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Scotts, Pilgrim's Pride and Avis slide on tough conditions

While Scotts Miracle Gro Co. (NYSE: SMG) Monday blamed a slow start to spring and recalls for a drop in second-quarter profits, Pilgrims Pride Corp. (NYSE: PPC) said its second-quarter loss widened due to rising feed costs and a restructuring charge. And analysts expect lower consumer spending on leisure travel and a drop in business travel to drag on Avis Budget Group Inc. (NYSE: CAR) first-quarter results when it reports on Tuesday.

Discounting charges, Marysville, Ohio-based Scotts reported it made $77.7 million, or $1.19 per share for the quarter ended March 29, two cents better than the forecast of analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial. Revenue fell 4% to $958 million. The company also warned that profits would likely fall below Wall Street forecasts for the year.

Pilgrim's Pride, the nation's largest chicken producer, lost $111.5 million, or $1.67 per share, in the three months ended March 29 compared with a loss of $40.1 million, or 60 cents per share, a year earlier. Revenue rose to $2.10 billion. Analysts had expected a loss of 81 cents per share on $2.09 billion in sales. The company said feed costs would probably push the company to another loss in the current quarter as well.

Analysts expect Parsippany, New Jersey-based Avis to break even on a per share basis, on $1.37 billion revenue. In last year's first quarter, the company posted profit of 12 cents per share. It's unclear how much of an effect the current economic conditions will have on Avis's full-year 2008 results, but in April, rival Hertz Global Holdings Inc. (NYSE: HTZ) managed to post an adjusted quarterly profit that beat Wall Street predictions.

Shares of Scotts ended the day up 1.2%, but fell nearly 12% in after-hours trading to $30.00. Pilgrim's Pride fell less than 1% during the day, then another 1.1% after hours to $23.59. Avis also continued its slide into after-hours trading, down to $13.49.


Ford shares sink as Toyota takes U.S. number-two spot

Troubled car maker Ford Motor (NYSE: F) today saw its stock fall to lows not seen since way back in 1986, as traders continue to express concerns over the company's ability to compete with its rival Toyota Motor (NYSE: TM).

Yesterday, Wall Street got the bad news that many of us had been expecting but hoped never to hear: for the first time since 1931, Ford lost its grip on the number two ranking for U.S. auto sales in 2007. The company showed a massive 12 percent drop for the year, and has been replaced by Toyota as the second best-selling auto maker in the United States. Shares have tumbled, hitting an intraday low of $6.00 a share, which is the lowest the stock has traded in more than 20 years.

Just how hard has the company's market value degraded over the past decade? Consider this... in 1998 the company boasted a $68 billion market value, compared with its current value of "only" $13 billion. This is definitely a tough time for the car maker which less than a decade ago was responsible for 25 percent of all new cars sold in the nation.

Continue reading Ford shares sink as Toyota takes U.S. number-two spot

Honda to invest further in hybrids

Despite a shaky economy where recession concerns gain ground each day, car demand is booming for at least one major auto maker. Car maker Honda anticipates that even in a recession, people will continue to need cars, and from this point of view, Honda anticipates its global sales will jump 6% this year to a record 3.76 million vehicles, helped by strong demand in the U.S., Europe and Asia.

According to Takeo Fukui, the automaker's president, Honda plans to invest in research for hybrids and other new technology in Japan to face "the competition in hybrids" which has just begun. Let's remember that Toyota has already made the Prius, which is currently the top-selling hybrid.

Honda intends to create a new hybrid model that runs on gas and electricity, and its sales are expected to reach 200,000 vehicles a year. The company's strategy will be based more on hybrid offerings as overall hybrid sales are estimated to bring about 10 percent of Honda's sales in the next four years.

Continue reading Honda to invest further in hybrids

General Motors is ramping up the Chevy Volt

General Motors logoVenture capital is flowing, engineers are chomping at the bit and layman sources claim that mechanical components of the Chevy Volt are already being road tested on the streets of Detroit. General Motors (NYSE: GM) is not letting anything get in the way of its plans to place a successful electric car on the streets of America and the world by 2010. A report by RedHerring outlines the broad and powerful collection of top tier companies which are coming together to help GM bring its mission to fruition.

