Analyst Upgrades

• Citigroup (C) to outperform from market perform at Bernstein.
• Cubist Pharma (CBST) to outperform from neutral at RW Baird.
• Pentair (PNR) to buy from hold at Citigroup.
• Heritage Financial (HFWA) to outperform from market perform at Keefe Bruyette.
• SL Green Realty (SLG) and Digital Realty (DLR) to market perform from underperform at FBR Capital.
• MGM Resorts (MGM) to neutral from Sell at Janney Capital.
• Ciena (CIEN) to buy from neutral and Olin (OLN) to buy from underperform at BofA/Merrill.
• Mellanox (MLNX) to overweight from equal weight at Barclays.
• ConocoPhillips (COP) and Canadian Natural (CNQ) to overweight from neutral at JPMorgan.
• IDEX (IEX) to outperform from perform at Oppenheimer.
• Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) to buy from hold at Deutsche Bank.
• Ctrip.com (CTRP) to positive from neutral at Susquehanna.
• Linear Technology (LLTC) and Analog Devices (ADI) to hold from sell at Auriga.
• Quicksilver (KWK) to outperform from market perform at BMO Capital.

"I suspect that as long as the dollar continues its slide our focus on commodities and resource stocks focusing will prove rewarding," says Jack Adamo.

The editor of Insiders Plus explains, "For our latest buy recommendation we'll revisit an old favorite of ours. Over the years we've held 4 positions in ConocoPhillips (COP) and they've gained an average of about 32% for us.

ConocoPhillips (COP) is likely to gain in the short-term from political tensions in Libya and other Middle Eastern regions due to a rise in crude oil prices globally. However the recent news in Japan following fears of a nuclear crisis gives us some concern. ConocoPhillips and competitors like Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM), BP (BP) and Anadarko Petroleum Corporation (APC) and Chevron Corporation (CVX) are sensitive to changes in oil prices.

While we expect ConocoPhillips's price of crude oil and LNGs (per barrel) will increase to around $83 by the end of the Trefis forecast period, Trefis members forecast the price rising to $102, implying an upside of 5% to our price estimate for COP stock.

Oil and gas companies like ConocoPhillips (COP) along with Exxon Mobil (XOM) and Chevron (CVX) will gain from increased demand of natural gas as prices have bounced following the recent earthquakes in Japan. These earthquakes have caused disruptions in the country's nuclear power plants, and 11 reactors have been shut leaving many without power. Nuclear power supplies about 30% of Japan's electricity needs, and Japan is expected to turn to natural gas to help fulfill the country's energy needs.

Conoco previously announced plans to close its Kenai LNG plant based in Alaska that mainly serves Japan after contracts with Japanese utilities could not be renewed. In light of the recent events, Conoco and its partner Marathon Oil (MRO) are monitoring the situation closely to help in the short term, but so far they have not changed their plans to shutter the plant.

Analyst Upgrades

• Brinker (EAT) to buy from neutral at UBS.
• Starbucks (SBUX) to overweight from equal weight at Morgan Stanley.
• Paccar (PCAR) to overweight from neutral at JPMorgan.
• CA Technologies (CA) to outperform from perform at Oppenheimer.
• PPL Corp. (PPL) to overweight from equal weight at Barclays.
• ConocoPhillips (COP) to hold from sell at Citigroup.
• First Defiance (FDEF) to outperform from market perform at Keefe Bruyette.
• MasTec (MTZ) to outperform from neutral at Credit Suisse.
• Amdocs (DOX) to neutral from underperform at BofA/Merrill.

"ConocoPhillips (COP) is not only my favorite integrated oil company, it is also on the short-list of my favorite stocks, period," says Nathan Slaughter.

The editor of Street Authority Market Advisor explains, "The company is raking in cash; the integrated oil giant pocketed $2.0 billion in net profits last quarter on $53.2 billion in revenues.

