Analyst Upgrades

• McAdams Wright expects Dendreon's (NASDAQ: DNDN) near-term momentum to continue but has long-term concerns that Street estimates are too high. The firm upgraded shares to Hold from Sell.
• JPMorgan upgraded Ameristar Casinos (NASDAQ: ASCA) to Overweight from Neutral to reflect valuation, potential catalysts from Colorado's easing gaming regulations, and the company's strong free cash flow. The firm raised its target on shares to $24 from $20.
• Citigroup upgraded Valspar (NYSE: VAL) to Hold from Sell after channel checks indicated paint demand is shifting to big-box retailers, the company's primary sales channel. The firm raised its target on shares to $22 from $19.
• Vulcan Materials (NYSE: VMC) was upgraded to Buy from Neutral at UBS.
• Altera (NASDAQ: ALTR) was raised to Outperform from Sector Perform at RBC Capital.
• Spectra Energy (NYSE: SEP) was upgraded to Neutral from Sell at Goldman.

Here are some highlights from this past week's earnings coverage from BloggingStocks:

• Adobe Systems Inc. (NASDAQ: ADBE) Q2 earnings were in line with expectations but sales beat.
• Best Buy Inc. (NYSE: BBY) beat earnings estimates for Q1, but on horrible metrics, sending shares lower.
• Carnival Corp. (NYSE: CCL) lower Q2 earnings beat expectations and previous guidance, boosting shares.
• CarMax Inc. (NYSE: KMX) Q1 profit and sales dropped, but still beat expectations, sending shares higher.
• Discover Financial Services (NYSE: DFS) posted a smaller-than-expected Q2 net loss and shares rose.

CarMax (NYSE: KMX), an expert in used automobiles and a colleague of AutoNation (NYSE: AN), is up today nearly 14% in early-afternoon trading on spectacular volume. What's driving (pun intended!) the buying action? You guessed it...earnings. Revenues for the first quarter decreased 17%. Adjusting for items, CarMax earned $0.22 per share, and, according to my colleague Melly Alazraki, that figure simply annihilated earnings projections developed by the analysts.

Well, well, well...what to do now, right? CarMax is an interesting company in an interesting time. It sells used cars during a period when new cars aren't selling too well. We all know about the problems at Ford (NYSE: F) and General Motors (OTC: GMGMQ). But that isn't reason enough to put money down on this stock. Especially not after a rally like we're seeing today.

CarMax (NYSE: KMX) closed at $13.06. KMX is scheduled to announce Q1 EPS on June 19. KMX June 12.5 straddle is priced at $1.35, July is at $2.15. KMX July and October option implied volatility of 66 is below its 26-week average 75, according to Track Data, suggesting decreasing price movement after EPS.

Taiwan Semiconductor (NYSE: TSM) closed at $9.56. The NY Times reported on June 14 that TSM was planning on entering the Solar or LED market and would decide in the next few months. TSM July option implied volatility is at 47, October is at 44; below its 26-week average of 58 according to Track Data, suggesting decreasing price movement.

Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com

Analyst upgrades:

• Keefe Bruyette upgraded American Capital (NASDAQ: AGNC) to Outperform from Market Perform on expectations the company's book value and earnings are trending higher. The firm raised its target price to $22.
• Jefferies upgraded Spartan Stores (NASDAQ: SPTN) to Buy from Hold as it believes the company's EPS and sales momentum will return with the Michigan economy likely bottoming out. Despite upgrading, the firm lowered its target price to $18 from $24.
• Morgan Stanley upgraded U.S. Steel (X) to Overweight from Equal Weight due to its favorable product mix and leverage to improving operating rates.
• CSX Corp. (NYSE: CSX) was upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Goldman.
• Mueller Water (NYSE: MWA) was raised to Perform from Underperform at Oppenheimer.
• Marvell Technology (NASDAQ: MRVL) was upgraded to Outperform from Underperform at JMP Securities.

