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Earnings highlights: Citigroup, Intel, JPMorgan, Alcoa, Apple and others

Here are some highlights from this past week's earnings coverage from BloggingStocks:

Continue reading Earnings highlights: Citigroup, Intel, JPMorgan, Alcoa, Apple and others

Chasing Value: 2008 picks -- the last nail

I made it through mid-year of tracking my 2008 picks from last December and then -- Wham! -- I went from a slight advantage to being humbled badly by the market. However difficult it is to display your failings, once again I will share all of the horrors since I posted the original story Chasing Value: Final list -- 8 stocks for 2008.

The master is still the master, Warren Buffett and his life's work Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK.B) beat me easily as well as the three indices I tracked.

For the most part, unless you started shorting stocks, there was no place to hide and most of my picks were big losers. There were two that beat Buffett and the market. The defense sector was the defensive sector it was supposed to be with Raytheon Company (NYSE: RTN) doing well on a relative scale. The other place you could have a morsel of stability was utilities and Huaneng Power International (ADR) (NYSE: HNP) lost less but not by much.

Continue reading Chasing Value: 2008 picks -- the last nail

What happened to ethanol?

This post was writtenby Minyanville contributor Ryan Krueger.

Looks like Verasun Energy Corp. (NYSE: VSE), a formerly popular ethanol stock and second largest producer, has won court permission to cancel contracts signed to purchase corn. It is now in bankruptcy. I'm also hearing about a lot of excess ethanol funded by your tax dollars being sold to other countries. That worked out well.

The mistaken policy and debates are endless, the trades are what I am chewing on instead. I think consumers of corn at lower prices are set up for some awfully tasty '09 comparisons for their bottom lines. Corn Products International, Inc. (NYSE: CPO), after Bunge Limited (NYSE: BG) backed away from its take-over, is a name I have re-entered from the long side after closing out my position just after the non-merger was announced and shares traded twice what they are now. They sweeten something you'll eat or drink in the next hour.

Longer term, however, I am even more interested in the ingredients, not the end products. But it's still early. I have been long gone from 2008 corn contracts for quite some time, but am starting to poke around out on the futures curve. On the same day this court ruling was announced abolishing artificial demand, quiet real demand emerged as Mexico was a big buyer of corn.

I'll take a few billion eaters over several million drivers any day.

Bunge (BG) has a $4.4 billion craving for Corn Products (CPO)

In the agricultural sector, it's been nirvana for investors. But are prices too high?

Perhaps not. Take Bunge Ltd. (NYSE: BG), which is a major fertilizer and oilseed producer. Bunge has agreed to pay $4.4 billion for Corn Products International Inc. (NYSE: CPO), a producer of finished corn products. Some of its customers include biggies like Coca-Cola (NYSE: KO). This is a stock-for-stock deal. In other words, why not take advantage of the high market caps?

Both companies have rich histories. Corn Products got its start in 1906 and Bunge was founded in 1818. But it's the future that matters, and Bunge is certainly bullish on the global growth trends in the agricultural markets. To take advantage of this, it makes sense to bulk up. Corn Products will expand Bunge's offerings as well as provide some diversification.

In fact, Bunge also raised its full-year 2008 earnings forecast from $7.10-$7.40 to $9.35-$9.65. This doesn't even include the impact of the Corn Products transaction.

Tom Taulli is the author of various books, including The Complete M&A Handbook and The Edgar Online Guide to Decoding Financial Statements. He also operates MergerBook.com.

Chasing Value: 8 stocks for 2008 -- May beats all

After five months of tracking my 2008 picks, it is rewarding to finally have a breakthrough -- topping the three major stock indices and Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK.B) too. It has been painful to have to report each month that I was being bested. However, since I have not seen anything contradicting my original rationale for my eight picks I stood my ground.

This past month saw great improvement. For the first time since I posted the original story Chasing Value: Final list -- 8 stocks for 2008, five of the eight stocks are up:

Moving into positive territory by pennies was Loews Corporation (NYSE: LTR). Among its holdings is a 51% stake in Diamond Offshore Drilling, Inc. (NYSE: DO) that has been doing well as the world remains desperate for more oil and natural gas.

