Want to know how bad it is? Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) shares are down on the day the geeks around the world are waiting in line for the new iPhone, which has gotten rave reviews. Amazing. If people are looking for an excuse to buy Apple, this may be it.
TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says both oil futures and equity futures can move these hot issues. Will the futures pull down the oil and gas stocks today? No, I don't mean the oil futures, I mean the equity futur
Last week when oil exploded, we caught two days of trading that dropped the stocks hard. We caught a bit of a bid in the nat gases likeChesapeake (NYSE:CHK) and Devon (NYSE:DVN) but at the end of the day, but the stocks were truly overwhelmed by the simple fact that they are in the indices.
This pattern has really held down the integrateds: last week Conoco (NYSE:COP) should have exploded, but it couldn't because it is such a big part of the S&P. Chevron (NYSE:CVX) and Exxon (NYSE: XOM) are no different.
The natural gas stocks are not as big a factor, but they can be rocked down without a problem.
I am not saying to avoid looking at the oil futures. They can control the stocks. I am saying that the equity futures tide can take down anything, even when the oil futures spike hard.
Oil rose over $137 Monday after traders calculated that Saudi Arabia's announced production increase will not be able to replace production disruptions in Nigeria, Bloomberg News reported.
Oil rose $2.20 to $137.56 per barrel in Monday mid-day trading. The other major energy commodities also rose on the news. Heating oil jumped 8 cents to $3.85 per gallon, unleaded gasoline gained about 4 cents to $3.47 per gallon, and natural gas climbed about 23 cents to $13.22 per million BTUs.
Attacks on a Royal Dutch Shell (NYSE: RDS.A) platform and a Chevron (NYSE: CVX) pipeline last week halted production of 300,000 barrels of oil per day from Nigeria, Bloomberg News reported. The Nigerian unrest easily offset Saudi Arabia's announcement, at the Jeddah summit it hosted, that it would pump an additional 200,000 barrels per day. Oil's 'safety cushion' is low
Jim Dietz, independent energy trader, told BloggingStocks Monday, a weak dollar and speculator long positions have been factors in oil's more than 4-year bull market, but the No. 1 factor, in his interpretation, is the low 'safety cushion' between daily global oil supply and demand.
As if this country doesn't have enough to worry about, now Donald Trump says that oil companies such as BP (NYSE: BP), Chevron Corp. (NYSE: CVX), and Exxon Mobil Corp. (NYSE: XOM) are ripping us off. According to a story from CNBC, Trump is calling for punitive sanctions against oil companies, citing their historic profit levels.
While calling himself a "great capitalist" and stating that it is against his nature to seek punitive sanctions against companies that are reaping big profits, Donald Trump indicated that it is his opinion that oil companies have been ripping off the world for quite some time. In a statement aired by CNBC, Trump said, "I can see doing something against the oil companies."
With the oil prices moving a lot from one day to the next, many of us are left wondering what could be the best solution when investing into an oil stock: buying it or selling it. As Eric Bolling underlines in TheStreet.com, last week was the first time during the past months when selling was seen as the best option.
The reverse side came on Thursday when the European Central Bank President Jean Claude Trichet warned about possible losses. After announcing that nothing changed for the ECB interest rate policy, Trichet said that the ECB might raise their interest rates which are already hitting high levels.
Last week's oil move proved that even oil prices can be manipulated in their rally. It looks like a few comments added at the right time can dramatically change the course of events. Congressman Bart Stupak's comments that he found nothing illegal going on in the oil price rise were enough to make new longs raise the price $5.49 per barrel for the first time ever.
Standard Oil (1870 - 1911) was the dominant oil company in the world until it was felled by the Sherman Anti-Trust Act of 1890. John D. Rockefeller was a business genius of the first order. He used his control over train routes and refineries to buy up oil wells and block competitors from taking market share.
Thanks to journalist Ida Tarbell, Rockefeller's rough business tactics got plenty of publicity. In 1911, the Supreme Court ruled that Standard Oil had violated the Sherman Anti-Trust Act through its tactics of using low prices to wipe out competitors. The result, as chronicled in one of my favorite books, Ron Chernow's Titan, was a breakup of the company into what is now Chevron (NYSE: CVX), Exxon Mobil (NYSE: XOM), and ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP).
