Continue reading Comcast's Key: Cable System Subscribers

Comcast's Key: Cable System Subscribers originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 26 Jan 2010 17:20:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Continue reading Cablevision has the right assets for the digital age

Cablevision has the right assets for the digital age originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 02 Dec 2009 17:20:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Continue reading Comcast is holding its own against new t.v. providers

Comcast is holding its own against new t.v. providers originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 22 Apr 2009 18:15:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Continue reading Why I have changed my tune about Comcast

Why I have changed my tune about Comcast originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 30 Jul 2008 15:03:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

NBC Universal, which is a part of GE (NYSE: GE), has apparently agreed to shell out $3.5 billion for the Weather Channel. The deal involves a partnership with two marquee private equity firms: Bain Capital LLC and Blackstone Group LP (NYSE: BX).

The transaction has weathered the credit crunch -- as well as survived a gestation period that has gone on for most of 2008. But, in the end, it looks like NBC got a nice deal (keep in mind that it looked like the Weather Channel tried to snag $5 billion or so).

The Weather Channel has extensive distribution (#3 in the US). What's more, there will be synergy with NBC's digital weather property, Weather Plus. Oh, and NBC has lots of experience integrating cable companies, such as Bravo and Sci Fi.

Although, perhaps the most important part of the deal is weather.com, which gets 36+ million unique visitors per month. This ranks it as the #15 site on the web. No doubt, NBC can leverage its advertising -- as well as other websites -- across this virtual real estate.

Finally, the Weather Channel transaction points to a possible new model for private equity; that is, partnering with strategic buyers. It's a good way to deploy capital but also get cost/revenue synergies.

Tom Taulli is the author of various books, including The Complete M&A Handbook and The Edgar Online Guide to Decoding Financial Statements. He also operates MergerBook.com.

NBC Universal strikes a sunny deal for the Weather Channel originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 07 Jul 2008 09:18:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Service so bad, city of Los Angeles sues Time Warner Cable (TWC) originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 09 Jun 2008 13:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Cable operator Comcast (NASDAQ: CMCSA), a competitor of DirecTV (NYSE: DTV) and DISH Network (NASDAQ: DISH), issued its first-quarter earnings report on Thursday, and overall it was a satisfying set of data. Revenues grew 14% to $8.4 billion. Adjusted earnings per share increased 12% to $0.19 (on a reported basis, however, they did decline by 8%). One of my favorite things to look at is free cash flow -- Comcast scored here, as free cash jumped 59% to over $700 million.

I've never owned Comcast stock, and I'm on record as preferring content companies over distribution platforms. That being said, I do have to say that Comcast is a pretty good name in its industry, and that it seems to be doing quite well with its various offerings. Looking through the earnings release, I see that Comcast added close to half-a-million digital cable customers. The high-speed internet service and digital-phone service also seem to be performing (on an anecdotal level, it does feel like more and more people are taking up the triple-play suite that Comcast is constantly promoting). The programming segment, which includes channels such as E! and The Golf Channel, saw revenues increase 20% and it delivered a nice stream of cash flow. The company bought back almost 2% of its outstanding shares, and management plans to buy more under its repurchase initiative.

If you're looking to get in on the stock, I'd wait for a pullback after Thursday's 8% pop in share price. Like I say, I do like content companies, but Comcast might be an interesting long-term idea, since it will probably be the beneficiary of a desire on the part of media conglomerates such as Disney (NYSE: DIS), Time Warner (NYSE: TWX), and Viacom (NYSE: VIA) to engage more digital distribution via video-on-demand and to, in fact, experiment with day-and-date release (which I talked about in a recent piece). If this paradigm ever hits a critical mass, then Comcast should do well with it.

Disclosure: I own shares in Disney; positions can change at any time.

Comcast's earnings and cash flow impress, but wait for a pullback in share price originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Fri, 02 May 2008 08:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

The Wall Street Journal suggests that cable stocks, which have sold off sharply over the last three quarters, might now be a good investment. That is probably wrong. The paper says that "while cable stocks lately have bounced from bottoms hit earlier this year, they still are trading at 10-year lows along several key metrics."

