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Activision Blizzard's Q3: Am I right to be bearish?

Activision Blizzard (NASDAQ: ATVI) published third-quarter results on Thursday after the bell. I can't say I was wholly taken with them. I know the best is probably yet to come once the Christmas shopping season really gets under way, but I was a little disappointed that the company saw a decline in adjusted profit.

Excluding items, Activision Blizzard made 4 cents per share this quarter versus the 7 cents per share made in last year's similar period. Well, did I say I was a little disappointed? Make that a lot disappointed. After all, this is supposed to be the publisher with the best pipeline on the block, the one with the Guitar Hero franchise and a great portfolio of licensed intellectual properties.

Continue reading Activision Blizzard's Q3: Am I right to be bearish?

Activision Blizzard still looking good?

Activision Blizzard (NASDAQ: ATVI) remains confident in its guidance for full-year earnings. According to StreetInsider.com, management is still looking for sales of $4.5 billion on the top line and adjusted earnings of 63 cents per share on the bottom line.

The publisher, which competes with Electronic Arts Inc. (NASDAQ: ERTS), should benefit from recent hardware price cuts made by Sony Corporation (NYSE: SNE) and Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ: MSFT). With more units in the field, there most likely will be higher demand for Activision Blizzard's awesome pipeline, which includes Call of Duty.

Continue reading Activision Blizzard still looking good?

Activision Blizzard CEO Bobby Kotick needs to tone down rhetoric

I was looking around today for a stock to buy. I came up empty-handed. One of my ideas was Activision Blizzard (NASDAQ: ATVI). I was intrigued this week by reports that said the company wants to have the launch to end all launches for the next Call of Duty title. Quite frankly, I think there's a chance the company will succeed with this. So, naturally, my thoughts turned to shares of Activision Blizzard as a possible buy candidate. Although I already own the stock in a longer-term, taxed portfolio, I wanted a trade for my Roth IRA.

Well, I couldn't buy the company. It's up today (3% at the time of this writing), and I do not want to buy any stock when it's up. Not now, at any rate. The market has come too far too fast, in my opinion, and I want to trade carefully. But, while looking at Activision Blizzard, I came across this article from Ben Kuchera over at Ars Technica. He discusses comments made by the publisher's CEO, Bobby Kotick, on Sony Corporation (NYSE: SNE) and its PlayStation platforms.

Continue reading Activision Blizzard CEO Bobby Kotick needs to tone down rhetoric

Can Electronic Arts capitalize on the Wii Fit craze?

Electronic Arts (NASDAQ: ERTS) hasn't been doing as well as its colleague Activision Blizzard (NASDAQ: ATVI). Indeed, when it comes to the numbers, Activision, which is responsible for franchise hits Guitar Hero and Call of Duty, has its competitor beat.

But EA recently released an exercise system for the Nintendo (OTC: NTDOY) Wii that was highlighted at CNBC.com. The piece mentions the enormous marketing presence that is supporting EA Sports Active. You get a couple accessories with the software: a leg strap that is used like a controller to interact with the screen, and a resistance band to increase the effectiveness of the workout. Oprah Winfrey's trainer apparently assisted EA with the design.

Continue reading Can Electronic Arts capitalize on the Wii Fit craze?

Activision Blizzard beats in Q1 -- is it still a strong investment idea?

Activision Blizzard (NASDAQ: ATVI), a video-game publisher that competes with Electronic Arts (NASDAQ: ERTS), THQ (NASDAQ: THQI), and Take-Two Interactive (NASDAQ: TTWO), reported some cool first-quarter numbers on Thursday after the bell. On an adjusted basis, the company earned 8 cents per share. According to analysts, Activision Blizzard was only supposed to do around 5 cents per share.

Not only was the bottom line solid, but revenues on an adjusted basis also came in ahead of expectations. And you can thank the usual suspects for powering up the quarter. You've got Call of Duty. You've got Guitar Hero. You've got World of Warcraft. These best-of-breed franchises are selling a lot of copies on Sony's (NYSE: SNE) PlayStation 3, Microsoft's (NASDAQ: MSFT) Xbox 360, and Nintendo's (OTC: NTDOY) Wii.

Continue reading Activision Blizzard beats in Q1 -- is it still a strong investment idea?

GameStop issues a good report, but stock sells off -- buy it?

GameStop (NYSE: GME) reported earnings for Q4 and the full fiscal year on Thursday. As expected, they were very good. Why shouldn't they be? The country is in love with video games, and systems by Sony (NYSE: SNE), Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT), and Nintendo (OTC: NTDOY) are keeping a lot of people from all age groups occupied. Including myself. I just recently completed Resident Evil 5 for the PlayStation 3.

