It's just weeks away -- a potentially big change for the television show that transfixes America. But how many people would watch it if the show's superstar decided to take a hike? That's not just a troubling question for viewers of the show but for investors in the stock of the company that licenses it around the world. What show am I talking about? American Idol. Which star is thinking of leaving? Wait for it -- Simon Cowell. And what stock could take a beating if he leaves? CKX Inc (NASDAQ: CKXE).

Simon Cowell is thinking of leaving American Idol. According to MSNBC, Simon said "I'll make a decision about (whether to stay with the show) next year." Why would Simon leave? He claims it's not personality conflicts but the workload and his belief that the show could keep those demands going "for another 10 years." But if Simon leaves, would the show be as popular? Could the producers find someone else to be the harsh voice of reality?

That's an important question for investors in CKX. Way back in June 2007, CKX accepted a bid to go private in a $1.3 billion LBO led by its founder Robert Sillerman. But on November 4. 2008, that deal fell apart due to tightening credit conditions. This put Sillerman's 19X, which was leading the buyout, on the hook for a $37.5 million termination fee, which it said it would pay for with about 3.3 million shares of CKX common stock then valued at $11.08 per share and $500,000 in cash. The company said it will pay the fee in full within 30 days of the deal's termination date.

CNN.com reports that today marks the 30th anniversary of Elvis Presley's death...and still he pulled in some $40 million in 2006. That's second only to that other dead rocker, Nirvana's late, great Kurt Cobain.

There's only one little wrinkle to today's anniversary -- CKX Inc. (NASDAQ: CKXE) -- which owns the rights to Elvis and American Idol -- announced a $1.3 billion leveraged buyout in June. But DealBook reported yesterday that thanks to the seized-up credit markets, the CKX LBO may be just as dead as Elvis.

That's because CKX is trading 25% below the takeout price of $13.75 a share. Evidently, the market believes that come September, CKX will not be able to finance its deal. Regardless of the outcome, CKX will still enjoy the revenue stream from Elvis -- even though he left the building 30 years ago.

Peter Cohan is President of Peter S. Cohan & Associates, a management consulting and venture capital firm. He also teaches management at Babson College and edits The Cohan Letter. He has no financial interest in CKX.

The gleam of the American Idol brand is brighter than ever after CNNMoney.com reported that billionaire and media magnate Robert F.X. Sillerman made a successful bid to take the AI franchise owner, CKX Inc (NASDAQ: CKXE) private. CKX announced Friday it accepted the offer from a group led by its current CEO, Sillerman, for $1.3 billion. Since Sillerman and other board members already owned 46% of outstanding capital stock, sale approval was a slam dunk.

The offer of $13.75 per share carried a 29% premium. However, according to the Wall Street Journal's MarketBeat, this fell well short of the $20-25 value investors placed on the stock.

Other CKX holdings include the rights to Elvis Presley, his music and his Graceland estate, as well as the rights to the name, image, and likeness of Muhammad Ali.

The company is attempting to grow its Presley line by enlisting the help of Cirque du Soleil in creating Presley-themed shows. It already has a deal with MGM Mirage to stage a permanent, live Presley show on the Strip in Las Vegas beginning in 2009. CKX also operates the Heartbreak Hotel, near Graceland, which might be a good place for the stockholders who feel the sale price was low to commiserate.

The company also plans to extend its Idol franchise worldwide. Since Simon (who needs a last name?) is contracted to the company, as well as holding a seat on the board of directors, we can safely assume his involvement won't be affected by the transition.

I was outraged this morning when my local news station broadcast the results from last night's "American Idol" -- Melinda Doolittle was voted off.

Simon Cowell made his preferences clear on Tuesday night. He wanted Jordin Sparks off and expected two finalists: Doolittle for her consistently excellent singing and Blake Lewis for his risk taking. I am guessing he thought those two had the best chance to make him money through record sales. I would have preferred to see Lewis go since I find him a mediocre singer who uses -- what I find very annoying "beatboxing" -- to make up the difference.

So why did Doolittle lose? There is no way to find out why she got fewer votes but my hunch is that she lacks charisma. Lewis probably took up the Sanjaya Malakar slack with the 12 year old girls and 17-year old Sparks exudes confidence and talent. While Doolittle lacks that magical quality, there is no doubt that she can sing better than the two finalists.

And if her post-Idol career is anything like last season's #4, Chris Daughtry's, Doolittle will be fine. However, with Doolittle off the show, it may hurt the ratings a bit for Idol owner, CKX Inc. (NASDAQ: CKXE) and News Corp.'s (NYSE: NWS) Fox.

Peter Cohan is President of Peter S. Cohan & Associates, a management consulting and venture capital firm. He also teaches management at Babson College and edits The Cohan Letter. He has no financial interest in CKX or News Corp.

Last April 6th, I wrote up CKX Inc. (NASDAQ:CKXE) and invested in the company myself. The stock was at $12.78 and, at the time, I made CKX one of my Top Picks for 2006. Unfortunately the stock price hasn't gone much of anywhere at all: As of the close on Tuesday, February 20, it is now back up to $13.79, but l think this one is going to grow and will hit $20 this year.

CKX is involved in the entertainment and media businesses. The company represents "American Idol," manages entertainers through its MBST subsidiary, and makes money on the branding of historic entertainment icons like Elvis Presley and Muhammad Ali. The company is launching a snack-food line under Ali's nickname, "The Greatest of All Time," and is working to step up its promotion of Elvis to coincide with the 30th anniversary of his death. CKX also represents David and Victoria Beckham, which means it's expecting to cash in on the soccer star's widely publicized move to the Los Angeles Galaxy.

While the stock admittedly hasn't done what I'd expected, signs are pointing in the right direction. After suffering an operating loss in 2005, CKX's results in 2006 have been much improved, with revenues in each quarter above the respective quarters in 2005, and operating margins showing profit in each quarter so far. "American Idol" showed impressive growth last year, and as one of the most lucrative shows on the market, it is likely to continue to generate solid income for the foreseeable future.

To be sure, the entertainment industry is notoriously fickle, but CKX's CEO Robert Sillerman has an excellent track record and made a lot of money for me and other investors with SFX and SFXE (radio and live entertainment companies). This one is a risk to be sure, but if you have some money to take a chance with, it is a good bet. For those of us that already took the plunge more than a year ago, we may finally be seeing some green. Even technically, the stock seems to be well-positioned.

Type of stock: A media and entertainment company with some very high-profile clients, a strategy that will outshine and surprise, and a brilliant CEO that is just starting to turn profitable.

Price target: This stock is currently trading around $13. I think its going to get up to $20 this year and if you buy
now you could see a 50% return on your investment.

Hilary Kramer is a financial editor and money coach for AOL and an authority on investing. Visit her at www.hilarykramer.com