The great debate: Have we reached bottom in the financial crisis, or is there more to come? It's a multi-million dollar question.

Reuters conducted a poll on April 21-27 to get feedback form analysts across Europe and the US. The sobering conclusion was that the recession could last a year or two more. Most said that the worst is yet to come. Their findings stated: "Financial and macroeconomic stability are still some way off and we don't yet have the foundation for a solid recovery."

Continue reading Reuters poll: Recession to last one or more years

Reuters poll: Recession to last one or more years originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 27 Apr 2009 18:10:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Continue reading Falling knife or opportunity? You make the call.

Falling knife or opportunity? You make the call. originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 18 Mar 2008 09:12:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

I ran into an interesting article in Fortune titled "Don't expect another bull market: Stock returns may never be the same -- at least for this generation of investors." The article made a bold prediction:

Barring a miracle -- or the creation of a New Math of the market variety -- there's no way we'll ever see a bull market along the lines of what so many of us grew up with.

This is very interesting from a sentiment viewpoint. A few years ago, at the height of the dot com boom, some claimed that we were creating a new economy in which the stock market could not go down. Then it crashed.

I say, don't buy into these extremes. In the long run, the market will have ups and downs, but will continue a slow long-term uptrend. We may have rough periods of adjustment -- like we are currently seeing in housing -- but that doesn't mean that the fundamentals have changed.

Articles like this can be a good contrarian sign. As writers predict the end of stock market gains, it may be a sign that we have reached the bottom.

Kevin Kersten is an Stock and Options Analyst with InvestorsObserver.com. Disclosure note: Mr. Kersten owns and/or controls a diversified portfolio of long and short positions that may include holdings in companies he writes about.

Is the bull market over? originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 05 Mar 2008 11:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

In case anyone is still feeling bullish, Paul Farrell of MarkeWatch has produced a list of 20 triggers that will end what he calls "the aging bull." Here are some of his suggestions for possible "tipping points" that will bring an abrupt end to all this fun. Here are some of the ones I think could be particularly catastrophic:

• Trade imbalance
• Real Estate markets problems
• Skyrocketing Oil
• Surging consumer debt
• Issues of international credibility

Interestingly, I disagree strongly with his concern about "Washington politics in endless gridlock." Isn't that a good thing? If the best government is the least government, what could be better than a bunch of bureaucrats in Congress arguing and accomplishing nothing -- i.e. not spending our money?

Take a look at the list and let us know what you think the top concerns are.

Five triggers for a catastrophic market decline originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 02 Aug 2007 10:50:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose today by 187 points, a 1.41% rise. The NASDAQ rose by 32 points, or 1.28% and the vaunted S&P 500 Index by 22 points or 1.52%. The markets were relatively benign until the details emerged from the Federal Reserve's Beige Book.

The Beige Book is released eight times per year, and is the collective wisdom of the 12 different Fed Governors. The news was better than expected, and the 10-year treasury note, which was topping out at 5.25%, began to sink and investors re-focused on the equities market.

The details from the Beige Book report was just the music the equity investor wanted -- needed -- to hear. Capital goods orders were picking up and the job market was, indeed, stabilizing. To boot, the real symphony continued when the Fed indicated there was no upward pressure on wage prices, thus stemming one of the legs of inflation. Consumer spending appears to remain in a healthy pattern, with general retail sales up a surprising 1.6%, versus the expectations of 0.8%. The consumer is still in a position to sustain economic growth.

The indicators from the Federal Reserve basically put the "R -word": Recession, back into the closet.

Continue reading Market sees biggest upswing in almost a year: Recession back in closet

Market sees biggest upswing in almost a year: Recession back in closet originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 13 Jun 2007 17:54:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Market sentiment seems to be favoring the bears again. My cursory research indicates that 65% of investors are again thinking about an impending decline while the other 35% are still cautiously optimistic. It's only seldom in these last few weeks that I came across the occasional person who insists that the bull charge, which began in 2002, shows no signs of relenting. Just the fact that there has been a noticeable increase in the past few weeks (even before these past few days of declines) in the volume of discussions and analysis regarding how to recognize a bear market is coming, how to prepare for it's arrival and what to do when it gets here, signals to me that investors are getting skittish. The funny thing is that it's almost a universally accepted fact that no one can truly predict a bear market turn.

I gave a warning a couple weeks prior to the last contraction that I thought one was coming. That quick downward slide in fact happened. I'm now going on record again as declaring that the bear is coming for another swipe. I expect that this time the cut will go deeper and bleed a bit longer. (Indeed, I originally wrote this post after Tuesday's sell-off, but already this downturn is longer and deeper than the last). Last time around, I sent you that message based solely on gut instinct with little else to back it up. This time, however, I'll clue you in to some of my thinking.

