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Posts with tag China

Little impact seen for Intel (INTC) from Chinese quake

INTC logoIntel (NASDAQ: INTC) shares are trading higher today in light of a BusinessWeek article that downplayed the economic impact of the recent Chinese earthquake on companies with outposts in that part of China, a list which includes Intel. Not hurting INTC today is a weak earnings outlook from Applied Materials (NASDAQ: AMAT), which is often seen as a bellweather for technology companies. If you think that the stock won't fall by too much in the coming months, then now could be a good time to look at a bullish hedged trade on INTC.

After hitting a one-year high of $27.99 in December, the stock hit a one-year low of $18.05 in January. INTC opened this morning at $23.85. So far today the stock has hit a low of $23.76 and a high of $24.29. As of 12:15, INTC is trading at $24.16, up $0.40 (1.7%). The chart for INTC looks bullish and deteriorating slightly, while S&P gives the stock a neutral 3 Stars (out of 5) hold rating.

For a bullish hedged play on this stock, I would consider a July bull-put credit spread below the $21 range. A bull-put credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of put options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. For this particular trade, we will make a 6.7% return in just two months as long as INTC is above $21 at July expiration. Intel would have to fall by more than 13% before we would start to lose money. Learn more about this type of trade here.

Continue reading Little impact seen for Intel (INTC) from Chinese quake

Wal-Mart (WMT): No dangerous toys here

Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT) does not want to be known as a place where there are products that could hurt little kids. It is bad for public relations and thus bad for business. So the world's largest retailer is going to set standards for toys that are much tougher that those of the U.S. government.

According to The Wall Street Journal, Wal-Mart does not just want the toys to be manufactured more safely. The paper writes, "The initiative also encourages suppliers to mark children's products with 'traceability information', including the factory in which the goods were made. About 80% of the toys sold in the U.S., including those marketed by U.S.-based toy makers, are manufactured in China."

Wal-Mart is a little late to the party. The threat of lead and other toxins has been causing trouble for retailers for over a year. Several of the company's competitors already have similar programs in place. And Wal-Mart sources a lot of inventory in China, so it may not want to be seen as leading the pack in a public relations war with the People's Republic.

The news also begs the question of why Wal-Mart was not inspecting the toys on its own. Of course, that would be expensive.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com and author of the Ten Stocks Under $10 newsletter.

Investors looking for broad exposure to solar getting TANned

Everyone is talking about solar. Whether you believe that solar energy will somehow displace an oil-driven economy or not (I don't), some of these stocks like First Solar (NASDAQ: FSLR) and JA Solar (NASDAQ: JASO) have seen big gains over the past few years.

The success of solar companies has not been lost on ETF firms with their constant new products hitting the market. A smaller ETF firm called Claymore Securities looks to be first to the market with a solar ETF, the Claymore/MAC Global Solar Energy Index ETF, with an aptly-named ticker, (NYSE: TAN).

Here's Claymore's website for the recently launched ETF. From the firm's website, the index defines a company engaged in solar energy as falling into two main categories:

1. Solar photovoltaic power, which involves the conversion of sunlight into electricity through the photovoltaic process; and

2. Thermal solar power, which involves using energy from the sun to heat fluids for purposes of water or space heating or to produce electricity.

Continue reading Investors looking for broad exposure to solar getting TANned

China establishes Boeing/Airbus competitor

Several leading business journals have reported that China has created its own regional jumbo jet company to compete with Boeing Co (NYSE: BA) and Airbus.

The Financial Times (subscription required) reports, "China has unveiled a state-owned aircraft manufacturer intended to eventually challenge Boeing and Airbus's control of the global market in large airliners." The Times characterizes the Commercial Aircraft Corporation of China (CACC) as "a significant step in Beijing's drive to create an advanced civil aviation manufacturing sector able to help meet the country's rapidly growing demand for regional and larger jets."

Reuters noted that, "many analysts have expressed skepticism about the commercial prospects of a large jet designed and manufactured entirely in China, given the country's limited experience in big aircraft." Not sure what analysts know, I'm skeptical just as much of them.

Continue reading China establishes Boeing/Airbus competitor

China increases bank reserves to cool inflation

China Monday ordered its banks to increase its reserve ratio for the fourth time this year, in an attempt to quell rising inflation, Bloomberg News reported.

Banks in China must now park 16.5% of deposits with the central bank, up from 16%, the Peoples Bank of China announced Monday. The change is effective May 20, 2008.

Economist David H. Wang told BloggingStocks Monday the monetary policy tightening by the central bank was the right move, "and more monetary policy tightening is on the way."

"Central banks in and outside of China are coming to the realization that slower Chinese growth will help all governments regain control of commodity prices, to a certain degree, and higher reserves for banks is part of that slowing process," Wang said. "The higher reserve rate will slow China's economy, lowering commodity demand and inflation."

