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Investing in China: 12 experts pick their best bets

Those surprised by the market's strength in recent weeks should be even more impressed with the rebound in China, where both their market and economy have proven among the most resilient in the world.

Global specialist Nicholas Vardy adds, "While the US markets are rising, Asian stocks are on fire." ETF expert Paul Tracy adds, "China funds have screamed to the top of the performance charts."

In large part, this strength is due to the country's stimulus program. Tracy points out, "To combat the sagging global economy, Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao orchestrated a massive 4 trillion yuan ($586 billion) stimulus package.

Continue reading Investing in China: 12 experts pick their best bets

Option Update: Oil pullback affecting international oil companies' volatilities

PetroChina (NYSE: PTR) closed at $132.04 Friday. WTI Crude Futures are recently up 1.03% to $116.39 according to Bloomberg. PTR over all option implied volatility of 40 is below its 26-week average of 46 according to Track Data, suggesting decreasing movement.

CNOOC Ltd (NYSE: CEO) closed at $133.78 Friday. CEO overall option implied volatility of 43 is near its 26-week average according to Track Data, suggesting non-directional risk.


Canadian Natural (NYSE: CNQ), an oil and natural gas production company, closed at $72.72 Friday. CNQ September option implied volatility of 54 is above its 26-week average of 45, suggesting larger price movement.


Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com

CNOOC rigs a $2.5 billion deal

By all accounts, China's demand for oil will continue to grow at a rapid clip (the country is already the #2 consumer in the world). Of course, there will also be a huge need for oil services.

To this end, CNOOC (NYSE: CEO)'s oil services division, China Oilfield Services Ltd, has agreed to purchase Awilco Offshore for $2.5 billion.

As should be no surprise, China Oilfield's business is ramping, and with Awilco, which is based in Norway, there will be a nice boost. The company posted $203.5 million in revenues last year. What's more, it has seven oil rigs in operation and six being developed.

Thus, in all, China Oilfield's rig fleet will go from 15 to 22, which is certainly a big deal. Basically, there is an extreme shortage right now. More importantly, rigs are likely to produce significant cash flows for the next couple years as daily lease rates can be as much $600,000.

So far in today's trading, CNOOC's shares are down marginally by $0.54 to $170.45.

Tom Taulli is the author of various books, including The Complete M&A Handbook and The Edgar Online Guide to Decoding Financial Statements. He also operates MergerBook.com.

Analyst upgrades: SWX, HITT and REP

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Southwest Gas, Hittite Microwave and Repsol SA were today's noteworthy upgrades:
  • Citigroup upgraded shares of Southwest Gas (NYSE: SWX) to Buy from Hold on valuation, as they believe the company's fundamentals have improved enormously over the last three years.
  • Thomas Weisel upgraded shares of Hittite Microwave (NASDAQ: HITT) to Overweight from Market Weight, as they believe the company is executing on its strategy of increasing new product introductions and growing its global sales efforts. They believe shares are undervalued and maintain a $43 target.
  • Repsol SA (NYSE: REP) was raised to Buy from Hold at Deutsche Bank as they expect good news to flow in 2008.
OTHER UPGRADES:
  • Goldman upgraded CNOOC (NYSE: CEO) to Buy from Neutral and added shares to their Conviction Buy List.
  • Urban Outfitters (NASDAQ: URBN) was raised to Equal Weight from Underweight at Morgan Stanley.
  • Broadpoint raised Ultimate Software (NASDAQ: ULTI) to Buy from Neutral.

