Back in August of 1979, BusinessWeek ran a cover story proclaiming The Death of Equities, suggesting that the stock market was dead, and only a fool or old, out-of-touch person would invest there.
Needless to say, that article could not have been more wrong, and the bull market that began three years later was the longest in history.
Now, the good folks at BusinessWeek are back nearly 30 years later to declare that "the treat of a free fall is growing" for the housing market. There are some similarities. Like stocks in 1979, real estate has been a poor performer of late and it's hard to find anyone, except realtors of course, who is bullish.
But the question is whether sentiment has shifted too far to the negative side, versus the optimist of a few years ago. As Benjamin Graham wrote, the secret to successful investing is to be "greedy when others are fearful and fearful when others are greedy."
The BusinessWeek article is well-researched and has some valid points. But to the contrarian, it's hard to think of a better buy signal based on BusinessWeek's less than stellar track record with Chicken Little headlines.
According to the story, Microsoft Corp. (NASDAQ: MSFT) remains highly interested in re-entering talks to acquire Yahoo!, and it also says those talks may already be in progress.
Then it says Microsoft may want the whole company, but also might just be interested in the search element.
To this the magazine adds that if none of this works, Yahoo! might go ahead and work out a deal to give Google Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG) a non-exclusive right to either sell its search results or include it in its auctions -- or none of the above.
Roben Farzad argues in a column in the latest issue of BusinessWeek that disgraced/banned-from-the-industry-for-life former internet stock analyst Henry Blodget has redeemed himself, writing that, "I now admire Henry Blodget -- for his audacious reincarnation as a tech and media blogger and author. I find his work indispensably frank, stuff you see all too rarely from an ex-insider."
I'm here to tell you that I don't think he's redeemed himself. I'm more inclined to agree with Jim Cramer, who described Blodget as "a disgrace to the business and a creep." In his terrible book, Henry Blodget wrote little about his own wrongdoing, except to say this:
If missing the top had been my only mistake, I would have survived . . . I also made a more serious mistake, however, which was to write a lot of emotional unprofessional emails, especially during the heat of the crash. Later, amid the wreckage, when the press, public, and regulators began calling for blood, my emails did me in . . . I was accused by New York State Attorney General Elliot Spitzer of having made remarks in emails that were "inconsistent" with my research (popular translation: "privately trashing stocks he was public recommending"). Along with others, I agreed to pay a humongous fine and be barred from the industry.
Following Chrysler's lead to cut costs in relation to slowing sales, Ford Motor Company (NYSE: F) may cut its 2008 spending by 15%, according to the Wall Street Journal (subscription required).
The Writers Guild of America, battling with Hollywood film and TV producers, is expected to call for a strike, reported the Wall Street Journal.
Siemens AG (NYSE: SI) CEO Peter Loscher is getting ready to implement aggressive earnings targets for the company's senior managers, as well as thousands of job cuts, reported the Financial Times (subscription required).
Investors may now be looking at AT&T (NYSE: T) as a "high-quality stock for the long haul," says Justin Hellman of Value Line.
While many investors may be looking at Clinical Data's (NASDAQ: CLDA) possible blockbuster antidepressant drug and genetic test, they are banking on the company's Chairman Randal Kirk, who controls 40% of the stock.
MoneyGram International (NYSE: MGI) may be looking for buyers, and John Bendall, CEO of Hermitage Capital, thinks it is worth $30 a share.
The office of the Massachusetts secretary of state is investigating whether Bear Stearns (NYSE: BSC) improperly traded mortgage-backed securities for its own account with two hedge funds that failed this past summer, without notifying in advance the funds independent directors, reported the Wall Street Journal.
The Schork Report's Stephen Schork sees an oil correction coming and predicted oil in the $65-$68 range, according to the Wall Street Journal's "Heard on the Street" column.
