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2008 Trades Gone Bad #2: Betting the China bull market would continue

Many people believed the Beijing Olympics would spark a multi-year bull market for China.

Leading up to the summer Olympics, the best think tanks in the world were putting out glowing reports of a new juggernaut economy that would lap the United States in a few short years.

At the start of the games, the Chinese market quickly came unglued.

Several ETFs that gave investors indexed exposure to Chinese stocks saw their values get hit for as much as 70%.

The iShares Xinhua/FTSE China 25 Index Fund (NYSE: FXI), which was listed by Barclays Global Investors in October 2004, is the most widely traded of all the China-related securities listed in the United States.

The ETF gained 83% in 2006 alone, but the bull run came to a sudden end in late 2007, and the ETF suffered a massive correction.

The FXI saw its shares dive by 50% in the months following the Olympics.

Ouch!

Bryan Perry is a contributor to OptionsZone.com.

Shortages in China: energy? water? food? -- nope, Chinese surnames

Imagine that! Of all the things that China, with its 1.3 billion people, might find in short supply you would probably never have guessed that it would be names. But that is the case. It seems that most of the population share a very small number of names.

BEIJING (AFP) - With more than a billion people now sharing just 100 surnames, Chinese authorities are considering a landmark move to try to end the confusion, state media reported Tuesday. For example 93 million people in China with the family name Wang. Another report by the Chinese Academy of Sciences found at least 100,000 people share China's most popular name, Wang Tao.You can read the details here: Chinese surname shortage sparks rethink.

This adds a tremendous amount of complexity to record keeping. What about deciphering between all those Wang Tao's at airport security. Homeland security in the United States has no-fly lists with names of people who have restricted access to travel or must go through additional security screening. There must be at least one person of concern named Wang Tao among 100,000 people. That leaves a whole lot of innocent folks who will not appreciate their airport experience.

Will they have to put fingerprints on all the new stock certificates they are issuing to avoid confusion? Think of all the cases of mistaken identity in the United States, now magnify that by 1,000 -- that calls for an "oh my gosh" at least, more likely a shriek if you are involved in the matter. So with all the problems this rapidly developing country has to endure, China is befuddled with name calling.

Those of you who are new to BloggingStocks can check out my other stories and read Chasing Value or Serious Money to find more potential opportunities and verify my track record as well. Disclosure: I own shares of four Chinese companies ACH, HNP, PTR, and SNDA, as of this writing.

Sheldon Liber is the CEO of a small private investment company and the vice president for design and research at an architecture & planning firm. Check out his other posts for BloggingStocks here.

Cramer in China: Cramer's top five China stock picks

On tonight's MAD MONEY on CNBC, Jim Cramer dedicated the night to China. He's not gung ho on Chinese stocks, but he's willing to review some of them. (As a reminder, Cramer said he doesn't like investing in China, he doesn't trust China, and he thinks it is overvalued.) He has forecasted an imminent 8% to 10% pullback any time, because, he says, the market is overheated. After you get that pullback then you can buy the stocks, but he advises not to do so now.

As a reminder, Cramer said he wouldn't cross the river with his charitable trust to invest in China, even if there was a 20% pullback in the market. But Cramer does have some picks; he has three solid steady plays and two speculative stock picks.

The 'solid plays':
  • CNOOC Limited (NYSE: CEO) is China's nationalized oil play, the number one offshore, a large player in Indonesia; it is 67% government-owned. Under the production sharing, the company gets the mandatory rights. As long as oil stays high this one is a winner, he thinks. ADR's have a $45 billion market cap; 3% dividend yield.
  • China Mobile Limited (NYSE: CHL), says Cramer, is the winner in the Chinese wireless market with 68% of the mobile users in China. The government owns the majority of the company. It has been on hold because of rumors that China Telecom might enter wireless; it has 1.9% dividend; $191 billion market cap.

Continue reading Cramer in China: Cramer's top five China stock picks

Global gains: An Olympic play on China tourism

I've just returned from the World Money Show, where some 10,000+ investors gathered to learn about global investing. I had a chance to meet with many of the advisors who were featured at the show, and I have been highlighting some of their favorite investment ideas. To view all of the stocks featured in this special global report, click here.

"As it feverishly prepares for the 2008 Olympics -- the biggest coming out party for a country in history -- China appears ready to take its place in the global economic elite," notes international investing expert Nick Vardy.

