Next week is sure to be filled with fun and volatile market conditions. The highlight will be the Fed decision on key rates, due on Wednesday, April 30, following a two-day meeting. Anytime the Fed has the floor, the markets listen. Tuesday and Wednesday will be filled with speculation up until the time of the announcement of a cut or pause.
There are many possible outcomes for this meeting, as we have seen a substantial change in investor sentiment regarding the potential need for further rate cuts. The buzz on the street is for a cut of 25 basis points and then a wait-and-see attitude from there. I think that is the most likely direction.
There has been a great deal of concern that all the recent rate cuts have not provided the benefit to consumers the economy needs. Clearly, there is a fatty clog within our financial circulatory system. Traditionally, the Fed likes to see how its actions trickle into the economy before it continues too far down one path, which would argue for a pause now. Plus, the Fed does not want to run out of ammunition by cutting rates too far too fast. But there is no question that we are dealing with a more aggressive Fed than we have seen in decades, so I think we will see another small rate cut.
Chipotle (NYSE: CMG) is recently down 29 cents to $117. CMG is expected to report EPS on February 14. Robert Baird says, "Remain confident in outlook, expecting robust trends to continue in 2008; maintaining Neutral rating on valuation."
CMG February call option implied volatility is at 68, puts are at 84, above its 26-week average of 42, according to Track Data, suggesting larger price risk. CMG puts are priced higher than calls because CMG is difficult to borrow.
Options Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com
We recently took a look at the Best & Worst of 2007 in sixteen categories and asked you to vote for your favorites, as well as sharing the reasons for your picks and any other contenders we may have overlooked. And voting is off to a strong start, with more than 100,000 votes in each category so far.
Some categories have shaped up to be close races. Chuck Prince, Bill Ford, and Bob Nardelli each have a little less than a third of the vote for Best CEO Departure of the Year. Britney Spears and Michael Vick are neck and neck as the Celebrity Most Likely to Lose It All, while Lindsey Lohan's relatively low profile recently has garnered her just 6 percent of that vote. In the Most Shameless Attempt at Cashing in on '15 Minutes', Sanjaya Malakar has a slim lead over Howard K. Stern/Larry Birkhead, but poor Chris "Leave Britney Alone!" Crocker has gotten no respect with a mere 6 percent of the vote. McDonald's has a small lead as the Hottest Chain Restaurant, thought Chipotle isn't far behind with more than a quarter of the vote. And while the iPhone has the lead now as the Hottest Gadget of the Year, it and the Nintendo Wii have been trading places as the front runner.
This post was part of AOL Money & Finance's Best & Worst of 2007. Voting has now closed and readers have chosen old favorite McDonald'sas the hottest restaurant chain of the year. Let us know in the comments if you are pleased with this result.
America might as well change its tagline to "The Land of the Free and the Home of the Fast Food." Are we really "brave" any more? Our collective culinary adventures seem to start and end at chipotle peppers. Chipotle, that smokey hot chile whose provenance is deeply American and whose name is synonymous with a whole type of cuisine; in fact, one of the hottest restaurants in the country is named for the spicy stuff.
But it is not Chipotle that is making the splashiest headlines this year; no, it's the oldest and favorite-est of them all, McDonald's (NYSE: MCD). Just take a look at the company's stock over the past year ... three years ... five years ... the charts read like an American Investment Dream success story. The returns, respectively: 41%, 89.6%, 213.4% seem mystical. Is this the same company whose menu items were flopping and service was embarassing, only a few years ago?
For a sport that just a few years ago was the darling of the blue-chippers, NASCAR has suddenly found love as hard to come by as a meth-addled octogenarian. After Anheuser-Busch (NYSE: BUD) dropped its 25-year long title sponsorship of the race promoter's second-tier series, Subway seemed a lock to take it on.
Now comes news that the restaurant's ardor for the series has cooled, and NASCAR has been forced to revisit formerly spurned suitors such as KFC (NYSE: YUM), Allstate (NYSE: ALL) and Dunkin' Donuts (D'OH!).
Along with the decline in interest has come a drop in price. The value of the sponsorship, once thought to run $30 million a year, has been halved. NASCAR is not the only loser in that drop; the original price included a mandatory ESPN ad buy of around $10 million, a requirement that has been relaxed.
According to Michael Smith in the Sporting News, Subway balked at the lack of exclusivity, a constant source of tension in the race industry where teams, tracks, OEMs and suppliers are also hustling sponsorships for every nut, bolt and beer cozy in the paddock.
NASCAR fans skew 60-40% male, slightly above the U.S. average in the 35-44 year of age category. They are overrepresented in the lower income categories, which would dampen the interest of luxury product companies. One interesting statistic is its popularity among America's fastest growing minority -- Hispanic fans have grown from 3.6% to 8.6% in only a few years. So how about the Taco Bell series? Or The Chipotle (NYSE: CMG) 500?