Two new research projects targeted towards electric car development were recently announced by General Electric (NYSE: GE) and are specifically geared towards the needs of the Chevy Volt. GE has been asked to design high density electric capacitors and hybrid drive train components in pursuit of our first generation of truly plug-in electric cars. It would seem that GM, GE and the Department of Energy are not willing to settle for an automobile with simple hybrid status. The goal would appear to be full blown electric automobiles at a price within reach of the public. Once the car is built, add the current advances in solar technology and you'll have an automobile that can be charged from a solar powered battery array at home.

Continue reading General Motors is ramping up the Chevy Volt

Toyota (TM) attempts to chill aggressive General Motors (GM)

GM logoAlthough united in their stance against government dialog regarding Corporate Average Fuel Economy standards (CAFE), General Motors Corp.(NYSE: GM) and Toyota Motors (NYSE: TM) are squaring off in a head butting match over just exactly how the new vision for hybrid automobiles will take final form. A WSJ.com report (subscription required) briefly examines the differences between the two companies and their visions for target travel range for electric-only vehicles.

Toyota representatives indicate that their tolerance level for electric only travel range is settling into the 10 to 20 mile range while GM executives claim that their target range is closer to 40 miles. The debate seems to be taking place around lithium-ion batteries and the many questions which still remain as to the long term viability of that power source technology. Pointing to the alleged tendency for lithium-ion batteries to overheat, Toyota leadership appears unwilling to state that the technology is fully road ready. GM, for its part, is still investigating its battery options also.

GM executives are a bit perturbed at the apparent lack of media coverage regarding the fact that many of the vehicles which Toyota has leaned upon for its surge ahead of GM in total sales actually have mileage ratings below those of their General Motors counterparts. GM feels that Toyota is simply throwing up a smoke screen to the facts and is muddying the common waters in the pursuit of a viable electric vehicle. GM also seems to believe that Toyota is simply attempting to obscure the facts regarding actual over the road mileage performances of both companies.

We are still a long way from seeing effective electric vehicle deployment but all parties involved are to be commended for their efforts. There are an abundance of options and opportunities to be exploited now in the electric vehicle arena and given the steep increase in crude prices, those opportunities shall only become more lucrative. It is of major importance now that the big players refrain from corporate politics and simply stick to the business at hand.

Buying a car in China now easier

In a recent survey jointly conducted by The British Council and a China daily, 84% of young Chinese want to purchase a car (despite the fact that 80% of them are concerned with global warning).

General Motors Corporation (NYSE: GM) hopes to capitalize on that 84%. Shanghai General Motors' joint venture with Shanghai Automotive have announced the creation of interest-free car loans, as they fight for additional market share in the competitive Chinese market. In the first six months of 2007, General Motor brands have lagged in China behind the sales increases for passenger vehicles. Sales for Shanghai GM were up 12%, while overall car sales in China climbed 26%.

The "Buick Elite Wealth-Management Program," as its called, will try to lure buyers into financing in a nation where many prefer to buy cars with cash. GM officials said they were unaware of the initiative before it was announced to the Chinese media, the Wall Street Journal reported.

Auto recall list for 2007 is suprising

BusinessWeek put together a list of the most recalled new cars in 2007. What is surprising is that four out of the top five vehicles were imports, and not domestic cars. Chrysler's (NYSE: DAI) Jeep Liberty, with 149,605 recalls, was the only domestic in the top 5. Chrysler had three other significant recalls, including the new Dodge Nitro, Jeep Wrangler and Chrysler Sebring. General Motors (NYSE: GM) had two vehicles recalled, while Ford's (NYSE: F) lone recall was from its Expedition line, and only totaled 10,000 SUVs.

Toyota's (NYSE: TM) Sequoia hit No. 2 on the recall list, with 533,000 vehicles recalled. This is a surprising improvement from last year, where Toyota recalled nearly 700,000 vehicles.

The new Volkswagen (OTC: VLKAY) Beetle took No. 1 on the recall list; triggered by the potential for a brake light switch to malfunction in over 1 million vehicles if it was installed incorrectly.

Take a look at BusinessWeek's slide show here.

