Analyst upgrades:

• Jefferies upgraded Aruba Networks (NASDAQ: ARUN) to Buy from Hold following the company's Q3 results to reflect improved visibility. The firm raised its target price to $6.50 from $3.
• Citigroup upgraded Mosaic (NYSE: MOS) and Potash (NYSE: POT) to Buy from Hold and Agrium (NYSE: AGU) to Hold from Sell as it believes stronger grain fundamentals more than offset China contract risk. The firm raised its target on Mosaic to $72 from $48, on Potash to $145 from $83 and on Agrium to $55 from $36.
• Fulton Financial (NASDAQ: FULT) Was upgraded to Market Perform from Underperform at Keefe Bruyette.
• Rio Tinto (NYSE: RTP) was raised to Neutral from Sell at Goldman.
• Noble Corp. (NYSE: NE) was upgraded at Deutsche Bank to Buy from Hold.

Analyst upgrades:

• Baird upgraded MSM Industrial (NYSE: MSM) to Outperform from Neutral based on valuation and a positive view for Industrial Distributors.
  
• William Blair upgraded Allscripts (NASDAQ: MDRX) to Outperform from Market Perform on valuation following the recent pullback and believes Allscripts is well positioned to benefit from public policy that drives adoption of electronic medical records.
  
• Citigroup upgraded Consolidated Edison (NYSE: ED) to Buy from Hold as they believe the ALJ recommendation in the company's pending electric rate case indicates potential for an improving outlook.
• Raytheon (NYSE: RTN) was raised to Buy from Neutral at Goldman.
  
• Smith & Nephew (NYSE: SNN) was upgraded at JP Morgan to Neutral from Underweight.
  
• Becton Dickinson (NYSE: BDX) was upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight at Morgan Stanley.

Analyst downgrades:

• Oppenheimer downgraded Bio-Reference Labs (NASDAQ: BRLI) to Perform from Outperform as they believe weaker volumes could pressure top-line growth in the near-term. The firm lowered their target to $25 from $30.
  
• Morgan Stanley downgraded shares of Alcatel-Lucent (NYSE: ALU) to Equal Weight from Overweight to reflect market deterioration as they find the risk/reward as balanced at current levels.
  
• JP Morgan cut Nestle (OTC: NSRGY) to Underweight from Neutral on concerns the company's 2009 revenue will miss consensus estimates due to market share losses.
• Rio Tinto (NYSE: RTP) and Anglo American (NASDAQ: AAUK) were lowered to Hold from Buy at Deutsche Bank.

Analyst upgrades:

• Merrill upgraded Kraft Foods (NYSE: KFT) to Buy from Neutral citing progress in the company's turnaround plan, execution, and 2009 earnings growth.
  
• Thomas Weisel raised Express Scripts (NASDAQ: ESRX) to Overweight from Market Weight and believes the company's core business remains strong and that valuation is attractive.
  
• Friedman Billings upgraded shares of Symantec (NASDAQ: SYMC) to Outperform from Market Perform on valuation after checks indicated the company should meet Q2 expectations.
• NeuStar (NSR) was upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Baird.
  
• UBS raised Advance Auto Parts (NYSE: AAP) to Neutral from Sell.
  
• Goldman upgraded Royal Dutch Shell (NYSE: RDS.A) to Buy from Neutral.

Analyst downgrades:

• Friedman Billings downgraded shares of Zions Bancorp (NASDAQ: ZION) to Market Perform from Outperform and lowered its target to $33 from $43 following the company's Q3 results, as they believe near-term credit trends and concerns surrounding its securities portfolio will limit upside. Shares were also downgraded at JP Morgan to Neutral from Overweight due to deteriorating credit trends.
  
• Banc of America cut Monster (NASDAQ: MNST) to Neutral from Buy to reflect a lack of margin stability and their belief consensus estimates remain too high.
  