Here are some highlights from this past week's earnings coverage from BloggingStocks:

• American Electric Power Co. Inc. (NYSE: AEP) lowered its earnings forecast for fiscal 2009.
• Apollo Group Inc. (NASDAQ: APOL) reported better-than-expected Q2 earnings and strong revenue growth.
• Borders Group Inc. (NYSE: BGP) reported better-than-expected Q4 earnings despite a decline in sales.
• CarMax Inc. (NYSE: KMX) soaring earnings beat Q4 expectations despite a decline in revenue.
• Colgate-Palmolive Co. (NYSE: CL) was downgraded on risk to its earnings from currency issues.

Okay, maybe I'm too bearish, but I'm not sure I could possibly buy stock in CarMax (NYSE: KMX). The used-car dealer, a colleague of AutoNation (NYSE: AN), reported some good profit growth on Thursday, but I just don't like the guidance (or lack thereof) and the sales figures.

Most of all, though, I think buying CarMax now might be violating the buy-low-sell-high principle. Who knows, maybe I should just join the momentum party. The stock is up over 60% over the year-to-date period as of Thursday. See the dilemma a potential buyer would be in?

This post is part of AOL Money & Finance's Best & Worst in Money 2008 feature.

There have been big hopes for all the nominees in this category at one time or another, but they've also suffered from questionable management moves of various sorts. So what's to root for in any of these companies?

Circuit City was founded in 1949; back then it was known as Wards Company. The big-box format and Circuit City name came as the result of a series of retail experiments, and became official in 1984. The company was listed on the New York Stock Exchange in the same year. In 1991, the company established a bank to operate its private-label credit card, and later offered a co-branded Visa. Big-box used car retailer CarMax (NYSE: KMX) was also owned by Circuit City at one point. In 2005, the company's board rejected a buyout offer; the company was worth a reported $1 billion then. The next year, Philip J. Schoonover became chairman, and ... well, the rest is history. Circuit City is now in Chapter 11.

Citigroup (NYSE: C) was formed in 1998 from one of the largest mergers in history: banking giant Citicorp and financial conglomerate Travelers Group. The company holds over 200 million customer accounts in more than 100 countries, and includes the investment services brands Smith Barney and Primerica. The company owns prominent, renowned buildings in Manhattan and Chicago, and also won naming rights to the new ball park of the New York Mets. But it was the subprime mortgage crisis that was Citigroup's undoing, resulting in the need for the recent federal bailout.

This is the second in a four part series which I hope gives buyers, sellers, shareholders and dare I say, management, a platform for discussion.

Now that I have unloaded Skype from eBay (NASDAQ: EBAY) in Tuesday's post (Serious Money: eBay should auction off Skype), it's time to move on to an asset that is not losing money, eBay Motors, but may be of more value to one of its competitors like Carmax (NYSE: KMX) or AutoNation (NYSE: AN).

It might also find a home with Amazon.com (NASDAQ: AMZN), its closest competitor in non-automotive categories. There is also the possibility that any number of auto-parts companies like AutoZone Inc (NYSE: AZO) or even the online car referral site Autobytel Inc. (NASDAQ: ABTL) would find eBay Motors a very compelling addition.

The Big Three American automakers might want to compete for this great asset. Since General Motors (NYSE: GM), Ford Motors (NYSE: F) and Chrysler are having difficulty selling new cars, expanding used car sales would be enticing. The problem is they are basically broke and holding on to a thread for dear life. That is not the case for Honda (NYSE: HMC) and Toyota Motor Corp. (NYSE: TM). Perhaps eBay Motors might find a place in their long term plans.

Earnings reports continue to dribble in as the quarter winds down. Much of the attention this week will be on homebuilders KB Home (NYSE: KBH) and Lennar Corp. (NYSE: LEN) as investors look for any sign that the housing sector has bottomed (home sales numbers are also due out this week; see below). Analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial anticipate that both companies will report that they narrowed their losses in the most recent quarter.

KB Home's expected $1.25 per share loss, on revenue of $725.5 million, compares to the previous quarter loss of $3.30 and to a year-ago loss of $6.19. However, KB Home's losses in the past few quarters have been deeper than expected. The Los Angeles-based homebuilder's long-range earnings growth forecast is 10.5%, less than the S&P 500. Analysts continue to recommend holding KB Home, and have for at least 120 days. Shares, however, reached a new 52-week high of $31.69 on Friday, and they are up 10.5% year to date.

