This week brings a small flurry of end-of-the-calendar-quarter earnings reports. And for the most part, the expectations of the analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters aren't very high. Companies expected to report declining earnings in the most recently concluded quarter include America's Car-Mart Inc. (NASDAQ: CRMT), Bed Bath & Beyond Inc. (NASDAQ: BBBY), ConAgra Foods Inc. (NYSE: CAG), Jabil Circuit Inc. (NYSE: JBL), Jackson Hewitt Tax Service Inc. (NYSE: JTX), Monsanto Co. (NYSE: MON), and Sonic Corp. (NASDAQ: SONC).

Continue reading The week in preview: End-of-quarter earnings expectations: Nike, Oracle, Walgreen ...

The week in preview: End-of-quarter earnings expectations: Nike, Oracle, Walgreen ... originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Sun, 21 Jun 2009 12:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Given last week's news that new home sales have plunged and that new home prices continue to fall, what is Wall Street expecting from homebuilders Centex Corp. (NYSE: CTX), Pulte Homes Inc. (NYSE: PHM), and DR Horton Inc. (NYSE: DHI) when they report quarterly results this week?

Analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters anticipate that Dallas-based Centex will report that it narrowed its net loss in its fiscal third quarter to $3.27 per share. In the same period of last year, the loss was $7.94 per share. Revenue in the third quarter is expected to total $895.3 million, down 53.0% from last year. For the full year, the loss is expected to reach $7.36 per share on revenue of $4.0 billion, which compares to a $21.69 per share loss on $8.3 billion in sales in 2008. Centex has posted bigger-than-expected losses in the past five quarters. So the consensus recommendation of analysts remains to hold CTX, though the long-range EPS growth forecast is 9.0%. The share price has fallen 20.0% just since the beginning of the year, and it is 70.7% lower than it was a year ago. Centex suspended its quarterly dividends back in October.

Continue reading Earnings preview: Homebuilders Centex, Pulte Homes, and DR Horton

Earnings preview: Homebuilders Centex, Pulte Homes, and DR Horton originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Sun, 01 Feb 2009 16:10:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Recent reports reveal a surprising amount of criminal activity in the mortgage business. This is particularly true in states whose names end in the letter A, such as Florida and Nevada. Two particular forms of illegal behavior are the licensing of mortgage brokers with criminal records and homebuilders' use of bribes -- or 'incentives' -- to encourage people to buy over-priced houses without disclosing them to lenders as required by law. Think I'm kidding?

DSNews reports that last week, Florida's mortgage commissioner resigned after it was revealed that he granted mortgage brokerage licenses to people with criminal records. Specifically, DSNews wrote that Don Saxon, who had been Chairman of the Office of Financial Regulation (OFR) had "allowed more than 10,000 people with criminal histories - including bank robbers, racketeers, defrauders, embezzlers, identity thieves, and tax evaders, among others - to work in Florida's mortgage lending industry between 2000 and 2007. These convicted felons had expropriated more than $85 million from lenders and homeowners during that time."

Meanwhile, things were not much more legal in Nevada. That's where the Wall Street Journal reports that the Las Vegas, NV branch of home builder Centex (NYSE: CTX) paid off the credit cards and mortgages of potential borrowers to entice people to buy homes priced from $350,000 to $550,000. The FBI is investigating allegations that Centex did not always disclose these 'incentives' to lenders as required by law.

Continue reading Crooks and mortgages

Crooks and mortgages originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 19 Aug 2008 12:52:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Are you waiting for the malaise in the housing market to finally lift? Of course you are, who isn't? I can't wait for the day when headline news suddenly turns unambiguously positive. And I can't wait for the day when the market as a whole decides to anticipate it. For now, though, we've still got sour data to contend with. According to this article, famous luxury home-builder Toll Brothers (NYSE: TOL), whose competitors include Centex (NYSE: CTX) and Lennar (NYSE: LEN), reported preliminary results for the third quarter on Wednesday that showed a big decrease in home-building revenues. They decreased 34%, coming in at roughly $796 million. Seems par for the course, all things considered.