Option update: Lowe's & Pep Boy's volatility up into EPS

Lowe's (NYSE: LOW) implied volatility of 38 above 26-week average of 33 into EPS. LOW is expected to report EPS of .61 cents on 8/20, according to Thomson First Call. Deutsche Bank said on 8/16, "while we are slightly reducing our 2Q and FY EPS on a weak environment, we note that consensus already reflects conservative sales and EPS views." LOW September option implied volatility of 38 is above its 26-week average of 33 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price fluctuations.

Pep Boys (NYSE: PBY) September implied volatility Elevated at 61 into EPS. PBY, an operator of automotive retail and service chains, has a market cap of $784 million. PBY is expected to report EPS on 8/22. Morgan Joseph CO says, "update on potential sale/leaseback of property possible. During its last conference call, PBY confirmed a 2004 appraisal that valued its owned property as around $900 million and belief that today it is worth in excess of $1 billion." PBY September option implied volatility of 61 is above its 26-week average of 38 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price risk.

Daily options update is provided by stock specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com.

Avis (CAR) drives to a profit

After the bell, Avis Budget Group (NYSE: CAR) reported quarterly earnings. Several months ago, Avis was part of the Cendant breakup. Cendant, a poorly run conglomerate, held many different companies in a variety of industries with seemingly no synergies whatsoever. Understandably, Wall Street demanded a breakup as the company's components were discounted due to the "conglomerate discount" and operations languished due to a lack of accountability.

Today's earnings report was a perfect example of how companies are able to perform much better if operated independently for a variety of reasons -- most notably increased accountability and better incentive programs. As you can see from the chart on the right, the stock rallied very nicely following it's spin-off but has since sold off.

For the quarter, Avis earned 23 cents per share vs. a loss of 64 cents per share during the same period last year. While the company's performance came in below analyst estimates, it displays the power of the company's cost-cutting initiatives. I think the cost-cutting initiatives, alongside mediocre revenue growth, are going to power the company's earnings higher during the next several years. For example, analysts expect EPS of $1.22 this year and $1.78 next year on just 6% revenue growth.

Hybrid sales on record pace, Toyota (TM) Prius dominates

J.D. Power and Associates said that 187,000 hybrids were sold in the first half of 2007, according to USA Today, which accounted for a minuscule 2.3% of all new vehicle sales. Despite the recent slowdown in auto sales, the auto information company expects total sales of 345,000 hybrids for the year, a 35% jump from 2006.

The best-selling hybrid model continues to be the Toyota (NYSE: TM) Prius, which accounted for just over half of all hybrids sold. J.D. Power told the newspaper that Prius sales received a boost from incentives of up to $2,000 per vehicle, which offset the drop in federal tax breaks for hybrids this year. Incentives were something Detroit and the "Big Three" were hoping to avoid this summer, and became one of the main reasons domestic market share fell below 50% for the first time in history.

In the next few years, the competition in the hybrid segment will intensify. J.D. Power estimates there will be as many as 65 hybrid models in the market by 2010, with more than half of them being trucks. It also projects sales of nearly 750,000 units, nearly double the expectations of 2007.

What's not shocking to read is that Toyota, a foreign car manufacturer, holds top billing in hybrid sales. American manufacturers again are late to the game. What is shocking is that despite soaring gas prices, hybrid sales totaled a meager 2.3% of all new vehicles. In three years projections push this out to 5%, which is still too low. If Americans want to complain about high gas prices and how they can't take the pain of paying $3.50 a gallon every week, maybe they should do something proactive and buy a hybrid.

Auto parts manufacturers retrench

The domestic automotive business has been beaten and torn by foreign competition for several years now, forcing many auto-parts producers, such as Tower Automotive Inc. and Delphi Corp. (OTC: DPHIQ) into bankruptcy proceedings.

A growing number of auto-part manufacturers are leaving the U.S. automobile industry altogether, divesting auto-related businesses and diversifying into other, more profitable industries. The Wall Street Journal highlighted the latest companies [subscription required] trying to make the switch to stay alive:

  • SPX Corp (NYSE: SPW), a North Carolina auto manufacturer that once earned 90% of its revenue from auto-related businesses, now earns less than 3% from auto-related businesses after multiple divestitures and acquisitions. SPX Corp is now an infrastructure-related products and service manufacturer for the global power market.
  • Pittsburgh-based glass and coatings manufacturer PPG Industries Inc (NYSE: PPG) has put its windshield business up for sale. The company instead will rely on its high-tech coatings business and optical & specialty material segments that offer long-term growth potential.

