Analyst Upgrades

• Intel (INTC), ON Semiconductor (ONNN), Lattice Semiconductor (LSCC), Fairchild Semiconductor (FSC), STMicroelectronics (STM) and Altera (ALTR) to outperform from neutral at RW Baird.
• Capital One (COF) to overweight from equal weight at Morgan Stanley.
• Dollar Tree (DLTR) to buy from neutral at Goldman.
• Foot Locker (FL) to buy from neutral at Sterne Agee.
• Progressive (PGR) to buy from neutral at BofA/Merrill.
• Flow International (FLOW) to buy from neutral at Roth Capital.
• Signature Bank (SBNY) to buy from hold at Jefferies.
• HiSoft Technology (HSFT) to buy from neutral at UBS.

Founded in 1950, New York-based American Express (AXP) is a leading global financial services company offering card payment products and travel-related services to consumers and businesses across the globe. It is now the third largest player in the US in terms of card transaction volumes, after Visa (V) and MasterCard (MA). It also competes with other financial institutions that have credit card services like Discover Financial (DFS)and Capital One (COF).

What differentiates American Express from MasterCard and Visa is its relatively more affluent customer base, which it maintains by offering generous benefits and reward programs. Since American Express brings higher spending consumers to merchants, it can charge a higher commission (known as the interchange fee) on sales. Also, unlike Visa and MasterCard, American Express only issues charge and credit card products but not debit cards, which have been gaining widespread acceptance over the past couple of years. With these critical differences in mind, we explore the opportunities that lie ahead for American Express in an evolving macroeconomic environment.

Our price estimate is $47.16, which is just slightly higher than the current market price.

Impact of Regulatory Reforms

The Obama Administration in February 2010 passed the Credit Card Accountability, Responsibility and Disclosure Act, or the CARD Act which enforces more disclosure about interest rates, caps on service fees, grace periods and also makes it difficult for people under the age of 21 to obtain cards. All this is expected to negatively impact the growth in the number of cards in use but lead to lower net write-off rates and defaults by card members.

The Durbin Amendment, enacted in July 2010, granted the Fed the power to control the levels of this fee. In December, the Fed enforced one such limit - 12 cents per debit card transaction. While this adversely affects the two largest card payments-processing networks Visa and MasterCard, which also issue debit cards, we believe it presents upside opportunity for American Express as credit cards would gain prominence over debit cards, at least from the issuers' end.

Improving Economic Conditions

The macroeconomic conditions are improving in the US, albeit at a slow pace. The unemployment levels are still close to historical high levels but on a downward slope, declining from 9.8% in November 2010 to 9.4% in December 2010. Consumer spending has picked up and so have the corresponding card transactions.

Household purchases, which constitute about 70% of the economy, grew at 4.4% in December 2010, the highest since the first quarter of 2006.American Express' card delinquency rates (the proportion of outstanding balances past the due date to total balances) continues to decline month on month to 2.1% from 2.5% in the previous quarter. Charge-offs (the loans deemed uncollectible and hence, written-off) also declined from 5.2% to 4.4% over the same period. Improvements in macroeconomic conditions hint at more relaxed card-issuing criteria and higher credit limits.

If spending increases more than we currently forecast, this could improve our price estimate. Drag the trend line in the modifiable chart above to see the impact. For example, a 5% increase in annual spending in 2012 per customer translates to around a 2% improvement in our price estimate.

See our estimates for American Express.

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Capital One (COF) is one of the largest financial institutions in the United States, with banking and non-banking subsidiaries that market a variety of financial products and services. The company specializes in credit cards, home loans, auto loans, banking and saving products. Its main competitors are JPMorgan (JPM), Bank of America (BAC), Citigroup (C) and American Express (AXP).

We have a price estimate of $61.26 for Capital One, well above market price.

Financial giant Capital One (COF) is trading slightly lower in after hours trading despite crushing analyst estimates for its fourth quarter after today's market close.

As we noted in our earnings preview, analysts had been expecting to see Capital One post earnings of $1.27 per share, but the company easily surpassed analyst forecasts by reporting earnings of $1.52 per share for the quarter.

It was a tough day for bank stocks today, and tomorrow Capital One Financial Corp. (COF) will get its chance to impress Wall Street when it reports its fourth quarter results.

The market was disappointed today by weak earnings report from Goldman Sachs and by news of job cuts coming from American Express.

The earnings season ramps up this week. Analysts polled by Thomson Reuters foresee strong reports from such big names as Apple (AAPL), eBay (EBAY), IBM (IBM), General Electric (GE), Google (GOOG), Schlumberger (SLB) and Southwest Airlines (LUV). And fast on the heels of last week's big earnings beat from JPMorgan Chase (JPM), there will be plenty more results from the financial sector to peruse this week.

Among the financials expected to post double-digit earnings growth this week are Capital One Financial (COF), Morgan Stanley (MS), SLM Corp. (SLM) and U.S. Bancorp (USB), but the week's biggest earnings winner may be Wells Fargo (WFC).

Analyst Upgrades

• Procter & Gamble (PG) upgraded to buy from neutral at Goldman.
• Capital One (COF) upgraded to outperform from market perform at FBR Capital.
• Airgas (ARG) upgraded to outperform from neutral at RW Baird.
• Broadcom (BRCM) upgraded to positive from neutral at Susquehanna.
• Lululemon (LULU) upgraded to hold from underperform at Jefferies.
• DryShips (DRYS) upgraded to outperform from neutral at Credit Suisse.