But there are more declines. Backlog orders decreased over 50%, and net signed contracts took a dive of 35% (both of these metrics are in dollar terms). The company is also issuing write-downs that will fall somewhere between $100 million and $200 million. Depressing stats, but according to the company press release, CEO Robert I. Toll believes that there is pent-up demand lurking out there in the marketplace for homes and he used the fact that total cancellations were down during the quarter as a tool for positive spin. Plus, the home-building revenue number did, in fact, beat estimates, according to Reuters. Does this make me want to run out and buy the stock?

No. Even though the stock has been strong in the last month, and even though it was up nearly 1% at the end of the trading session on Wednesday (a pretty nice showing on an otherwise overall downer of a day), I don't think I'm ready to initiate a position in Toll Brothers. I'd have to see a significant pullback in this one before my interest becomes piqued (some better economic news wouldn't hurt, either).

Disclosure: I don't own any company mentioned; positions can change at any time.

Toll Brothers issues preliminary results -- should you stay away from the stock? originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 14 Aug 2008 08:41:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Continue reading Cramer on BloggingStocks: Horton doesn't get it

Cramer on BloggingStocks: Horton doesn't get it originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 06 Aug 2008 09:09:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Here are some highlights from this past week's earnings coverage from BloggingStocks:

• Allegiant Travel Co. (NASDAQ: ALGT) beat estimates with soaring Q1 revenues, bucking the airline trend.
• Apache Corp. (NYSE: APA) Q1 profits doubled but fell short of expectations.
• Avon Products Inc. (NYSE: AVP) posted solid Q1 results despite negative operational cash flow.
• Centex Corp. (NYSE: CTX) posted a Q4 loss well below analyst estimates.
• Cigna Corp. (NYSE: CI) profits plunged in the first quarter on litigation charges.
• Countrywide Financial Corp. (NYSE: CFC) posted another big loss, way off estimates of a small profit.
• Deutsche Bank AG (NYSE: DB) posted its first quarterly loss since 2003 on write-downs.
• Gardner Denver Inc. (NYSE: GDI) beat Q1 expectations and raised its outlook for the year.
• International Paper Co. (NYSE: IP) fell short of Wall Street's Q1 earnings estimates.
• Jacobs Engineering Group Inc. (NYSE: JEC) beat Q1 estimates and offered fully-year guidance.
• KBR Inc. (NYSE: KBR) Q1 profit more than doubled on arbitration benefit.
• MasterCard Inc. (NYSE: MA) topped analysts' expectations as Q1 profits more than doubled.
• Office Depot Inc. (NYSE: ODP) Q1 profits tumbled 55% but still beat analysts' estimates.

Continue reading Earnings highlights: Countrywide, Visa, MasterCard, KBR, Office Depot and others

Earnings highlights: Countrywide, Visa, MasterCard, KBR, Office Depot and others originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Sat, 03 May 2008 15:40:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Continue reading Centex rises despite huge EPS miss

Centex rises despite huge EPS miss originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 01 May 2008 14:35:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

After hitting a one-year high of $49.85 in May, the stock hit a one-year low of $17.77 in November. This morning, CTX opened at $25.90. So far today the stock has hit a low of $25.00 and a high of $26.09. As of 1:00, CTX is trading at $25.01, down $1.31 (-5.0%). The chart for CTX looks bullish and steady, while S&P gives the stock a neutral 3 Stars (out of 5) Hold rating.

For a bearish hedged play on this stock, I would consider a May bear-call credit spread above the $30 range. A bear-call credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of call options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. For this particular trade, we will make a 12.4% return in six weeks as long as CTX is below $30 at May expiration. Centex would have to rise by more than 20% before we would start to lose money. Learn more about this type of trade here.

Continue reading Centex (CTX) tumbles on housing data

Centex (CTX) tumbles on housing data originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 08 Apr 2008 15:32:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Continue reading Cramer on BloggingStocks: Fed needs to focus on home prices

Cramer on BloggingStocks: Fed needs to focus on home prices originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Fri, 14 Dec 2007 08:53:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

The housing index just can't rally for a minute. The thing's amazing. The stress of the system is so clearly manifested by this that I have to wonder if the Fed wants this index lower.

