Continue reading Chasing Value: 2011 Stock Picks Q1 Review -- A Platform for Success

Chasing Value: 2011 Stock Picks Q1 Review -- A Platform for Success originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 04 Apr 2011 10:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

The market tried to hit a new two-plus-year high again today. Anything cautious for the markets is being discounted and valuation concerns are out the door. It seems the bulls are in charge -- regardless of what comes down the pipe in the Middle East, Japan, the PIIGS and elsewhere. Even a goal of only aiming to cut foreign energy dependence by one-third did not rattle markets. The TARP even made money. Maybe we can just convince Bernanke to go ahead and raise rates to get the pain over with, once and for all.

Here were today's unofficial closing bell levels:

Dow Jones: 12,350.61 +71.60 (0.58%)

S&P500: 1,328.26 +8.82 (0.67%)

Nasdaq: 2,776,78 +19.90 (0.72%)

Top Analyst Calls

Continue reading Closing Bell: When No Bears Can Be Found (AAPL, CCJ, CAT, CEPH, CVX, CLNE, DELL, UTA)

Closing Bell: When No Bears Can Be Found (AAPL, CCJ, CAT, CEPH, CVX, CLNE, DELL, UTA) originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 30 Mar 2011 16:15:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

The stock market saw another gainful day despite a reading that consumer sentiment hit a year low. Portugal default fears grew and Japan saw what made for two years of price drops for its consumers. It was pretty impressive to see that most global markets rose on the day. Bond yields were higher and gold failed to reach yesterday's highs.

Here were today's unofficial closing bell levels:

Dow Jones 12,220.59 +50.03 (0.41%)
S&P 500 1,313.80 +4.14 (0.32%)
Nasdaq 2,743.06 +6.64 (0.24%)

Continue reading Closing Bell: From No Worries to Euphoria (ACN, CVX, CLH, EWJ, ORCL, RIMM, S)

Closing Bell: From No Worries to Euphoria (ACN, CVX, CLH, EWJ, ORCL, RIMM, S) originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Fri, 25 Mar 2011 16:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Analyst Upgrades

• Exxon Mobil (XOM), Netflix (NFLX), Noble Corp. (NE), Pioneer Natural (PXD) and Noble Energy (NBL) to buy from neutral at Goldman.
• Cenovus Energy (CVE) to conviction buy from neutral and Atwood Oceanics (ATW) to neutral from sell at Goldman as well.
• Southern Company (SO) to buy from hold at Citigroup.
• Chevron (CVX) to buy from neutral at BofA/Merrill.
• Ryder (R), Entergy (ETR) and Seaspan (SSW) to buy from hold at Jefferies.
• Gerdau (GGB), Crown Castle (CCI) and American Tower (AMT) to buy from neutral at UBS.
• Aon (AON) and Willis Group (WSH) to buy from neutral at Janney Capital.
• Ryland Group (RYL) to buy from neutral at Ticonderoga.

Continue reading Analyst Calls: AON, CVX, HBI, MUR, NBL, NFLX, NVDA, SO, XOM ...

Analyst Calls: AON, CVX, HBI, MUR, NBL, NFLX, NVDA, SO, XOM ... originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 15 Mar 2011 13:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

The Chinese government released trade data that portrays a $7.3 billion deficit. Is that believable or just convenient amid the international pressure to raise the value of their currency? We can hardly believe what comes out of Washington, so data coming out of China has to be quite suspect.

I'm sure they retained qualified independent auditors to ascertain the validity of the figures -- yeah right ...

Continue reading Chasing Value: A Chinese Trade Deficit?

Chasing Value: A Chinese Trade Deficit? originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Fri, 11 Mar 2011 16:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Continue reading Stock Futures Lower Following Japan's Quake

Stock Futures Lower Following Japan's Quake originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Fri, 11 Mar 2011 08:54:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

If you haven't already, now may be a good time to consider taking some profits of the table with Chevron Corp. (CVX). However, investors who can tolerate the risk can maintain their full position in CVX and go for an even bigger gain, as the company's shares are headed north.

