Day after day the media reports on the "reasons" that the market is moving up or down. Nobody seems to challenge these reports even though they are often patently bogus. And since the reports seem to change every day, we just get used to the idea that nobody offers a real explanation of daily market movements. So just like we simply have to accept that our portfolios are worth 40% less than they were last October, we have to accept that nobody will bail us out or even explain why the market moves up or down every day.

Yesterday, for example, there were two "explanations" offered -- both of which are silly. One was that investors were buying stocks yesterday in anticipation of a Fed rate cut, the other that investors were snapping up bargains. Yet just a little analysis suggests that both "explanations" are probably wrong. The Fed rate cut explanation makes no sense because the market has been anticipating a 50 basis point cut since last week -- if this was news why didn't the market rise last week?

The other -- that investors were snapping up bargains -- is also shaky. That's because a lower stock price does not necessarily mean that the stock is a bargain. Investors must evaluate a stock based on its price in relation to some measure of value -- such as its earnings growth or its net worth. But most analysts agree that 2009 earnings projections are not worth the paper they're written on. Some anticipate that earnings will decline 35% or more next year so P/E ratios are meaningless. And for many companies -- particularly those holding asset-backed securities -- net worth as stated on their books is a fiction that does not reflect the diminished value of this toxic waste.