MOST NOTEWORTHY: Lam Research, Deutsche Telekom and France Telecom were today's noteworthy upgrades:
Credit Suisse upgraded Lam Research (NASDAQ:LRCX) to Outperform from Neutral citing margin expansion and valuation. Lam was named the firm's top pick in SCE names for 2H08.
JP Morgan upgraded shares of Deutsche Telekom (NYSE:DT) to Overweight from Neutral as they expect a stronger second half of the year for the industry.
France Telecom (NYSE:FTE) was upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Merrill and to Buy from Hold at Societe Generale after the company walked away without bidding for Sweden's TeliaSonera.
Anheuser-Busch Companies Inc (NYSE: BUD) is going to turn down InBev's unsolicited $46.35B takeover offer and that may come before week's end, the Wall Street Journal reported. InBev is then expected to pursue a hostile takeover and Anheuser will say the offer undervalues the company. Instead, Anheuser will attempt to boost its share price by selling non-core assets such as its theme parks.
The Wall Street Journal also reported that Belgian-Dutch financial firm Fortis NL (OTC: FORSY), in a move to increase its solvency, will attempt to raise $12.54B, and will also cancel its interim dividend and sell some assets.
The Financial Times reported that the London Stock Exchange, in a joint venture with Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc (NYSE: LEH), unveiled a pan-European equities trading platform to fight rivals that are hurting its market share.
After hitting a one-year high of $82.25 last June, the stock hit a one-year low of $37.41 in January. COF opened this morning at $42.95. So far today the stock has hit a low of $42.89 and a high of $45.03. As of 12:20, COF is trading at $44.40, up 1.88 (4.4%). The chart for COF looks bearish and steady, while S&P gives the stock a neutral 3 STARS (out of 5) hold rating.
For a bullish hedged play on this stock, I would consider a June bull-put credit spread below the $40 range. A bull-put credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of put options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. For this particular trade, we will make a 5.3% return in just six trading days as long as COF is above $40 at June expiration. Capital One would have to fall by more than 10% before we would start to lose money. Learn more about this type of trade here.
COF hasn't been below $40 for more than a few days in the past year and has shown support around $42 recently. This trade could be risky if the stock market goes to pot in the next week, but even if that happens, this position could be protected by the support the stock might find where it bottomed in March, which is just above $40.
DISCLOSURE: Mr. Archer owns and/or controls diversified portfolios of long and short stock and option positions that may include holdings in companies he writes about. At publication time, Brent neither owns nor controls positions in COF.
TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says the good stuff out there -- and there's a lot of it -- will keep us going up.
How high can we go? That's pretty much the only question worth asking after you put in a bottom, as we did after the Bear Stearns (NYSE: BSC) (Cramer's Take) collapse.
Nobody's talking about a new bull market. But let me give you some thoughts about what has happened in the past few weeks to make it so that you could become more positive.
First, we went down so much because the systemic risk in the biggest part of the S&P, the financials, was overwhelming. It is why we "overcorrected" because the market feared -- and shorts pressed their bets -- that the following institutions could go under: Bear Stearns, Washington Mutual (WM) (Cramer's Take), Wachovia (WB) (Cramer's Take) -- yes, Wachovia, because of the miserable buy of what turned out to be a really reckless lender, Golden West -- Lehman Brothers (LEH) (Cramer's Take), Merrill Lynch (MER) (Cramer's Take), Citigroup (C) (Cramer's Take), National City (NCC) (Cramer's Take), Capital One (COF) (Cramer's Take) and even Wells Fargo (WFC) (Cramer's Take). Fannie (FNM) (Cramer's Take) and Freddie (FRE) (Cramer's Take), too.
MOST NOTEWORTHY: AbitibiBowater, GlaxoSmithKline, AstraZeneca and Capital One were today's noteworthy downgrades:
Lehman downgraded AbitibiBowater (NYSE: ABH) to Equal Weight from Overweight citing dilution from the recent $350M convertible offering, cost pressures, and a more cautious outlook near-term for pulp markets.
JP Morgan cut GlaxoSmithKline (NYSE: GSK) and AstraZeneca (NYSE: AZN) to Underweight from Neutral on long-term earnings growth concerns.