The London-based money manager and editor of The Global Bull Market Alert sees opportunity in Shanghai-headquartered, Home Inns & Hotels Management (NASDAQ:HMIN).

He explains, "Operating exclusively in China's fast-growth markets, Home Inn has become China's top budget hotel chain virtually overnight. And with the Olympic games putting China firmly on the global tourism map, Home Inns also offers U.S. investors the best way to profit directly from the massive demand for hotel rooms in China by foreigners.

"Incorporated in 2002, Home Inns has a head start in China that gives the company a huge first-mover advantage in a sector with vast potential. Domestic Chinese travel jumped almost 75% from 1995 to 2004, with travel spending growing to $66.1 billion. Home Inns already operates 134 hotels across China, opening 27 hotels in the fourth quarter of 2006 alone.

"An additional 48 hotels are already under contract. With operations in 39 cities, and having its pick of prime, underserved markets with strong population and economic growth, Home Inns is particularly well-positioned to take advantage of China's potential moving ahead.

Continue reading Global gains: An Olympic play on China tourism

Huaneng Power: Get into China for 2007

Great companies and great stocks can be found everyday and everywhere you look. However, sometimes we look but we do not see. How can that be? Sheldon Liber brings a brighter light to illuminate picks for 2007 and beyond. Huaneng Power International (NYSE:HNP) is his fourth of seven for 2007.

Huaneng Power International ADS (NYSE: HNP) Yes, I know you have heard me push this stock before. If you regularly read my stories you have heard it many times. This is one of my favorite companies and, unless something changes, it will remain so for the rest of my life! It is particularly attractive in a Roth IRA where you can collect the dividend tax free. So lets start with the yield of 3.44%, that's nice. Add to that you have some foreign exposure, but through the NYSE. Now consider it is the largest power company in the largest, fastest-growing market.

Need more, Barron's (my favorite read) gave me another reason to examine HNP for investment, although unwittingly. The magazine wrote an article highlighting several Chinese REITS that have done extremely well and suggested the sector has plenty of room to run for years to come. Well, these REITS are all listed on the Hong Kong exchange. That is a place I do not feel comfortable doing any trading for the time being. I also do not feel I have enough information to distinguish one from another, despite Barron's worthy attempt to educate me. But consider this: no matter whether one or all continue to develop properties successfully and make tons of money, they will all need power. HNP is most likely to be the provider of that power.

China has so much to do in the next 30 to 50 years in expanding its economy, that HNP seems solid even if you overpay now. Since I started proclaiming this as a must-own stock it is up over 40% in real terms and much more on an annualized basis. The shares have climbed so much (you can't see it but I'm taking a bow, thank you very much) that I must express a word of caution. I bought in at $26.35 and it closed at $36.35 last night. This remains a stock to own but the entry point is harder to know, so I am going to recommend you dollar-cost average and buy shares on a periodic basis, so that in the long run, you are on board this train, even if you do not always get a short-term bargain. It is at an all-time high and that is not usually the best time to buy. But we are not trying to time the market, just appreciate it over time. (Read the Company Profile.)

Top Picks 2007: Mostrous talks up Taiwan telecom

Each year Steven Halpern, editor of TheStockAdvisors.com, surveys the leading financial newsletter advisors asking for their favorite stocks for the coming year. This article is part of his 24th annual Top Picks Report.

Taiwan-based Chunghwa Telecom Co. (NYSE: CHT) is the favorite conservative idea for 2007 from Yiannis Mostrous, editor of The Silk Road Investor, and author of the recently published book of the same name.

The global advisor notes, "Taiwan remains a political market in the sense that until the unification issue is resolved, there will always be a 'lid' on Taiwan's economic growth. But once the political issues are addressed, Taiwan's market will decisively move higher.

"Although this adds an element of risk to investing in Taiwan, the Taiwanese market could perform well this year as it is one of the cheapest in Asia (eight years of underperformance), is disliked by all, and offers a 3.7% dividend yield. (Dividends are taxed in Taiwan, and U.S. stockholders can use the net amount of the withholding tax as a credit.)

Continue reading Top Picks 2007: Mostrous talks up Taiwan telecom

Symbol Lookup
IndexesChangePrice
DJIA-89.2312,801.23
NASDAQ-23.352,903.88
S&P 500-9.311,342.64

Last updated: February 11, 2012: 06:53 PM

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