The lesson: What didn't kill Standard Oil made its offspring stronger.
TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says the companies could deliver money to shareholders without sacrificing growth.
What happens if the oil companies start actually recognizing their good fortune -- their sustainable good fortune -- and start boosting dividends the way that Tidewater (NYSE: TDW) (Cramer's Take) did last week with its 67% hike.
Throughout this great run with oil and gas, it seems that the companies themselves haven't caught up with the good fortune. They haven't spent that much on drilling relative to profits, and they have chosen to buy a lot of stock back, never bad. But what if they start returning the profits to shareholders in the form of dividends?
TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says observers demand perfection, but the arrows slung at diverse thinking offer lessons in making money.
The level of perfection people demand, the level of performance they say they demand, the insistence on making money in any particular way, these are all part of what it is like to be, well, me.
One of the best calls I have ever had was with Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) (Cramer's Take). It was a happenstance call, as so many really are but pros won't admit that because well, then why pay them? My daughter wanted a second iPod because she had a pink one and needed a blue one. It was that "fashion statement" wakeup call that told me the numbers for iPods in the analysts' reports were way too low.
I pushed the stock hard everywhere. When I got my own show on CNBC, I endlessly lauded Apple in the $70s, $80s and $90s, and made a major statement when I included it in my Four Horsemen of Tech.
At the end of the year I took it off the list, as I did with all the Horsemen except Research In Motion (NASDAQ: RIMM) (Cramer's Take). The $198 price reeked of greed.
Solar energy may be the wave of energy's future, but companies such as Google (NASDAQ: GOOG) and Chevron (NYSE: CVX) may best start-ups in getting to the benefits. A number of large American companies with tremendous balance sheets are pouring money into solar energy based on the fact that it is becoming more competitive with oil.
According toBloomberg, "Costs for the technology will fall below coal as soon as 2020, the U.S. government estimates. JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Wells Fargo & Co. invested last year in the biggest solar plant built in a generation; Chevron and Google are funding research; and Goldman Sachs is seeking land to lease as demand out-paces wind turbines and geothermal."
Given the potential size of the bonanza, the investments should not be surprising, but they could squeeze smaller solar energy companies out of the market. Firms like JA Solar (NASDAQ: JASO) and SunTech (NYSE: STP) have their entire futures bet on the success of solar energy and the fact that there are not many companies in the business, at least until now.
It has began to occur to large companies that if fossil fuels will indeed start to run low in two or three decades that the trillions of dollars in market cap currently represented in large oil company stocks will have to go somewhere.
TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says they're lousy, so traders have to turn to things like the oscillator for guidance.
Boy, it's tough to find something to like here.
It's tough to even find a thesis.
The litany seems worse than ever: autos falling apart, oil perhaps peaking, volume drying up, mergers falling apart, credit losses back again, lay-offs rising.
To which I say, of course. No kidding. We had a big run up, and when we got there things turned for the worse, not for the better. When that happens you can't fall back on the fundamentals, which are bad and have been bad for what seems like ages, but instead have to fall back on things like the oscillator and the bull/bear ratio. We got very overbought and we lost a lot of bears on that assault on 13,000, and we saw financials, techs, oils, utilities and industrials go for a ride. In the end, even retail had a romp.
Now all of that has to get repealed, even energy for a bit because this last spike to $130 and change was too much too fast even if we ultimately get to this level not far down the road.
Stock futures were a little higher early Thursday morning as stocks seemed poised for a rebound after plunging the last two straight sessions and as oil crossed $135 per barrel.
On Wednesday, U.S. stocks dropped sharply, again, as oil continued to rally, breaking new highs throughout the day and as the FOMC minutes indicated the Federal Reserve expects higher inflation and slower economic growth. The Dow industrials finished the day down 227 points, or 1.77%, the same as the Nasdaq Composite which lost 43 points, and the S&P 500 declined 22 points, or 1.61%.
