Last week, Bank of Montreal (NYSE: BMO), one of Canada's oldest and largest banks, reported growth in its fiscal fourth-quarter earnings. But it may be the only one that does, as at least two of the Canadian banks scheduled to report fourth-quarter numbers this week have already released preliminary results that warn of lower earnings due to debt write-downs and trading losses.

Analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters expect Toronto-based Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (NYSE: CM) to post earnings 42.6% lower than a year ago, or $1.28 per share. CIBC beat estimates by a penny in the third quarter, but missed by a penny in the period before that. The bank faces a class-action lawsuit related to investments in collateralized debt obligations consisting of U.S. subprime mortgages. Shares have climbed 20.7% from a recent 52-week low of $39.52, but are down 37.8% in the past three months.

Toronto Dominion Bank (NYSE: TD), Bank of Nova Scotia (NYSE: BNS), and Royal Bank of Canada (NYSE: RY) are expected to report more modest earnings declines of $1.01 per share, $0.73 per share, and $0.83 per share, respectively. All three Toronto-based banks topped estimates in the third quarter. Toronto Dominion and RBC have recently announced plans to offer shares in order to raise capital. Toronto Dominion and Scotiabank have been trading near 52-week lows, and their share prices are down around 39% in the past three months. But only Toronto Dominion has a consensus buy recommendation from analysts.

The worst-case scenario regarding the price oil just became, well, a little worse.

On Thursday CIBC World Markets Chief Economist Jeff Rubin said oil production will barely grow over the next five years, and that shortfall, combined with solid emerging market demand, will drive oil to $150 per barrel by 2010 and $200 per barrel by 2012, and The Financial Post reported Thursday.

Just as bad, and despite easing gasoline demand in the United States, U.S. gasoline prices will climb to as much as $7 per gallon by 2012, Rubin said, and The Financial Post reported.

American Express (NYSE: AXP) will record a $440 million charge due to rising delinquencies and increased assumption of future loss characteristics.

AXP is recently trading at $44.67 in pre-open trading, below its close of $48.92.

CIBC says: "We believe AXP will still perform better than its financial peers in 2008. However given our grim outlook on the rest of the sector, this may not be saying much."

AXP overall option implied volatility of 40 is above its 26-week average of 33 according to Track Data, suggesting larger risk.

Options Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com

LDK Solar (NYSE: LDK) reported Q3 EPS of 37 cents, meeting expectation.

LDK Q3 revenue rose 60% quarter over quarter to $158.7 million.

CIBC says: "We would look to become more aggressive on the shares at around high $40s/low $50s level, once the valuation premium dissipated."

LDK January option implied volatility of 133 and March of 107 is above its 23-week average of 103 according to Track Data, suggesting larger risk.

Options Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com

Oracle (NASDAQ: ORCL) is expected to announce Q2 EPS on December 19th.

CIBC said on December 13th: "With more than 50% of license and total revenues coming from international markets, we believe ORCL is somewhat insulated from a potential NT slowdown in domestic IT spending." CIBC has a $24 price target on ORCL.

ORCL December 22.5 straddle is priced at $1.55. ORCL January option implied volatility of 39 is above its 26-month average of 31 according to Track Data, suggesting larger risk.

Options Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com

It was a nice Friday for Neutral Tandem Inc. (NASDAQ: TNDM). That is, the company's IPO got a warm reception from Wall Street -- surging 44.86% to $20.28.

You probably haven't heard of this company. The reason is that Neutral Tandem provides underlying technologies to wireline, cable, and VOIP providers. Basically, it allows for a smooth exchange of traffic across networks (which, by the way, is no easy feat). As a result, customers realize cost savings, improved network reliability and better redundancy.

Neutral Tandem has 79 contracts and the network carries 3.4 billion minutes of traffic per month.

And the growth rate has been impressive. From 2005 to 2006, revenues spiked 88.9% to $52.9 million. Neutral Tandem even posted net income of $4.7 million.

The underwriters on the IPO were Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS) and CIBC (NYSE: CM).

You can find the prospectus at the SEC website. Also, if you want to find information on other IPOs, then visit DealProfiles.com.

Tom Taulli is the author of various books, including The Complete M&A Handbook and The Edgar Online Guide to Decoding Financial Statements.

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Openwave Systems Inc (NASDAQ: OPWV), Trump Entertainment Resorts Inc (NASDAQ: TRMP) and Accredited Home Lenders Holding Co (NASDAQ: LEND) were today's noteworthy downgrades:

• Openwave Systems Inc (NASDAQ: OPWV) was downgraded to Underperform from Buy at Needham, as the firm no longer believes the company's assets and balance sheet are worth $11/share and expects the franchise to be again disrupted due to layoffs and asset sales. Openwave was also downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at JP Morgan, to Hold from Buy at Wedbush after no superior bid emerged to Harbinger's, and to Sector Underperformer from Outperformer at CIBC World Markets, which cited reduced prospects of a buyout.

• Trump Entertainment Resorts Inc (NASDAQ: TRMP) was downgraded to Underperform from Peer Perform at Bear Stearns citing valuation as upside from a takeout at current levels is remote.

• Accredited Home Lenders Holding Co (NASDAQ: LEND) was downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Keefe Bruyette & Woods following its acquisition by Lone Star for $400M.

OTHER DOWNGRADES:

• Bebe Stores Inc (NASDAQ: BEBE) was downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Friedman Billings citing new merchandise that lacks a significant casual component to drive business, tough comps, aggressively planned inventory levels for 2H, and the potential for sustained negative comps during the next few quarters.

• Friedman Billings also downgraded Aladdin Knowledge Systems Limited (NASDAQ: ALDN) to Market Perform from Outperform based on valuation and challenges in the U.S. market.

• General Mills Inc (NYSE: GIS) was downgraded to Peer Perform from outperform at Bear Stearns on valuation and concerns with the turnaround plan for Big G cereal division.

Analyst summaries provided by TheFlyOnTheWall.com (subscription required).

Despite Time Warner Inc. (NYSE: TWX) bringing to Google Inc (NASDAQ: GOOG) its concerns over potential copyright issues on YouTube, and despite all of the efforts the company is taking to streamline its operations, not "every" analyst is finding a new fresh positive bias on the stock.

This morning CIBC noted a lack of confidence in the ongoing turnaround and direction of Time Warner's AOL unit. The firm lowered its stock price target down to $20 from its previous $21 target, and maintained its Sector Perform rating on the stock. It feels the sum of the parts is now around that $20 level.

This follows the Merrill Lynch upgrade yesterday. So far the street has taken little interest in this research note this morning. CIBC is actually not even listed as one of the top eight analysts according to StarMine.

TWX is down 21 cents, or 1%, to $19.03 at 2:45 p.m. today after putting in a new 52-week high for a closing price of $19.24 yesterday.