Bunge Limited (NYSE: BG) was the other stock to cross the line into the black, while Valero Energy Corp. (NYSE: VLO), although improving, remains my worst performer. It is still down almost 28% after five months.

The gap between the Dow Jones Industrial Average, Standard & Poor's 500 Index and the technology heavy NASDAQ Composite Index narrowed substantially so that the three are tracking each other very closely. Stocks like Apple, Inc (NASDAQ: AAPL) and Google Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG) continue to gain significantly and their outlooks have not been shaken amid overall pessimistic economic forecasts.

Continue reading Chasing Value: 8 stocks for 2008 -- May beats all

Cramer on BloggingStocks: A dollar rebound won't kill the ag stocks

TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says the bull story here has more causes than just a weak greenback.

Better seeds and more fertilizer. That's it. Those are the technology weapons in the war against food shortages caused in the short term by a worldwide obsession with biofuels (we are the worst offender, of course) and in the long term by the increased affluence in China and India, which leads to more nutritious, protein-filled diets.

Both forces, when combined with worldwide droughts and failed harvests, not augmented by the U.S. -- we are late to start with our corn season -- are driving prices up to ridiculous levels. I have no doubt that if tomorrow the president of the United States said he was suspending the biofuel mandates for ethanol that we would see a collapse in food pricing. But I also have no doubt that this inept administration could never figure that out.

So, the solution comes to all of the stocks that were crushed yesterday: Monsanto (NYSE: MON) (Cramer's Take), Potash (NYSE: POT) (Cramer's Take), Mosaic (NYSE: MOS) (Cramer's Take) and Agrium (NYSE: AGU) (Cramer's Take). Without better seeds that produce higher yields, without more fertilizer that increases yields, we are going to be facing a long-term continuation of these price increases and the attendant inflation and food riots. Inflation, by the way, that has nothing to do with the Fed, unless the Fed is also a big granary hoarding wheat and corn.

Continue reading Cramer on BloggingStocks: A dollar rebound won't kill the ag stocks

Bunge Limited (BG): Shares price defines bullish 'flag'

Bunge Limited (NYSE: BG) is an integrated agribusiness, fertilizer and food products concern. The company is a leading global processor of soybeans and other grains, a leading provider of products and services to the South American farming community and a major U.S. food processor. Some of Bunge's agribusiness products are used for industrial purposes, including renewable fuels like biodiesel. Archer-Daniels-Midland (NYSE: ADM) is a major competitor.

Investors were pleased earlier in the month, when Bunge-DuPont (NYSE: DD) joint venture Solae Company said it would increase global prices for its soy protein ingredients by up to 30%. The firm said the increases were necessary, in order to maintain a consistent level of service, innovation and investment in research.

Continue reading Bunge Limited (BG): Shares price defines bullish 'flag'

Analyst downgrades: LVLT, TXN, BG, WLP, KERX and CTXS

MOST NOTEWORTHY: The Managed Care sector, Keryx Biopharma and Citrix Systems were today's noteworthy downgrades:
  • Goldman downgraded the Managed Care sector to Neutral from Attractive following WellPoint's (NYSE: WLP) reduced 2008 outlook. The firm said WellPoint's issues reflect a company specific underwriting error but also industry-wide pricing pressures which increase the risk of a cyclical slowdown in managed care. WellPoint was also downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at JP Morgan.
  • Banc of America cut Keryx Biopharma (NASDAQ: KERX) to Neutral from Buy and lowered their target to $1.00 after Sulonex failed to meet its primary endpoint.
  • Jefferies downgraded shares of Citrix Systems (NASDAQ: CTXS) to Hold from Buy, as they believe the first half of 2008 will be a tough year for software and are increasingly worried about the macro environment.
OTHER DOWNGRADES:

Bunge Ltd. likes the entire food chain

Readers of this space know that the investment bias is toward large-cap companies with demonstrated business models and a competitive advantage in established markets, preferably with a favorable global trend as a support. And with the above in mind, Bunge Ltd. is worth a review.

Bunge Ltd. (NYSE: BG) is the world's No. 1 soybean processor, a leading South American fertilizer maker and provider, and a major U.S. food processor. BG is also the world's largest oilseed producer. Analysts see BG's sales advancing 13-17% in 2008, after a double-digit gain in 2007.

