OPEC members have not been in concert about when to cut production and by how much. The cartel's November meeting came and went. Nothing happened. Some members were accused of not following the September cut plan.

But, now crude is moving toward $40 and some of the producing nations are in real financial trouble. Russia, which is not a member, is also pushing cuts to bring prices back up, at least to the $60 level.

The financial pain of oil prices that are too low to make big money is about to force action by the cartel. According to Reuters, "There is an OPEC consensus on the reduction. But I can not tell you (more)," said OPEC President Chakib Khelil.

It was assumed before the November meeting that a production cut of two million barrels of oil a day would do the trick. Since then there have been reports that worldwide consumption of crude will drop for the first time since 1983. And, China is actually importing less than it has in a decade.

What happens now? It is anyone's guess, but a chop of 2.5 million to 3 million barrels a day in production would certainly not be surprising. If that happens crude could go up $20 in a flash.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com

After months of struggle, OPEC gets its act together originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Sat, 13 Dec 2008 07:23:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

For those of us who were dying for relief from record high gasoline prices this summer, the recent drop in oil prices comes as great news, but this is not the case for everyone. OPEC, which supplies the world with roughly 40% of its oil, would like to see prices rise higher again, and today gave a clear sign that larger than expected production cuts are on the horizon.

In an interview today, the President of OPEC, Chakib Khelil, stated that a consensus had been reached for cuts at the next meeting of the oil cartel. The next scheduled meeting is on December 17, and according to Khelil, the market will be surprised.

Khelil stated that the he felt the best way to get a quick boost in oil prices is to shock the market, and he felt that the upcoming production cuts would be able to do just that. While he did not indicate exactly how large the production cuts would come, he left no doubt that they will be substantial.

"The stronger the decision, the faster prices will pick up," Khelil said.

Continue reading OPEC warns of substantial cuts coming soon

OPEC warns of substantial cuts coming soon originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Sat, 06 Dec 2008 13:40:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Bullish case, bearish case

Given the link between oil's price and U.S. economic growth, BloggingStocks Tuesday asked two economists to outline the bullish and bearish cases for the world's most vital commodity.

Continue reading Will oil fall below $100 per barrel?

Will oil fall below $100 per barrel? originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 29 Jul 2008 13:57:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

The current head of OPEC, Algerian Energy Minister Chakib Khelil, seems to say the same thing once a month. The repetition does not make it more convincing, but he went back to it again this weekend.

According to the AP, his view of oil is that "the high prices do not reflect market conditions but rather other factors linked to the weakening dollar, market speculation, and the U.S. subprime mortgage market turmoil."

Recent studies indicate that there is much more at play than the dollar and traders trying to make a buck. Oil exports are falling in many countries. Last month, Indonesia said it would drop out of OPEC. It is not longer a net exporter of crude. Mexico says that some of its largest fields are aging and that their yields are down, perhaps permanently.

Even in Saudi Arabia the need for petroleum to build infrastructure and fuel cars is rising, keeping more oil inside the country.

As far as anyone can tell China, India, and the emerging markets draw as much crude now as they did when oil was below $70. Governments in many of those states are still willing to underwrite the cost of oil to help drive GDP with cheap gas and diesel.

Saying that supply and demand are not at work is a convenient way to mask greed, but it does not work.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.

More excuses from OPEC originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Sun, 01 Jun 2008 13:40:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

OPEC says no one should point the finger at it for $100 oil. The group's new president, Chakib Khelil, told Bloomberg, "There is enough oil in the market. It's the problems in Nigeria, in Pakistan, and the credit crisis caused by the U.S. subprime-mortgage market collapse that caused prices to increase.''

It is a distorted view. High prices will not cut demand.

That does not take into account the fact that the huge growth of energy use in a country like China is underwritten by the government. Thus, the dynamics of demand mean very little there. It does not take into account the fact that the use of oil for heating does not fall much if people are cold.

OPEC also believes that the hedging of oil against the dollar pushes up the price. But, the back of hedging might well be broken if OPEC announced new supply and "frightened" some of the speculation out of the market. Like shorts covering in a squeeze when the price of a stock moves sharply, many oil hedges would unravel, causing the downward correction to be magnified.

The price of oil sits in OPEC's hand more than any other single place.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.

OPEC washes it hands of high oil prices originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Sun, 06 Jan 2008 10:50:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.