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Comcast's Slow Climb Continues

Cable/communications giant Comcast Corporation (CMCSA) took the long way home, to quote Supertramp, to get to $20, but it's arrived.

Comcast, which I first wrote about on April 22, 2009 at a price of $14.05 will likely post a 2010 revenue increase of 5-7%, with a similar increase in 2011, propelled higher by increased multi-service customers, higher video services revenue, and a rebound in advertising revenue. Margins should improve slightly.

Comcasts' most compelling metric? Subscribers: 22.9 million video, 16.7 million high speed internet, and 8.4 million digital phone. Comcast has also formalized its plan to buy a 51% joint-venture stake in NBC Universal (GE), which will contribute programming.

Continue reading Comcast's Slow Climb Continues

Douglass Winthrop picks for 2008: Nestle, Legg Mason, Comcast, Markel

Jay Winthrop of Douglass Winthrop Advisors LLC, a $250 million (assets under management) New York registered investment advisory firm, likes to buy stocks whose prices are so low that the odds of them benefiting from a positive surprise exceed those of losing from a negative one. Douglass Winthrop is ahead of the S&P year-to-date and has delivered "positive, tax-efficient results since inception in 2002." Through its 10% to 15% stock turnover, it offers investors lower expenses and taxes than its higher turnover "fast money" peers. As Winthrop summed it up: "Good things happen to cheap stocks."

Four stocks that he mentioned particularly caught my attention:

  • Nestle S A (OTC: NSRGY). Nestle has benefited from its investment in emerging markets -- giving it a strong brand and distribution presences in countries experiencing rapid growth. A significant share of its profits are generated in developing markets. And its core food business is cheap when its strategic investments are backed out. Nestle trades at a mere 13x to 14 x operating earnings -- which is lower than the value of stocks in its peer group. Finally, Nestle is capitalizing on the profitable and growing health and wellness trend.
  • Legg Mason (NYSE: LM). Legg Mason is a pre-eminent asset manager with $1 trillion under management. But its stock has declined due to temporary problems. Its Value Trust fund -- which had long outperformed the market under its manager Bill Miller -- has had two sub-par performing years in a row. And it's had troubles integrating a merger with Citigroup Inc.'s (NYSE: C) mutual fund unit. Winthrop also thinks Legg Mason has been hit by the overall decline in financials. However, he argues, Legg Mason trades at 1% of assets under management which is far below the 2% industry average. And its valuation is much less than that of newly public alternative investment managers.

Continue reading Douglass Winthrop picks for 2008: Nestle, Legg Mason, Comcast, Markel

Cable shares punished by Major League Baseball deal

Cable stocks were down a bit with the market this morning as Time Warner Inc. (NYSE:TWX), Time Warner Cable (TWC), and Comcast Corporation (NASDAQ:CMCSA) are all lower. The one bit of possibly troubling news is the potential agreement between Major League Baseball getting the exclusive "Away-Game" pact with DirectTV Group, Inc. (NYSE:DTV). The weak stock market is hurting even DirecTV, with DTV shares down over 1% right after the open.

For a satellite company to get an exclusive on away-games is simply flabergasting. This deal is certain to have many critics. DirecTV sent a letter to the FCC on Friday detailing its $700 million deal over a 7-year period starting in 2009. Senator John Kerry has also asked the FCC to investigate the deal.

The away-game package has been available through iNDemand for some time, but this would be exclusive to DirecTV and via the league's website. INHD is available as part of the high-def offerings from cable operators and is owned by INDEMAND Networks, whose shareholders are Comcast INDEMAND Holdings, Inc., Cox Communications Holdings, Inc., and Time Warner Entertainment - Advance/Newhouse Partnership.

Good stocks, lousy reputations: HAL, XOM, CMCSA, GM, MO

If you're looking for a good stock, buy shares in a company with a lousy reputation.

The Wall Street Journal [subscription required] reports this morning on a Harris Interactive study of 60 corporate reputations that lists Microsoft Corp. (NASDAQ: MSFT), Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ), 3M Company (NYSE: 3M), Google, Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG), and The Coca Cola Company (NYSE: KO) as enjoying the top five corporate reputations in 2006. But reputation does not translate into good stock performance -- these five were up an average of 12% while the S&P 500 rose 13% in the last year.

Moreover, the bottom five -- Halliburton Company (NYSE: HAL), Exxon Mobil Corporation (NYSE: XOM), Comcast, (NASDAQ: CMCSA), General Motors (NYSE: GM), and Altria Group (NYSE: MO) -- were up an average of 20% -- 8% better than the top five. Here's the reputation rank and last 12 month's stock performance for these lousy reputation companies:

  • 60. HAL -29%
  • 59. XOM +16%
  • 58. CMCSA +58%
  • 57. GM +34%
  • 56. MO +19%

Why do these five companies have lousy reputations and why did their stocks do well?

Continue reading Good stocks, lousy reputations: HAL, XOM, CMCSA, GM, MO

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Last updated: February 13, 2012: 03:39 PM

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