Keefe Bruyette lowered Capital One (NYSE: COF) to Underperform from Market Perform to reflect the company's credit outlook.
OTHER DOWNGRADES:
Nokia (NYSE: NOK) was downgraded to Neutral from Buy at UBS and to Underweight from Overweight at JP Morgan.
Textron (NYSE: TXT) was cut at Credit Suisse to Neutral from Outperform.
Andrew Horowitz, is a money manager and author of The Disciplined Investor. He discusses COF in the most recent episode of The Disciplined Investor Podcast
In an 8-K release this morning, Capital One Financial Corp. (NYSE: COF) reported a 13.7% increase in the monthly charge off rate for the U.S. card segment as compared to the December, 2007 report. As has been predicted, global credit card debt has been rising at an alarming rate. The most recent announcements of a 40% workforce reduction for Capital One's U.K. unit once again displays how "predatory lending practices" have now come back to haunt those companies that have been playing with financial-fire. As the Capital One Management was working on keeping credit card customers, they did not realize that that same level of loyalty would eventually come back to bite them in the asterisk. (Chart from 2007 COF Investor Conference)
When looking at the total picture, Capital One's $505,083,000 monthly principal write-off is becoming more and more concerning as we are continuing to witness a global economic contraction. Consumers are spending less as they have greater worries about their shrinking wallets...Right? They (we) are also becoming painfully aware that the housing slowdown is not going to be a short-lived phenomena. As their home values continue to fade, they are looking for alternative ways to pay for their everyday living expenses. This has led most to the only alternative they have to feed and clothe their family: The Credit Card in the wallet and the ones in the back of the drawer.
Now, as the "almost-affirmed" recession is upon us, delinquencies will rise along with foreclosures and bankruptcies. This will surely trickle down to the lenders as the inflows they receive dwindle, outflows grow and non-recoverable debt increases. While a 6% rate may seem historically high, back in 2003, Capital One posted rates closer to 8% as the U.S. was starting on the road to recovery from a difficult 2 years of recession and the fall off from the domestic stock markets averaging near -50%. The same predicament is what lies ahead as the stock market losses are substituted by housing losses. Even though property values may appear to be "on paper" the physiological wealth effect (or is it defect?) still hurts consumer confidence. All of this leads us back to an ever increasing problem with consumer credit.
Capital One Financial Corp. (NYSE: COF) shares are trading higher this morning on news that yesterday evening's Visa (NYSE: V) IPO raised almost $18 billion. COF offers credit and debit card services co-branded with Visa. Visa this morning has soared above the pricing at $44 from yesterday and is currently around $60. If you think that the company won't fall by too much in the coming months, then now could be a good time to look at a bullish hedged trade on COF.
After hitting a one-year high of $82.25 in June, the stock hit a one-year low of $37.41 in January. COF opened this morning at $51.65. So far today the stock has hit a low of $50.89 and a high of $54.46. As of 11:55, COF is trading at $51.85, up $0.36 (0.7%). The chart for COF looks bullish and steady, while S&P gives the stock a neutral 3 STARS (out of 5) hold rating.
For a bullish hedged play on this stock, I would consider an April bull-put credit spread below the $40 range. A bull-put credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of put options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. For this particular trade, we will make a 7.5% return in just one month as long as COF is above $40 at April expiration. Capital One would have to fall by more than 22% before we would start to lose money.
Capital One Financial (NYSE: COF) is recently down $1.66 to $47.96 on unconfirmed negative chatter.
COF is speaking at Credit Suisse Group Financial Services Forum at 2:00pm today.
COF call option volume of 3,528 contracts compares to put volume of 8,528 contracts. COF March option implied volatility of 75 is above its 26-week average of 47 according to Track Data, indicating that investors are betting on a move down.
Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com
MOST NOTEWORTHY: Certain banks, VASCO Data Security and Bankrate were today's noteworthy downgrades:
UBS downgraded shares of Discover (NYSE: DFS) and Capital One (NYSE: COF) to Sell from Neutral and American Express (NYSE: AXP) to Sell from Buy, as they believe a U.S.-led recession will lead to increased credit losses.
Jefferies downgraded shares of VASCO Data Security (NASDAQ: VDSI) to Hold from Buy to reflect the company's exposure to the financial services market, as they believe 2008 will be a tough year for small companies selling into tightening IT budgets.