Continue reading Auto parts manufacturers retrench

Automobile futures: Hybrids vs. plug-ins

Toyota Motors (NYSE: TM) is launching the first U.S. tests of its plug-in hybrid technology in two converted Prius hybrids. The test cars will run on nickel-metal hydride batteries for seven miles before a gas engine kicks in.

Although seven miles is nothing to rejoice about, other automakers are also developing plug-in vehicles that are more technologically advanced:
  • General Motors (NYSE: GM) is developing the Volt plug-in, with hopes of reaching 40 miles of electric-powered travel with the new lithium-ion batteries.
  • Ford Motor (NYSE: F) announced earlier this month it plans to give 20 Escape Hybrid SUVs modified as plug-ins to Southern California Edison for testing.
  • Chrysler Group (NYSE: DCX) modified several Sprinter delivery vans as plug-ins, with one designated for newspaper delivery.

Continue reading Automobile futures: Hybrids vs. plug-ins

Ford, a symbol of America's failing auto industry

Honda Motor Co (NYSE: HMC) is increasing its capacity by 15% in North America to keep up with the growing demand for its fuel-efficient cars. According to the Associated Press, President Takeo Fukui told reporters that annual production will hit 1.62 million vehicles by 2008, up from 1.4 million. A new auto plant will be built in Indiana, Honda's seventh in North America, and is slated to begin production in late 2008, Fukui said.

Overall, demand has been healthy for Honda's cars in America. Honda has a reputation for good mileage at a time when gas prices are reaching record levels. In comparison, American carmakers are fighting a losing battle against Honda and other foreign carmakers to regain its once-superior positioning. As a group, the market share of Detroit's Big Three slid in June to 50.2% from 56.1% a year earlier.

The Big Three are suffering from a problem they chose nearly a decade ago: focus on inefficient sport-utility vehicles and pickup trucks, instead of fuel-efficient cars.

Continue reading Ford, a symbol of America's failing auto industry

Analyst downgrades 6-25-07: AMGN, BWLD, LTD and NVDA

MOST NOTEWORTHY: AVX Corp (AVX), Vishay Intertechnology Inc (VSH), Buffalo Wild Wings (BWLD) and three car-rental companies were today's noteworthy downgrades:
  • American Technology downgraded both AVX Corp (NYSE: AVX) and Vishay Intertechnology Inc (NYSE: VSH) to Sell from Buy after channel checks suggested weaker than expected demand for the June quarter from Europe, EMS, and distribution.
  • Sanders Morris believes investors should take profits in Buffalo Wild Wings Inc (NASDAQ: BWLD), cutting shares to Sell from Buy, and sees limited catalysts on the horizon that could drive shares higher.
OTHER DOWNGRADES:
  • Lehman downgraded Amgen Inc(NASDAQ: AMGN) to EqualWeight from Overweight.
Analyst summaries provided by TheFlyOnTheWall.com (subscription required).

Lawyers and the $54 million pants

America is a "sue-happy" country. Where else can you sue the dry cleaners for $54 million because they lost your Hickey Freeman pants. You think I am joking; but this is a case of life being stranger than fiction. A Washington DC judge (who in my opinion should know better) is suing a dry cleaners that lost his pair of pants.

For a moment last week my trust in the American legal system began to fail as Paris Hilton, heiress of Hilton Hotels (NYSE: HLT) fortune, spent a heart-wrenching three days in jail before being released by the sheriff for "medical reasons." Then suddenly my faith was restored as the judge sent her back to jail.

Well it didn't last long. It seems this week a pair of lost pants is worth crying over -- and $54 million. I guess America is land of the free and home of too many lawyers. Maybe this is why I respect Vice President Cheney: I mean, we all talk about the problem with lawyers, but at least he shot one.

Continue reading Lawyers and the $54 million pants

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IndexesChangePrice
DJIA-6.3511,377.86
NASDAQ-6.032,288.41
S&P 500+1.101,274.80

Last updated: July 09, 2008: 11:28 AM

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