Rite Aid (NYSE: RAD), which competes with Walgreen (NYSE: WAG), CVS Caremark (NYSE: CVS), and Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT), saw a big increase in volume on Wednesday after it reported earnings for the first quarter. In fact, as Douglas McIntyre observed, shares of Rite Aid were up 5% at one point during yesterday's session. However, the shares ended up losing their green status by the close of trading. Rite Aid actually lost 3% when all was said and done. What does it all mean?

Well, Rite Aid did beat analyst forecasts by a wide margin. The call was for a loss of 13 cents per share. Rite Aid lost only 6 cents per share once adjustments are made. Revenues dipped a little over 1%, and same-store sales, after excluding the effect of the Brooks Eckerd acquisition, increased 1.5%. Interestingly, the mix of this increase is as follows: the pharmacy sales went up 3.1% on a comparable basis, and the non-pharmacy sales went down 1.4% on the same basis.

Walgreen (NYSE: WAG), a drugstore business that competes with CVS Caremark (NYSE: CVS) and Rite-Aid (NYSE: RAD), will be issuing results for the third quarter on Monday, June 22. According to Earnings.com, the analyst community is prescribing $0.56 per share for the company.

Of course, the question is: will Walgreen honor that prescription and fill it? I'd say it's quite possible. Last time around, Walgreen beat estimates. The call was for $0.66 per share in Q2. If you look at the press release from that time, you'll see that, once you adjust for some items, Walgreen went beyond expectations.

Rite Aid (NYSE: RAD), whose competitors include Walgreen (NYSE: WAG), CVS Caremark (NYSE: CVS), and Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT), reported Q4 numbers today, and when you read through the release, you sort of come away with a decent feeling. You hear about improvements in this metric and that metric. You wonder if a turnaround might be in the offing. Then you look at the stock price and, even though it is currently being bid higher (it's up over 14% as I write), you come back down to earth and reality hits you in the face. Anything trading under a buck has to give you pause. Rite Aid is no different.

For the quarter, Rite Aid posted a 1.7% decrease in the top line. On an adjusted basis, the drugstore chain reported a loss of $0.14 per share. According to this source, Wall Street thought Rite Aid might lose $0.105 per share. The company is still adjusting to the Brooks Eckerd acquisition. Excluding that effect, same-store sales increased 0.8%. Including the asset, comps decreased 0.1%.

As drug store chains go, there are few better than CVS Caremark, with the chain taking the CVS name. Further, with the U.S. recession in its 15th month and shares doing their best to form a bottom, now is the time to scoop up CVS's shares, for several reasons.

First, CVS (NYSE: CVS) is a classic defensive stock. During recessions, and especially during this recession, consumers cut back spending, but they do their best to maintain essential purchases, and prescriptions are one such purchase. That bodes well for what analysts call "back store revenue" (the pharmacy).

Among all the negative economic data that came out last week was a positive surprise: retail sales were higher in January. A fluke or a glimmer at the end of the tunnel? That may depend on whether we see any positive surprises arising from items on this week's economic calendar:

• Consumer Analyst Group of New York Conference: Monday through Friday
• NY Empire Manufacturing Index (Feb. 2009): Tuesday, 8:30 AM
• NAHB Housing Market Index (Feb. 2009): Tuesday, 1:00 PM
• Fed's Bullard speaks before National Association of Business Economists: Tuesday, 1:00 PM
• Housing starts (Jan. 2009): Wednesday, 8:30 AM
• Fed's Pianalto speaks before Commercial Developers Power Breakfast: Wednesday, 9:00 AM
• Industrial production (Jan. 2009): Wednesday, 9:15 AM
• Fed's Bernanke speaks before National Press Club Luncheon: Wednesday, 12:30 PM

Walgreen (NYSE: WAG ) knows that people want all kinds of options to meet their healthcare needs. Walgreen also knows that it needs to grow and keep up with competitor CVS Caremark (NYSE: CVS) and the pharmacy department at Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT). And, yes, I suppose Rite-Aid (NYSE: RAD) is technically a competitor, too, although you wouldn't know it by that drugstore chain's stock price. Well, according to The Wall Street Journal, Walgreen plans to promote an initiative called "Complete Care and Well-Being" to employers. The goal here is to give corporate, as well as government, employees and their families access to healthcare services such as preventive medicine and dental examinations in off-hour time periods. Walgreen will use a network of in-store clinics and health centers to provide these services. That's pretty cool, right? Well, one of the bigger benefits to Walgreen is the synergy it can promote by leveraging this program.

CVS Caremark (NYSE: CVS - option chain) stock is declining sharply this morning after the company forecast a fiscal-2009 EPS of $2.53 to $2.61, well below analysts' estimates of $2.74. The company cited lower sales of prescription drugs for the forecast. If you think this stock won't be rising too far in the coming months as a result of this news, then it could be a good time to look at a bearish hedged play on CVS.

This morning, CVS opened at $27.00. So far today the stock has hit a low of $25.50 and a high of $27.09. As of 12:45, CVS is trading at $25.84, down $3.50 (-11.9%). The chart for CVS looked bullish up until today and S&P gives CVS its highest 5 STARS (out of 5) strong buy ranking.