Further, analysts believe Bunge is well-positioned in the world's largest food production regions to take advantage of the world's fastest-growing consumption markets. In addition, analysts like BG's 80-nation footprint.

Margins may narrow slightly in 2008, due to higher commodity and energy costs. The Reuters F2008/F2009 EPS consensus estimates for BG are $6.63/$7.61.

The risks? Analysts are keeping an eye on soybean margins. A global economic slowdown would also (obviously) hurt BG's results.

The First Call mean rating for BG is: Hold [9 firms]. Mean 2008 target: $132 [high: $143, low: $120].

Stock Analysis: Bunge Ltd. is a moderate-risk stock not suitable for low-risk investors. Investors with an investment horizon longer than 2 years should be rewarded from BG's shares. Sell / Stop Loss if you were to purchase shares in this company: $72.

Disclosure: Lazzaro has no positions in stocks. In addition to private real estate holdings, he owns corporate and municipal bonds, and cash certificates of deposit.

Chasing Value: January review -- 8 stocks for 2008

January was a wild ride and February holds the promise of more of the same after yesterday's 370 point drop in the Warren Buffett Dow. All the major indices were down in January and so were seven of my eight picks. Only Raytheon Co. (NYSE: RTN), the high tech defense contractor, was up. My two high flyers from last year, Huaneng Power International, Inc. (ADR) (NYSE: HNP) and Valero Energy Corp. (NYSE: VLO), were the biggest losers.

I have not changed my opinion of these stocks from that of the original story Chasing Value: Final list -- 8 stocks for 2008 and I am following them closely for buying opportunities. We have already added more Newcastle Investment Corp. (NYSE: NCT) and Huaneng Power to our holdings.

Among the indices, the DJIA lost the least and the NASDAQ lost the most. The average return for my eight picks was -7.82%. This underperformed the average of the indices that was -7.58% -- but my new stalking horse Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK.B) bested both, so Buffett is still the man.

Now including dividends for my picks which average 3.91% divided by 12 for the one month allows for an additional .326%, reducing the loss to -7.494%. Using 1.8% for the average dividend of the indices divided by 12 adds 0.15%, reducing the loss to -7.43%. The dividends tighted things up. BRK.B does not pay a dividend.

The following are my eight picks with the starting share price as of December 28, 2007:

Continue reading Chasing Value: January review -- 8 stocks for 2008

Chasing Value: Bunge (BG) shares gain 9% in down market as it feeds the hungry world

January has not been very kind to the overall stock market and many of my 2008 picks are down as well. The best bet so far has been the hungry world theme because Bunge Limited (NYSE: BG) has only gone up.

The starting price on December 28, 2007 for BG was $119.03 per share. Thursday it closed at $127.10 and this morning it touched $130.50 intraday. With any investment I look at, I try my best to figure out which one might offer the highest risk-reward value; some work out and some do not. In the short run, this one seems to be working out. BG is up 9% when the market is down 9% - that works out very nicely indeed.

Of all my Chasing Value: Final list -- 8 stocks for 2008 picks, Bunge had the best year in 2007, rising 70% and I felt there was still plenty of room to run. There are many reasons to believe BG is going to have another great year. You should check it out for yourself.

UPDATE: Stock closed at $129.15

To find potential opportunities and verify my track record, read Chasing Value and Serious Money.

DISCLOSURE: I do not own shares of BG.

Sheldon Liber is the CEO of a small private investment company and the principal for design and research at an architecture & planning firm.

Chasing Value: Final 8 -- love dividends

I recently posted Chasing Value: Final list -- 8 stocks for 2008 and mentioned that all of them pay a dividend. If this year is going to be as gloomy as some would have you believe, then stocks that pay dividends, as a group, will outshine those that do not.

The following are my eight picks, with the closing stock price as of my start date December 28, 2007 and the dividend yield. Last year, there were more stocks among my picks that paid a dividend higher than the S&P 500 Index average of 1.8% . This year there are only two.

Continue reading Chasing Value: Final 8 -- love dividends

Chasing Value: Final list -- 8 stocks for 2008

A few days behind schedule, but here is my list of eight stocks. Included in the list there are two holdovers from the 2007 list of seven stocks. I do not see any value in creating an entirely new list when I have done well over the years riding the winners. This is particularly true if the reasons you bought the stock in the first place remain valid.

