A former senior manager at CB Richard Ellis Group (NYSE: CBG) in Southern California, now a partner at a private real estate company where I am an investor said to me this week that the stock market was just "white collar gambling".

This is a relatively common thought from Main Street and when my colleague Ron, made the comment it was hard to argue that it is not.

It certainly looks like gambling when you consider how momentum day traders place their bets, or options traders, or commodities traders -- and the past few years -- CEO's of major corporations.

I certainly was playing this theme up when I posted The great leadership disconnect: I bet the farm and you lose in September.

Earlier in the week Ron had brought up the fact that CBG stock had dropped from over $40 per share to under $4 and it seemed like it was bound to get back sometime in the foreseeable future for a huge gain. The following is the three year chart.

Ron is a smart real estate guy but he is not a stock market aficionado. He believed the risk / reward opportunity seemed like a no brain-er (not that he was going to invest). The first problem is that idea of the foreseeable future. I think the market is not foreseeing much lately. Most things seem quite cloudy indeed.

Actually I could not help but ponder the matter because, coincidentally, I was at a business breakfast the following morning where the speaker was a manager with responsibility for CBG's Asian portfolio investments. When Ron brought up the subject originally I responded that I did not follow the stock, but that it did not have to return to it's previous glory to achieve a great return on investment. Suppose it took two years to go from $4 per share to $6 or $7. Most anyone would be delighted with a 25%+ annualized return.

As it turned out, I saw my associate later that day and he pointed out that CBG had jumped 40% from the day before. WOW, some of the day gamblers, I mean traders, must have made a killing. Of course that is only if they were on the right side of the deal, and sold in time.

CBG closed Friday at $4.84, down 10% and has been volatile lately as the chart and the stocks recent moves indicate. It has a beta of just under 2 which means that it moves at twice the rate of the broader market.

Sheldon Liber is the CEO of a small private investment company and the principal for design and research at an architecture & planning firm. He writes the columns Chasing Value and Serious Money. Disclosure: I do not own any shares of CBG. I do not do any day trading.

Sunday Funnies: White collar gambling originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Sun, 16 Nov 2008 19:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

MOST NOTEWORTHY:

• Allscripts (NASDAQ: MDRX) was downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at JP Morgan following its weak Q3 results and guidance.
  
• Supertel Hospitality (NASDAQ: SPPR) was downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Baird and to Market Perform from Outperform at JMP Securities following its disappointing Q3 report.
  
• JMP securities downgraded Cephalon (NASDAQ: CEPH) to Market Outperform from Strong Buy citing uninspiring Q3 revenue growth.
  
• Friedman Billings downgraded Limelight Networks (NASDAQ: LLNW) to Market Perform from Outperform citing the tough pricing environment, competition, and upcoming IPO lockup expiration on 12/5.
  
• The firm also downgraded shares of Financial Federal (NYSE: FIF) to Underperform from Market Perform, as they expect the company to be impacted substantially from the slowing economy.

• JP Morgan removed Jones Lang LaSalle (NYSE: JLL) and CB Richard Ellis (NYSE: CBG) from its Focus List.
  
• Deutsche Bank downgraded Home Diagnostics (NASDAQ: HDIX) to Hold from Buy.
  
• Finisar (NASDAQ: FNSR) was downgraded to Hold from Buy at Jefferies.
  
• Banc of America downgraded RPM, Inc (NYSE: RPM) to Neutral from Buy.

Analyst downgrades: MDRX, SPPR, CEPH, LLNW and FIF originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Fri, 09 Nov 2007 11:10:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

MOST NOTEWORTHY:

• Oppenheimer started shares of Shutterfly Inc (NASDAQ: SFLY) with a Buy rating and $42 target. The firm believes secular growth in digital photography and increasing adoption of user generated print publishing will drive EBITDA growth of 30%-40% over the next 2-3 years.
  
• Oppenheimer also initiated Drugstore.com Inc (NASDAQ: DSCM) with a Buy rating and $5 target, as they expect growth in the company's higher margin beauty segment could drive EBITDA above consensus estimates.
  
• Baird is positive on S.Y. Bancorp Inc's (NASDAQ: SYBT) valuation, capital-rich balance sheet, and top-tier profitability and resumed coverage with an Outperform rating.
  
• The firm also started shares of Stericycle Inc (NASDAQ: SRCL) with a Neutral rating, noting it would be more aggressive on shares in the mid-$40s or if earnings catch up with the passing of time.

• UBS initiated Praxair Inc (NYSE: PX) with a Buy rating and $94 target and added shares to its Strategic Stock Selection List.
  
• Lehman initiated Infosys Technologies Ltd (NASDAQ: INFY) with an Equal Weight rating and Wipro Limited (NYSE: WIT) with an Underweight rating.
  
• William Blair reinstated coverage of the commercial real estate services sector, starting FirstService Corporation (NASDAQ: FSRV) with an Outperform rating, Jones Lang LaSalle Incorporated (NYSE: JLL) with a Market Perform rating and CB Richard Ellis Group Inc (NYSE: CBG) with a Market Perform rating.