Continue reading GameStop issues a good report, but stock sells off -- buy it?

Nintendo and the casual gamer still rule

Okay, video-game sales stats are out for the month of January. Please tell me there are some exciting changes in the ranking in terms of which gaming console dominated the charts in the U.S. Please tell me that it wasn't the Nintendo (OTC: NTDOY) Wii -- that would be too boring. Please . . .

Ah, forget about it! There's no suspense to this. We all know that the Wii is number-one yet again. In January, the console moved just under 680,000 units through retail shelves. Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) sold over 300,000 Xbox 360 systems, and Sony (NYSE: SNE), once again, came in third place, convincing a little more than 200,000 gamers to take a chance on its more expensive hardware. Believe it or not, it isn't just price that is sending people to the Wii. If it were just price, then the Xbox 360 without the hard drive would be in first place. No, the Wii is turning into one huge entertainment icon.

Continue reading Nintendo and the casual gamer still rule

Microsoft beats Sony on Black Friday (real winner: Activision Blizzard)

Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) is in mortal competition with Sony (NYSE: SNE). The Xbox 360 wants to destroy the PlayStation 3. Of course, both would like to take out the Nintendo (OTC: NTDOY) Wii, but that's a pipe dream at this point. Microsoft mainly wants to claim victory over Sony because the systems of those two companies are more comparable to each other than they are to the Wii. And it looks like the most recent Black Friday may have been a win for Microsoft.

According to this source, the Xbox 360 outsold the PlayStation 3 by a margin of three-to-one. Also, Microsoft increased its console sales on Black Friday by 25% on a year-over-year basis. This data comes from Microsoft itself. Assuming it is close to accurate, Sony continues to find itself in a terrible position. Really, this current console cycle has been difficult for the PlayStation franchise. But while Microsoft won bragging rights, I can't help but wonder if the real winner from this increase in Xbox 360's installed user base is actually Activision Blizzard (NASDAQ: ATVI). It's currently my favorite publisher, and I own it in my portfolio. And given that the article I cited mentions the fact that the Xbox 360 enjoys a healthy game attach rate (the game attach rate is an indicator of how many software titles are purchased per console for a particular system), I figure that a lot of the new Xbox 360 owners will be attaching titles such as Call of Duty and Guitar Hero to their systems. These two brands play very well on the powerful console, and they are must-own games for a lot of users.

Admittedly, I'm sure other publishers will benefit from all the new Xbox 360 owners. Electronic Arts (NASDAQ: ERTS), THQ (NASDAQ: THQI), and Take-Two Interactive (NASDAQ: TTWO) are all obviously happy over Microsoft's Black Friday performance. But I believe Activision Blizzard to be the best positioned of the group. Its portfolio should rock over the holidays, and I think the company will take full advantage of all the console sales from now until the new year.

Disclosure: I own Activision Blizzard; positions can change at any time.

Not much fun for GameStop in Q3

GameStop (NYSE: GME) didn't have a great third quarter. Total sales increased by slightly higher than 5%. On a GAAP basis, earnings dropped three pennies to $0.28 per share. If you exclude items such as debt extinguishment and foreign currency effects, then adjusted earnings per share on a diluted basis increased 19% to $0.38.

The bottom line may have increased by double digits by GameStop's calculation, but there are a couple reasons not to be too impressed by the performance. First, management missed the analyst's call by three pennies (this particular source is using $0.34 as an adjusted number, and comparing it to the expectation of $0.37). Second, and of higher importance to me, same-store sales decreased 1.8% during the quarter.

Now, it is true that the video-game retailer was cycling off a dramatic 46.3% increase in comps in the year-ago period, an expansion that was driven by Microsoft's (NASDAQ: MSFT) incredible Halo 3 phenomenon. I realize it was a difficult comparison. But there's no way that an investor can't be disappointed by that figure. The difference between positive 46.3% and negative 1.8% is rather sizable; I think management should have tried a little harder to deliver a number on the positive side of things at the very least.

Continue reading Not much fun for GameStop in Q3

Video game sales rocket in October -- I still like Activision Blizzard

The month of October was good to the Nintendo (OTC BB: NTDOY) Wii console. Actually, every month seems to be good to the Wii console. According to the latest sales figures, the Wii sold over 800,000 units during the Halloween season. Nothing scary about that.