I first discussed Chevron here on February 15, 2009, at a price of $66.18. Chevron's shares have raced through $90 resistance this winter and are set to test major psychological resistance at $100.

Continue reading Chevron Is in an Uptrend

Chevron Is in an Uptrend originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 14 Feb 2011 12:20:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Continue reading Chasing Value: 2011 Picks Dust the S&P

Chasing Value: 2011 Picks Dust the S&P originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 01 Feb 2011 15:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

A little over a week ago the chart players took short positions in the oil sector. Since then the world has changed dramatically.

Egypt is engulfed in a civil uprising and protesters are clamoring for President Hosni Mubarak to step down. Uncertainty is the new state of affairs. Uncertainty breeds fear and fear has taken over the energy sector.

The chart guys quickly covered their shorts and now the bulls have the market. This is fundamental. Three million barrels of oil a day pass through the Suez Canal and the Sumed pipeline. You can throw the charts out the window.

Continue reading Brent Crude Oil Holds Above $100 per Barrel

Brent Crude Oil Holds Above $100 per Barrel originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 01 Feb 2011 10:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

The market is getting gently hammered today, but that only presents more opportunities from my perspective.

I am in Ixtapa, Mexico, nearing the conclusion of my first ever week long rest during a 35 year working career ... and counting. In some ways I am hoping to mold my future working environment from seashore to shining seashore -- all around the world -- taking advantage of modern technology. I am thinking of it as "have beach (+Internet), will travel."

Continue reading Chasing Value: Profiting from Ixtapa -- Buffett, Gold, Oil, Options and More

Chasing Value: Profiting from Ixtapa -- Buffett, Gold, Oil, Options and More originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Fri, 28 Jan 2011 17:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

With earnings season in full swing, the FOMC meeting on interest rates, the GDP estimate, and housing numbers due out, the coming week is shaping up to be a busy one. So here's a peek at what's on the economic calendar.

Monday

Quarterly reports from American Express (AXP) and McDonald's (MCD) will highlight Monday. Amgen (AMGN), CSX (CSX), Halliburton (HAL) and Texas Instruments (TXN) are also expected to report strong earnings results.

Continue reading Week in Preview: GDP, FOMC Meeting, Housing Data and Lots of Earnings

Week in Preview: GDP, FOMC Meeting, Housing Data and Lots of Earnings originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Sun, 23 Jan 2011 12:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

I have already gone on record this year saying that financial companies and insurance stocks are going to continue to rebound. In my previous two posts Chasing Value: 2011 Stock Picks -- 5 of 11 and Chasing Value: 2011 Stock Picks -- 6, 7, 8, 9, I included several financial institutions. Today I add an insurance company.

The industry got whacked hard for many reasons. For one, it makes a significant amount of profit by investing its float, and like every other investor, the industry lost a pile of money in the financial crisis. It was embroiled more directly than some industries, as several insurers are affiliated with banks. Finally the housing crisis meant disruption to payment streams by homeowners who were delinquent on more than their mortgages.

Continue reading Chasing Value: 2011 Stock Picks -- 10 and 11

Chasing Value: 2011 Stock Picks -- 10 and 11 originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 10 Jan 2011 09:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

This is the fifth year that I am posting my stock picks for the year. There is a lot of foolishness in doing so because each year that I have made such suggestions, including 2009 when I owned all of the picks, it is assumed that I would hold all of the positions without responding to market conditions, or changes in the specific company. No adding to, or cutting a position. This is not the real world.

It is not possible for everything to remain static. For example, you might find that you hold a stock that made a great run through three quarters, beyond your wildest expectations, and decide it has passed a point where the metrics cannot support anything close to the price. Under normal circumstances you might sell it, except you cannot. By the end of the year the profit you might have realized fades away and you end up reporting on something that is not a true measure of your objective strategy. Nevertheless, once again I will stick with this approach because this seems to be how its done in every publication's annual picks. This year there are eleven.

