Political Science Scholar Larry Sabato co-wrote, The Party's Just Begun, which could also prove to be an apt phrase for the political climate in the months ahead in Washington.

That's because Congressional Republicans, emboldened by the securing of their 41st -- and filibuster-capable -- vote in the Senate as a result of Scott Brown's victory in the Massachusetts U.S. Senate race, may now choose to lock horns with U.S. President Barack Obama, D-Illinois, over his proposed $3.8 trillion fiscal 2011 budget.

Continue reading Obama Budget, Republican Obstruction, May Lead to Gridlock in Washington

Obama Budget, Republican Obstruction, May Lead to Gridlock in Washington originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 02 Feb 2010 16:40:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

There is a disturbing trend that is taking shape across the international financial markets. It involves primarily Russia, Brazil and China. Just what are these countries up to? They may be tipping the balance of international finance into uncharted waters.

Specifically, they are buying smaller quantities of U.S. treasuries and using their excess reserves to buy other non-dollar denominated assets. For example, in April total net purchases of long-term equities, notes and bonds rose a net $11.2 billion compared with a gain of $55.4 billion in March. International holdings increased $41.9 billion in April, compared with $55.3 billion in March.

Continue reading China, Russia, Brazil reducing their purchases of U.S. securities -- why?

China, Russia, Brazil reducing their purchases of U.S. securities -- why? originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 16 Jun 2009 09:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

• CDS holders to push GM into bankruptcy despite salvage efforts? (Financial Times)
• Recession creates first April budget deficit since 1983 (BloggingStocks)
• Biofuels fall off a cliff, hard to find opportunity (Earth2Web)
• Georgia Gulf near bankruptcy (Zack's)
• More home owners unable to sell houses opt to rent them out (BloggingStocks)

Doomsday Scenario: CDS contracts to push GM into bankruptcy, recession jacks budget deficit originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 13 May 2009 08:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Since December 2007, Washington has committed $7.2 trillion to bailing out the bad investment bets of our financial system. It's even thrown in a few billion for the pathetically managed automobile industry. And with the incoming Obama administration, that figure is likely to hit a nice round number -- $8 trillion.

To put that in perspective, $8 trillion is 57% of our $14 trillion Gross Domestic Product (GDP). But here's the beauty part -- there is no way of knowing where the money went exactly and whether it is doing any good. Much of the money was supposed to go to borrowers. But the banks refuse to disclose what they're doing with it. If Wall Street pays itself $16 billion in bonuses this year -- down 50% from the 2007 high -- that money will come from us taxpayers.

Am I the only one in the U.S. who thinks it's a mistake to use taxpayer money with no strings attached? Is our system so badly skewed that the very people who caused the economic disaster are getting multimillion dollar bonuses from taxpayers who are losing their homes, jobs, and stock portfolios?

Continue reading How's that $8 trillion bailout going?

How's that $8 trillion bailout going? originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 06 Jan 2009 08:47:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

The government is printing money like there's no tomorrow and running record deficits. So why isn't inflation out of control? To answer that, we need look no further than Economics 101. When demand exceeds supply, prices rise and when supply exceeds demand, prices fall.

Up until July 2008, commodity prices were rising because institutions were able to borrow money to go long commodities and short the dollar. As a result, the demand for commodities exceeded their supply and prices rose -- contributing heavily to rapid inflation. For instance, oil rose from $24 a barrel in January 2001 to peak in July at $147 a barrel. But since then, this commodity trade has evaporated along with access to debt -- and oil now trades 70% lower at $43.

But this fall, there were some slight problems with the financial markets -- for instance, the government decided to let Lehman Brothers file for bankruptcy. This financial collapse has caused banks to clamp down on lending. And since consumers, which account for 70% of GDP growth, depend so heavily on borrowing to finance their consumption, an end to lending cuts way back on their purchasing power. So does their $10 trillion loss of housing and stock wealth in the last year. With the disappearance of debt, supply exceeds demand and prices tumble.

Continue reading With $1 trillion deficit and $11 trillion national debt, why no inflation?

With $1 trillion deficit and $11 trillion national debt, why no inflation? originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 10 Dec 2008 11:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

If an enemy sworn to the destruction of the global economy was given free reign, it would follow the strategies of its current leaders.

One key to destroying an economy is to break its pricing mechanism. What does an effectively functioning pricing system do? It creates a market of buyers and sellers who can meet, agree on a price, conduct the transaction, and create an information trail that permits future market participants to judge what might be a fair price for their transactions.