Analyst Upgrades

• Sapient (SAPE) to outperform from market perform at Wells Fargo.
• Kroger (KR) to buy from neutral at UBS.
• Harman (HAR) to overweight from neutral and Deutsche Bank (DB) to neutral from underweight at JPMorgan.
• Savient (SVNT) to outperform from market perform at JMP Securities.
• LabCorp (LH) to buy from hold at Deutsche Bank.
• Optimer Pharm (OPTR) and Landstar System (LSTR) to outperform from neutral at RW Baird.
• Essex Property Trust (ESS) to buy from neutral at Janney Capital.
• Tyson Foods (TSN) to neutral from sell at Goldman.
• Host Hotels (HST) to outperform from sector perform at RBC Capital.
• SPX Corp. (SPW) to outperform from market perform at FBR Capital.

Analyst Upgrades

• CLSA upgraded Capital One (COF) to outperform from underperform based on valuation and an acceleration in loan growth. The firm raised its price target to $43 from $40.
• KeyBanc upgraded Brush Engineered (BW) to buy from hold based on increased confidence in profit momentum in Specialty Engineered Alloys, valuation and value-added revenue unit growth. The firm has a $30 target on the stock.
• Stifel Nicolaus upgraded Heico (HEI) to buy from hold with a $42 target, citing the better-than-expected Q3 results.
• Greenbrier (GBX) was upgraded to buy from hold at BB&T.
• Paychex (PAYX) was upgraded to hold from sell at Deutsche Bank.
• A. Schulman (SHLM) was upgraded to buy from neutral at Longbow.

Analyst Upgrades

• Piper Jaffray upgraded Dreamworks (DWA) to overweight from neutral following the company's Q2 results. The firm also raised its target for shares to $38 from $30.
• Stephens upgraded Global Payments (GPN) with a $50 price target following the company's Q4 results. Note, shares were downgraded this morning at Janney Montgomery.
• BMO Capital upgraded Carrizo Oil & Gas (CRZO) to outperform from market perform, citing the company's planned exploration activity. The firm raised its price target to $27 from $23.
• eHealth (EHTH) was upgraded to perform from underperform at Oppenheimer and to buy from neutral at BofA/Merrill.
• NASDAQ OMX (NDAQ) was upgraded to buy from hold at Stifel Nicolaus.
• C.H. Robinson (CHRW) was upgraded to outperform from market perform at BMO Capital.

Analyst Upgrades

• FBR Capital upgraded Halliburton (HAL) to outperform from market perform as it sees less headline risk from the Gulf of Mexico spill following Wednesday's House Energy and Commerce Committee hearing. The firm upped its target for shares to $44 from $35.
• FBR Capital also upgraded Morgan Stanley (MS) to outperform from market perform as it views the valuation as attractive following the recent pullback in shares. The firm maintains a $35 price target for shares.
• Deutsche Bank upgraded Avnet (AVT) to buy from hold on valuation; it views the recent pullback as a buying opportunity. The firm raised its target for shares to $39 from $36.
• U.S. Steel (X) was upgraded to conviction buy from buy at Goldman.
• News Corp. (NWS) was upgraded to buy from hold at Argus.
• Sprint (S) was upgraded to outperform from market perform at Raymond James.

Analyst Upgrades

• JPMorgan upgraded TiVo (TIVO) to overweight from neutral as it believes Thursday's appeal win against DISH Network could lead to revenue upside. The firm raised its target price for shares to $23 from $15.
• Collins Stewart upgraded DISH Network (DISH) to buy from hold on valuation, as it believes much of the impact from the negative appeals ruling is priced into the stock. The firm has a $30 target for shares.
• Cowen upgraded Ciena (CIEN) to outperform from neutral. The firm believes Ciena's acquisition of MEN is transformative and will accelerate top line growth.
• Progress Software (PRGS) was upgraded to buy from hold at Needham.
• Allergan (AGN) was upgraded to buy from hold at Lazard Capital.
• Public Service (PEG) was upgraded to buy from hold at Jefferies.

Here are some highlights from this past week's earnings coverage on BloggingStocks:

• Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (AMD) shares declined despite an earnings beat and a positive outlook
• Bank of America Corp. (BAC) reported that its Q4 loss widened more than expected by Wall Street.
• Capital One Financial Corp. (COF) reported better-than-expected earnings but shares declined.
• Colgate-Palmolive Co. (CL) is seen as on-track to record double-digit earnings growth in 2010.
• Cree Inc. (CREE) strong earnings and revenue growth sent shares to a new 52-week high.

Last week, JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) led off the coming parade of earnings from the big banks when it reported better-than-expected fourth-quarter and full-year earnings, though its revenue fell short of estimates.

Plenty more earnings from the financial sector are due out this week. Analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters anticipate fourth-quarter earnings growth from American Express Co. (AXP), Bank of New York Mellon Corp. (BK), Hudson City Bancorp Inc. (HCBK), SLM Corp. (SLM) and US Bancorp (USB).

The bailouts of late 2008 and 2009 have cost the American taxpayers $61 billion, according to the Treasury Department, but the banks aren't to blame this time. The auto manufacturer bailout, which includes Chrysler and General Motors (GRM), has cost the country more than $30 billion, with American International Group (AIG) consuming another $30 billion.

Meanwhile, Bank of America (BAC) has already made good with the government, and several banks -- such as Capital One (COF), JP Morgan Chase (JPM) and TCF Financial (TCB) -- only have to clean up situations regarding the warrants they've issued. And interestingly, the losses from the bailouts on AIG and auto manufacturers are being offset by profits from the bank bailouts, which could generate additional funds of up to $19.5 billion.