Analyst initiations: SFLY, DSCM, SYBT and SRCL originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 10 Oct 2007 11:12:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

MOST NOTEWORTHY:

• Deutsche Bank initiated shares of McDonald's Corporation (NYSE: MCD) and Yum! Brands Inc (NYSE: YUM) with Buy ratings and a $61 target and $76 target, respectively, and shares of Panera Bread Company (NASDAQ: PNRA) and Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc (NYSE: CMG) with Hold ratings an a $54 target and $83 target, respectively.
• Wachovia initiated shares of CB Richard Ellis with an Outperform rating, as it views CBG as a compelling investment opportunity giving its leading position in the top real estate markets and breadth of services.
• Wachovia also initiated shares of Jones Lang LaSalle with an Outperform rating, as it expects JLL to benefit from international services given the increasing flow of real estate dollars across boarders and to less well developed regions of the globe.

• Citigroup initiated shares of GameStop Corp (NYSE: GME) with a Buy rating and $46 target.
• Citigroup also initiated shares of The PNC Financial Services Group Inc (NYSE: PNC) with a Buy rating and $84 target.
• Soleil initiated shares of Salesforce.com Inc (NYSE: CRM) with a Buy rating and $50 target.
• Goldman Sachs initiated shares of 3M Company (NYSE: MMM) and LM Ericsson Telephone Company (NASDAQ: ERIC) with Neutral ratings.

Analyst initiations 6-08-07: Restaurants, CBG and JLL originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Fri, 08 Jun 2007 10:36:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

MAJOR PAPERS:

• General Motors Corporation (NYSE: GM) is reportedly attempting to tighten its financial reporting procedures, the Wall Street Journal (subscription required) reported. The auto maker is under investigation by the SEC and a federal grand jury for its accounting of transactions as far back as 2000.
• The Financial Times (subscription required) reported that Dow Chemical Company (NYSE: DOW) is in talks with India's Reliance Industries for a joint venture that would enable Dow to reduce its exposure to commodity products and gain access to cheaper raw materials. Indian newspapers report that a deal could lead to a full takeover by Reliance.

• According to the Korea Economic Daily, citing an unnamed Posco ADS (NYSE: PKX) executive, a senior Arcelor Mittal Steel Company (NYSE: MT) executive expressed interest in Posco's merger plans. Posco denied the report, saying "There was no discussion on issues related to M&A when the Mittal executive met Posco CEO last month," according to the Economic Times.
• The Independent reported that Imperial Tobacco Group plc (NYSE: ITY) has made a GBP7.6B bid for the Franco-Spanish tobacco company Altadis. The private equity firm Kohlberg Kravis Roberts is also reported to have interest in acquiring Altadis. An Imperial-Altadis merger could derail a hostile bid by Kohlberg Kravis Roberts.
  
• BusinessWeek's "Inside Wall Street" section mentioned Newmont Mining Corp (NYSE: NEM), CB Richard Ellis Group Inc (NYSE: CBG) and Superior Energy Services Inc (NYSE: SPN) positively.
• Which gold producer will shine brightest? Newmont Mining "is the one," says Vincent Carrino, Chief of Brookhaven Capital Management, which has loaded up on its stock.
  
• Douglas Roberts at Channel Capital Research Institute doesn't see the Fed cutting rates soon, and hence he likes CB Richard Ellis Group.
• Superior Energy Services aims to be everything to oil-and-gas explorers in the Gulf of Mexico, and in most cases it is. "Superior can't keep up with the tremendous demand for its repair and recovery services, which will provide strong growth through the end of the decade," says Martin Sass, CEO of MDSass, which owns a 1.2% stake.

Newspaper wrap-up 3-16-07: Imperial Tobacco bids for Altadis originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Fri, 16 Mar 2007 09:34:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

MAJOR PAPERS:

• The Wall Street Journal (subscription required) had some interesting M&A speculation:
• Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS) and Goldman Sachs Group (NYSE: GS) may team up to acquire Dominion Resources (NYSE: D).
• According to the Journal's MarketBeat blog, Williams-Sonoma Inc (NYSE: WSM) denied rumors that it hired Goldman Sachs to "explore strategic alternatives."
• Macau has seen its revenue jump 22% in 2006 and could now be in the position to become the world's biggest casino market, topping the Las Vegas Strip.
• The Financial Times (subscription required) reported that News Corp (NYSE: NWS) has entered into talks to acquire Tribune Company (NYSE: TRB).

• A New York Post exclusive wrote that Vertrue Inc (NASDAQ: VTRU) has put itself up for sale and could fetch a bid of about $43 per share.
• Investor's Business Daily's "New America" column highlighted real estate company CB Richard Ellis Group Inc (NYSE: CBG), saying the company has been dominating most major markets in the world, before and after its acquisition of rival Trammell Crow for $2.2B last month.

Newspaper wrap-up 1-24-07: News Corp. in talks for Tribune originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 24 Jan 2007 09:27:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.