• Barclays downgraded Avis Budget Group (NYSE: CAR) to Equal Weight from Overweight citing the global economic slowdown and refinancing risk.
• Johnson Controls (NYSE: JCI), Luxottica (NYSE: LUX) and ArvinMeritor (NYSE: ARM) were cut to Neutral from Buy at Goldman.
  
• Luxottica was also downgraded at HSBC to Neutral from Overweight.
  
• JP Morgan cut AuthenTec (NASDAQ: AUTH) to Underweight from Neutral.

Analyst initiations:

• Janney Montgomery believes Gladstone Capital's (NASDAQ: GLAD) management team and lower portfolio investment risk profile warrant a premium valuation. The firm started shares with a Buy rating and $13 target.
• CommVault (NASDAQ: CVLT) was initiated with a Buy rating and $14 target at Cantor, as the firm finds the stock attractively valued given its secular growth rate potential.
  
• KeyBanc is positive on Papa John's (NASDAQ: PZZA) management team, growth potential, cost initiatives, and differentiation. Shares were assumed with a Buy rating and $30 target.
• Arris (NASDAQ: ARRS) was initiated at Jefferies with a Hold rating and $7 target.
  
• Rigel Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ: RIGL) was initiated at Banc of America with a Neutral rating and $21 target.
  
• Morgan Stanley started Hansen Natural (NASDAQ: HANS) with an Equal Weight rating.

Analyst upgrades:

• Baird upgraded Bank of America (NYSE: BAC) to Outperform from Neutral citing valuation and long-term earnings power.
• Keefe Bruyette upgraded shares of Nationwide Financial (NYSE: NFS) to Outperform from Market Perform as it believes the deal is not at risk and will close at the agreed upon $52.25 price.
  
• Friedman Billings upgraded American Eagle (NYSE: AEO) to Outperform from Market Perform citing valuation.
• Eli Lilly (NYSE: LLY) was upgraded to Hold from Sell at Natixis.
• W.W. Grainger (NYSE: GWW) was upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at RW Baird.
• Fidelity National (NYSE: FIS) was upgraded to Buy from Neutral at SunTrust.

Analyst downgrades:

• Credit Suisse downgraded Eli Lilly NYSE:(LLY) to Neutral from Outperform citing the increased risk profile from the ImClone (IMCL) deal.
• Soleil downgraded Google (NASDAQ:GOOG) to Hold from Buy as it believes Google's cost management may lag revenue weakness and that the falling stock price implies employee defections. The firm lowered its target to $350 from $580.
• Piper downgraded shares of Orbitz (NYSE:OWW) to Sell from Neutral to reflect deteriorating travel industry fundamentals and the company's levered balance sheet.
  
• US Steel (NYSE:X) was downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Goldman.
• Philips Electronics (NYSE:PHG) was downgraded to Hold from Buy at ING Group.
• Lamar Advertising (NASDAQ:LAMR) was downgraded to Hold from Buy at Soleil.
• Cemex (NYSE:CX) was downgraded to Hold from Buy at Citigroup.
  

Analyst initiations:

• Bidz.com (NASDAQ:BIDZ), American Superconductor (NASDAQ:AMSC) and Union Bankshares (NASDAQ:UBSH) were today's noteworthy initiations:
  
• Bidz.com (NASDAQ:BIDZ) was initiated with a Hold at Stamford, as the firm does not want to recommend a company that has never been tested during difficult economic times, but is positive on BIDZ's growth potential.
• American Superconductor (NASDAQ:AMSC) was initiated with a Hold at Stanford, as the firm believes the Euro decline and global market turmoil are near-term risks.
• Union Bankshares (NASDAQ:UBSH) was initiated with an Underperform at RBC Capital, as the firm views shares as overvalued.
• Regis Corp (NYSE:RGS) was initiated with a Neutral at RW Baird.
• CommVault's (NASDAQ:CVLT) coverage was resumed with a Neutral at Merrill Lynch.

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Alliance Imaging, Calpine and CommVault were today's noteworthy initiations:

• Stanford finds shares of Alliance Imaging (NYSE: AIQ) fairly valued and believes the company's transition to providing imaging services to hospitals from mobile imaging equipment to fixed imaging equipment will take at least several years. The firm initiated coverage with a Hold rating.
  