The fact that the Fed's speakers never mention things like this index and the homebuilders makes me wonder if this group is actually what the Fed wants to put out of business. I wonder if the Fed thinks that Pulte (NYSE: PHM) (Cramer's Take) and Horton (NYSE: DHI) (Cramer's Take) and Lennar (NYSE: LEN) (Cramer's Take) and Standard Pacific (NYSE: SPF) (Cramer's Take) and Centex (NYSE: CTX) (Cramer's Take) need to go bankrupt before the Fed can ease any more.

Many of these firms lent money recklessly. Are the Fed heads thinking these companies need to pay like the New Centurys and the NovaStars (NYSE: NFI) (Cramer's Take) did? (Are the feds, by the way, thinking that this GMAC company has to go because that was a huge provider of crummy mortgages?)

Continue reading Cramer on BloggingStocks: Belly-up builder would tip the scales

Cramer on BloggingStocks: Belly-up builder would tip the scales originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 19 Nov 2007 08:44:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Things keep getting worse and builders get more and more cautious. In fact, according to the Commerce Department's most recent survey, housing starts dropped 10% to an annual pace of 1.19 million in September from a 1.33 million rate in August. That's worse than economists expected. Briefing.com's survey showed economists estimated a more modest fall to 1.29 million.

We haven't seen a housing market this weak since 1993 and the future doesn't look any better. Housing permits were down 7% to an annual rate of 1.23 million in September from 1.32 in August. That's the lowest level for permits in 12 years.

This news follows the report that the Mortgage Bankers Association will release today at its annual convention indicating falling mortgage originations and a builder's confidence survey that was released Tuesday indicating that builder's confidence is at record low levels. The nation's builders are hit hard. The most recent to report was the nation's largest, D. R. Horton (NYSE: DHI), whose orders dropped by 39%. Last week, Moody's downgraded Lennar (NYSE: LEN), Centex (NYSE: CTX) and Pulte (NYSE: PHM) homes to junk bond status.

Housing starts fall to lowest level in 14 years originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 17 Oct 2007 09:49:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Centex (NYSE: CTX) of Dallas joins the growing list of home builders that will be taking charges. The Wall Street Journal reported this morning that Centex plans to take $1 billion in charges [subscription required] because of the deteriorating housing market. Charges reported by the Journal include:

• $850 million impairment on its neighborhood and land inventory plus $40 million more on land held by joint ventures.
• $40 million write-off in pre-acquisition costs and option deposits
• $60 million provision for future mortgages.

These loses are on top of the $193 million in write-offs for the first fiscal quarter.

Yesterday, Moody's downgraded Centex's credit rating to junk status and said it expects to see weak conditions in the housing industry until at least 2009. Moody's also told the Journal that Centex, "has had difficulty unloading excess inventory, is facing rapidly declining home deliveries and revenue generation, and has close to a seven-year lot supply."

Centex reports its results officially on October 23. Expect bad news and falling stock prices between now and then.

Visit AOL Money & Finance for more earnings coverage

Centex (CTX) to take $1 billion in charges as housing slump takes another down originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Fri, 12 Oct 2007 10:15:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Alternative investment asset manager Fortress Investment Group's (NYSE: FIG) decision to shutter its subprime mortgage division, Nationstar Mortgage, generated only a mild reaction from traders and analysts alike. Nationstar, a leading U.S. subprime lender, has sustained substantial losses due to rising defaults and foreclosures.

Nationstar said any approved mortgage applications in its pipeline would be honored. Nationstar will also continue to service the $10 billion in subprime loans in its portfolio.

Wall Street took Fortress's subprime decision in stride: Wall Street appreciates all the candor and data it can get regarding the status of subprime loans and operations, and Fortress's announcement will help analysts compose a more-complete report on Fortress, one reason the Street did not punish FIG's shares this week. On Friday, FIG's shares closed down 26 cents to $21.32.

Moreover, Wall Street's clamor for "the more data, the better" regarding the subprime sector is not without justification. Late payments and defaults on subprime mortgages are already four times the historical U.S. average, and many analysts expect that percentage to rise in the quarters ahead: about $350 billion in subprime home loans will shift to higher interest rates, with initial rate increases boosting costs by 30% or more, according to research by Credit Suisse (NYSE: CS).

Nationstar, formerly Centex Home Equity, was bought in 2006 by Fortress, a manager of private-equity and hedge funds, for about $554 million. It had been owned by Dallas-based Centex (NYSE: CTX), the fourth-biggest U.S. homebuilder.