OTHER PAPERS:
Insurer Aetna (NYSE: AET) has instituted a tighter reimbursement policy for Amgen's (NASDAQ: AMGN) anemia drugs, creating a setback for Amgen, reported the Los Angeles Times.
A consortium led by Icelandic investor Baugur is interested in making an offer for Saks (NYSE: SKS), reported the New York Post, but Saks will not consider a sale until the credit market improves.
Troubled Sprint Nextel Corporation (NYSE: S) is searching for a replacement for CEO Gary Forsee, and expects to have a new person in place by December, reported the Wall Street Journal.
Two Bear Stearns Companies (NYSE: BSC) collapsed mortgage related hedge funds, that lost $1.6B, have drawn an investigation from the U.S. attorney in Brooklyn, NY, reported the Wall Street Journal.
The Financial Times reported that the U.K. economy will be affected by the global credit crisis, according to Chancellor of the exchequer Alistair Darling, who said that while the U.K. economy is in a strong position to ride out the impact, growth projections will be lowered from the current 2.5%-3%.
Sotheby's (NYSE: BID) has benefited from Wall Street's equity market gains, with high-end investors piling money into art, and Rommel Dionisio of Wedbush Morgan Securities sees the stock going to $60 in a year.
Amid concern that it might miss the Street's Q3 forecast, is Polycom (NYSE: PLCM) oversold at $26? Yes, says Greg MacArthur, president of investment outfit Viewpoint2000.
Stereotaxis (NASDAQ: STXS) makes a computerized magnetically controlled navigation system that guides devices used in minimally invasive cardiac arrhythmia surgery, and Standard & Poor's rates the stock a Buy, in part because of its order backlog of $55 million.
It was revealed yesterday that Terra Firma is among the potential bidders for Ford Motor Company's (NYSE: F) Jaguar and Land Rover brands, reported the Financial Times.
There is a 40% to 45% risk that a recession will be triggered by the housing market downturn in the U.S., the CEO of Freddie Mac (NYSE: FRE) warned, the Financial Times reported.
Investors looking for fast growth in the $110 billion business-enterprise telecom market are betting on Time Warner Telecom (NASDAQ: TWTC), which offers broadband connections for data, high-speed Web access, local voice, and long-distance service.
Plum Creek Timber (NYSE: PCL) is flying high despite the housing slump and market decline driven by the subprime mortgage crisis.
Universal Electronics Inc (NASDAQ: UEIC), which makes the remote controls for TVs and other appliances, has caught the Street's eye.
WEBSITES:
Unstrung.com reported that Cisco Systems Inc (NASDAQ: CSCO) is close to buying a WiMax base station company, according to sources, and one possible target is Alvarion (NASDAQ: ALVR).
Yahoo! (NASDAQ: YHOO) is reportedly going to reduce the amount of money and effort it spends on premium services related to music, games, TV, and movies, reported TechCrunch.com.
The Financial Times reported that Chinese PC maker Lenovo Group (OTC: LNVGY) is open to acquiring companies, but buying companies is not a top priority, according to Lenovo CEO Bill Amelio.
OTHER PAPERS:
The Guardian reported that Google Inc (NASDAQ: GOOG) is considering a move into the U.K. wireless market after regulator Ofcom proposed taking back over a third of the mobile phone spectrum that Vodafone Group (NYSE: VOD) and O2 have been using for 22 years to auction it for new entrants.
How much higher can Apple Inc (NADSAQ: AAPL) go? Of the 27 analysts who track Apple, 23 still recommend buying it, 4 rate it a hold, while none advise selling it.
A week after Boone Pickens disclosed a 9.9% stake in InterOil Corporation (NYSE: IOC), the stock gushed from $28 on Aug. 8 to $40.75 on Aug. 13, the day the oil-and-gas explorer disclosed it found evidence of oil in its Elk-2 well in Papua New Guinea.
