The earnings season ramps up this week. Analysts polled by Thomson Reuters foresee strong reports from such big names as Apple (AAPL), eBay (EBAY), IBM (IBM), General Electric (GE), Google (GOOG), Schlumberger (SLB) and Southwest Airlines (LUV). And fast on the heels of last week's big earnings beat from JPMorgan Chase (JPM), there will be plenty more results from the financial sector to peruse this week.

Among the financials expected to post double-digit earnings growth this week are Capital One Financial (COF), Morgan Stanley (MS), SLM Corp. (SLM) and U.S. Bancorp (USB), but the week's biggest earnings winner may be Wells Fargo (WFC).

The bailouts of late 2008 and 2009 have cost the American taxpayers $61 billion, according to the Treasury Department, but the banks aren't to blame this time. The auto manufacturer bailout, which includes Chrysler and General Motors (GRM), has cost the country more than $30 billion, with American International Group (AIG) consuming another $30 billion.

Meanwhile, Bank of America (BAC) has already made good with the government, and several banks -- such as Capital One (COF), JP Morgan Chase (JPM) and TCF Financial (TCB) -- only have to clean up situations regarding the warrants they've issued. And interestingly, the losses from the bailouts on AIG and auto manufacturers are being offset by profits from the bank bailouts, which could generate additional funds of up to $19.5 billion.

Capital One Financial (NYSE: COF - option chain) shares are rising today after the company reported a third-quarter profit of $425.6 million, or 94 cents per share, on revenue of $4.63 billion. Analysts had forecast a profit of 14 cents per share on revenue of $4.11 billion. If you think that the stock won't fall by too much in the coming months, then now could be a good time to look at a bullish hedged trade on COF.

COF opened this morning at $41.89. So far today the stock has hit a high of $42.90, but as of 12:20, COF is trading near its day low at $41.15 up $2.82 (7.4%). The chart for COF looks bullish and S&P gives the stock a positive 4 STARS (out of 5) buy ranking.

I'm reiterating my Buy rating for Capital One Financial (NYSE: COF), first recommended on May 7, 2009 at a price of $29.41. If you purchased COF then, you're up about 28%.

There's considerable risk with COF, due to the possibility of an increase in delinquencies and charge-offs if a double-dip recession occurs.

After yesterday's closing bell, Capital One Financial (NYSE: COF) reported a second-quarter loss of 65 cents per share. The quarterly loss included $461.7 million COF repaid to TARP and a $38 million dividend payment. Excluding these payments, COF saw a quarterly profit of 53 cents per share. The Street expected COF to lose 73 cents per share, so the company managed to top expectations. Nevertheless, the company noted that its results were pulled lower by credit card losses along with the repayment of the government funds.

COF managed to make money excluding items, but a loss is still a loss. While the company noted that people have been a bit more defensive in their spending, I'm guessing that this may change. Remember that unemployment is at record highs, which may lead to more people to depend on credit cards (if they have them) to pay for necessities.

Late Monday, The Bank of New York Mellon Corporation (NYSE: BK) unveiled its plan to sell $1.2 billion worth of stock in order to repay its TARP loan to the U.S. Treasury Department. The company priced 42 million shares at $28.75 a piece, a discount of 3% to the stock's close on Monday.

Even though BK passed the government's stress test with no trouble, the bank is nonetheless eager to raise funds and pay off its debt to the government. Other financial firms selling stock to repay TARP loans include Capital One Financial (NYSE: COF) and U.S. Bancorp (NYSE: USB).

However, investors seem none too pleased with BK's dilutive stock offering. The security shed 2.5% within the first 10 minutes of today's trading, extending BK's retreat from double-top resistance at the $33 level. The shares first shied away from this region in mid-April, and pulled back from the $33 neighborhood again last week.

Is there a safe bank stock in this market? Well, given the unprecedented losses on mortgages and mortgage-related assets stemming from the leveraging bubble's excesses: no there isn't. But some banks do offer opportunities for investors who can tolerate high risk, and Capital One Financial (NYSE: COF) in one of these.

In general, analysts expect the rate of growth Capital One's loan delinquencies and charge-offs to slow. Further, COF has passed the U.S. Treasury's stress test and will not be required to raise new capital.

Banking analyst Meredith Whitney is credited with questioning assets on bank balance sheets given the collapse in the real estate market.

Taking advantage of a complete lack of information, Ms. Whitney triggered a massive collapse of trust in an industry by claiming that mortgage-backed securities were worth far less than what the market had perceived.

While she may have had a basis for her claims, her assessment was more sensational than factual. Mortgage-backed securities are quite complex instruments whereby loans are sliced, diced and packaged for sale to a global market.

With maturities extending 30 years into the future, it is unreasonable and unfair to assume that paybacks, even with high default rates will amount to what is currently priced into the market.

The lack of understanding of the underlying security or loans at the individual level has created uncertainty that has yet to be resolved.

For fans of the original "Star Wars" movie, think of the weakness in terms of attacking the Death Star. That one hole was exploited (we can debate the merits of doing so later) by Ms. Whitney and those like her.

Reuters reports that Capital One Financial (NYSE: COF) reported that its profit tumbled 40% and its earnings came in 10 cents a share less than expected. Its loan losses spiked -- cutting into profits.

In particular, Capital One made $1.21 a share and analysts had expected $1.31. And its provision for losses more than doubled from the same period in 2007. According to PR Newswire, Capital One's provision increased 109% from $397 million to $829 million.

