All swans were thought to be white until someone happened to come across a black one. All Toyota's were thought to be well made until someone discovered, oh, say, maybe two million cars that might not be -- part of a cautionary vehicle recall.

If you are a shareholder of Toyota Motor Corp. (TM) which past GM as the largest automobile manufacturer last year -- oddly, the same year it reported its first losses (along with everyone else) -- then you now have a first hand experience of the inherent problems or uselessness in trying to predict where trouble may arise.

If you've had a baby in the U.S., you've probably done the obligatory walk to the car with a nurse, who inspects your vehicle to make sure you have, indeed, installed an infant car seat.

Consumer Reports came out with a (for parents) terrifying and (for the Evenflo Company, Inc.) damaging study today that detailed crash results from 12 widely-available infant car seats. To put it mildly? I never want to put a baby in a car again. Next time the nurse walks me out, it will be to the bus stop. Something I didn't know: infant car seats are only meant to withstand a crash at 30 mph. When Consumer Reports tested car seats at 35 or 38 mph, most seats failed, disengaging from their bases or (in four cases) flying out of them. Many seats would have "inflicted grave injuries" according to the Consumer Reports.

Newell Rubbermaid Inc. (NYSE:NWL)'s Graco Products unit has reason to crow, however; its SnugRide with EPS car seat was one of the two that passed the tests; both it and the other acceptable seat, the Baby Trend, Inc. Flex-Loc, retail for around $90.

I'm certainly glad to know that my children, having always been buckled into Graco SnugRides while in the car, were reasonably safe. But I have to ask myself: is the lack of safety of the inexpensive versions an even deadlier stake driven between the poor and the middle-class?

In yet another sign of why inventories are so high for U.S. car manufacturers, the Institute for Highway Safety said that a number of foreign cars made its list of 2007 model "safest cars." No domestic models made the list. The reason appears to be that so few American cars have electronic stability control which senses when a car is in trouble and applies the necessary braking.

Cars from Audi, Saab, Subaru, Mercedes, Honda, Volvo, and Acura made the list. Especially embarrassing for U.S. companies is the fact that Hyundai, the Korean manufacturer with only a sliver of the American market, had two vehicles that received accolades.

All Detroit needs is another well-publicized reason for people to buy competing products. Without a willingness to be first to market with better safety technology, they got one.

Douglas McIntyre is a partner at 24/7 Wall St.