• Calpine (NYSE: CPN) was initiated with a Buy rating and $21.50 target at Jefferies. The firm views Calpine as a low-cost valuation generation company and expects earnings growth from its Western and Texas power plants to drive improved results.
  
• Cowen assumed CommVault (NASDAQ: CVLT) with a Neutral rating and sees limited upside to 2009 estimates due to sales and marketing investments, as well as competition.

OTHER INITIATIONS:

• UBS initiated Omrix Biopharm (NASDAQ: OMRI) with a Buy rating and $17 target.
  
• Susquehanna initiated Align Tech (NASDAQ: ALGN) with a Neutral rating.
  
• Zions Bancorp (NASDAQ: ZION) was assumed with a Neutral rating and $13 target at Baird.

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Pioneer Natural, Genomic Health and Alphatec were today's noteworthy upgrades:

• Citigroup upgraded shares of Pioneer Natural Resources Company (NYSE: PXD) to Buy from Hold on valuation following the recent weakness.
• Genomic Health Inc (NASDAQ: GHDX) was raised to Outperform from Sector Perform at RBC Capital, as they believe momentum for the company's Oncotype Dx test is building based on inclusion in new clinical guidelines and expanded reimbursement.
• Alphatec Holdings Inc (NASDAQ: ATEC) was upgraded to Buy from Source of Funds at Think Equity, citing the new CEO's efforts to overhaul the company, which has positioned it for growth.

OTHER UPGRADES:

• Intercontinental Exchange Inc (NYSE: ICE) was added to JP Morgan's Focus List.
• Banc of America upgraded Sirona Dental Systems Inc (NASDAQ: SIRO) to Buy from Neutral.
• Baird upgraded CommVault Systems Inc (NASDAQ: CVLT) to Outperform from Neutral.

As firms become increasingly dependent on efficient and secure access to enterprise data, the advantages of a unified architectural approach to database management become increasingly apparent. There is an outfit in Oceanport, New Jersey, noted for the degree to which its systems employ that approach.

CommVault Systems (NASDAQ: CVLT) provides data management software and related services. Its unified suite of applications is used for enterprise-wide data migration, backup, archiving, data replication and disaster recovery. The firm serves customers in manufacturing, financial services, health care, transportation and the public sector. It has strategic partnerships with the likes of Dell (NASDAQ: DELL), Hitachi (NYSE: HIT) and Novell (NASDAQ: NOVL).

The firm pleased investors last week when it announced fiscal Q2 EPS of 12 cents and revenues of $47.4 million. Analysts had been expecting 12 cents and $45.9 million. The revenue figure was a company record. Management also guided FY08 EPS to 57-59 cents (56 cent consensus) and FY08 revenues to $194-$196 million ($192.81 million consensus). In discussing the favorable outlook, the CEO noted significant progress in expanding the company's market positions in backup and emerging products.

MOST NOTEWORTHY: The systems technology sector, Auxilium Pharmaceuticals (AUXL) and BioSante Pharm (BPA) were today's noteworthy initiations:

• In the systems technology sector, JP Morgan initiated coverage on CommVault Systems (NASDAQ: CVLT) and Double-Take Software, Inc (NASDAQ: DBTK) with Overweight ratings, Isilon Systems (NASDAQ: ISLN) and Opsware Inc (NASDAQ: OPSW) with Neutral ratings and Avocent Corp (NASDAQ: AVCT) with an Underweight rating.

• Auxilium Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ: AUXL) was initiated with an Outperform rating at Cowen, which said AUXL's lead candidate, AA4500, is in pivotal testing for Dupuytren's contracture, which could be a $400M+ revenue opportunity.

• BioSante Pharmaceuticals (AMEX: BPA) was initiated with a Positive rating at Susquehanna, as the firm is positive on BPA's growth prospects for the transdermal estrogen market, upside potential from the female dysfunction market, and valuation.