Continue reading Bull or Bear Market: Aiming at Q3

Bull or Bear Market: Aiming at Q3 originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Fri, 08 Jun 2007 10:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

DJIA 13,266.73; -198.94 (-1.48%)
S&P500 1,490.72; -26.66 (-1.76%)
NASDAQ 2,541.38; -45.80 (-1.77%)
10YR Bond 5.10%; +0.13%

We have gone from a raging bull market to what has felt like a sudden bear market in just three days. The DJIA has seen 3 consecutive days with triple-digit drops. Since the highs on Monday June 4, the Dow is down 456.64, although this is only a 3.327% drop. The old rule of thumb for panic buying on severe market drops is after a 5% drop, and that would require the DJIA to reach 13,037.20. Keep in mind that the numbers are right, but the theory of buying the 5% dip is more rough in nature and not exact.

Today you can chalk up to a very negative outlook from Bond mogul Bill Gross of PIMCO. PIMCO recently added Alan Greenspan to its advisory board, and Mr. Gross didn't waste any time in taking it upon himself to begin sounding like the ex-Chairman of the Fed. You can see the summary comments if you wish, and some of the projections are odd. The old 4.0% to 5.5% range for the 10-year US Treasury Note is now moved up to a wider 4.0% to 6.5% range. This is over a 3 to 5 year period, and the article does discuss the expected weakness ahead combined with commodity inflation ultimately being at-risk for pass-throughs.

It will be interesting to see if Jim Cramer maintains his high DJIA target for the year and if he bails on his top 2007 picks, but seeing as that he just gave his DJIA component targets it would be hard to imagine a real change of heart. Here are Cramer's New 4 Horsemen of Technology he just gave last night.

These drops often feel severe, but unless it's a scenario of "it's different this time" then these may just be bigger opportunities.

Jon Ogg can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

Is the Mini-Bear market a real bear, or just a hamster? originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 07 Jun 2007 18:50:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Private equity shifts gears to technology originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 05 Jun 2007 10:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Sentiment: Pessimism still reigns originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 04 Jun 2007 13:45:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Michael Steinhardt, the hedge fund pioneer, tells Bloomberg News that the bull market may soon be over though he hedges on when the end is coming. He argues that some investors were using too much debt to boost returns and the dollar may get a boost from a decline in the federal deficit. Almost as interesting are his remarks on the red-hot Fortress Investment Group LLC (NYSE:FIG) public offering.

He's worth investors' attention. He opened Steinhardt Management Co. in 1967 and produced hedge-fund returns averaging 24 percent a year for the next 28 years, Bloomberg says. The firm closed in 1995 when it had $2.6 billion under management. Steinhardt is now chairman of WisdomTree Investments Inc.

Here are some highlights:

``Very few people have the ability to pick a high, and I don't think that this is the exact moment,'' he said. ``One stays long, but one becomes very sensitive. You say to yourself that the next major, major move is going the other way.''

``Coming back to the area where the excess might be, I think it's in leveraged investments,'' including commodities and real estate, Steinhardt said. ``The rules related to borrowing money have loosened up extraordinarily. This is something we should remember."

``I wouldn't buy Fortress,'' he said. ``Firstly, its assets go up and down in the elevator every day, and No. 2, it has a limited history of success, and No. 3, even if it had a longer history of success, it doesn't seem to me the sort of thing that has durability.''

Has the bull market come to an end? originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 15 Feb 2007 14:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

All that glitters is gold (and copper): Freeport agrees to buy Phelps Dodge for $25.9 billion originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 20 Nov 2006 17:20:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Cash in money-fund assets relative to the capitalization of the Wilshire 5000 may be a good measure of investor sentiment, according to research published by Ned Davis. When cash is high, it is a good sign for stocks; when the cash is low, be careful.

Big bullish signals:

• In 1982, the start of the great bull market, cash relative to the capitalization of the Wilshire 5000 was 24%.
• In 2002, at the bottom of the bear market, cash stood at 27%.

Currently, that ratio is at 16.8% -- well within the high liquidity zone and a sign of investor nervousness, which is good news for stocks. Davis' research found that the market rallied 60% of the time when cash was over 12.8% of the Wilshire's value.

While the market has had a strong rally this fall, it appears the bull market still has plenty of liquidity to push it higher.

Cash holdings indicate bull market is intact originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 20 Nov 2006 16:38:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.