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Cramer in China: Cramer's top five China stock picks

On tonight's MAD MONEY on CNBC, Jim Cramer dedicated the night to China. He's not gung ho on Chinese stocks, but he's willing to review some of them. (As a reminder, Cramer said he doesn't like investing in China, he doesn't trust China, and he thinks it is overvalued.) He has forecasted an imminent 8% to 10% pullback any time, because, he says, the market is overheated. After you get that pullback then you can buy the stocks, but he advises not to do so now.

As a reminder, Cramer said he wouldn't cross the river with his charitable trust to invest in China, even if there was a 20% pullback in the market. But Cramer does have some picks; he has three solid steady plays and two speculative stock picks.

The 'solid plays':
  • CNOOC Limited (NYSE: CEO) is China's nationalized oil play, the number one offshore, a large player in Indonesia; it is 67% government-owned. Under the production sharing, the company gets the mandatory rights. As long as oil stays high this one is a winner, he thinks. ADR's have a $45 billion market cap; 3% dividend yield.
  • China Mobile Limited (NYSE: CHL), says Cramer, is the winner in the Chinese wireless market with 68% of the mobile users in China. The government owns the majority of the company. It has been on hold because of rumors that China Telecom might enter wireless; it has 1.9% dividend; $191 billion market cap.

Continue reading Cramer in China: Cramer's top five China stock picks

S&P 500 high: Where do we go from here?

The S&P 500 closed today at 1530.23, a new all-time closing high. The S&P 500 had been flirting with a new high these past 10 days, but now it is done and official. So, what does all this signify? Where do we go from here?

The United States stock markets have proven to be resilient and strong so far in 2007. The first quarter saw general corporate earnings to be quite healthy and, even more important, sustainable for the remainder of the year. The market was knocked -- before it even opened -- this morning by the news out of China. The government of China, trying to cool off the wild ride its market has provided this year, introduced a higher transaction tax. The government raised the rate from 0.1% to 0.3%. The Chinese market took a hit, but appears ready to plow right back through the pre-tax announcement.

The US market, and the S&P 500 specifically, is not generally viewed as "expensive." With the S&P 500 trading at 16 times 2007 expected earnings, the consensus is the market is fairly priced -- not over-priced. Coupled with strong corporate earnings experienced the first quarter, investors are feeling and showing confidence in the US economy. After all the stock market is the voice of near term confidence -- or lack of it.

The private equity world is keeping investors interest at a peak. The game of "who is next " on the acquisition block is keeping stocks afloat, and almost any company under $50 billion in market capitalization could be "in play." The share buyback programs are actively in place with almost $150 billion committed during this second quarter. It's a strong vote of confidence by American corporations in the value and merits of their own stocks.

So, we see strong corporate earnings flow, private equity activity at fever pitch, active share buy-backs, net in-flows into equity mutual funds and relatively low interest rates ... the S&P 500 is reflecting all of these positive factors.

Georges Yared is the CIO of Yared Investment Research. For more growth ideas please visit the web site

Wal-Mart, Carrefour slugging it out in retail China

Wal-Mart Stores, Inc (NYSE:WMT) has been trying like crazy to find consistent success in international markets, as trips into the countries of South Korea and Germany have ended up in failure. Not so in markets like China and India, where the world's largest retailer wants to take part in the growing economies of both countries and the increasing middle-class wealth that results in a nation of regular retail shoppers.

Right now, though, European retailer Carrefour is handily beating Wal-Mart in China. Carrefour saw Chinese sales go up in 2006 just as Wal-Mart was starting to make initial but important steps into the $1 trillion Chinese economy.

Carrefour's 54% growth in Chinese sales in 2006 will make it a little harder for Wal-Mart to dominate the Chinese market as it so desperately wants to do as sales and profit growth in the U.S. stagnate quarter after quarter. Wal-Mart did see a 30% sales growth increase in China during 2006, which is still a very commendable figure. With China estimated to become the world's second-largest consumer market by 2015, foreign companies may have a hard battle going up against intense local competition and related price wars. Both Carrefour and Wal-Mart may figure that out soon enough.

Symbol Lookup
IndexesChangePrice
DJIA-37.1910,741.98
NASDAQ-16.872,374.41
S&P 500-5.921,159.90

Last updated: March 20, 2010: 03:59 PM

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