Aid Corporation (NYSE: RAD) is the drugstore you should avoid. You can consider CVS Caremark (NYSE: CVS). You can take a look at Walgreen Company (NYSE: WAG). Rite-Aid? It's definitely not the cure for an ailing portfolio.

The troubled pharmacy chain is no stranger to losses and its public stock sits well below a buck a share. The third quarter numbers don't look too appealing. On an adjusted basis, Rite-Aid lost $0.15 per share. That may have been better than what analysts were calling for, namely a loss of $0.17 per share, but you have to look at the overall picture. Rite-Aid is closing stores, and that will hamper sales going forward (not to mention its brand equity, as well). Some will argue that it's all part of the turnaround. Sure, turnarounds can be ugly and painful, granted, but that doesn't mean you have to participate, hoping for the best. Why hop on this low-priced equity when integration of the Brooks Eckerd assets doesn't seem to be going very well?

According to the press release, there are a few positive statistics. Management says that overall same-store sales were up 1.4%, EBITDA increased over 8%, and operational cash flow was positive over the last three quarters (by comparison, cash was used for operations in the year-ago similar period). But the guidance isn't good, and I have no confidence in this management team to improve its GAAP performance. The company has to juice its sales, but with competition from stronger foes like CVS Caremark and Walgreen, I just don't see any silver lining to the Rite-Aid story. Turnaround specialists can make whatever argument they want. As for me, I'm going to make like the galaxy in Star Wars and stay far, far away from Rite-Aid's stock...

Disclosure: I don't own any company mentioned; positions can change at any time.

Rite-Aid's Q1 earnings spark sell-off that is no buying opportunity

Rite-Aid (NYSE: RAD), a competitor of CVS (NYSE: CVS) and Walgreen (NYSE: WAG), tanked Thursday. By the end of the trading session, the pharmacy's stock declined almost 23% on heavy volume. Yes, it was a horrible day in the market overall, but don't blame the market at large. Rite-Aid is simply a company to avoid, and its latest earnings data show why.

According to the AP, Rite-Aid booked a loss of $0.20 per share for its fiscal first quarter versus a profit of $0.04 per share in the year-ago period. There are some growing pains going on here, since Rite-Aid is attempting to integrate its purchase of Brooks Eckerd. That acquisition propelled the company to top-line revenue growth of 48%. Unfortunately, analysts were looking for the company to lose only $0.09 per share. The significant differential made investors feel justified in punishing the stock. Heck, I'll bless the sell-off myself.

It'll be a long time before Rite-Aid finally turns its ship around. The next fiscal year will bring more losses, and with strong competition out there from CVS and Walgreen, the road ahead for management won't be for the faint of heart. This is truly a speculator's stock. I took a look at a post I wrote on Rite-Aid back near the beginning of April. At that time, the stock was priced at about $2.89 per share. As of Thursday's close, the shares were trading for $1.35. The Rite-Aid story belongs in the horror genre, and its stock is best left to those professionals who don't mind losing money. Individual investors? This company isn't for you, in my opinion.

Disclosure: I don't own any company mentioned; positions can change at any time.

Rite Aid's comps are no panacea for stock price

Rite Aid (NYSE: RAD), I should disclose, is one of my least favorite companies and stocks. Nevertheless, I don't mind checking in on it from time to time when there is news about it. Yesterday, the pharmacy released sales data for the month of March (the data excludes the Brooks Eckerd acquisition). Did they change my outlook on Rite Aid at all?

No, although I should say that this wouldn't be necessarily expected; a month of same-store sales data isn't the killer app of an overall investment thesis for a retail idea. Still, shareholders follow comps religiously, and I have to say that Rite Aid's number was nothing to write home about. A 2.6% gain in sales at stores open more than a year is weak. Walgreen (NYSE: WAG) said earlier in the week that its comparable-store revenues grew by a much better 4.4%. Walgreen was able to take advantage of the Easter shopping excitement in a much better fashion than Rite Aid. It all comes down to brand and execution; Walgreen, as well as CVS Caremark (NYSE: CVS), are more valuable in terms of both those attributes.

I may not have been bowled over by Walgreen's recent earnings release, but I can tell you that Rite Aid's share price is downright frightening and telling -- it's telling people to stay away, or at least understand that it may be essentially like buying a lottery ticket (it closed at $2.89 yesterday). Rite Aid's same-store sales were weak, and so is its investment potential.

Disclosure: I don't own shares in any of the companies mentioned here; positions can change at any time.

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S&P 500+4.981,110.63

Last updated: November 25, 2009: 06:25 PM

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