Cal-Maine Foods (NASDAQ: CALM - option chain) stock is trading slightly lower today after the company announced Q1 results this morning, posting a loss of 0.16 per share. Total losses for the egg farmer were $3.8M. CALM, which has had a 2% yield over the past year will skip paying a dividend this quarter because of the loss. If you think this stock won't be rising too far in the coming months, then it could be a good time to look at a bearish hedged play on CALM.

This morning, CALM opened at $25.60. So far today the stock has hit a high of $27.89 and a low of $24.90. As of 11:55, CALM is trading at $27.72, down 6 cents (-0.2%). The chart for CALM looks bearish.

Autumn has arrived and the quarter winds down this week. The Dow has been inching toward 10,000 for a while now, though it closed lower in the past three sessions. Can it make it to 10,000 for the start of the third quarter? If so, what will push it higher? If not, what will drag it down further?

• Monday is Yom Kippur, the most solemn of the Jewish holidays; trading likely will be lighter than usual. In the evening, the FDIC meets to discuss how to rebuild the Bank Deposit Insurance Fund.
• Tuesday, the Consumer Confidence Index for September is due and the SEC holds a public meeting to consider more short sale actions.

An update: a decision to close two short positions - due to the probability of higher-than-expected U.S. GDP growth in Q3/Q4, and the impact that better economic recovery would have on consumer spending.

The two closed positions: Panera Bread (NASDAQ: PNRA), recommended on May 29, 2009 at a price of $52.65, and Cal-Maine Foods (NYSE: CALM), recommended on the same day at a price of $23.21.

Investor and trader Mishko Janusevich had a mantra that he used to repeat while outlining the top, new stock shorts that appeared that day, as determined by technical indicators.

He would stand next to the overhead projected stock chart at the front of the trading room, point to the stock chart and recite, "You see this stock? You see that it's dropped $8 in past two days? You think it can't drop any more? SELL THAT STOCK it's dropping more!!"

Short these shares if you can tolerate high-risk and are an experienced investor that does not remove Buy/Stop Losses.

I often talk stocks with my father, and he believes that with the economy in tatters, the big beneficiaries in the coming year will be companies that produce and sell food. His simple theory is that with discretionary spending at a minimum, "everybody still needs to eat."

While it's certainly hard to argue with the fact that we all need sustenance, a different case can be made for investing in suppliers and vendors of food.

My dad thinks prices at the store will rise much higher because it's still cheaper than eating out, thus, great profits will be had by everyone up and down the supply chain.

But I'm not so sure.

Cal-Maine Foods, Inc. (NASDAQ: CALM), which released earnings on Monday, is a good example of why I'm not jumping onboard with this theory.

The company, which is currently the largest producer and distributor of fresh-shell eggs in the United States, said profit for its second fiscal quarter fell 32% as sales to egg-product makers and the food service industry slowed, and feed costs remained high.

Cal-Maine earned $1.14 per share for the quarter ended Nov. 29, but last year it earned $1.69 a share.

As the calendar year winds down, the news no doubt will be full of stories (like the one below from AP) analyzing incoming holiday sales figures and speculating on what they mean for the big picture.

About the only confirmed company reporting quarterly earnings results next week is Cal-Maine Foods Inc. (NYSE: CALM), the largest producer/distributor of eggs in the U.S. Analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters are, on average, looking for the Jackson, Miss.-based company to report earning $1.26 per share in its fiscal second quarter. That's 25.4% lower than in the same period of the previous year. In its first-quarter report back in September, Cal-Maine also reported a drop in net income as rising feed costs offset increased demand. While the share price has fallen 22.2% in the past three months, it is up 14.0% from a year ago. Cal-Maine recently completed its acquisition of a Tampa Bay egg producer.

Economic data scheduled to be released this week include:

Cal-Maine Foods (NASDAQ: CALM) is the largest producer of fresh shell eggs in the United States, distributing its products to grocery store chains, club stores, foodservice distributors and egg product manufacturers throughout the southwestern, southeastern, mid-western and mid-Atlantic regions. The company also offers reduced cholesterol, cage free, and organic eggs under the Egg-Land's Best and Farmhouse labels. Cal-Maine operates breeding facilities, hatcheries, feed mills, egg production sites and processing facilities in 16 states across its distribution regions. It provides for nearly 16% of total U.S. egg consumption.

Investors were pleased Monday, when Barron's reported that CALM shares could double over the next year. Analysis was offered suggesting the potential for $7 per share in earnings next year, a three-fold increase from early 2008 levels.

When natural disasters happen, there are always some companies that can turn the circumstances in their favor. Recent downpours in the Midwest provided such an opportunity as they came not only with high damages for people in the area, but also with floods for crop production, causing even higher agricultural commodity prices. The rise in corn and soybeans prices could easily lead to an increased demand for seeds, agricultural equipment, and fertilizers. BusinessWeek suggests some big names to invest in that could offer us the advantages we are looking for.

One such company is Archer Daniels Midland (NYSE: ADM), which could also benefit from higher ethanol prices, after purchasing seven businesses in 2007. Bunge Limited (NYSE: BG) is also amid possible winners, having forecast better-than-expected fertilizer earnings. Shell eggs producer Cal-Maine Foods (NASDAQ: CALM) is also on the selected list; the company saw its shares climb 15% year to date, and has just revealed a new dividend payout policy.

Another important name is Mosaic Co. (NYSE: MOS), whose stock prices have surged 70% so far this year. BusinessWeek cites Mosaic as being able to benefit from higher prices for fertilizer and potash. Following the same logic, the article points out potash provider Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan (NYSE: POT) and fertilizer distributor CF Industries Holdings (NYSE: CF), which should be able to take advantage of the weak dollar and higher sales prices.

Cal-Maine Foods (NASDAQ: CALM), a producer and marketer of fresh shell eggs, is expected to report Q3 EPS on March 31. CALM shares have rallied 173% over the past 12 months. CALM will initiate a variable dividend policy during Q3 to replace a fixed dividend policy. According to NASDAQ, CALM on March 14 had a short interest of 12,436,184 shares with average daily volume of 585,828 shares. CALM April 35 straddle is priced at $7. CALM May 35 straddle is priced at $9. CALM May call option implied volatility is at 87, puts are at 103--above its 26-week average of 68 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price movement. Puts are price higher than call because CALM is difficult to borrow.

Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com.