Newspaper wrap-up: UBS, Citigroup facing write downs from subprime mess

MAJOR PAPERS:
  • Royal Dutch Shell Plc's (NYSE: RDS.A) 16.67% stake in the Cossack Pioneer field of Australia's North West Shelf may be up for sale, according to the Wall Street Journal. The sale price is expected to be about $450M and may attract the likes of Cnooc Ltd (NYSE: CEO).
  • According to the Wall Street Journal's "Heard on the Street," subprime woes continue, and UBS AG (NYSE: UBS) may face a $7B-plus write-down in the fourth quarter and Citigroup Incorporated (NYSE: C) could face between $8B and $11B of write downs in the fourth quarter.
  • According to Barron's Online's "Weekday Trader" column, a General Electric Company (NYSE: GE) Asset Management bond fund, worth $5B, is suffering losses in its asset-backed mortgages and asset-backed securities, and is giving its investors the opportunity to redeem their holdings at 96c on the dollar.
OTHER PAPERS:
WEB SITES:
  • According to executives familiar with the situation and reported by Apple Insider, the launch of the Apple Inc (NASDAQ: AAPL) iPhone in China is likely to be delayed due to a number of issues including revenue sharing and SIM card incompatibility.

Option update 10-15-07: China Petroleum volatility aggressive

China Petroleum & Chemical (NYSE: SNP), an energy and chemical company based in the People's Republic of China, is recently up $15.74 to $164.69. WTI Crude Futures are up 1.72% to $85.13 according to Bloomberg. SNP November option implied volatility of 88 is above its 26-week average of 38 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price risk.

CNOOC Ltd (NYSE: CEO) is up $8.24 to $185.50. As of 12/31/06, CEO owned net proved reserves of approximately 2.53 billion barrels of oil. Dow Jones reported CEO is still waiting for security regulators to change its listing regulations so that the company can sell A shares on Shanghai, allowing Chinese investors to purchase CEO stock. CEO November call option implied volatility of 69 is above its 26-week average of 31 according to Track Data, suggesting larger risk.

Daily options update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com.

StockWatch: Between the Bells with Thomas Winmill

Midas Funds logoGot gold? In this edition of StockWatch: Between the Bells, Thomas Winmill of the Midas Funds outlines his strategy for broadening your portfolio with investments in precious metals and foreign energy concerns.

Echoing the sentiments of recent StockWatch contributors, Tom says we're currently in a bull market, and can expect growth to continue, thanks in part to recently lowered interest rates.

Tom recommends investors check into foreign equities -- he favors overseas energy companies like Hong Kong's CNOOC (NYSE: CEO), and EnCana Corporation (NYSE: ECA) of Canada. CNOOC manages China's offshore oil and gas exploration, and currently traded in the $160s, gushing up from around $100 in mid-August. EnCana is one of North America's largest oil and gas distributors, and trades about $20 higher than at the start of 2007.

Tom also urges investors to look beyond stocks and bonds, and suggests devoting between five and ten percent of your portfolio to gold and other precious metals.

If you enjoyed this clip, check out recent StockWatch interviews with MSN Money host and author Timothy Sykes and AOL Money Coach Hilary Kramer.



Analyst downgrades: SBUX, EAT, HWAY and FLR

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Starbucks Corporation, Brinker, Healthways and Fluor were today's noteworthy downgrades:
  • Banc of America downgraded Starbucks Corporation (NASDAQ: SBUX) to Sell from Neutral, and lowered their target to $23 from $27, as they see downside risk to estimates due to slower growth. The firm is concerned that expectations for a near-term recovery are too high.
  • Goldman downgraded Brinker International (NYSE: EAT) to Sell from Neutral citing macro economic pressure on sales.
  • Credit Suisse downgraded Healthways Inc (NASDAQ: HWAY) to Neutral from Outperform on valuation.
  • Fluor Corporation (NYSE: FLR) was downgraded to Hold from Buy at Morgan Joseph on valuation.
OTHER DOWNGRADES:

