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Analyst upgrades: European Banks, Paper and Forest Products sectors, BRCM, KND and CVG

MOST NOTEWORTHY: European banks, the Paper and Forest Products sector, Kindred Healthcare and Convergys were today's noteworthy upgrades:
  • Keefe Bruyette upgraded the European Banks sector to Neutral from Underweight on valuation as they see limited downside from current levels. Included in the firm's top picks are HSBC Holdings Plc (NYSE: HBC) and Banco Santander SA (NYSE: STD).
  • Credit Suisse upgraded the Paper and Forest Products sector to Overweight from Underweight citing valuations and expectations that fundamentals will bottom this fall. The firm raised shares of Temple-Inland Inc (NYSE: TIN) and Smurfit-Stone Container Corporation (NASDAQ: SSCC) to Outperform from Neutral.
  • Friedman Billings upgraded shares of Kindred Healthcare Inc (NYSE: KND) to Outperform from Market Perform on valuation following the recent pullback and believes the company is well-positioned to beat modest expectations over the remainder of the year. The firm raised their target to $36 from $29.
  • Oppenheimer raised Convergys Corporation (NYSE: CVG) to Outperform from Perform on valuation, as they believe investors should look at the company's business lines separately. Their sum of parts valuation yields an $18 target.
OTHER UPGRADES:

Analyst initiations: GSK, EQIX and CVG

MOST NOTEWORTHY: GlaxoSmithKline, Equinix and Convergys were today's noteworthy initiations:
  • Societe Generale believes consensus estimates are underestimating the quality of GlaxoSmithKline's (NYSE: GSK) base business. The firm started shares with a Buy rating.
  • Merriman believes Equinix's (NASDAQ: EQIX) data center footprint leaves it highly exposed to changing market dynamics, including virtualization, and initiated shares with a Neutral rating. They see limited upside over the next 12 months.
  • Convergys (NYSE: CVG) was reinstated with a Hold rating and $19 target at Kaufman Bros, as they are not confident in the company's 2008 new signings outlook and is concerned that the current restructuring and headcount cuts will prove disruptive over the medium term.
OTHER INITIATIONS:
  • First Solar (NASDAQ: FSLR) was initiated with a Buy rating and $360 target at UBS.
  • Wachovia resumed coverage of News Corp (NYSE: NWS) with a Market Perform rating.
  • Baird initiated Sealed Air (NYSE: SEE) with a Neutral rating.

Analyst upgrades 7-26-07: BIDU, DCX, EXPE and USG

MOST NOTEWORTHY: DaimlerChrysler (DCX), Omniture (OMTR), Convergys (CVG), Expedia (EXPE) and Baidu.com (BIDU) were today's noteworthy upgrades:
  • WestLB upgraded shares of DaimlerChrysler (NYSE: DCX) to Buy from Add after the company raised the profit margin forecast for its Mercedes unit.
  • Omniture (NASDAQ: OMTR) was upgraded by Piper Jaffray to Market Perform from Underperform to reflect the company's strong revenue momentum and expanding margins.
  • Wedbush upgraded Convergys (NYSE: CVG) to Hold from Sell on valuation.
OTHER UPGRADES:
  • Bear Stearns upgraded shares of Ryder System (NYSE: R) to Outperform from Underperform.
  • Lehman raised EnCana Corp (NYSE: ECA) to Equal Weight from Underweight.
  • USG Corp (NYSE: USG) was raised to Neutral from Underperform at Buckingham.
  • Morgan Keegan upgraded shares of Panera Bread (NASDAQ: PNRA) to Outperform from Market Perform.
Analyst summaries provided by TheFlyOnTheWall.com (subscription required).

Wednesday Market Rap: AMZN, TWC, XRX, AFL & AAPL

The markets bounced back from the selling they saw yesterday to end the day with minor gains. The NYSE had heavy volume of 4.1 billion shares with 1,323 shares advancing while 1,972 declined for a gain of 20.41 points to close at 9,930.36. On the NASDAQ, 2.4 billion shares traded, 1,357 advanced and 1,696 declined for a gain of 8.31 to 2,648.17.