Of course, Sony (NYSE: SNE) probably was a little spooked. The company's PlayStation 3 system came in a distant third to the Wii. Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) probably felt all right. The Xbox 360 came in second place, fueled by a recent price cut. Believe it or not, you can actually get a video game system for less money than it costs to acquire a Wii. The Xbox 360 version without a hard drive goes for $199. Still, people are willing to pay a premium for casual gaming.

After I got through checking out the hardware sales, I wanted to see how software had performed last month over at Gamespot. I have to admit, I was pretty shocked to learn of the "conspicuously absent" Guitar Hero World Tour game. That bugged me because one of the prime reasons I own shares of Activision Blizzard (NASDAQ: ATVI) is the Guitar Hero franchise. However, one thing to keep in mind is that the title still has time to chart. It was released the last week of October, so perhaps the November rankings will be kind to it. Also, the new Call of Duty war adventure hit the street this week. Anecdotally, I know there's a lot of interest in that game.

Continue reading Video game sales rocket in October -- I still like Activision Blizzard

Booksellers hope people read even during a recession (BKS, AMZN, BGP)

So, how will booksellers such as Barnes & Noble (NYSE: BKS), Borders Group (NYSE: BGP), and Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN) fare during the holiday season? It's an interesting question, one which is examined in an article at The New York Times. The piece talks about how the current recession seems to be affecting consumers and their desire to buy books. At the beginning of the article, two shoppers are browsing in a bookstore -- one buys, the other doesn't. Both have been affected by the bad economy. What are we to make of this?

I'll give you my take on things. Books, unfortunately, are simply not so glamorous these days. And I do think that booksellers are going to have a hard time this holiday season. With all the competition from video games and other media, the printed page just isn't that exciting to a lot of consumers. I don't think that books will be a top priority as the wallet continues to get squeezed and while job security remains an issue. Our attention spans have been cut so short these days, and they're only getting shorter. In an era of MTV quick-edits and PowerPoint presentations, 100,000-word diversions don't feel so diverting anymore.

Books are probably even less exciting to young people. Seriously, how many kids have books on their Christmas lists this year? They may want the latest Blu-ray cartoon from Disney (NYSE: DIS), or the latest Call of Duty game from Activision Blizzard (NASDAQ: ATVI), but I'm not so sure they want the latest Stephen King novel (as for me, I picked up King's latest short-story collection Just After Sunset at my local Barnes & Noble). Many kids have been introduced to the joys of reading through the Harry Potter series, but I don't think Potter will be working his magic this season. If parents do cut back this year on presents, I figure they're going to err on the side of making sure that all the non-book gifts are acquired.

Is there anything the booksellers can do about this?

Continue reading Booksellers hope people read even during a recession (BKS, AMZN, BGP)

Activision Blizzard beats in Q3 -- time to buy

Activision Blizzard (NASDAQ: ATVI), which competes with Electronic Arts (NASDAQ: ERTS) and THQ (NASDAQ: THQI), did all right in the third quarter. The publisher reported adjusted earnings per share of $0.07. That was two cents better than what analysts were counting on. As a shareholder of the company, I was pleased to see that. I was also pleased that a $1 billion stock buyback was announced.

However, I wasn't so pleased by the cautious tone of CEO Bobby Kotick. You can tell he thinks the recession may put a damper on all the rockin' fun that Activision Blizzard is having with its Guitar Hero franchise. Indeed, the market is pricing in the risk of owning Activision Blizzard shares these days.

Before, I was used to what seemed like a constant capital appreciation of my position. Now, that feeling is gone, as the stock has been struggling. The stock, in fact, was near a 52-week low at the close of trading on Wednesday. That doesn't feel right, does it? Activision Blizzard should still sell a lot of software for the Sony (NYSE: SNE) PlayStation 3, the Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) Xbox 360, and the Nintendo (OTC: NTDOY) Wii platforms. Not only is the new Guitar Hero making waves, but a fresh version of Call of Duty is forthcoming.

Continue reading Activision Blizzard beats in Q3 -- time to buy

GameStop delivers incredible growth, but stock just won't react

Investors have to find this frustrating. I know I hate it when this happens to one of my stocks. GameStop Corp. (NYSE: GME) issued its Q2 numbers today. The numbers were a thing of beauty for the most part. Yet, the stock goes nowhere. And yes, I know this is a bad market day, but still, I thought a little pop was in order. As it is, shares are down about 1% as I write.