Analyst downgrades: S, TSO, VRSN, HCP and RECN

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Sprint Nextel, Tesoro, VeriSign, Healthcare Property and Resources Connection were today's noteworthy downgrades:
  • Goldman downgraded shares of Sprint Nextel Corporation (NYSE: S) to Neutral from Buy to reflect continuing turnaround delays, macro headwinds and competition.
  • Tesoro Corporation (NYSE: TSO) was downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Credit Suisse, citing increased concerns regarding West Coast margins.
  • The firm also lowered VeriSign Inc (NASDAQ: VRSN) to Neutral from Outperform, as they believe the company's reorganization could require more time than investors anticipate.
  • Friedman Billings downgraded Healthcare Property (NYSE: HCP) to Market Perform from Outperform on valuation. Shares were also downgraded to Neutral from Buy at UBS.
  • Resources Connection (NASDAQ: RECN) was downgraded to Hold from Buy at Stifel, to Market Perform from Outperform at JMP Securities and to Peer Perform from Outperform at Bear following its Q1 report.
OTHER DOWNGRADES:
  • Walgreen (NYSE: WAG) was downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at JMP Securities.
  • JP Morgan downgraded Staples Inc (NASDAQ: SPLS) to Underweight from Neutral.
  • UBS downgraded Under Armour Inc (NYSE: UA) to Neutral from Buy.
  • Bear downgraded CNOOC Ltd (NYSE: CEO) to Underperform from Peer Perform.

Cramer in China: Cramer's top five China stock picks

On tonight's MAD MONEY on CNBC, Jim Cramer dedicated the night to China. He's not gung ho on Chinese stocks, but he's willing to review some of them. (As a reminder, Cramer said he doesn't like investing in China, he doesn't trust China, and he thinks it is overvalued.) He has forecasted an imminent 8% to 10% pullback any time, because, he says, the market is overheated. After you get that pullback then you can buy the stocks, but he advises not to do so now.

As a reminder, Cramer said he wouldn't cross the river with his charitable trust to invest in China, even if there was a 20% pullback in the market. But Cramer does have some picks; he has three solid steady plays and two speculative stock picks.

The 'solid plays':
  • CNOOC Limited (NYSE: CEO) is China's nationalized oil play, the number one offshore, a large player in Indonesia; it is 67% government-owned. Under the production sharing, the company gets the mandatory rights. As long as oil stays high this one is a winner, he thinks. ADR's have a $45 billion market cap; 3% dividend yield.
  • China Mobile Limited (NYSE: CHL), says Cramer, is the winner in the Chinese wireless market with 68% of the mobile users in China. The government owns the majority of the company. It has been on hold because of rumors that China Telecom might enter wireless; it has 1.9% dividend; $191 billion market cap.

Continue reading Cramer in China: Cramer's top five China stock picks

Analyst downgrades 5-23-07: AMD, AZO, CVX and VCLK

MOST NOTEWORTHY: AutoZone, Inc (AZO), Blue Nile, Inc (NILE), MetLife, Inc (MET), Analog Devices, Inc (ADI) and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) topped out today's list of noteworthy downgrades:
  • Citigroup cut AutoZone (NYSE: AZO) to Hold from Buy with a $145 target based on valuation.Gabelli also downgraded shares of AutoZone to Hold from Buy.
  • Lehman downgraded shares of Blue Nile (NASDAQ: NILE) to Equal Weight from Overweight, citing valuation and competitive concerns from Amazon.com (AMZN), which may look to strengthen their position in the diamond engagement market.
  • MetLife (NYSE: MET) was cut to Neutral from Buy on valuation.
  • Analog Devices Inc (NYSE: ADI) was cut by Credit Suisse and JP Morgan to Neutral from Outperform, by Sanders Morris to Neutral from Buy and by Merrill Lynch to Sell from Neutral after the company reported weak Q2 results.
  • Matrix downgraded Advanced Micro Devices (NYSE: AMD) to Strong Sell from Hold based on the loss of market share to Intel Corp's (INTC) new products...
OTHER DOWNGRADES:
  • Bernstein downgraded Chevron Corp (NYSE: CVX) to Market Perform from Outperform.
  • Bear Stearns cut CNOOC Ltd (NYSE: CEO) to Peer Perform from Outperform.
Analyst summaries provided by TheFlyOnTheWall.com (subscription required).