China's economy grew at a 10.6% annualized pace in Q1 2008, its 10th consecutive quarter of double-digit GDP growth. Meanwhile, inflation rose at annualized rate of 8.7% in February 2008.

Wang said he expects China to increase its bank reserve rate "gradually to 18.5-19% by early 2009" if inflation does not show signs of moderating, adding that an increase in China's key, short-term lending, currently at 7.47%, also is likely. Less government action is expected regarding China's floating band-based currency, the yuan, presently trading around 7 yuan to the dollar, he said.

China unable to control inflation

More bad news for investors in China. It's not enough that markets have been pummeled over the last six months, but any sign that we may see a recovery may be short lived, as April's inflation numbers were released.


According to an AP report: "Consumer prices in April were up 8.5 percent compared with the same month last year, the National Statistics Bureau reported. That was up from March's 8.3 percent rate and just short of February's 8.7 percent, the highest inflation in 12 years. Consumer prices have jumped since mid-2007, driven by rises in food costs that hit 22.1 percent in April. "

And this is the inflation number that's reported. We can only assume, with the government in full control, that inflation may well be even higher. It's important to note that the weakest, poorest members of society are most affected by the soaring inflation. Chinese officials are worried about demonstrations similar to the ones back in the '80s and in the 90's, especially as we countdown to the Olympics. But it may just be the Olympics that solve the problem. I would expect economic growth in China to wane after the Olympics are completed, as many government works and construction projects are set to finish in time for the games.

As China experiences slower growth, it might give consumers in China some relief from soaring prices.

Aaron Katsman is the lead Portfolio Manager and Managing Director of America Israel Investment Associates, LLC. and Senior Editor of IsraelNewsletter.com. DISCLOSURE: Writer's fund has no position in any stock mentioned, as of 5/12/08.

A pleasant scenario for oil-exporting nations: Lower production, but higher revenue

As serious as the oil issue is in the United States, the west, and globally, considering its impact on economic development, circumstances could become even more challenging, in the quarters ahead, if present trends continue.

That's because, due to emerging market growth and per capita energy consumption rates in the United States - the oil -producing world "could be in a position of unprecedented pricing power," according to economist Glen Langan.

Langan says "could be" because the pricing power oil producers currently have, while significant, is not absolute. And oil-consuming nations still have time to regain some control over their oil bills. Oil Thursday reached a record high of $123.74 per barrel before closing slightly lower.

Here's the current global oil supply / demand landscape, as Langan sees it: daily global oil supply exceeds demand by the smallest of margins. It's the major reason the price of oil has been trending up for more than 5 years, but oil-consuming nations can increase that margin, via conservation, increased efficiency, and alternative sources of energy.


Continue reading A pleasant scenario for oil-exporting nations: Lower production, but higher revenue

US market hurts Toyota (TM) results

Even a global company like Toyota (NYSE:TM) cannot escape the slowdown in the US market. The Japanese auto company reported it Q4 profits dropped 27%, more than expected.

Bloomberg reports, "The slowdown in the U.S. really hit Toyota,'' said Koichi Ogawa, chief portfolio manager at Daiwa SB Investments Ltd. in Tokyo, which oversees $28 billion in assets. "The market has yet to hit bottom.'' Indeed, for most car companies, US sales fell by double digits in April. Toyota did somewhat better, but "somewhat" is not enough.

The news reflects how difficult it is for multinationals to do well when the world's largest consumer market is doing poorly. It raises the question about what the financial results from large companies in Europe and Asia will look like as the year goes on.

The Toyota earnings are a sign that the US slowdown could move to export companies in places such as China and Vietnam, which rely heavily on selling goods into the American market. The bad news from America is starting to send waves to foreign shores.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com and author of the Ten Stocks Under $10 letter.

Pre-market movers (MRK) (CHINA)

Flowserve (NYSE:FLS) is up over 10% on strong earnings.

Apogee Enterprises (NASDAQ:APOG) is up on positive Cramer comments.

CDC (NASDAQ:CHINA) is off 7% on weak earnings.

Merck (NYSE:MRK) is off over 8% on news that one of its drugs was rejected by the FDA.

Stocks may trade differently in the pre-market than they do in the regular session.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com and the author of Ten Stocks Under $10.

Chasing Value: Huaneng Power reports 80% drop in earnings -- stock up

Watching one of your largest holdings go up in value is a vision of joy. The same is not true on the way down. Huaneng Power ADS (NYSE: HNP) is indeed way down from its high of $57.50. I recommended the stock last year at $26.50 and looked brilliant until last month when it completed retracing its upward trajectory back to that level.