Sales increased almost 35% to $1.8 billion. The bottom line saw an increase of well over 100%, coming in at $0.34 per diluted share. According to this article, expectations were for $0.28 per share. So, do you see where I'm coming from? Expectations were beat, and growth was stellar... come on, investors, give the stock a bid! Granted, the article mentioned something I noticed as well: the gross margin declined. Okay, it declined. But same-store sales simply rocketed like a spacecraft at a growth rate of 20% during Q2. That has to be worth something ahead of the holiday-selling season. Games from Electronic Arts Inc. (NASDAQ: ERTS), Activision Blizzard, Inc. (NASDAQ: ATVI), and Nintendo Co., Ltd. (ADR) (OTC: NTDOY) powered the quarter. And guess what? They're going to power the next two quarters, too. We have new iterations of Guitar Hero, Call of Duty, and Rock Band to look forward to. Oh, and Lego Batman. Seriously, don't discount that latter title. A lot of Sony Corporation (ADR) (NYSE: SNE) PlayStation 3s and Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ: MSFT) Xbox 360s will move off shelves, and that little system called the Wii is going to be the hottest console again this Christmas. Oh, and then there's the DS. GameStop sells 'em all.

GameStop beat its own guidance, and I think it has a great chance of continuing to beat its own guidance in the near future. That aforementioned article mentions that investors are concerned with slowing growth in the video-game universe. Okay, point well taken, I suppose. But GameStop is such a great brand in its sector, and consumers have come to know it as the go-to place for entertainment software. And as hardware continues to become cheaper, and as the installed user base rises, GameStop should benefit. The shares haven't done well this year, declining over 30% on the year-to-date timeframe as of this writing. The stock is much closer to its 52-week low than to its 52-week high. It's weak. But, I also think it's cheap. If you have a long time horizon, you may want to check GameStop out. If you're a quicker trader, you may want to wait for the stock to come back about $5 toward its 52-week low (if that happens).

Disclosure: I own Activision Blizzard; positions can change at any time.

The Wii does it again

Videogame sales data are in for the month of January. I love it when we get the monthly numbers on electronic gaming; it's always fun to see which of the big three -- Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT), Sony (NYSE: SNE), or Nintendo (OTC: NTDOY) -- are on top.

Well, as you can guess, the Nintendo Wii was number one yet again, selling 274,000 consoles last month, according to data released last week by marketing research firm NPD. The PlayStation 3 wasn't far behind with 269,000 units sold. The Xbox 360 was in the undesirable third position, moving only 230,000 of its next-generation system. Microsoft has stated that shortages of its popular product contributed to the disappointing showing. On an anecdotal basis, I know that the Xbox 360 with the hard drive, at least in my area, was indeed absent from many retail shelves as of late.

It was nice to see the PlayStation 3 have a good month. And you have to wonder how long the Wii will stay on top -- there seems to be no end to its momentum, but everyone really wants to see how it performs when there's finally enough supply of the fun devices in the marketplace (if you've never played the Wii, take my word for it -- it really is fun). Plus, what happens when all three of the new consoles move toward price parity? Will the power of the PS3 suddenly trump the innovative DNA of the Wii? Watching the evolution of the sales dynamic of all three systems will be almost as diverting as shooting up the mutant beasts in Resident Evil 4.

Continue reading The Wii does it again

Activision: Strikin' an earnings power chord

Activision (NASDAQ: ATVI) really rocked the house with its latest earnings report. Yeah, you knew I was going to fit the word "rock" in there somewhere. Can't help it -- the Guitar Hero franchise is really something, and it's helping drive incredible revenues for the software publisher.

The top line heeded the call to duty and simply exploded to the upside during the fiscal third quarter, increasing an amazing 80% to $1.48 billion. On an adjusted basis, earnings were 90 cents per share; in the previous year's quarter, Activision booked 48 cents, so this is great growth. Besides Guitar Hero 3, the company counts on the Call of Duty, Spider-Man, and Tony Hawk franchises to drive performance. Soon, it'll be leaning on online phenomenon World of Warcraft to do some damage in the marketplace, as it is merging with Vivendi Games.

Activision is taking full advantage of the new console cycle, and is really doing well with its franchises; compare this to THQ (NASDAQ: THQI), which had a terrible quarter. I continue to like the Activision story, and I continue to hold the stock. Along with Take-Two (NASDAQ: TTWO) and Electronic Arts (NASDAQ: ERTS), Activision is poised to benefit from further increases in the installed user base of the new consoles from Sony (NYSE: SNE), Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT), and Nintendo.

Disclosure: Steven Mallas owns Activision and Take-Two, and is looking at Microsoft and Nintendo as possible buys after this post.

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Last updated: November 10, 2009: 12:05 AM

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