But, cable has never had so much competition and that is likely to grow. Firms such as Comcast (NASDAQ:CMCSA) and Time Warner Cable (NYSE:TWC) are up against new fiber-to-the-home TV and broadband offerings from telecom companies, especially Verizon (NYSE:VZ). The phone firm's FiOS product is picking up customers and it has not been rolled out in most of the 18 million homes where Verizon has customers.

The phone companies have a special advantage. They can bundle cellular, broadband, TV, and landline service to individual customers and give them "one-stop shopping."

Cable is also up against new and improved products from satellite TV companies. Firms like DirecTV (NYSE: DTV) are adding a number of HD channels. Cable does not always have the bandwidth to put as many of these channels on its systems.

Cable stocks are down because competition is way up. Much of that has come recently and it is likely to get worse.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.

Can cable stocks get back in vogue? originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 03 Apr 2008 10:40:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Verizon (NYSE: VZ)'s roll-out of HDTV and broadband with its fiber-to-the-home product looked so promising. It even got shareholders in cable companies nervous. They were worried that the phone company would start to take away their digital cable TV customers.

All of that was looking very good for Verizon until it started to run out of the set-top boxes that make the HDTV system work in homes. As if things were not bad enough for Motorola (NYSE: MOT), it looks like the company's set-top operation may be at fault. The Wall Street Journal says ,"a Motorola spokeswoman confirmed that demand for the HD set-top box was 'strong and has exceeded expectations. We are pleased with this positive response and we are working closely with our suppliers to ensure that we meet the needs of our customers as quickly as possible.'"

What a lot of bull. While the market may never know where the mix-up was, Verizon certainly knows how many customers it plans to add and its inventory of boxes. Motorola knows what the demand is across its customer base and whether its manufacturing can handle the load.

Either way, Verizon has given its competition a gift. Who wants high-speed wiring that won't work with the TV?

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.

Verizon (VZ) hits an HDTV wall: Motorola (MOT) originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 19 Feb 2008 09:09:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Comcast a 'slacker stock' no more originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 14 Feb 2008 09:38:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Current IPO shows Al Gore likes green money too originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 28 Jan 2008 11:47:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Chieftain Capital Management, which manages 60.5 million Comcast (NASDAQ:CMCSA) shares, wants to oust CEO Brian Roberts.

Roberts, though, is not going anywhere. His father founded the no. 1 cable company and his family retains a controlling interest. But the Chieftain move shows what a desperate investor will do when shares in a company drop more than 40% in a year. In the case of Comcast, it is an exercise in futility.

Chieftain, which owns about 2% of the outstanding shares, wants Comcast to borrow money and return cash to shareholders. The company could do that, or it could use the cash to improve infrastructure to more effectively compete against the phone companies. The long-term views of entrenched founders are put against the shareholder who wants the quick return.

What Chieftain does not want to acknowledge is that cable is going through an industry-wide drop in share prices. Time Warner Cable (NYSE: TWC) and other similar companies have also seen their stocks fall sharply due to a slowing economy, the FCC's attempt to increase regulation, and competing offerings from telephone companies.

Chieftain might as well save its breath and take the fight elsewhere.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.

Comcast shareholder wants to oust CEO Brian Roberts originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Fri, 18 Jan 2008 08:50:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Almost no one watches the News Corp (NYSE: NWS) Fox Business Network.

What is the channel's viewership? According to The New York Times "about 6,300, on average, on any given weekday, according to early estimates compiled by Nielsen Media Research." The comparable number for rival CNBC was 283,000 viewers based on data between October 15 and December 14.

The news has to be a humiliation for Fox. It started the network by saying that it would be a credible challenge to CNBC, and it spent millions of dollars on promoting the new network.

It may get harder for the network to get people to come on its shows. Who wants to go to a studio to be seen by a few kids who are watching TV because they are home sick from school?

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.