OTHER INITIATIONS:

• Morgan Stanley initiated shares of Lamar Advertising (NASDAQ: LAMR) with an Overweight rating and $77 target.

• SunTrust Robinson Humphrey initiated shares of Texas Roadhouse (NASDAQ: TXRH) with a Neutral rating.

• Morgan Joseph initiated shares of Metalico (AMEX: MEA) with a Hold rating.

• Stifel Nicolaus initiated shares of Tenet Healthcare (NYSE: THC) with a Sell rating and a $5 target.

Analyst summaries provided by TheFlyOnTheWall.com (subscription required).

BusinessWeek reports that a waitress -- for 20 years and a welder before that -- who has never owned a stock in her life is positioned to win CNBC's Million Dollar Contest. This is sort of like winning the lottery.

And luck -- combined with playing by the rules -- may help Mary Sue Williams of St. Clairsville, OH win that $1 million. According to the last official standings, posted on May 25, she was in sixth place, with a 29% return during the two-week final round. But since many top finishers are suspected of exploiting a loophole in CNBC's trading software to inflate their returns, CNBC may disqualify the five who are ahead of her, leaving Williams the most likely winner.

She followed her mother-in-law's advice, spending about an hour a day checking the financial web site Earnings.com for companies that were about to announce their quarterly results. She figured that companies reporting earnings were the most likely to see big moves. To pick specific stocks, she used the Warren Buffett approach: invest in what you know.

Her most memorable picks included the following:

• WD-40 Co. (NASDAQ: WDFC)
• Crocs Inc. (NASDAQ: CROX),
• CommVault Systems (NASDAQ: CVLT),
• Ctrip.com (NASDAQ: CTRP), and
• Focus Media Holding Ltd. (NASDAQ: FMCN).

If she wins, she plans to use the money for her daughter's education. Now that's a good investment!

Peter Cohan is president of Peter S. Cohan & Associates, a management consulting and venture capital firm. He also teaches management at Babson College and edits The Cohan Letter. He has has no financial interest in the securities mentioned in this post.

Wall Street's equity market offers a solid slate this week - with five IPOs and ten Secondaries on the docket.

Those deals tentatively scheduled to price include:

IPOs:

• Day Undetermined:
  • The Blackstone Group (BX), a 133.3M-share IPO. Morgan Stanley and Citigroup are the lead managers. Filing range: $29.00-$31.00.
• Tuesday
  • Biofuel Energy (BIOF), a 9.5M-share IPO for this ethanol company. JP Morgan Chase, Citigroup, and AG Edwards are the lead managers. Filing range: $16.00-$18.00.
• Wednesday
  • Bway (BWY), an 11.765M-share IPO for this container company. Goldman Sachs and the Bank of America are the lead managers. Filing range: $16.00-$18.00.
  • GeoVera Insurance (GEOV), a 5.99M-share IPO for this residential insurance company. JP Morgan Chase and Merrill Lynch are the lead managers.
• Thursday
  • Aegerion Pharmaceuticals (AEGR), a 5M-share IPO for this cardiovascular medicines company. Lehman Brothers is the lead manager. Filing range: $12.00-$14.00.

As firms become increasingly dependent on efficient and secure access to enterprise data, the advantages of a unified architectural approach to database management become increasingly apparent. There is an outfit in Oceanport, New Jersey noted for the degree to which its systems employ that approach.

CommVault Systems (NASDAQ: CVLT) provides data management software and related services. Its unified suite of applications is used for enterprise-wide data migration, backup, archiving, data replication and disaster recovery. The firm serves customers in manufacturing, financial services, health care, transportation and the public sector. It has strategic partnerships with Dell (NASDAQ: DELL), Hewlett-Packard (NYSE: HPQ), Hitachi (NYSE: HIT), Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT), Network Appliance (NASDAQ: NTAP), Novell (NASDAQ: NOVL) and Oracle (NASDAQ: ORCL).

