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Comfort Zone Investing: Six smart ideas for stocks in 2009

Ted Allrich is the founder of The Online Investor and author of the book: Comfort Zone Investing: Build Wealth and Sleep Well at Night. In this weekly column, he'll offer advice to investors who are just getting started.

For a better investing year in 2009, think about championship basketball. Winners at every level have one thing in common: defense. It's defense that wins rings. And this year, in the stock market, defense will keep you alive. It will be the kind of year where making a little money makes you a winner. Think defensively until there are clear signs that the economy is improving.

First, keep your expectations low. No one knows when the current economic cycle will end and begin to heal. What we do know is that all indicators keep going lower: housing starts, employment, consumer spending, housing prices. While the market discounts good news well in advance (some 6 to 9 months ahead of the real numbers), there's no indication from any front that better days are ahead. We know the new administration will spend money to create jobs so more spending power will be in the economy. We know there will most likely be tax breaks for companies to encourage production and hiring. But none of that is in place. Investors have to wait and see how and if these develop and what effect they will have on the economy and on stocks. It might take all year. Or longer. If it does, the stock market won't be doing too much.

Continue reading Comfort Zone Investing: Six smart ideas for stocks in 2009

CH Energy Group: Brownout, not a blackout

The early months of 2007 have not been good for the stock of CH Energy Group Inc. (NYSE: CHG); the stock has dropped nearly 15% from its 52-week high due to a weak fourth quarter and to pessimistic earnings forecasts for 2007. CHG, a utilities company that services the Central Hudson Valley of New York, blames warmer winters for a decline in earnings and profits.

While CHG has indeed suffered a bit because of these winters, I wouldn't rule this company out, and it might be a good stock to buy in the near future. If you look at CHG's historical prices, its stock tends to dip in the early parts of the year in anticipation of a weaker summer, and I think the stock is currently suffering a bit from the normal cycles of its industry. But as we've seen this spring, weather is also highly unreliable and predictions for a warm winter next year may not come true.

I also like CHG because of its investments in clean tech energy. Through its subsidiary Central Hudson Enterprises Corporation, CHG is investing in wind farms, ethanol, a wood-fired electricity plant, and other types of renewable energy. This will provide opportunities for growth and for cost-savings down the road as green energy grows more popular.

If you're a bit uneasy about the earnings forecast on this one, you can take some reassurance from the dividend; at $2.16 a share, the yield is 4.6%, which will either protect you from the downside or greatly improve your profit.

Type of stock: A utilities company in the Hudson Valley of New York with some interesting investments in renewable energy.

Price target:
CHG is currently trading at $48.26, toward the low end of its 52-week range, and I think it would be safe to buy now and hold it through the end of the year. If you want to be really careful, you could wait for it to drop to $45. I'm not sure it will get there, but if it does, I'd grab it.

Hilary Kramer is a financial editor and money coach for AOL and an authority on investing. Visit her at www.hilarykramer.com.

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Last updated: November 24, 2009: 04:39 AM

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