I've received a few chuckles for investment directions I've suggested in the past, but if you care to review a couple of my previous generalities, I believe that my record has held up fairly well.
I submit for approval the following investment angles for the balance of 2008 and possibly beyond:
Have I suggested investments in water holdings? Yes, I do believe that I have. I believe that going long in water stocks could be an investment hedge of the decade. I also suggest a look into the desalination technology from General Electric Co. (NYSE: GE).
I'd think it's a good idea to stick with the railroads, such as Burlington Northern Santa Fe (NYSE: BNI). I claim that, with all things given, for now, railroads can't fail. Conversely, I think it's a good time to back away slowly from trucking. I think misery lies ahead there.
Union Pacific (NYSE: UNP), a leading transportation company, closed at $120.92. UNP overall option implied volatility of 33 is above its 26-week average of 29 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price risks.
Burlington Northern (NYSE: BNI), an operator of 32,000 railroad route miles, closed at $80.77. BNI overall option implied volatility of 34 is above its 26-week average of 29 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price fluctuations.
Canadian National (NYSE: CNI) closed at $46.36. CNI overall option implied volatility of 33 is above its 26-week average of 26 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price fluctuations.
Daily Options Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com
MOST NOTEWORTHY: Abbott Labs, Barclays, SanDisk, Mission West Properties and Texas Instruments were today's noteworthy downgrades:
Wachovia downgraded shares of Abbott Labs (NYSE: ABT) to Market Perform from Outperform reflect several challenges to the company's key franchises. In particular, Wachovia cites the potential delay of the drug-eluting stent Xience launch in the U.S. and decelerating growth of Humira.
ABN Amro downgraded shares of Barclays (NYSE: BCS) to Hold from Buy to reflect the capital markets, lower UK bank non-interest income and higher bad debts.
Oppenheimer downgraded shares of SanDisk Corporation (NASDAQ: SNDK) to Neutral from Buy as they expect many of the advantages that drove shares to unwind in Q4 and into 1H08.
Mission West Properties (NYSE: MSW) was downgraded to Hold from Buy at Stifel, as they now believe the possibility of a sale is 50%/50% and could be pushed back to 1H08.
Think Equity downgraded shares of Texas Instruments (NYSE: TXN) to Source of Funds from Accumulate as they believe competition could hinder Q4 and 2008 growth for wireless.
Recently our own Sheldon Liber has posted severalveryinsightful columns summarizing U.S. Class 1 railroads. Here's a bit of follow up information. Winter 2006-2007 was not kind to the railroads. Burlington Northern Santa Fe (NYSE: BCI) has stated it will take an $80 million charge in first quarter 2007, approximately 14 cents per share, due to an increase in environmental compliance costs, $65 million, and the write-off of a technology system, $15 million. These charges against profits will reduce EPS to $0.96, compared to EPS of $1.09 in first quarter 2006. BNSF operates 32,000 miles of rail in 28 states and parts of Canada. It hauls more grain than any other Class 1 railroad, and hauls enough low-sulfur coal to supply 10% of total US electricity generated. Despite recent wintery problems, Warren Buffett, the Oracle of Omaha, thinks BNSF is a good bet. Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK-A) owns 40 million shares of BNSF, approximately 11% of the total shares. BNSF stock closed at $87.99, down $0.09.
Norfolk Southern (NYSE: NSC) also reported winter problems that will have a negative impact on earnings. Operating 21,000 miles of track in 22 Eastern states, Norfolk Southern saw a 4.4% decline in shipping volume in first quarter 2007 from first quarter 2006. This will result in 3% lower EPS than forecast. Norfolk Southern plans to release first quarter earnings on 25 April 2007. The stock closed at $52.74, down $0.15.
The Wall Street Journal reported that Time Warner Inc's (NYSE: TWX) Time Inc. has sold its interest in Bookspan, a book club, to Bertelsmann for about $150M.
According to the Financial Times, citing sources, Imperial Tobacco Group plc (NYSE: ITY) raised its bid for French and Spanish tobacco company Altadis SA to EUR47 per share from a previous bid of EUR45 per share. Bloomberg reported that Altadis rejected the sweetened takeover bid.
OTHER PAPERS:
The Telegraph reported that Dow Jones and Company Inc (NYSE: DJ), the publisher of the Wall Street Journal, is understood to be in advanced talks to buy the London-based Financial News newspaper for about GBP27M, with a deal possibly being announced within days.
As a supporter of wildlife and national parks, I am writing to express concern about Burlington Northern Santa Fe Corporation's (NYSE: BNI) alleged plan to use military artillery and other explosives for avalanche control in the southern boundary of Glacier National Park.
As you may be aware, Glacier National Park is a very special place for wildlife, providing habitat for a population of fascinating and valuable animals including the grizzly bear, gray wolf, Canada lynx and wolverine. All of these species occur in the southern portion of the Park being considered for shelling by Burlington Northern. I am very concerned that the possible use of explosives for avalanche control could have a measurable impact on the wildlife in the park.
According to local newspaper reports, there have been town meetings regarding this very issue, and several alternative plans are also on the table. Burlington Northern could invest in less destructive and more long-term solutions including repairing and expanding the network of snow sheds along the sections of avalanche-prone track. This choice would provide a more permanent and safer solution for the park's wildlife and visitors.
I would be horrified if Burlington Northern was serious about its proposal to blast one of our most treasured places. There must be solutions which would be far less dangerous and disturbing to the wildlife that lives there. If BNSF is considering this option, we owe it to ourselves and to the animals to be fully aware of the possible impact.