Fortress Investment Group (FIG) shutters its subprime operations originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Sat, 29 Sep 2007 11:40:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Options strategy: Cramer's Centex (CTX) opinion originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Fri, 24 Aug 2007 12:40:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Although they spent most of the day in the green the indexes gave up ground through most of the session to close just in the red.

The NYSE had volume of 3.6 billion shares with 1,612 shares advancing while 1,706 declined for a loss of 6.18 points to close at 9,428.86. On the NASDAQ, 2.2 billion shares traded, 1,426 advanced and 1,685 declined for a loss of -2.65 to 2,542.24.

EMC Corporation (NYSE: EMC) rose $1.33 (8%) to $19.05; ahead of it's subsidiary VMware making its debut on the NYSE tomorrow in an IPO that analysts are predicting will be big. EMC will retain 90% of the shares. This is likely the reason for the active calls as EMC Corp. (NYSE: EMC) saw heavy volume on the August 19 calls (EMCHT) with over 56,000 options trading.

Centex Corporation (NYSE: CTX) fell $2.78 (-7%) to $35.63. Lennar Corporation (NYSE: LEN) fell $2.53 (-7%) to $32.92. Brinker International (NYSE: EAT) rose $1.82 (7%) to $28.98. The Goodyear Tire & Rubber Company (NYSE: GT) rose $1.70 (6%) to $28.95.

In options there were 5.4 million puts and 5.8 million calls traded for a put/call open interest ratio of 0.92. The CBOE Volatility Index has been high closing today at 26.57. This is the fear indicator of the market. Not only is the index up, but options on the index are high with the CBOE S&P 500 Volatility Index (NASDAQ: $VIX) moving volume on the August 25 calls (VIXHE) with over 35,000 contracts.

Other stocks with active options include State Street Boston (NYSE: STT) saw heavy volume on the November 75 calls (STTKO) with over 60,000 options trading. Most of the active puts were on the indexes and the iShares Russell 2000 ETF (NYSE: IWM) had volume on the August 78 puts (IOWTZ) with over 86,000 options trading.

Kevin Kersten is an Options Analyst with InvestorsObserver.com. Disclosure note: Mr. Kersten owns and or controls a diversified portfolio of long and short positions that may include holdings in companies he writes about.

Monday Market Rap: EMC, LEN, GT, EAT, & CTX originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 13 Aug 2007 18:08:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

A step backward for the housing sector's recovery originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 20 Jun 2007 10:15:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

• Centex (NYSE: CTX) - 37%
• DR Horton (NYSE: DHI) - 40%
• KB Homes (NYSE: KBH) - 53%
• Lennar (NYSE: LEN) - 31%
• Pulte Homes (NYSE: PHM) - 36%
• Beazer (NYSE: BZH) - 57%
• Hovnanian (NYSE: HOV) - 35%
• MDC Holdings (NYSE: MDC) - 49%
• Standard Pacific (NYSE: SPF) - 50%

Housing: To go long or to go short? originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 04 Jan 2007 10:01:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

It's hard to ignore any investment actions taken by the world's richest man, or any entity associated with him for that matter, so when the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation recently announced that it had taken an interest in homebuilding companies, the news caught the attention of Bernie Schaeffer, the editor of The Option Advisor.

In particular, Bernie is intrigued by Centex (NYSE: CTX), which the Gates' disclosed as one of those homebuilders in which it had invested. And while that hat news led to a quick gain of 4% in the shares, Schaeffer remains bullish.

He explains, "Technically, the stock vaulted it back above support at its 10-week moving average. In conjunction with its 20-week counterpart, these trend lines have provided support for CTX since the middle of August. The stock has additional support at its rising 50-month moving average, which it has not closed a month below since July 2000."

Despite its strong technical position, the contrarian analyst notes that pessimism - based on put and call buying by speculators - is still prevalent on CTX. Further, he adds, nearly 10% of the stock's float is sold short, and this, he says, "creates fuel for a short-covering rally."

Continue reading Follow Bill Gates? CTX, yes. MSFT, no.

Follow Bill Gates? CTX, yes. MSFT, no. originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 28 Nov 2006 10:29:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.