Bioenvision Inc (NASDAQ: BIVN), the small biotech that Genzyme Corporation (NASDAQ: GENZ) agreed to acquire in May at $5.60 a share, may not close on the deal unless Genzyme raises its offer.
"The behavior in what we are observing in the last seven weeks is identical in many respects to what we saw in 1998, what we saw in the stock market crash of 1987, I suspect what we saw in the land boom collapse of 1837 and certainly [the bank panic] 1907," said Alan Greenspan, the former Federal Reserve chairman, reported the Wall Street Journal.
In an attempt to reverse slow North American sales of Gatorade, PepsiCo Inc (NYSE: PEP) is launching a low calorie version, reported the Wall Street Journal.
OTHER PAPERS:
British arms manufacturer BAE Systems (OTC: BAESY) will reportedly receive a GBP20B deal next week to supply 72 Eurofighter Typhoon jets to Saudi Arabia, reported the U.K. Times.
British telecom company Vodafone Group (NYSE: VOD) is considering buying the Italian and Spanish operations of Swedish telecom company Tele2, reported the Guardian.
NYSE Euronext Inc (NYSE: NYX) runs cash equity exchanges in five countries and six derivative markets worldwide, and Birkelbach Investment Securities feels the stock is "very undervalued."
The outlook for Access Pharmaceuticals Inc (NASDAQ: ACCP) and ProLindac has vastly improved, said Steven Rouhandeh, CEO of SCO Financial Group, which owns a 30% stake in the company.
NeoStem Inc (NYSE: NBS) is a tiny company that specializes in collecting, processing, and storing stem cells from healthy adults for their personal medical use, and Equity Dynamics is positive on the company's technology.
Amid mounting criticism for its role in the subprime crisis, McGraw Hill Companies Inc (NYSE: MHP) replaced Kathleen Corbet, the president of Standard & Poors, with Deven Sharma, a McGraw Hill senior VP who has been with S&P since the end of last year, reported the Wall Street Journal.
Barron's Online's "Inside Scoop" column reported that Aeropostale Inc (NYSE: ARO) CFO Michael Cunningham sold $2.1M in stock Monday at an average price of $22.43 per share, according to SEC data.
OTHER PAPERS:
Indian IT outsourcing companies Infosys Technologies (NASDAQ: INFY) and Wipro Limited (NYSE: WIT) have reportedly both shown interest in buying out the US-based high-end analytics company MarketRx, which is believed to be worth between $150M and $160M, reported the Economic Times.
According to people familiar with the matter, Home Depot Inc (NYSE: HD) was close to accepting about $1.2B less for the sale of its wholesale distribution business to three private-equity firms, but there was uncertainty about whether the deal would close by last night's deadline, reported the Wall Street Journal (subscription required).
Ford Motor Company (NYSE: F) CEO Alan Mulally urged the Federal Reserve to stimulate the economy and focus on economic growth, reported the Financial Times (subscription required).
OTHER PAPERS:
British energy company BP plc (NYSE: BP) is warning that a fierce environmental campaign may force it to scrap a $3.8B expansion at one of America's biggest oil refineries, reported the U.K. Times.
Spirits company Diageo plc (NYSE: DEO) may be the perfect tonic for jittery markets, and could appreciate 20% to 25% annually for several years, said Randy Haase of Baron Fifth Avenue Growth Fund.
As household budgets get squeezed, consumers are likely to spend more at discount retailers - and TJX Companies Inc (NYSE: TJX), owner of T.J . Maxx, is one of the best bets.
In September, Arena Pharmaceuticals Inc (NASDAQ: ARNA) will announce 6-month safety review for its lead drug, lorcaserin, an obesity drug, which is in a large phase III test.
Barron's Online's (subscription required) "Inside Scoop" column reported that American Express Company (NYSE: AXP) Director Jan Leschly spent $2M on 32,000 shares -- the largest purchase at American Express in four years.