Analyst upgrades 4-20-07: JCP, MAR, NFLX and PALM all upgraded today

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Strattec Security Corp (STRT), Palm, Inc (PALM), Netflix, inc (NFLX), J.C. Penney Co, Inc (JCP) and Marriott International Inc (MAR) were some of today's noteworthy upgrades:
  • Shares of Palm, Inc (NASDAQ: PALM) were raised to Equal Weight from Underweight at Lehman Bros.
  • Banc of America upgraded Netflix Inc (NASDAQ: NFLX) to Neutral from Sell based on valuation.
  • J.C. Penney Co Inc (NYSE: JCP) was raised to Strong Buy from Accumulate with a $105 target at Buckingham, citing strategic merchandise, flow and cycle-timing initiatives.
  • Wachovia believes that as the lodging cycle matures, Marriott International's (NYSE: MAR) diversified fee-based, unit-driven model will outperform relative to pure hotel-owned companies, and upgraded shares to Outperform from Market Perform.
OTHER UPGRADES:
  • Goldman Sachs upgraded CNOOC Ltd (NYSE: CEO) to Buy from Neutral.
  • Oppenheimer upgraded Playtex Products, Inc (NYSE: PYX) to Buy from Neutral on its acquisition of Tiki Hut, strong fundamentals and realistic investor expectations.
  • Shares of VCA Antech, Inc (NASDAQ: WOOF) were upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at Morgan Keegan.
Analyst summaries provided by TheFlyOnTheWall.com (subscription required).

Analyst upgrades 4-19-07: AMD, GILD, INTC & JCP upgraded today

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Energizer Holdings, Inc (ENR), Gilead Sciences, Inc (GILD), Intel Corp (INTC) and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) were some of today's more noteworthy upgrades:
  • Prudential upgraded Energizer Holdings Inc (NYSE: ENR) to Neutral from Underweight. The firm said Energizer has been overly focused on the negative potential of cost inflation without fully appreciating the positive mix shift being generated by faster growth of high-margin specialty products and new products that indicate innovation and a competitive edge.
  • Gilead Sciences (NASDAQ: GILD) was upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at Leerink Swann following Gilead's strong quarter.
  • FTN Midwest upgraded shares of Advanced Micro Devices Inc (NYSE: AMD) and Intel (NASDAQ: INTC) to Buy from Neutral as the firm believes they are seeing the beginnings of a truce with between the two companies which could lead to higher ASPs.
OTHER UPGRADES:
  • CNOOC Ltd (NYSE: CEO) was upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at JP Morgan to reflect the company's prospects for production growth.
Analyst summaries provided by TheFlyOnTheWall.com (subscription required).

Analyst downgrades 12-22-06: Qualcomm to Underweight

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Casino Stocks and Qualcomm (QCOM) were the notable companies downgraded today:
  • CIBC recommends that investors continue to own casino operators heading into 2007 based on their view that while many stocks are fully valued, drivers could persist into the first-half of 2007;
    • the firm downgraded MGM Mirage (NYSE:MGM), Station Casinos Inc. (NYSE:STN) & Ameristar Casinos Inc (NASDAQ:ASCA) to Sector Performer from Sector Outperformer based on valuation and Wynn Resorts Ltd. (NASDAQ:WYNN) to Sector Underperformer from Sector Performer based on valuation and increased competition.
  • JP Morgan downgraded shares of Qualcomm Inc. (NASDAQ:QCOM) to Underweight from Neutral, citing increased legal expenses that could impact margins.
OTHER DOWNGRADES:
  • Keefe Bruyette downgraded shares of Washington Mutual Inc. (NYSE:WM) to Market Perform from Outperform, citing limited margin expansion due to the inverted yield curve.
  • BB&T downgraded Bassett Furniture Industries Inc. (NASDAQ:BSET) to Hold from Buy, citing weak consumer demand for the move.
  • Deutsche Bank downgraded CNOOC Ltd. (NYSE:CEO) to Hold from Buy.
Analyst summaries provided by TheFlyOnTheWall.com (subscription required).

Symbol Lookup
IndexesChangePrice
DJIA+30.6910,464.40
NASDAQ+6.872,176.05
S&P 500+4.981,110.63

Last updated: November 26, 2009: 10:45 AM

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