The firm pleased investors last week, when it announced fiscal Q4 EPS of 14 cents and revenues of $42.6 million. Analysts had been expecting 12 cents and $42.0 million. Management also guided FY08 EPS to 55-57 cents (56 cent consensus) and FY08 revenues to $191-$193 million ($191.19M consensus). In discussing the solid quarterly results and favorable outlook, the CEO noted that the company is seeing broader deployment of its full suite of products across a broader spectrum of deal sizes. CVLT shares popped on the news and subsequently moved into the initial stages of a bullish "flag" consolidation pattern. Prices frequently exit flags moving in the same direction they were traveling when they entered them. In this case, that would be to the upside.

Brokers recommend the issue with three "strong buys," four "buys" and two "holds." Analysts see a 27% growth rate, through the next year. The CVLT Sales Growth rate (31.48%), Return on Assets (18.77%) and Return on Investment (55.11%) compare favorably with industry, sector and S&P 500 averages.

Institutional investors hold about 73% of the outstanding shares. Since going public last September, the stock has traded between $14.74 and $20.85. A stop-loss of $14.80 looks good here.

Larry Schutts is a contributing editor for Theflyonthewall.com and the Vice-President of Stockwinners.com.

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Brocade Communications Systems, Inc (BRCD), AT&T Inc (T), DaimlerChrysler (DCX), AMR Corp (AMR) and Continental Airlines, Inc (CAL) were today's more noteworthy upgrades:

• JP Morgan upgrade shares of Brocade Communications Systems, Inc (NASDAQ: BRCD) to Overweight from Neutral, citing positive trends in networked storage; shares were also added to the firm's Focus List.

• Matrix believes improving product mix and demand for new products is driving strong fundamental trends in AT&T (NYSE: T). Matrix upgraded T shares to Strong Buy from Buy and sees upside to their intrinsic value of $56.

• Bernstein believes the divestiture of Chrysler from DaimlerChrysler AG (NYSE: DCX) is a positive for the company and upgraded shares to Outperform from Market Perform.

• Soleil upgraded shares of AMR Corp (NYSE: AMR) to Buy from Hold on valuation and Continental Air Lines Inc (NYSE: CAL) to Hold from Sell based on a more constructive industry outlook...

OTHER UPGRADES:

• Morgan Stanley upgraded NTT DoCoMo, Inc (NYSE: DCM) to Overweight from Equal-Weight.

• Bear Stearns upgraded TiVo Inc (NASDAQ: TIVO) and Paychex, Inc (NASDAQ: PAYX) to Outperform from Peer Perform.

• Goldman upgraded Forest Oil Corp (NYSE: FST) and CommVault Systems, Inc (NASDAQ: CVLT) to Buy from Neutral.

Analyst summaries provided by TheFlyOnTheWall.com (subscription required).

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Onyx Pharmaceuticals (ONXX) and CommVault (CVLT) top the list of today's initiations.

• Citigroup started Onyx Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ:ONXX) with a Hold rating and $22 target as the broker expects shares to be range bound until clarity is given into the company's cancer indications. A bunch firms initiated recent IPO CommVault Systems this morning, including IPO managers First Boston and Goldman Sachs.
• Goldman started shares of CommVault Systems, Inc. (NASDAQ:CVLT) with a Buy and $21 target, and added shares to its prestigious Conviction Buy List, as they expect the company to benefit from relationships with DELL and HDS. First Boston is more lukewarm on the name, starting shares with a Neutral rating and the same target of $21. Other firms' imitating the stock this morning was Merrill Lynch with a Buy, and Thomas Weisel and RBC Capital with Outperform ratings.

OTHER INITIATIONS:

• Caris initiated three retail names this morning: American Eagle Outfitters, Inc. (NASDAQ:AEOS), Limited Brands, Inc. (NYSE:LTD) and Men's Wearhouse, Inc. (NYSE:MW). The broker favors Limited and Men's Wearhouse with Above Average ratings, thinking inventory and cost management can bring margin expansion. Caris is less excited about American Eagle, starting shares with an Average rating, believing shares are fairly valued at current levels.

Analyst summaries provided by TheFlyOnTheWall.com (subscription required).