Readers of this space know that the railroad sector is one of the preferred sectors. After decades of unconscionable neglect, U.S. railroads are experiencing a resurgence, driven by international trade, commodities transport, and the rail's cost advantage over truck transport.
Further, the revival of the rails is not exclusive to one nation in North America. Canada also is seeing a healthy growth in railroad services and Canadian Pacific (NYSE: CP) is worth a review.
Analysts see 4-6% revenue growth for CP in 2008, in Canadian dollars, with grain, fertilizer and oil sands related shipment gains offsetting declines in forest products.
Another positive: analysts also expect CP to continue to improve rail system efficiency and fluidity, will overall better asset utilization
When a major, metropolitan U.S. newspaper discovers a investment trend or a hot sector, count on increased share demand for companies in the sector. When that paper is one of the top three dailies, in this case The Washington Post, count on even more demand.
Readers of this space know that the preference here is for large cap companies, with demonstrated business models, and favorable long-term factors, that have the resources to ride-out short-term economic downturns, including recessions.
And in this category a railroad stock represent a prudent addition to a portfolio, for investors who can tolerate moderate risk.
Pick a railroad. Virtually any railroad. Odds are, you will do fine, long-term, as the nation continues to re-discover the valuable asset - - the national treasury, really - - of its railroads. (More on that latter topic, in a future blog.)
Here are the railroad plays, ranked by risk, with the top stock, BNI, being the lowest risk. A stop/loss, if one were to buy the stock, is also listed:
The revival of the rails is not exclusive to the United States. Canada is seeing a healthy growth in railroad services, and Canadian Pacific (NYSE: CP) is worth an evaluation.
Analysts see 5.7% revenue growth for CP in 2008, in Canadian dollars, with grain, fertilizer and oil sands-related shipment gains offsetting declines in forest products.
Also of note: Analysts also expect CP to continue to improve rail system efficiency and fluidity, and overall asset utilization.
The above positives, combined with CP's strong free cash flow and modest pricing power, make the company an acceptance investment for moderate-risk investors. CP's modest p/e of 13 also tips the risk/return ratio to the purchase side of the scale. The Reuters F2007/F2008 EPS consensus estimates for CP are C$4.27/C$4.78. [Note: Currency figures are in Canadian dollars].
The risks? Like other rails, Canadian Pacific is vulnerable to the economic cycle, hence a slowdown in the global and/or U.S./Canadian economies will hurt CP's results.
Stock Analysis: Canadian Pacific is a moderate-risk stock not suitable for low-risk investors. Investors with an investment horizon longer than two years should be rewarded from CP's shares. Sell / Stop Loss for the shares in this company: $44.
MOST NOTEWORTHY: Sonus Networks, Kenexa, Canadian Pacific, Applied Materials and Powerwave Tech were today's noteworthy upgrades:
Merriman upgraded Sonus Networks (NASDAQ: SONS) to Neutral from Sell following its win at BT Group (NYSE: BT) for its ASX platform, which the firm believes endorses the company's technology.
Cantor upgraded Kenexa (NASDAQ: KNXA) to Buy from Hold. The firm finds the stock being 40%+ off due to the 3Q weak earnings report as quite an overreaction and believes there is more than enough upside to advise buying shares. Management announced a 2M share buyback program.
Shares of Canadian Pacific (NYSE: CP) was upgraded to Sector Outperformer from Sector Performer at CIBC, as they believe the strong Canadian Dollar and the delay in STB approval of the DM&E acquisition is priced into shares.
Applied Materials (NASDAQ: AMAT) was upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at JP Morgan and to Buy from Hold at Citigroup; Citigroup expects capex revisions to start to reverse in mid-08 and views solar as a free option.
Piper Jaffray raised its rating on Powerwave Technologies (NASDAQ: PWAV) to Outperform from Market Perform on valuation and seasonally strong Q4 capex trends.
OTHER UPGRADES:
eBay (NASDAQ: EBAY) was upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at Piper Jaffray.
Morgan Joseph upgraded Perini (NYSE: PCR) to Buy from Hold and Shuffle Master (SHFL) to Hold from Sell.
Five insiders bought $592.7K in Orbitz Worldwide Inc's (NYSE: OWW) stock at per-share prices ranging from $9.55 to $10.10, reported Barron's Online's (subscription required) "Inside Scoop" column.
The Financial Times (subscription required) reported that General Electric Company (NYSE: GE) is believed to be considering the sale of Lake, its Japanese consumer finance subsidiary.
According to security company Symantec Corporation's (NASDAQ: SYMC) blog, there is a new Trojan called "infostealer.monstres" which is attacking online recruitment site Monster.com (NASDAQ: MNST).
MOST NOTEWORTHY: Statoil (STO), BG Group (BRG), Repsol (REP), Flow International (FLOW) and the refining sector were today's more noteworthy downgrades:
Citigroup cut Statoil (NYSE: STO), BG Group (NYSE: BRG) and Repsol SA (NYSE: REP) to Sell from Hold due to valuation and the difficult operating environment.
Matrix USA downgraded Flow International (NASDAQ: FLOW) to Strong Sell from Hold, citing weak demand from Asian customers that led to slowing sales growth.