The company reported an 80% drop in earnings attributed to higher coal costs Tuesday. However, today the value buyers must be back in droves because the stock closed up almost 16% as one of the day's big movers. The stock closed at $30.25, up over $4 per share. The following three-year chart captures the drama.

Chart

Continue reading Chasing Value: Huaneng Power reports 80% drop in earnings -- stock up

GM to push for more China sales

General Motors (NYSE: GM) will try to increase its market share in China during the second half of the year. The overall market there is growing at a 21% rate in 2008. According to Bloomberg, "The Detroit-based automaker plans to invest $1 billion annually in China over the next three to five years."

GM will introduce a number of new models in the big Asian country, one of which will be a hybrid.

But, sales in China may not be enough to help to GM. Its market share is still dropping in a weak U.S. market. While China may not have been a competitive market a decade ago, every major auto company in the world wants a piece of the action now.

GM is up against Toyota (NYSE: TM), Volkswagen, and several other companies that already have large factories and joint-ventures with local operators. The home-grown Chinese companies do not want to be bested by their foreign rivals. In other words, GM is hoping to get much of its international growth out of the most sought-after market in the world.

Without a big win in China, GM's global problems could deepen.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.

Despite Baidu's lead, Google makes push into China

By some measures, China-based search engine Baidu (NASDAQ: BIDU) has 60% of the search engine market in that country, which now has more internet users than the U.S. Google (NASDAQ: GOOG) is a distant second.

According to Reuters, "Lee Kai-Fu, Google's president for Greater China, said in an interview that the Silicon Valley company intends to add 200 staffers in 2008 to its existing 600 employees and to keep up that level of hiring for the next three to five years."

All of the effort may not help. The Chinese may prefer to use the services of a company that was founded in their own country and where the search technology was originally based on their language. China has watched U.S. tech efforts from Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) to Hewlett-Packard (NASDAQ: HPQ) come into the country and dominate market share. The capital from those efforts makes it way back to the U.S.

Baidu is one of the few Chinese tech companies that has a huge lead on its Western competition. Many people there prefer it that way.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.

China's stock market now down 50%

Last October, the Shanghai Composite was over 6,000. It now trades at 3,095. According to The Wall Street Journal (subscription required), "The plunge has slashed the savings of millions of Chinese investors who jumped into the market as it rose six-fold in two years." The drop will also make it more difficult for companies in the world's most populated country to raise money.

While investors have been beaten up in the China market, the real question is whether the movement is any indication of what will happen in the broader economy this year. Some economists believe that stock market moves anticipate later increases or decreases in GDP and other measurements of financial health.

In China, the market may indeed portend what may happen in the balance of the year. The country's economic growth has already begun to slow. It is still robust, at about 10%, but that is married with inflation which is about 8%. For food and certain other consumers goods price increases are closer to 20%. An economy cannot survive forever on rampant inflation. At some point the central bank must increase interest rates to cool buying power.

Price increases in China would be even sharper if the government did not underwrite the costs of gasoline and diesel.

The other issue facing the Chinese economy is the it cannot be decouple from the West. A deep recession in the U.S. and Europe will hurt exports from China, and that will drive a sharp cut in its GDP. China's growth rate is almost certain to slow.

And, that will make the Shanghai Composite drop even further.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.

Gasoline prices hit new record high

Gasoline prices have continued their charge up to $4 a gallon today, rising to a new record high of $3.418 after jumping 1.9 cents last night.

Gas prices have been rising sharply over the past few months in reaction to record high oil prices and a weak dollar, and some analysts are already predicting that we will be seeing $4 a gallon before it is all said and done. Diesel prices also rose to a new high, hitting $4.146 per gallon.

As we noted in earlier discussions, gas prices are only expected to move higher in the next few months as more drivers hit the road for their summer vacations. The heavy demand summer driving months always apply upward pressure to prices, and despite the current high prices, summer demand will definitely push prices even higher.

Continue reading Gasoline prices hit new record high

China's economy grew at 10.6% annual rate in Q1 2008

China's economy grew 10.6% in Q1 2008, the Xinhua News Agency reported Wednesday, citing National Bureau of Statistics research, a pace well above what Chinese Government's ceiling for 2008 GDP growth.

Further consumer prices increased at annualized rate of 8.3% during March 2008, Xinhua reported, as China's infrastructure development and consumer demand for goods/service continued to place upward pressure on commodities and retail prices. China's GDP grew 11.9% in 2007.

In Q1 2008, industrial production jumped 16.4%, while investment in fixed assets, a category that covers categories from housing to new factory equipment, surged 24.6%.

Continue reading China's economy grew at 10.6% annual rate in Q1 2008

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Last updated: May 16, 2008: 01:45 PM

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