For a bearish hedged play on this stock, I would consider a February bear-call credit spread above the $30 range. A bear-call credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of call options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. For this particular trade, we will make an 11.1% return in six weeks as long as CVS is below $30 at February expiration. CVS would have to rise by more than 16% before we would start to lose money. Learn more about this type of trade here.

CVS hasn't been above $30 by more than a few cents since November and shown resistance around $29.50 recently.

Brent Archer is an options analyst and writer at Investors Observer.

DISCLOSURE: Mr. Archer owns and/or controls diversified portfolios of long and short stock and option positions that may include holdings in companies he writes about. At publication time, Brent neither owns nor controls positions in CVS.

There's not a whole lot on the economic calendar this coming week, as Thursday is Christmas day. But things are not entirely silent either.

As this is Christmas card season, it's somehow appropriate that American Greetings Corp. (NYSE: AM) is scheduled to report fiscal third-quarter results. Analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters expect the nation's number two producer of greeting cards to report earnings of $0.52 per share, essentially the same as a year ago. Estimated revenue for the quarter is $474.5 million, down 2.3% from a year ago. American Greetings missed analysts' estimates in three of the past four quarters -- by 55.4% in the first quarter. After falling to a multiyear low of $7.85 per share in late November, the price closed Friday at $9.92. But the share price is 53.8% lower than a year ago.

Drugstore chain Walgreen Co. (NYSE: WAG), where one may find American Greetings cards, is expected to also report earnings the same as a year ago, or $0.46 per share, on revenue of $15.1 billion (+7.5%). Walgreen reported a modest increase in sales in October and again in November. The company only missed profit estimates in one of the past four quarters, and that by only a penny. The consensus recommendation remains to buy WAG, which has a long-term EPS growth rate forecast of 12.5%, better than the S&P 500 but less than that of rival CVS Caremark Corp. (NYSE: CVS). Walgreen's share price has been creeping upward since reaching a multiyear low of $21.28 in October and closed Friday at $26.08. (For more on Walgreen, see Steven Mallas's earnings preview.)

Walgreen (NYSE: WAG), a major drugstore chain whose enemies include CVS Caremark (NYSE: CVS) and Rite-Aid (NYSE: RAD), is getting ready to report earnings for its first fiscal quarter on Monday, December 22. It's Christmas week. Will Walgreen bestow a gift of an earnings beat upon the market?

One thing's for sure: the market does not expect much from the drugstore. Wall Street expects flat performance in Q1. The bottom line should come in somewhere around $0.46 per share, the exact same amount that was booked last year. You know, you figure the company should be able to at least match expectations when the bar is set so low. But it might be tough. We all need access to prescriptions and over-the-counter medications every now and then, and on top of that, many people obviously require long-term drug regimens. So, we can see that the pharmacy part of the equation is somewhat resistant to recession. However, there isn't a pressing need for all the non-pharmacy items in a Walgreen location. You don't need to buy any of those cheap plastic toys, any of those blenders that don't work too well, any of the overpriced groceries, etc. This is where Walgreen has exposure to the weakening consumer. Indeed, the consumer is becoming more and more of a value Grinch as time goes on. People just don't want to pay any more than they have to.

Rite-Aid Corporation (NYSE: RAD) is the drugstore you should avoid. You can consider CVS Caremark (NYSE: CVS). You can take a look at Walgreen Company (NYSE: WAG). Rite-Aid? It's definitely not the cure for an ailing portfolio.

The troubled pharmacy chain is no stranger to losses and its public stock sits well below a buck a share. The third quarter numbers don't look too appealing. On an adjusted basis, Rite-Aid lost $0.15 per share. That may have been better than what analysts were calling for, namely a loss of $0.17 per share, but you have to look at the overall picture. Rite-Aid is closing stores, and that will hamper sales going forward (not to mention its brand equity, as well). Some will argue that it's all part of the turnaround. Sure, turnarounds can be ugly and painful, granted, but that doesn't mean you have to participate, hoping for the best. Why hop on this low-priced equity when integration of the Brooks Eckerd assets doesn't seem to be going very well?

According to the press release, there are a few positive statistics. Management says that overall same-store sales were up 1.4%, EBITDA increased over 8%, and operational cash flow was positive over the last three quarters (by comparison, cash was used for operations in the year-ago similar period). But the guidance isn't good, and I have no confidence in this management team to improve its GAAP performance. The company has to juice its sales, but with competition from stronger foes like CVS Caremark and Walgreen, I just don't see any silver lining to the Rite-Aid story. Turnaround specialists can make whatever argument they want. As for me, I'm going to make like the galaxy in Star Wars and stay far, far away from Rite-Aid's stock...

Disclosure: I don't own any company mentioned; positions can change at any time.

