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Don't trust any Dow levels before 4 p.m.

In this market, it bears repeating that a great deal can change in a short time.

That's why from an investor standpoint, the Dow's level really doesn't count until 4 p.m. ET.

Of course, traders will quickly point out that intra-day and hourly overbought/oversold indicators certainly count, and if you're in that category of market participants who trade daily with success, congrats.

But for the bulk of investors/readers a longer time horizon is relevant, and that's why it's not prudent to read too much into the Dow's level before the 4 p.m. close.

With the VIX, the Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index (NYSE: $VIX.X), the benchmark index for U.S. stock options, at record highs, the stock market is displaying near-unprecedented volatility - - or wild gyrations characteristic of periods permeated with fear, uncertainty, and announcements events that change economic forecasts, almost daily.

Typically trading between 15-30, the VIX has been above 40 for about a month, and has traded above 80! On Thursday at 11 a.m., the VIX was at 66.38, down 3.58.

And the VIX's expression in Dow terms? That's right: massive swings in the Dow -- 500-point reversal moves intra-day, 700-point up days followed by 800-point down days, other wild swings, 5% up days in a 10% down month, and of course, the old ulcer-generator -- massive selling at 3 p.m. ET.

Continue reading Don't trust any Dow levels before 4 p.m.

Symbol Lookup
IndexesChangePrice
DJIA-74.9212,454.83
NASDAQ-1.852,837.53
S&P 500-2.861,317.82

Last updated: May 26, 2012: 10:12 AM

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