Fox Business gets crushed originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Fri, 04 Jan 2008 09:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

For several years, Comcast (NASDAQ: CMCSA) was considered one of the most successful companies in America. It used its cable franchise to build a huge broadband, VOD, and VoIP cash machine. The so-called "triple play" of voice, TV, and broadband could not be matched by telecom competitors, so Comcast took hundreds of thousands of phone customers away from them each quarter.

From mid-2003 to early 2007, Comcast shares rose close to 100%. During the last three months, they are down 27%.

It finally occurred to Wall Street that competition from satellite TV and the new fiber-to-the-home products from telecom companies like Verizon (NYSE:VZ) were eating into Comcast's customer base. The company recently announced that its growth and cash flow would be less than expected. Customer growth was slowing and the firm had to put more money into infrastructure so that it could improve offerings for products like HDTV.

An influential cable analyst, Benjamin Swinburne of Morgan Stanley, says the slide in Comcast shares is over. According to Barron's the analyst "notes that the stock's multiples have been compressed to historic lows." He also thinks EPS and free cash flow could grow as much as 20% a year, if Comcast can keep adding voice and HDTV customers.

The logic for Comcast making a comeback may be a little thin. Verizon's FiOS is taking customers from Comcast and it is only in a small fraction of the 18 million homes that will eventually have access to the service.That means that the head-to-head competition for the cable company will actually increase. And satellite TV companies continue to ramp up their programming and HDTV offering.

The worst is probably not over for Comcast.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.

Comcast: Is the collapse over? originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Fri, 07 Dec 2007 11:02:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Cable shares were beginning to get back on track. FCC plans to further regulate the industry never made it off the ground. It looked like the the industry had clear running.

But, Comcast (NASDAQ: CMCSA) issued a profit warning saying that its cash flow in 2007 might be only 80% of what it was last year. The number of subscribers it expected to sign up would fall from previous forecasts and capital spending on new infrastructure would rise. Barron's reports "the company now sees revenue generating units up about 6 million, to 57 million, rather than previous guidance of 6.5 million unit growth. Comcast now sees cable revenue growth of about 11%, down from previous guidance of at least 12%."

It appears that Wall Street was right when it began to fear the worst about fiber-to-the-home competition from telephone companies. The new technology allows them to offer fast broadband, HDTV, and voice service in one package. For several years only cable could do that. Now the telecoms, lead by Verizon (NYSE: VZ), are aggressively offering their own packages.

For investors, the problem is that new competition is likely to keep cable stocks down for a long time. That means that the lows that they hit recently may be as good as it gets.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.

As Comcast cuts guidance, cable faces new challenge originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 05 Dec 2007 09:35:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Continue reading Media World: Fox Business Network's boneheaded mistakes

Media World: Fox Business Network's boneheaded mistakes originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Fri, 02 Nov 2007 16:31:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

The Associated Press reports that News Corp.'s (NYSE: NWS) Fox News Network plans to launch Fox Business Network (FBN) to compete with General Electric's (NYSE: GE) NBC Universal's CNBC on October 15. Will the two really compete? CNBC targets upscale investors while FBN says it's targeting Main Street.

One interesting detail in this article is that Dow Jones & Company's (NYSE: DJ) arrangement with CNBC -- giving it exclusive access to the Wall Street Journal until 2012 -- only covers business-related news. This allows FBN to use Journal coverage of other areas such as Washington and lifestyle topics.

I think CNBC will feel threatened by FBN and continue to respond by offering conservative-leaning and big-business-boosterish coverage. Meanwhile FBN will use its well-practiced brand of Amen Chorus stories that both demonize the enemy -- in this case CNBC -- while appearing to support the voiceless, powerless little guy. If I ran CNBC, I would focus primarily on giving my core audience more of what it wants and not try to imitate FBN through patriotic-sounding stories.

Advertisers will pay a premium to access CNBC's upscale viewers and GE cannot afford to lose those dollars.

Peter Cohan is president of Peter S. Cohan & Associates,. He also teaches management at Babson College and edits The Cohan Letter. He owns GE stock, has consulted to News Corp.'s CEO, has appeared as a guest on CNBC and Forbes on Fox, and has no financial interest in Dow Jones.