Walgreen (NYSE: WAG), a drugstore chain which competes with CVS Caremark (NYSE: CVS) and Rite Aid (NYSE: RAD), dropped the ball in the fourth quarter, at least as far as analyst estimates are concerned. On a GAAP basis, Walgreen increased its earnings per share by a nickel, coming in at 45 cents.

That would be pretty cool if there were no adjustments to be made. Unfortunately, there is one. It relates to an adjustment for vacation-time accrual, which added almost $80 million to the bottom line. Take that away, and you get no earnings growth, as earnings per share would have been 40 cents, meaning non-GAAP number missed expectations by 5 cents.

I think Walgreen is a strong brand in its space. However, with the economic meltdown continuing its dire course, I would imagine that the chain is going to become affected by it, strong brand or not. Drug prescriptions certainly might be considered a defensive element in such an environment, but keep in mind that Walgreen doesn't just make its money on prescription sales. It sells a whole host of items in every location. And I'd have to imagine that the consumer is going to be scaling back. Yep, get ready for the good ole negative wealth effect.

Rite Aid (NYSE: RAD), a drugstore brand that competes with Walgreen (NYSE: WAG) and CVS Caremark (NYSE: CVS), reported results for the second quarter on Thursday. Unfortunately, they did not meet the expectations of analysts. Revenues were basically flat at $6.5 billion. The net loss more than doubled to $0.27 per diluted share, compared to $0.10 per diluted share one year ago. According to this item, Wall Street was hoping that Rite Aid might be able to deliver a loss of $0.15 per diluted share. Furthermore, that news source states that guidance for the fiscal year is worse than the consensus. The consensus believed that Rite Aid might bleed about $0.51 per share in red ink. The loss will at least be $0.56 per share, according to management. It might even go as high as $0.67.

So, I just gave out all the nasty stuff. Is there anything encouraging from the release? Let me put on my look-on-the-bright-side glasses. Net cash from operations was positive during the quarter. Over $96 million was generated. Last year, operations required almost $140 million. I dig cash, no doubt about it. But I really love free cash flow. If you add back sale-leaseback transactions, there was some free cash, but I can't say it changes my general stance on Rite Aid. I mean, overall same-store sales are weak, and the stock is currently priced at less than a buck. It's done horribly year-to-date according to the AOL Finance snapshot taken at the time of this writing. Down 67%. Not encouraging.

Rite Aid's shares aren't so much stock certificates as they are lottery tickets. Do you like playing the lottery? If so, go buy one of those scratch-off deals. You might have better luck with them than you would with Rite Aid.

Disclosure: I don't own any company mentioned; positions can change at any time.

CVS Caremark (NYSE: CVS) will begin testing an upscale beauty store concept this year under the less than creative name "Beauty 360", with the first locations set to open up right next to existing CVS locations. "Beauty 360" will offer 32 lines of skin care and cosmetics along with various fragrances, according to Reuters.

Can you say flop? The problem is that people hate CVS. Googling the phrase "hate CVS" yields 17,900 results, and the chain has experienced success with decent prices on prescription drugs and an expansion strategy that has obliterated most of the mom and pop stores. I can't even imagine why anyone would choose to go to CVS to buy expensive skincare products.

Plus the name "Beauty 360" is really, really, really insipid.

CVS's only hope of having any success with this concept would seem to be making the stores nothing like CVS, and hoping consumers won't notice that there's any connection. Opening them next door won't accomplish that.

CVS Caremark (NYSE: CVS), a big competitor of both Walgreen (NYSE: WAG) and Rite Aid (NYSE: RAD), released its Q1 earnings last week. They were very good, and they reminded me that I probably need to throw a drugstore chain's stock in my core portfolio as a long-term play on the increasing health-care needs of the baby boomers (and every other demo, for that matter).

Looking through the reported growth rates, you can see that we're talking best-of-breed here. Revenues were up over 60%, and adjusted earnings per share increased over 18%, coming in at $0.55. The Caremark merger has obviously proven to be a good move. Same-store sales rose 3.9%, benefited in part by the early appearance of Easter in March.

According to earnings.com, CVS Caremark basically matched earnings expectations. That's okay, though, I don't think you can hold it against this big brand name. As of this writing, CVS is near a 52-week high. Buying at the 52-week high is always a dicey thing, but if you plan on holding for years, it wouldn't be that much of a concern. Shorter-term traders would need to wait for a pullback. But I like the first quarter results for CVS, and I think the stock is poised to do well over time. And like I said at the beginning, this really may be a stock for the core portion of an individual's investment program -- a true buy-and-hold idea.

Disclosure: I don't own shares in any company mentioned here; positions can change at any time.

With the current challenging market conditions probably many of us are wondering which are those reliable stocks that could offer us a big profit in the next coming years. In the light of those questions, Gene Marcial's new book, 7 Commandments of Stock Investing, reveals his perspective over seven stocks that are considered to be worth buying and holding for the next seven years (check out BusinessWeek's slideshow of his seven picks).

Taking advantage of the experience he gained over the past 30 years, BusinessWeek's Gene Marcial shares his opinions related to investors' strategy to use market meltdowns for their own benefit, being able to turn the stock market panic into success.