Continue reading Chasing Value: 2011 Stock Picks -- 5 of 11

Chasing Value: 2011 Stock Picks -- 5 of 11 originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 05 Jan 2011 14:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Oil recently traded at $91.00 per barrel and many analysts are looking for $100 per barrel. Against that backdrop, global oil companies are ramping up exploration to record levels for 2011.

The Wall Street Journal reports that Barclays (BCS) estimates that spending on new wells, producing platforms and other energy infrastructure will total $490 billion in 2011, an increase of 11%.

Continue reading Rising Oil Prices Prompt Record Spending on Exploration

Rising Oil Prices Prompt Record Spending on Exploration originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Sun, 02 Jan 2011 10:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Continue reading Chasing Value: New Years Quick Takes

Chasing Value: New Years Quick Takes originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 29 Dec 2010 16:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

The list of stocks has been whittled down to four. Chevron Corporation (CVX) made the cut to become the oil company stock. Three defense sector powerhouses are competing for one spot in Chasing Value: 2011 Stock Picks -- The Journey Begin.

Today we take a more comprehensive view returning to earlier metrics, and adding some other criteria in order to reach a conclusion. This series began with the contention that making specific predictions was a fools errand with the danger to your portfolio coming from "black swans". To try and add some general counter measures to this possibility I decided that the defense and oil sectors might provide protection against the greatest of threats, war and terrorism. On that basis I posted Chasing Value: You Must Own Defense and Oil for Safety.

Continue reading Chasing Value: Defense and Oil -- Part 4 Conclusion

Chasing Value: Defense and Oil -- Part 4 Conclusion originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Fri, 17 Dec 2010 11:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

The list of stocks under consideration has been reduced from eleven to ten, to seven and now in today's story four. Starting with five major defense contractors and six major oil companies (see Chasing Value: You Must Own Defense and Oil for Safety), I began a search to find one stock in each sector that might be suitable for inclusion in my list of 2011 stock picks posted last week Chasing Value: 2011 Stock Picks -- The Journey Begin.

Today we continue our analysis by examining return on equity (ROE), return on invested capital (ROIC), and price-to-earnings-to-growth (PEG). Each stock is ranked by sector and metric from best to worst. Sometimes there are clear winners and others there is little to separate one stock from the next. However, in total, a picture can be drawn that does portray a superior opportunity.

Continue reading Chasing Value: Defense and Oil -- Part 3

Chasing Value: Defense and Oil -- Part 3 originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 16 Dec 2010 12:20:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

This series started with five major defense contractors and six major oil companies that are worthy considerations to help your portfolio survive a global crisis (see Chasing Value: You Must Own Defense and Oil for Safety). After the first review, one stock was eliminated from consideration: Petroleo Brasileiro (PBR). The reason is in the first story.

Today we continue our analysis by examining price-to-book (P/B), price-to-cash-flow (P/CF), and dividend yield. Each stock is ranked by sector and metric from best to worst. In the end we hope to narrow down our choices for candidates that might be added to Chasing Value: 2011 Stock Picks -- The Journey Begins.

Continue reading Chasing Value: Defense and Oil -- Part 2

Chasing Value: Defense and Oil -- Part 2 originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 15 Dec 2010 12:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Continue reading Chasing Value: You Must Own Defense and Oil for Safety

Chasing Value: You Must Own Defense and Oil for Safety originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 14 Dec 2010 16:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Chevron's (CVX) shares, first discussed here on February 15, 2009, at a price of $66.18, burst higher this fall, finally ending a long period of doldrums and volatility that many refiners displayed during the gasoline demand slump.

In fact, with CVX testing $88, now may be a good time to consider taking some profits off the table with Chevron.

Further, assuming no more irregular events (such as oil spills) in the oil sector, look for Chevron's production to increase from its current 2.75 million barrels per day (bpd) by about 2% to 2.5% per year through 2012. Meanwhile, its reserve replacement rate remains adequate.

Continue reading Chevron: Time to Take Some Profits off the Table?

Chevron: Time to Take Some Profits off the Table? originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 23 Nov 2010 14:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.