Merriman lowered its rating on Bankrate (NASDAQ: RATE) to Neutral from Buy on valuation, as they believe the stock is pricing in upside from strong website traffic seen in January driven by refinance activity and Fed rate cuts. Citigroup downgraded shares to Hold from Buy on valuation, as they find the risk/reward less compelling at current levels.
OTHER DOWNGRADES:
JP Morgan removed SanDisk (NASDAQ: SNDK) from its Top 3 Picks List.
Goldman downgraded CSK Auto (NYSE: CAO) to Neutral from Buy and removed Google (GOOG) from its Conviction Buy List.
Baird lowered Comerica (NYSE: CMA) to Neutral from Outperform.
The economy may not be in recession yet, and there's a minor chance it will avoid one in 2008, but marketers/advertisers seem to be in 'recession-mode,' regarding the tone of their ads, The New York Times reported Monday.
Along with Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT), the Times cited several corporations that have taken a 'tougher times ahead' approach with ads. These include Capital One (NYSE: COF), "Uncertain times call for a certain rate,"Starbucks (NASDAQ: SBUX), which is testing a $1 coffee in Seattle, Washington, and Nissan (NASDAQ: NSANY), which is emphasizing the fuel economy of its 2008 Altima, rather than the car's styling and performance.
Stephen Quinn, Wal-Mart's chief marketing officer, told the Times, "When gas prices spiked last spring, we saw the pressure this put on our core customers." Economic Analysis: With major ad markets in California and Florida bearing a large portion of the housing sector's slump, it's not surprising that corporations have altered ad campaigns to emphasize the money-saving / better value nature aspects of their products and services. But one should not equate this with Corporation America believing a recession is ahead. Ad tweaking indicates that a corporation doesn't anticipate a robust year in its sector, and is adjusting its operational stance.
A better indicator of Corporate America's view of the economy? Staff hiring. If dozens of corporations announce that they're laying off employees, that'd be an indication that a economic contraction is likely.
TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says enough is enough when it comes to a company issuing stock just to cover its preferred dividends.
Someone of some responsibility has to say, "Enough."
I mean, how is it possible that CIT (NYSE: CIT) (Cramer's Take) is going to be able to issue common stock shares to pay preferred stock dividends and interest? But they will get away with it. After all, companies come public because they have too much debt and then use the common stock proceeds to pay down the debt.
So CIT will be "able" to do it. But here's a question: would you ever want to own the stock of a company that does that? How bad can it be there that they can't pay the dividends on recently issued paper?
Of course, though, the goal is to stay alive, to play for another day, because no one ever merges -- other than that pathetic deal that Bank of America (NYSE: BAC) (Cramer's Take) made because it had to and was on the hook. I call it pathetic because, ask yourself, if you didn't have any money "in" Countrywide (NYSE: CFC) (Cramer's Take) or had lent to them wouldn't you just want them to go under?
That's what this CIT move looks like. Desperation.
Moody's wants to make the case that the economy will get bad, but will not fall into recession. CNNMoney writes, "the diversity of the U.S. economy and the global role of the dollar continue to support U.S. government bond and foreign currency ratings, according to the rating agency's annual U.S. credit analysis."
There may be some comfort in the thinking, but it is almost certainly wrong-headed. A look at retail and credit card data late in the fourth quarter points strongly to a consumer who has run out of gas. Results from Capital One (NYSE: COF) and American Express (NYSE: AXP) show a sharp increase in defaults as the year turned. Auto sales data were particularly weak for the last month of the year. Most retail companies like Target (NYSE: TGT) reported lackluster results.
The evidence for a case of positive GDP growth in 2008 is almost gone. The economy is running on fumes.
Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.
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MOST NOTEWORTHY: Lam Research, Deutsche Telekom and France Telecom were today's noteworthy upgrades:.gif){kind=logo}
TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says the good stuff out there -- and there's a lot of it -- will keep us going up.
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Capital One Financial.gif){kind=logo}
Alcoa's Q2 2008 earnings transcript
Anheuser-Busch (BUD) sues InBev, what's next?
Wal-Mart might help your portfolio during the recession