Lennar is expected to post a loss of 52 cents per share, on revenue of $1.1 billion. That compares to the previous quarter's per-share loss of 76 cents and to a year-ago loss of $3.25. While Lennar also has tended in the past few quarters to miss expectations, the Miami-based company managed a positive surprise in the first quarter of 2008. Lennar's long-range earnings growth forecast is 10.3%, about the same as KB Home's. Analysts also recommend holding Lennar. Friday, shares of Lennar also reached a 52-week high, $27.75, but they are down 6.4% year to date.

Here are some highlights from this past week's earnings coverage from BloggingStocks:

• CarMax Inc. (NYSE: KMX) Q1 profits tumbled despite its aggressive expansion program.
• Chiquita Brands International Inc. (NYSE: CQB) warned it would miss earnings due to cost hikes.
• Circuit City Stores Inc. (NYSE: CC) Q1 loss widened as same-store sales dwindled.
• Commercial Metals Co. (NYSE: CMC) Q3 profits declined despite strong demand, but beat estimates.
• Coventry Healthcare Inc. (NYSE: CVH) lowered its Q2 and full-year outlooks after a disappointing April.
• FedEx Corp. (NYSE: FDX) missed estimates on higher fuel prices and offered lackluster guidance.
• Ford Motor Co. (NYSE: F) warned that 2008 full-year results would be worse than those of 2007.
• General Electric Co. (NYSE: GE) was downgraded by JP Morgan because of risk to earnings.
• J.M. Smucker Co. (NYSE: SJM) missed Q4 earnings expectations despite acquisitions-based growth.
• La-Z-Boy Inc. (NYSE: LZB) said it swung to a Q4 loss due to diminishing retail sales.
• Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. (NYSE: LEH) CEO expressed his disappointment in the Q2 results.
• Merrill Lynch & Co. (NYSE: MER) profit warnings and write-downs hit the rumor mill.
• Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS) beat low expectations despite a hefty decline in Q2 profits (see transcript).
• Pier 1 Imports Inc. (NYSE: PIR) narrowed its Q1 loss but still fell short of expectations.
• Winnebago Industries Inc. (NYSE: WGO) posted dismal Q3 results but still beat low expectations.

More earnings highlights from this week: Goldman Sachs, Best Buy, General Mills, Carnival and others

As one quarter rolls over into the next, here are some highlights from this past week's earnings coverage from BloggingStocks:

• Best Buy Inc. (NYSE: BBY) beat fourth-quarter expectations and offered a positive outlook for fiscal 2009.
• CarMax Inc. (NYSE: KMX) beat Wall Street earnings estimates for the fourth quarter.
• Citi Trends Inc. (NASDAQ: CTRN) beat fourth-quarter estimates and offered a rosy outlook for fiscal 2009.
• Constellation Brands Inc. (NYSE: STZ) swung to a fourth-quarter loss but beat estimates.
• Family Dollar Stores (NYSE: FDO) beat second-quarter estimates but slashed its full-year outlook.
• Immucor Inc. (NASDAQ: BLUD) beat third-quarter expectations and offered a positive full-year outlook.
• Monsanto Co. (NYSE: MON) beat second-quarter expectations but the full-year outlook disappointed.
• Mosaic Co. (NYSE: MOS) third-quarter earnings surged on strong demand and higher crop prices.
• Paychex Inc. (NASDAQ: PAYX) results on path to continue an 18-year earnings/revenue growth streak.
• Red Hat Inc. (NYSE: RHT) posted solid fourth-quarter results on strength of JBoss and other offerings.
• Research in Motion Ltd. (NASDAQ: RIMM) fourth-quarter earnings and revenue more than doubled.
• Ruby Tuesday Inc. (NYSE: RT) third-quarter earnings beat low expectations; full-year outlook is bleak.
• Scholastic Corp. (NASDAQ: SCHL) announced disappointing third-quarter results post-Harry Potter.
• UBS (NYSE: UBS) writes off $19 million for the first quarter and shows chairman the door.

Also, prospects look grim for some newspapers. The financial crisis in the U.S. prompted the IMF to cut its global growth forecast.

Upcoming results to watch for include Alcoa (NYSE: AA), Circuit City Stores (NYSE: CC), Bed Bath & Beyond (NASDAQ: BBBY), and General Electric (NYSE: GE).