These eight picks for the year will be tracked monthly with updated results. The initial share prices are from December 28, 2007. They are focused on defense, energy, food, gold, metals, mining, oil, power, and every one pays a dividends. The following are my "Quick Takes" in alphabetical order with links to the complete stories.

Anglo American plc (ADR) (NASDAQ: AAUK) is a world-class player in precious metals, diamonds, and commodities, which are all growing in demand. When the world economy is booming, all of its mining products are sought after, and when the market runs scared, gold goes up. It pays a dividend yield of 1.9% and is trading almost 25% off its 52-week high. For full story: Chasing Value: Anglo American diamonds and gold are your best friend. The closing price on December 28, 2007, for AAUK was $30.79.

Continue reading Chasing Value: Final list -- 8 stocks for 2008

Serious Money: No recession in 2008

All this recession talk has not convinced me that we are destined to have one, and I see plenty of signs that 2008 might surprise to the upside. There are plenty of problems within the US economy, and I could make a case that there is a possibility that the economy might catch cold but remedies also exist. I see the cup as half full for the stock market. This is not to say that individuals will not have to deal with hard times, they will - but the market might shine. This can happen because the market is global.

Many widely followed investment icons have a different perspective, including renowned international investor Jim Rogers in the December issue of Fortune who said, "In my view, the U.S. economy is in recession. I know the government says we're not. But as I look around, we know that automobiles are in worse than recession. The same thing is true for home-builders. Much of the financial sector is in worse than recession. So many parts of America are in worse than recession, and yet the government says we're not in a recession. I don't know what's so strong that it's offsetting these major weaknesses in the American economy. I just assume that the government is lying."

I can agree that the government is lying, but I can't agree that the economy is void of positives. There is plenty that is going strong in the economy. The defense sector is going strong as I reported on recently Defense sector rolls over S&P 500 for 8th straight year and there is every indication this will continue.

Continue reading Serious Money: No recession in 2008

Cramer on BloggingStocks: Skyrocketing oil boosts the alt fuels

Jim CramerTheStreet.com's Jim Cramer explains why the unique dynamic of oil as a commodity gives alternative fuels a "magic" price point.

Boy, that ethanol is cheap. It's cheap if we use corn, and it is even cheaper if we use soy. It doesn't matter how much it costs or how much infrastructure is needed, it's become the low-cost gasoline even with the stupid unnecessary subsidies.

Amazing, isn't it? But that's why Monsanto (NYSE: MON) (Cramer's Take) and Bunge (NYSE: BG) (Cramer's Take) are so cheap and why all of the various "sun" stocks are inexpensive. Oil at $92, going to who knows where, is going to make all of these unnaturally natural alternatives the low-cost fuels.

There are a lot of fuels that are cheaper to produce than oil now, particularly if you read Chris Edmond's unbelievably good series out of the Middle East. It's all demand-on-fire, supply disappearing that is controlling the price. It isn't Nigerian terrorism or Iranian intransigence or Iraqi-Turk tensions.

Those are all just headline terms by writers searching for a reason to write about oil jumping. They have no choice. They can't keep writing "because supply is outstripped by demand," even though that's what is happening.

In a sense, we have a fabulous opportunity as a country to make some headway here on domestic security because of this umbrella. Even coal, which will now never amount to much given the Democrats' desire to stop global warming, becomes too viable to ignore as the rallies in Peabody Energy (NYSE: BTU) (Cramer's Take) and Arch Coal (NYSE: ACI) (Cramer's Take) show.

So, the endless moves up will continue. I have never seen a commodity that has no price at which demand tapers. So anything with a price point of $80 or less is now a go.

Including all crops that will burn.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

RELATED LINKS:

The Five Dumbest Things on Wall Street This Week

The 'Hannah Montana' Stock Index


Jim Cramer is a director and co-founder of TheStreet.com. He contributes daily market commentary for TheStreet.com's sites and serves as an adviser to the company's CEO. At the time of publication, Cramer had no positions in stocks mentioned.

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Last updated: November 10, 2009: 06:55 AM

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