Electronic Arts Inc (NASDAQ: ERTS) and Hasbro Inc (NYSE: HAS) have joined forces to create electronic versions of popular board games such as Monopoly and Scrabble, according to the Wall Street Journal (subscription required).
Another former Ford Motor Company (NYSE: F) executive, Sir Nick Scheele, has joined the bidding war for the company's Jaguar and Land Rover divisions, reported the Financial Times (subscription required).
British retail chain WH Smith is among several companies seeking to buy the U.K. operations of troubled bookseller Borders Group Inc (NYSE: BGP) , reported the Telegraph.
People are buying Marshall & Ilsley Corporation (NYSE: MI) because it is a bargain when you consider that Marshall is spinning off to shareholders its traditional banking and processing business in Q4.
One safe and steady stock in these volatile markets may be Iron Mountain Inc (NYSE: IRM), the world's largest provider of information storage and protection, whose business has been rock-solid and whose stock has kicked up despite the market's wild swings.
Shinhan Financial Group (NYSE: SHG), which has very solid credit metrics and top-quality loan portfolios, is attracting positive attention.
According to Barron's Online's (subscription required) "Inside Scoop" column, Blockbuster Inc (NYSE: BBI) CEO James Keyes purchased 679,250 class A shares on Monday at an average price of $4.42 per share.
The New York Times reported that British mining company Anglo American plc (NASDAQ: AAUKD) is going to begin the process of selling Tarmac, with possible buyers including Orascom Construction Industries, Lafarge Coppee (NYSE: LR), and Cemex (NYSE: CX).
USA Technologies Inc (NASDAQ: USAT) is the largest maker of the e-port devices that enable vending machines selling soft drinks, snacks, and laundry products to accept plastic, and the company has only begun to penetrate the market, according to CEO George Jensen.
SemBiosys Genetics, which trades in Toronto under the symbol SBS, is developing a way to make insulin from safflower.
Thanks to to the debt squeeze, Kohlberg Kravis Roberts & Co., for one, may have to put off its own IPO, reported the Wall Street Journal (subscription required).
The production of biofuels is having a "material impact" on raw materials for food production, Kellogg Company (NYSE: K) CEO David Mackay said, reported the Financial Times (subscription required).
OTHER PAPERS:
Coca-Cola's (NYSE: KO) suit charging PepsiCo Inc (NYSE: PEP) with patent infringement related to a bag that dispenses syrup for fountain drinks was dismissed by a federal judge, reported the Associated Press.
From BusinessWeek's "Inside Wall Street" column:
Is Starbucks Corporation (NASDAQ: SBUX) on the way back up? Georges Yared of Yared Investment Research, who started buying when shares hit $25, sees the stock snapping back.
Sweden's Elekta, which trades in Stockholm, is drawing more attention from American investors.
Where can one find an underpriced bank? Consider Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria, Spain's second-largest, which provides financial and investment services in Europe, the U.S., and Latin America.
Barron's Online's (subscription required) "Inside Scoop" reported that a batch of sales at Alcoa Inc (NYSE: AA) has followed Alcoa's withdrawal of its offer to purchase Alcan Inc (NYSE: AL): from July 13-17, four senior executives grossed $41.3M by selling 877,600 shares on the open market at per-share prices ranging from $46.67 to $47.47, according to SEC data.
Andrew McKelveey, the founder and former CEO of Monster Worldwide Inc (NASDAQ: MNST) was allegedly involved in the backdating of stock option grants for employees, reported the Wall Street Journal (subscription required).
OTHER PAPERS:
Vodafone Group plc (NYSE: VOD) CEO Arun Sarin made a concession to rebel shareholders yesterday by promising to release value from Verizon Wireless, a joint venture in which Vodafone has a 45% stake, reported the U.K. Times.
From BusinessWeek's "Inside Wall Street" column:
Activist shareholders are putting pressure on Brink's Company (NYSE: BCO) to spin-off its home security unit, so that it can trade independently of the armored cars.