Bernstein downgraded the refining sector to Underperform and refiners Sunoco (NYSE: SUN) and Valero Energy (NYSE: VLO) to Underperform from Market Perform...
OTHER DOWNGRADES:
Canadian Pacific (NYSE: CP) was cut to Neutral from Outperform at Credit Suisse; RBC Capital downgraded CP shares to Sector Perform from Outperform.
Goldman downgraded Taiwan Semi (NYSE: TSM) to Neutral from Buy.
MOST NOTEWORTHY: CKE Restaurants. Inc (CKR), Texas Instruments Inc (TXN), SurModics, Inc (SRDX), Nokia Corp (NOK) and DirecTV Group, Inc (DTV) were today's notable initiations:
Wedbush initiated CKE Restaurants (NYSE: CKR) with a Buy rating and $25 target.
Wachovia resumed coverage of Texas Instruments Inc (NYSE: TXN) with an Outperform rating, as the firm believes that TXN's fundamentals have bottomed and the valuation is attractive.
SurModics Inc (NASDAQ: SRDX) was initiated with an Underperform rating and $28 target at Piper Jaffray. Piper doesn't see a near-term catalyst to move shares higher given a lack of visibility regarding new licenses.
Nokia (NYSE: NOK) was initiated at Nollenberger with a Neutral rating.
HSBC started DirecTV (NYSE: DTV) with an Underweight rating and $21 target.
OTHER INITIATIONS:
Stanford initiated Armor Holdings, Inc (NYSE: AH) with a Buy rating and $80 target.
Wedbush initiated Jack in the Box Inc (NYSE: JBX) with a Hold rating and $68 target, citing the company's operational improvements and benefits from ongoing refranchising and share repurchases are fully reflected in the stock price.
Canadian Pacific Railway Ltd (NYSE: CP) was initiated with a Sector Performer rating at CIBC.
Stifel initiated Medical Properties Trust, Inc (NYSE: MPW) with a Hold rating.
Bear Stearns initiated Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd (NASDAQ: TEVA) with a Peer Perform rating.
Thomas Wiesel initiated shares of Cepheid (NASDAQ: CPHD) and Luninex Corp (NASDAQ: LMNX) with Overweight ratings.
Analyst summaries provided by TheFlyOnTheWall.com (subscription required).
MOST NOTEWORTHY: YRC Worldwide Inc (YRCW), Baidu.com, Inc (BIDU), an several e-commerce names were today's more notable initiations:
Prudential started YRC Worldwide Inc (NASDAQ: YRCW) with an Underweight rating and $41 target. The firm said recent organizational changes could be a distraction in what it expects to be a challenging first-half of 2007.
Susquehanna views Baidu.com Inc (NASDAQ: BIDU) as a strategic holding in its China portfolio and expects the company's massive brand value to drive continuous growth; shares were initiated at Susquehanna with a Positive rating.
Oppenheimer initiated three e-commerce names today:
eBay Inc (NASDAQ: EBAY) was initiated with a Buy rating and $38 target
Overstock.com, Inc (NASDAQ: OSTK) and Amazon.com, Inc (NASDAQ: AMZN) were initiated with Neutral ratings.
OTHER INITIATIONS:
In addition to YRC Worldwide, Prudential initiated several companies in the transportation sector:
Con-Way Inc (NYSE: CNW) was started with an Underweight rating and $47 target
Canadian Pacific Railway (NYSE: CP) and Norfolk Southern (NYSE: NSC) were initiated with Overweight ratings
Canadian National Railway (NYSE: CNI) was initiated with a Neutral rating and $47 target.
Jefferies initiated Forest Oil Corp (NYSE: FST) with a Buy rating and $42 target.
Citigroup believes aQuantive, Inc (NASDAQ: AQNT) will be one of the key beneficiaries of the strong secular growth in online advertising and they note that shares are trading in the lower half of its 52-week range; shares were initiated with a Buy rating and $33 target.
MOST NOTEWORTHY: The Railroad Sector and Obagi Medical (OMPI) were today's most notable initiations:
Calyon Securities initiated coverage on the following stocks, all with Neutral ratings, including Burlington Northern Santa Fe Corp (NYSE: BNI), Canadian National Railway Co (NYSE: CNI), Canadian Pacific Ltd (NYSE: CP), CSX Corp (NYSE: CSX), Norfolk Southern Corp (NYSE: NSC).and Union Pacific Corp (NYSE: UNP).
Obagi Medical (NASDAQ: OMPI) was initiated by Baird with an Outperform rating and $13 target; CIBC started the specialty pharmaceutical company with a Sector Outperformer rating and $14 target, saying the company is a pure play in the rapidly-growing aesthetics market and has expectations that the company's growth will accelerate due to the rise in physician-dispensed products.
OTHER INITIATIONS:
MasterCard Inc (NYSE: MA) was initiated with a Neutral rating at Merrill Lynch.
Xoma Ltd (NASDAQ: XOMA) was initiated with a Market Outperform rating at Rodman & Renshaw. The firm said XOMA's antibody technology licenses and manufacturing provide an important source of consistent and growing commercial revenues. Additionally, the broker said Raptiva is becoming a more meaningful contributor.