Stocks moving included Amazon.com (NASDAQ: AMZN) magically lifted $16.93 (24%) to $86.18 on earnings that tripled. Convergys (NYSE: CVG) plummeted $3.47 (-15%) to $20.45 on earnings. AFLAC Incorporated (NYSE: AFL) rose $4.29 (8%) to $56.19 on 84 cents per share earnings. Xerox Corporation (NYSE: XRX) fell $1.11 (-6%) to $18.22 after reporting Q2 income of 28 cents per share.

Options were very active today on Apple Computer. There was heavy volume on the August 150 calls (APVHJ) with over 58,000 options trading. This activity is not surprising given the level of excitement over the iPhone and the earnings numbers due tonight. Amazon also saw heavy volume on the August 90 calls (ZQNHR) with over 32,000 options trading following its spike up today. Time Warner Cable (NYSE: TWC) saw heavy volume on the October 40.0 calls (TWCJH) with over 24,000 contracts. In options there were over 6 million puts and over 6.1 million calls traded for a put/call open interest ratio of 0.98.

Kevin Kersten is an Options Analyst with InvestorsObserver.com. Do you have any deadwood in your portfolio? Check out the 18 Warning Signs That Tell You To Dump A Stock. Disclosure note: Mr. Kersten owns and or controls a diversified portfolio of long and short positions that may include holdings in companies he writes about.

Analyst downgrades 1-25-07: L-1 Identity could lose contract, gets downgraded

MOST NOTEWORTHY: WCI Communications Inc (WCI) and L-1 Identity Solutions Inc (ID) topped today's list of downgrades:
  • JMP Securities downgraded shares of WCI Communications Inc (NYSE: WCI) to Underperform from Market Perform to reflect the negative Q4 pre-announcement and lower-than-expected traditional home net orders.
  • L-1 Identity Solutions Inc (NYSE: ID) was downgraded to Sell from Neutral at Oppenheimer, noting that the Transportation Security Administration is prepared to award the Transportation Worker Identification Card contract to Lockheed instead of L-1.

OTHER DOWNGRADES:
  • General Dynamics Corp (NYSE: GD) was downgraded to Hold from Buy by AG Edwards, citing valuation.
  • Matrix USA downgraded Microtune Inc (NASDAQ: TUNE) to Strong Sell from Sell on valuation.
  • Convergys Corp (NYSE: CVG) was downgraded to Sell from Hold, with a $22 target, based on valuation.
  • BancFirst Corp (NASDAQ: BANF) was downgraded to Underperform from Market Perform, with a $45 target, at Keefe Bruyette following the disappointing Q4 report.
Analyst summaries provided by TheFlyOnTheWall.com (subscription required).

Fitch says: Tech LBOs are no big deal

Traditionally, private equity firms have focused on brick-and-mortar companies. The targets are often underperforming – yet have strong cash flows and stable contracts.

But, recently, private equity firms have moved to tech companies. And some of the deals have been huge, such as the $17.6 billion buyout of Freescale Semiconductor, Inc. (NYSE:FSL) and the $11.4 billion Sungard buyout.

So, is this the beginning of a major trend?

The answer is "no" from a top credit analysis firm, Fitch Ratings.

Why?

First, tech companies are not ideal for loading-up the balance sheet with debt. That is, the free cash flow tends to be too low – or too erratic. Besides, there is "technology risk," in which a company's products can become obsolete from intense competitive forces.

Next, because of the dot-com implosion, many tech companies have already restructured operations. In other words, there is little opportunity for improvement that a private equity can provide.

Despite all this, Fitch did find a few attractive candidates for buyouts: CA, Inc. (NYSE:CA), Convergys Corporation (NYSE:CVG) and even Dell Inc. (NASDAQ:DELL).

Tom Taulli is the author of various books, including the Complete M&A Handbook and the EDGAR-Online Guide to Financial Statements.

Symbol Lookup
IndexesChangePrice
DJIA+20.0310,246.97
NASDAQ-2.982,151.08
S&P 500-0.071,093.01

Last updated: November 10, 2009: 09:32 PM

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