The problem? Consumers are not paying off their credit cards like they did when they were using their house as an ATM. With housing prices down 15% and three million foreclosures underway, consumers just can't afford to pay off their credit cards. And Capital One is expecting a big jump in bad debt. Its stock has fallen 4.9% after hours.

Peter Cohan is President of Peter S. Cohan & Associates. He also teaches management at Babson College and edits The Cohan Letter. He has no financial interest in the securities mentioned.

MAJOR PAPERS:

• Anheuser-Busch Companies Inc (NYSE: BUD) is going to turn down InBev's unsolicited $46.35B takeover offer and that may come before week's end, the Wall Street Journal reported. InBev is then expected to pursue a hostile takeover and Anheuser will say the offer undervalues the company. Instead, Anheuser will attempt to boost its share price by selling non-core assets such as its theme parks.
• The Wall Street Journal also reported that Belgian-Dutch financial firm Fortis NL (OTC: FORSY), in a move to increase its solvency, will attempt to raise $12.54B, and will also cancel its interim dividend and sell some assets.
• According to people familiar with the situation, the Wall Street Journal reported that JP Morgan Chase & Co (NYSE: JPM) reportedly dropped out of the bidding for General Electric Company's (NYSE: GE) $30B credit-card business. The sources said Citigroup Incorporated (NYSE: C), Bank of America Corporation (NYSE: BAC) and Capital One Financial Corporation (NYSE: COF) are not expected to submit bids, as a result of charge-offs and rising delinquencies in their own credit card portfolios.
• The Financial Times reported that the London Stock Exchange, in a joint venture with Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc (NYSE: LEH), unveiled a pan-European equities trading platform to fight rivals that are hurting its market share.

Capital One Financial (NYSE: COF) shares are trading higher after Morgan Stanley upgraded its financial sector rating to "Neutral" from "Underweight." The brokerage added in a note that it has seen improvement in a few underlying technical drivers. If you think that the stock won't fall by too much in the coming months, then now could be a good time to look at a bullish hedged trade on COF.

After hitting a one-year high of $82.25 last June, the stock hit a one-year low of $37.41 in January. COF opened this morning at $42.95. So far today the stock has hit a low of $42.89 and a high of $45.03. As of 12:20, COF is trading at $44.40, up 1.88 (4.4%). The chart for COF looks bearish and steady, while S&P gives the stock a neutral 3 STARS (out of 5) hold rating.

For a bullish hedged play on this stock, I would consider a June bull-put credit spread below the $40 range. A bull-put credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of put options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. For this particular trade, we will make a 5.3% return in just six trading days as long as COF is above $40 at June expiration. Capital One would have to fall by more than 10% before we would start to lose money. Learn more about this type of trade here.

COF hasn't been below $40 for more than a few days in the past year and has shown support around $42 recently. This trade could be risky if the stock market goes to pot in the next week, but even if that happens, this position could be protected by the support the stock might find where it bottomed in March, which is just above $40.

Brent Archer is an options analyst and writer at Investors Observer.

DISCLOSURE: Mr. Archer owns and/or controls diversified portfolios of long and short stock and option positions that may include holdings in companies he writes about. At publication time, Brent neither owns nor controls positions in COF.

Capital One Financial (NYSE: COF) is recently down $1.66 to $47.96 on unconfirmed negative chatter.

COF is speaking at Credit Suisse Group Financial Services Forum at 2:00pm today.

COF call option volume of 3,528 contracts compares to put volume of 8,528 contracts. COF March option implied volatility of 75 is above its 26-week average of 47 according to Track Data, indicating that investors are betting on a move down.

Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com

if Ben Stein is right that people who are worried about the subprime mortgage crisis are being "chicken little," then there will be plenty of clucking going on following yesterday's announcement from Capital One Financial Corp.(NYSE: COF) that it was shutting down its GreenPoint mortgage unit.

As the Wall Street Journal (subscription required) points out, Capital One bought this business as part of its $13.2 billion acquisition of GreenPoint Financial Corp. The company now is shutting 31 locations, firing 1,900 workers and taking a charge of $860 million, or $2.15 per share. To top it off, Capital One is slashing its 2007 guidance by $5 a share.

What's scary is that GreenPoint didn't even sell subprime mortgages. It sold loans to people who lacked sufficient documentation to qualify for the best rates.

When the dust clears, it will show that the real estate boom was fueled by rampant mortgage fraud. People got loans that they couldn't afford and are now paying the price. Congress needs to take action to make sure this doesn't happen again.

It's only a matter of time for the next shoe to drop.

Earnings season has claimed its most recent victim, this time it is Capital One Financial (NYSE: COF) that is feeling the pain following a weak first quarter earnings report.

The Virginia based company reported that their first quarter earnings sank 24% and were forced to lower their 2007 forecast. For the quarter the company reported earnings per share of $1.62 on $3.43 billion. Analysts had been expecting the company to show $1.98 per share with revenues of $4.1 billion.

As if the quarterly miss wasn't bad enough the company also was forced to lower their estimates for 2007 on the weakening mortgage banking business. Earlier this year the company had provided guidance of between $7.40 and $7.80 a share, but were forced to lower these estimates today. Now the company is expecting to see between $7.00 and $7.40 for the full year 2007.

Shares of Capital One are trading down 4.8% in after hours trading, falling $3.75 down to $73.59.

Michael Fowlkes has worked as a stock trader for seven years and spent the last two years working as an analyst for the online investment advisory service Investor's Observer.