Another key to destroying an economy is to put too low a price on risky behavior. Why is it important to price risk accurately? Because if decision-makers do not assess the risk at the time of their decision, the economy will end up paying for the under-priced risk long after those decision-makers have left office.

So how have current leaders broken the pricing mechanism and under-priced risk? Here are three ways:

Continue reading What wrecked the global economy

What wrecked the global economy originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 01 Jul 2008 08:45:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Reuters reports that Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson is in the middle of oil country -- Qatar -- talking about how a strong dollar is in the U.S. interest. With the dollar down 72% since January 2001, it would be nice if Paulson would use his power to strengthen the dollar.

Unfortunately, he doesn't have enough power or chooses not to use it. The power to influence the strength of the dollar resides in the Oval Office. With a $410 billion budget deficit, $9.4 trillion in government borrowing, and interest rates that have dropped from 5.25% to 2% since August, it's not a big surprise that the dollar is so weak.

And since oil is denominated in those ever-weaker dollars, the price of gasoline tops $4 a gallon -- a big "surprise" to the Oval Office occupant. Nevertheless, this is great news for Qatar and its neighboring countries. Our leaders are protecting the interests of those Middle Eastern countries -- both through military policies and economic ones -- while talking about a strong dollar.

Those countries have outsourced their military defense to the U.S. And the rest of us are paying the price.

Peter Cohan is President of Peter S. Cohan & Associates. He also teaches management at Babson College and edits The Cohan Letter.

Paulson talks strong dollar, acts weak originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Sun, 01 Jun 2008 09:32:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

File under irony: Bush looks to cut spending by printing fewer copies of budget originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 05 Feb 2008 15:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

China may be kicking our collective butts regarding our colossal trade deficit, but it is also doing its fair share of spending too. Spending by China has affected commodity prices (metals, concrete), energy prices (oil & gas), construction service prices (design, planning, engineering, management), shipping, housing, clothing, electronics, you name it. The Chinese have been spending with reckless abandon -- all the time buying our treasury notes and expanding their economy at the rapid pace of 8% to 10% GDP annually. Read the Economist for more, China forecast

Growth in China has spurred the U.S. and the global economy. Reading the comments I have received to yesterday's post Venice Beach as economic indicator: Consumer spending slows, there seems to be plenty of negative sentiment out there about the U.S. economy. Making the case for recession is not hard to do. One could simply look at our run-away trade deficit and Federal spending. With a minimum of economic understanding, you could get scared to death.

My "favorite feature" of the U.S. budget (deficit) is the cost of the Iraq war which is an "off-line" item -- meaning they do not count it in their figures. That's hysterical. Let's all just take our mortgages and rents and put them off-line. Then we won't have to worry about them and no one will notice. The Feds should have a "Department of Pretending". EVERYONE WOULD UNDERSTAND THAT PERFECTLY.

I think the Federal branch learned this trick from Wall Street. It's called a "one-time expense" and since it's not a "recurring expense," analysts just set it aside when determining the value of a company. That stinks, but it will have to be the subject of another story. The problem is we have had this one-time expense (Iraq) for several years and we can anticipate several more.

But I have digressed. The main point I wanted to make here is that we can all make the case for a recession. Trade, debt, spending, energy, housing and numerous other areas support the case. Commenter's have raised these issues and see bad times in the next few years.

While I agree that is a possibility, I think that global recession will be postponed at least until the Chinese have their BIG OLYMPIC SHOW in Beijing, regardless of any other factors. I believe the Chinese government has been postponing numerous "pipers they have to pay" because of the upcoming Summer Olympics. This has been a major focus since they won the right to be the host in 2008. Some of their early and rapid economic expansion can be traced to this effort. When it is over they will utter a collective (leftover communist term) sigh of relief. When that happens, spending will slow, interest rates will be allowed to rise and only firms specializing in the clean-up of the environment will be popular.

China has not only been slow to curb its unsustainable growth, but one of the pipers they will have to pay will be for cleaner water, air and city streets and farmland. The first part to any clean-up campaign is to stop doing those things that are causing the problem; which is everything, in this massive national expansion.

I do not see the same doom that many see. But when China takes that HUGE sigh of relief, then we may have a recession.

Sheldon Liber is the CEO of a small private investment company and the vice president for Design and Research of an Architecture & Planning firm.

Global recession? Not until after Beijing Summer Olympics originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 22 Aug 2006 14:32:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.