"For all of 2010, earnings soared nearly 160% to $11.4 billion. That percentage gets cut in half when you exclude one-time gains and charges. Still, it's a good time to be a shareholder.

A little over a week ago the chart players took short positions in the oil sector. Since then the world has changed dramatically.

Egypt is engulfed in a civil uprising and protesters are clamoring for President Hosni Mubarak to step down. Uncertainty is the new state of affairs. Uncertainty breeds fear and fear has taken over the energy sector.

The chart guys quickly covered their shorts and now the bulls have the market. This is fundamental. Three million barrels of oil a day pass through the Suez Canal and the Sumed pipeline. You can throw the charts out the window.

The list of stocks under consideration has been reduced from eleven to ten, to seven and now in today's story four. Starting with five major defense contractors and six major oil companies (see Chasing Value: You Must Own Defense and Oil for Safety), I began a search to find one stock in each sector that might be suitable for inclusion in my list of 2011 stock picks posted last week Chasing Value: 2011 Stock Picks -- The Journey Begin.

Today we continue our analysis by examining return on equity (ROE), return on invested capital (ROIC), and price-to-earnings-to-growth (PEG). Each stock is ranked by sector and metric from best to worst. Sometimes there are clear winners and others there is little to separate one stock from the next. However, in total, a picture can be drawn that does portray a superior opportunity.

"ConocoPhillips (COP) is one of my favorite ideas for investors seeking a reliable (and increasing) income stream and modest upside potential," says Nathan Slaughter.

The editor of Street Authority Market Advisor explains, "With the dollar sliding, oil prices have climbed back above $87 per barrel and could soon flirt with the $90 mark. And ConocoPhillips produces 1.72 million barrels every 24 hours.

"Through the first nine months of 2010, adjusted earnings in the core exploration and production segment at ConocoPhillips are up more than 100%.

The earnings crunch continues this week, and analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters are anticipating lots of strong quarterly reports.

For example, year-over-year earnings growth from big oil Chevron (CVX), ConocoPhillips (COP), ExxonMobil (XOM) and Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.A) are expected to be in double digits. The same is true of many other energy and mining concerns reporting this week: Allegheny Technologies (ATI), Alliant Energy (LNT), Arch Coal (ACI), Cliffs Natural Resources (CLF), CMS Energy (CMS), CONSOL Energy (CNX), DPL (DPL), Hess Corp. (HES), Minerals Technologies (MTX), Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD), PPL Corp. (PPL), Southwestern Energy (SWN), Total (TOT), Whiting Petroleum (WLL), Williams Companies (WMB) and Wisconsin Energy (WEC).

Analyst Upgrades

• Wells Fargo upgraded PG&E (PCG) to outperform from market perform and raised its range for shares to $50 to $52 from $44 to $46, citing the proposed settlement in the company's 2011 General Rate Case.
• Jefferies upgraded Huntsman (HUN) to buy from hold and raised its price target for shares to $17 from $12, citing valuation and the likelihood for favorable earnings revisions.
• RBC Capital upgraded Jack in the Box (JACK) to outperform from sector perform with a $28 target, citing checks showing improved fast food sales in recent months and easy comps.
• Sonic (SONC) was upgraded to outperform from sector perform at RBC Capital and $12 price target.
• Synaptics (SYNA) was upgraded to overweight from neutral at JPMorgan and $40 price target.
• Excel Maritime (EXM) was upgraded to buy from hold at Cantor and raised its price target to $7 from $5.

It is unbelievable! Then again, maybe it's not. 24/7 Wall St. is reporting that a German company is planning to install vending machines in the U.S. that sell gold.

It was only yesterday that I cautioned investors about the overexuberance in the gold market and now that is being raised to a new level. This not only exemplifies my concerns for new investors into the precious metal, but also is strong evidence that retail investors and water-cooler chatter have pushed their way into the market. Gold being sold in vending machines by gold promoters is specifically taking advantage of the foolish retail crowd.