Visit AOL Money & Finance for more earnings coverage.

CarMax Inc. (NYSE: KMX) shares are trading higher this morning after the company reported a fourth-quarter profit of $21.8 million, or 10 cents per share. Excluding one-time charges, KMX earned 20 cents per share, beating analysts' predictions of 16 cents per share. If you think that the company won't fall by too much in the coming months, then now could be a good time to look at a bullish hedged trade on KMX.

After hitting a one-year high of $27.42 in July, the stock hit a one-year low of $15.81 in January. KMX opened this morning at $19.09. So far today the stock has hit a low of $19.05 and a high of $20.70. As of 10:30, KMX is trading at $20.22, up $0.63 (3.2%). The chart for KMX looks bullish and steady.

For a bullish hedged play on this stock, I would consider a May bull-put credit spread below the $15 range. A bull-put credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of put options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. For this particular trade, we will make a 4.2% return in just 7 weeks as long as KMX is above $15 at May expiration. KMX would have to fall by more than 28% before we would start to lose money. Learn more about this type of trade here.

The Wall Street Journal headline says it all: "Lax Lending Standards Could End Up Fueling Sudden Acceleration in Auto-Loan Delinquencies".

It makes perfect sense and could even be worse than the subprime home lending crisis in terms of its impact on the industry. Because taking out a car loan is pretty rarely a savvy financial move -- and people tend to use them to buy cars they really can't afford -- the industry may be especially vulnerable to an economic slowdown. Irresponsible borrowers are more likely to take out car loans than home loans, and also more likely to walk away from them. And there isn't going to be any federal bailout to help fast food workers keep their Escalades.

Analysts report that delinquencies in car loans rose sharply in late 2007. Consequently, it's important to look at the possible exposure any automotive-related company you invest in has to credit problems. Some companies do their own financing, others don't. A quick look at the risk factors disclosed in the 10-Ks filed with the SEC may provide some clues.

As the holidays loom, not to mention the end of the quarter, here are some highlights of this past week's earnings coverage from BloggingStocks:

• Adobe Systems Inc. (NASDAQ: ADBE) posted solid Q4 results, but left its guidance unchanged.
• Bear Stearns Cos. (NYSE: BSC) swung to a loss, another victim of the subprime mortgage mess.
• Best Buy Inc. (NYSE: BBY) beat estimates in part on sales of the Nintendo Wii and flat-panel TVs.
• CarMax Inc.'s (NYSE: KMX) net earnings declined, and the company lowered its guidance.
• Circuit City Stores (NYSE: CC) posted another disappointing quarter on "transformation" woes.
• Darden Restaurants Inc.'s (NYSE: DRI) Q2 profits fell, leading the share price to a one-year low.
• FedEx Corp. (NYSE: FDX) beat low expectations, boosted in part by international growth.
• Goldman Sachs Group (NYSE: GS) beat estimates, but not enough to impress investors.
• Herman Miller Inc. (NASDAQ: MLHR) beat estimates despite restructuring and the soft economy.
• Hovnanian Enterprises Inc.'s (NYSE: HOV) dismal results had wide-ranging effects.
• Jabil Circuit Inc. (NYSE: JBL) posted a solid quarter but lowered its outlook due to coming restructuring.
• Martek Biosciences Corp. (NASDAQ: MATK) beat expectations and raised its guidance.
• Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS) posted worse-than-expected quarter and full-year results.
• Oracle Corp. (NASDAQ: ORCL) beat expectations on the strength of software upgrades.
• Palm Inc. (NASDAQ: PALM), reported a Q2 loss and lowered its guidance for the current quarter.
• Red Hat Inc.'s (NYSE: RHT) earnings were in line with expectations, but it raised its outlook.
• Research in Motion Ltd. (NASDAQ: RIMM) posted a solid quarter and raised its guidance.
• Take Two Interactive (NASDAQ: TTWO) warned of a higher-than-expected loss for the first quarter.
• TD Ameritrade Holding Corp. (NASDAQ: AMTD) raised its outlook for first quarter earnings.
• Walgreen Co. (NYSE: WAG) posted a solid quarter on strong sales and cost controls.