Fox Business Network faces off against CNBC originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 19 Sep 2007 14:05:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Viacom (NYSE: VIA)'s Nickelodeon network, arguably the top brand in kids' television, will be spinning off two new networks: Noggin, a commercial-free daytime station for preschoolers and N, which targets teens.

This makes sense from a branding perspective -- Having N and Noggin on the same station gave the channel a lack of focus, which often prevents the network from building a core audience. But on a more immediate level, this may not help anything: Does it really make sense to have a 24-hour network for kids who are in school most of the day?

At least in terms of crossover success, Nickelodeon is getting killed by the Disney (NYSE: DIS) Channel, which has had breakthrough hits like High School Musical (Kevin Kelly's favorite movie) and Hannah Montana.

Nickelodeon is too small a part of the Viacom empire for this to have any material effect on the stock price.

Nickelodeon to launch two new networks originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 13 Aug 2007 15:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Walt Disney Corp. (NYSE: DIS), Comcast Corp. (NASDAQ: CMCSA) and Time Warner Inc. (NYSE: TWX) may be tempted to pick up the Yankee Entertainment & Sports Network, the cable TV channel that broadcasts the baseball team's games which Bloomberg News said could be worth as much as $2 billion.

The channel, whose owners include Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (NYSE: GS) and former New Jersey Nets owner Raymond Chambers, is "running a limited check" and would only consider selling if it got a price "reflecting its real value," spokesman Peter Rose told Bloomberg. Funny guy to be quoted in a baseball story. I guess anything is for sale at the right price. What an original concept.

It will be an interesting test of wills between Disney's ESPN and Comcast. ESPN remains a juggernaut for the house that Mickey built. Comcast is trying to challenge ESPN with its Comcast SportsNet channels including the one I watch in Philadelphia that broadcasts Phillies games.

Remember, we're talking about the Yankees here, one of the most recognized though not necessarily loved franchises in baseball. New Yorkers, though, continue to love their Bronx Bombers even though they have struggled this year.

But the time the YES network is sold, however, slugger Alex Rodriguez will have left the Big Apple for parts unknown. With $2 billion in the bank, I'm sure the team could afford to replace him.

Disney, Comcast, Time Warner may bid for Yankees TV network originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 02 Aug 2007 16:20:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

The reported tiff between CNBC's Money Honey Maria Bartiromo and upstart Erin Burnett, whom the New York Post dubbed the "Street Sweetie,'' is mana from heaven for News Corp. (NYSE: NWS) Chief Executive Rupert Murdoch.

His Post gets a juicy chick fight to write about -- although the General Electric Co. (NYSE: GE) cable channel denies there is a fight -- and it makes a rival to his yet-to-be launched Fox Business Channel look foolish as a bonus. Plus, it gives Fox a good excuse to try and lure either one of them away from CNBC. Interesting how corporate synergies work in today's media world.

Mind you, I have no idea whether Bartiromo and Burnett hate each other or not. Usually, Page Six is pretty truthy in the Stephen Colbert sense of the word. You have to think that someone close to Bartiromo or Burnett -- perhaps the person who looks back at them in the mirror -- is spilling their guts to the Post. Yes, the media world is just like high school.

Bartiromo has long been a subject of the gossip pages. I urged CNBC to fire Bartiromo earlier this year after her relationship with ousted Citigroup Inc. (NYSE: C) executive Todd Thompson brought derision on the network. Since then, she's indicated that she's more interested in being a TV star than a journalist. Burnett, whose path I crossed when I was at Bloomberg News, is gaining the good kind of publicity. In fact, Broadcasting and Cable called her CNBC's "secret weapon."

But there's an extra dimension to this tabloid battle that's worth considering.

There are many media conspiracy theorists who argue that Rupert Murdoch will tabloid up the Wall Street Journal once he gets a hold of Dow Jones & Co. (NYSE: DJ). I think that these fears are overblown. Murdoch won't use the Journal to settle scores with his enemies and heap praise on his friends. Why should he when the Post does that so well?

Media World: Rupert Murdoch will win the Bartiromo-Burnett battle originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Fri, 27 Jul 2007 16:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.