Not much economic news today except for weekly jobless claims, but no doubt investors will continue to focus on the surging price of oil, now blamed also on Wall Street as traders are scrambling to cover bets. Oil prices rose above $135 to $135.09 a barrel for the first time Thursday, as supply concerns continued increased with reports that the International Energy Agency would cut its supply predictions. Even with assumption that global demand possibly weakening, the weakening U.S dollar drove crude futures up. Still, some blame the oil's rally due to traders covering wrong-way bets that prices would decline and buying crude, according to data from the New York Mercantile Exchange.
TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says lots of companies now thrive with crude up here.
Oil's not a tax on everything -- it's a tax on the consumer. That's what I come down to when I see the charts this weekend and ponder what's happening in so much of industrial America.
Company after company that I examine -- the new techs, as I call them -- actually benefit from higher oil prices. Or they can pass them on with ease, because of the worldwide demand being so strong.
Take all of the companies involved with making a Boeing (NYSE: BA) (Cramer's Take): Boeing itself, Alcoa (NYSE: AA) (Cramer's Take), Honeywell (NYSE: HON) (Cramer's Take) and Precision Castparts (NYSE: PCP) (Cramer's Take) being good examples. Each of these is necessary because the new Dreamliner burns lots less fuel, and with fuel the biggest airline cost, it stands to reason that higher energy prices make the plane more desirable even at a higher price point.
MOST NOTEWORTHY: Syneron Medical, Cellcom Israel, GATX Corp and TNS, Inc were today's noteworthy upgrades:
Merriman upgraded shares of Syneron Medical (NASDAQ:ELOS) to Buy from Neutral following the Q1 results to reflect the introduction of LipoLite and the company's global distribution channel. They believe shares can trade towards the $22-$26 level.
Jefferies upgraded Cellcom Israel (NYSE:CEL) to Buy from Hold following the company's Q1 results to reflect its improved EBITDA outlook.
Morgan Keegan upgraded GATX (NYSE:GMT) to Outperform from Market Perform as they believe the company has increased opportunities to deploy capital given the current state of the market for railcars, which should result in share outperformance.
Suntrust raised TNS, Inc (NYSE:TNS) to Buy from Neutral citing improved execution and the global shift towards electronic transactions.
OTHER UPGRADES:
Chevron (NYSE:CVX) was raised at UBS to Buy from Neutral.
Readers of this space know that one of the preferred sectors has been the oil/oil services sector. Further, with oil now well above $110 per barrel, one may think that all of the affordable oil plays have been bid up. Indeed, most have, but not Chevron.
Chevron Corporation (NYSE: CVX) is the third-largest integrated oil company in the United States.
Chevron's organic reserve replacement, excluding Canadian oil sands, is sub-par, but just about every other dimension of CVX's operation rates good to strong.
Chevron's most attractive dimension? CVX has the equivalent of 'the facilities of significance' in an oil-challenged world, and especially in a gasoline-challenged United States: 22 fuel refineries, to go along with 2 asphalt plants, for a total refining capacity of 2.21 million barrels per day. Almost half of that fuel refining is based in the United States.
According to senior industry sources, the Financial Times reported that the Ministry of Defense could ask General Dynamics Corporation (NYSE: GD) to provide the vehicle design for a new generation of armored vehicles for the army. It is unclear whether General Dynamics, in competition with Nexter and Artec, will be awarded the contract or will be named the preferred bidder.
Following the collapse in March of The Bear Stearns Companies Inc (NYSE: BSC), the Financial Times also reported that the SEC will soon require Wall Street banks to publicly disclose more details about liquidity and capital positions. Cox also urged lawmakers to pass legislation that would allow the SEC, or another regulator, the "explicit mandate to supervise" investment banks.
OTHER PAPERS:
According to the New York Times, Citigroup Incorporated (NYSE: C) will move senior investment banker Alberto Verme to Dubai by the end of the month in the hopes of establishing a stronger foothold in the region, a crucial area for global banks.
The New York Times also reported that several large oil companies, including BP Plc (NYSE: BP), ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP) and Chevron Corporation (NYSE: CVX), agreed to pay nearly $423M in cash in order to settle a lawsuit that alleged water contamination from methyl tertiary butyl ether, a gasoline additive. Under the terms of the deal, the oil giants also agreed to pay 70% of the future cleanup costs for the next 30 years. Exxon Mobil Corporation (NYSE: XOM) and several other companies named in the suit did not agree to the deal.