A frequent question voiced in dinner party circles in this neck of the woods (the metropolitan New York City area) is, 'Is now a good time to consider buying or investing in a home?'

Well, the latest S&P Case Shiller home price index suggests that home prices are likely to remaining sluggish -- selected, niche market gains, with flattish prices in most other markets -- through at least mid-2011. Hence, from a home price standpoint, the bias in tipped toward waiting a quarter or two, if you do not have to purchase a home.

According to the Wall Street Journal, the Conference Board reported that consumer confidence rose in November to 54.1, from 49.9 in October. Those people expecting conditions to get better rose to 16.7% from 15.8%. Those expecting conditions to worsen fell to 12.1% from 14.4%. The same ratios were found for job expectations.

On the other hand, the Case-Shiller composite index of home prices fell 1.5% in the third quarter from a year ago. The index showed an even further drop of 2% in the third quarter when compared to the previous quarter.

According to Standard & Poor's (S&P) Case-Shiller home price index, home prices are falling faster in the nation's largest cities.

The index dropped 0.6% in September compared to August (some are reporting 0.7%), with 18 of the cities recording monthly price declines. The largest drop was reported in Cleveland, Ohio, which saw prices drop 3% compared to a month earlier. The only two cities where prices increased were Washington DC (thanks mainly to government spending) and Las Vegas (which has been battered in recent reports).

The most common question I get from friends, family, business associates and, well, everyone is -- Do you expect a double-dip recession? My answer is an unequivocal "No!"

This does not mean that I think we are going to experience a dramatic improvement in the economy. We are not. Many of my colleagues seem to oppose my view, so it is not without some trepidation that I take this stand. However, I see the glass half full. My view is that others are overly influenced by "group-think" and the calls of doom.

I do think that we are currently adrift in uncharted waters and we may have a faulty rudder, too. The biggest fear I have is that everyone jabbering about another deep recession may actually cause one.

The following supports why I feel, from what we know, that we are not destined for a double-dip recession:

The DJIA has not moved much since mid-month and today was no exception with all three major indexes close to flat.

The Conference Board said that its Consumer Confidence Index rose to 52.9 for December, up from up from 50.6 in November. Both numbers are extremely low compared to a reading of closer to 90 in an expanding economy. The S&P/Case-Shiller index of home price rose a tiny .4% from September to October, but the most recent figure for the housing market was still down 7.3% from last year. Housing prices may be about to find a bottom, but, if so, the case for it is still shaky.

The unofficial closing bell numbers:

Dow 10,545.41 -1.67 (-0.02%)
S&P 500 1,126.19 -1.59 (-0.14%)
Nasdaq 2,288.40 -2.68 (-0.12%)

Once again, there's been little change in the slump that's plagued the U.S. housing sector and economy for more than two years.

Home prices in the United States in 20 cities declined at the fastest pace ever in the past year, weighed down by foreclosures, and bank efforts to unload that housing.

Home prices in a 20-city sample plunged a record 18.5% in December 2008, on a year-over-year basis in, according to the S&P / Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price survey. The index has fallen every month since January 2007. Home prices fell 18.2% in November, 18% in October, 17.4% in September, and 16.6% in August, each on a year-over-year basis.

Home prices continued their downward spiral in the fourth quarter, posting a record drop in values.

One of the most widely watched indexes for home values is the Standard & Poor's/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index and, according to data released today, the index dropped by an amazing 18.2% during the fourth quarter when compared with the same period in 2007. This marks the largest quarterly drop in the 21 years that the index has been tracking home prices.

It is a bit odd that when both consumer confidence and housing prices hit levels of virtual collapse the market does little other than move up.

The Conference Board said that its consumer confidence index dropped to 38, an all-time low. The Case-Shiller price index published today by Standard & Poor's showed that housing values in major metro areas dropped 18% in October compared to the same month last year.

The only plausible explanation for the market's indifference is the idea that all the bad news is already priced into equities. If so, trading may turn ugly early next year when stockholders find out this bad news is only the beginning.

The plunge in U.S. home values continues. Home prices in the United States in 20 cities declined at the fastest pace ever, as foreclosures increased and banks sought to unload homes by selling at cut-rate prices.

Home prices in a 20-city sample plunged a record 17.4% in September, on a year-over-year basis in, according to the S&P / Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price survey (pdf). The index has fallen every month since January 2007. Home prices fell 16.6% in August, on a year-over-year basis.

Further, prices in a 10-city survey also plummeted a record, 18.6%, on a year-over-year basis.

Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News had expected home prices in the Case-Shiller survey to decline 16.0-17.2% in September on a year-over-year basis.

The areas with the largest annual percentage declines were: Phoenix, -31-9%, Las Vegas, -31.3%, San Francisco, -29.5%, Miami, 28.4%, Los Angeles, -27.6%, and San Diego, -26.3%.

The decline in U.S. home values continues. Home prices in 20 top U.S. cities declined at the fastest pace ever, on a year-over-year basis, as foreclosures increased and banks sought to unload homes by selling at cut-rate prices.

Home prices in a 20-city sample plunged 16.6% in August, on a year-over-year basis in, according to the S&P / Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price survey (pdf). The index has fallen every month since January 2007. Further, prices in a 10-city survey plummeted a record 17.7% in August on a year-over-year basis.

Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News had expected home prices in the 20-city Case-Shiller index to decline 15.9-17.1% in August on a year-over-year basis.

Large price declines in western U.S.

The areas with the largest annual percentage declines were: Phoenix, -30-7%, Las Vegas, -30.6%, Miami, 28.1%, San Francisco, -27.3%, Los Angeles, -26.7%, San Diego, -25.8%.

Not one Top 20 metro area experienced a year-over-year increase in home values as of August and only two cities saw an increase in home prices in the month of August: Cleveland, 1.1% and Boston, 0.2%. Prices in Denver were flat in August.

The U.S. housing sector has registered another ignominious statistic. Home prices in a 20-city sample plunged 14.4% in March 2008 (PDF), on a year-over-year basis, according to the S&P / Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price survey released Tuesday. Meanwhile, prices in a 10-city survey plummeted 15.3%.

It was the largest decline in the survey's 20-year history, Case-Shiller said.

Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News had expected home prices in the Case-Shiller 20-city survey to decline 14.2% in March 2008 on a year-over-year basis.

The areas with the largest percentage declines were: Las Vegas, -25.9%; Miami, -24.6%, and Phoenix, -23.0%. Only one city in the survey -- Charlotte, N.C. -- appreciated, with prices there rising just a scant 0.8%.

Percentage price changes in other major U.S. cities were as follows: New York, -7.4%, Los Angeles, -21.7%, Chicago, -10.0%, Boston, -5.9%, San Francisco, -20.2%, Washington, D.C., -14.7%, Miami, -24.6%, and Seattle, -4.4%.

Economic Analysis: Another horrible U.S. housing sector statistic, and the sector remains in deep recession. Economists differ regarding whether the U.S. housing sector has bottomed: some see a housing recovery as early as Q4 2008, while others say it won't start until mid-2009. In either event, it's going to be a while before new home builders can resume typical building schedules and get out there and make some money -- a fact that suggests U.S. home prices are likely to continue to decline for at least the next two quarters, and probably longer.