The Barron's "Weekday Trader" article stated that after hitting an all-time high yesterday, the stock is due to fall. It cites two downgrades of Chipotle from earlier this summer, the rise in the prices of ingredients, and the fact that Americans are eating out less.
With as much market uncertainty as we are seeing, and the fear the uncertainty is causing among investors, stocks trading at such high multiples -- such as Chipotle's 54x 2007 P/E ratio, are due to fall. The only question now is -- how far?
Editor's Note: Special shout out to BloggingStocks' own Georges Yared, who is quoted in the Barron's article.
French bank BNP Paribas' Investment Partners unit is temporarily suspending three of its funds because of a lack of liquidity in the market as a result of the troubled subprime mortgage market, reported the Wall Street Journal (subscription required).
Toyota Motor Corporation (NYSE: TM) will delay for one or two years its new high mileage hybrids with lithium-ion battery technology due to possible safety problems, reported the Wall Street Journal.
Barron's Online's (subscription required) "Weekday Trader" argued that it may be time to take profits in Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc (NYSE: CMG), as the company hit a record high yesterday and trades at an enormous multiple.
The Financial Times (subscription required) reported that MMC Energy Inc (NASDAQ: MMCE) is not entering the ethanol market as the company does not believe it can be profitable yet.
OTHER PAPERS:
The U.K. Times reported that Oracle Corporation (NASDAQ: ORCL) president Charles Phillips said a global credit crunch will help Oracle as it will hurt competing private equity firms from raising cheap capital.
McDonald's purchased the chain in 2000, when aggregation was the hot button in the industry, for $173.5 million. Boston Market currently has $180 million in assets and $89.1 million of liabilities.
The move makes senses for both parties. Much like its earlier divestiture of Chipotle Mexican Grill (NYSE:CMG), cutting Boston Market loose will free up more cash for McDonald's to reinvest in growing the mother ship, and will further eliminate distractions to its strategic plan.
For Sun Capital Partners, the expertise gained by the management of its other holdings in the restaurant industry, including Real Mex, Bruegger's Bagels, Fazoli's, Garden Fresh and Souper Salad, should aid it in maximizing the value of the Boston Market brand.
MOST NOTEWORTHY: Getty Images (GYI), Jackson Hewitt (JTX), Electronic Data (EDS), RC2 Corp (RCRC) and Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) were today's noteworthy downgrades:
Deutsche Bank cut Getty Images (NYSE: GYI) to Sell from Hold citing deterioration in its core business. Gabelli downgraded Getty Images to Hold from Buy after the company lowered guidance to reflect the changing industry dynamics.
Goldman cut Jackson Hewitt (NYSE: JTX) to Sell from Neutral citing near-term risks that include the renegotiation of the HSBC (HBC)/RAL contract, the DoJ/IRS investigation, and decreasing performance in tax.
Jefferies downgraded Electronic Data Systems (NYSE: EDS) to Hold from Buy to reflect the company's slowing cash flow improvement.
Wedbush downgraded RC2 Corp (NASDAQ: RCRC) to Buy from Strong Buy on the lower sales forecast for 2007. Soleil cut shares to Hold from Gradually Accumulate to reflect uncertainty over the Thomas recall and increased competition.
Chipotle Mexican Grill (NYSE: CMG) was downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform based on valuation...
OTHER DOWNGRADES:
Lazard downgraded Kyphon (NASDAQ: KYPH) to Hold from Buy.
On tonight's MAD MONEY on CNBC, Jim Cramer said the best company he has in the food space is Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. (NYSE: CMG). He says this is a regional to national story that beat estimates and raised guidance last night. Cramer noted that the stock hasn't even seen upgrades after a 12% gain today on the better performance and Cramer said he thinks Chipotle will go up Thursday again. He interviewed Chipotle's CFO on the show.
Cramer asked about food costs being up..... costs are higher and theirs grew 100 basis points, but they have food integrity and solid contracts. The rest of the P&L statement is very efficient and they can offset some of that. Cramer's concern is on the slowness of the original buildout and then changing to rapid growth..... CFO said they are growing based on real estate availability and the quality of managers they can get. Managers are coming from inside now and they can do better now than earlier. How do they incentivize managers? Elite managers are bonused on sales growth above expectations above plan plus they get $10K per group leader that gets turned into a manager. As far as feeling like a chain....CFO said he doesn't want it to feel like a chain and they want to personalize the experience.
Chipotle is on a tear, that's a fact. Shares climbed nearly another 2% to yet another high, above $100.00 after Cramer talked this up after-hours. My only concern here is that at $3.25 billion in market cap with 640 restaurants and 110 to 120 restaurants scheduled to open in 2007, the value here is pretty high. If the company beats 2007 estimates by 20% it trades at 50-times earnings. On a per store value assuming these all come online that generates a $4,276,315.78 value per store after the store openings, and as of today's 640 restaurants in operation assuming no add-ons you would have a franchise value per store of $5,078,125.00 per store. The good news for growth and speculative investors is that in all fairness, these cautionary metrics I calculated won't come into play for some time and there is an unbelievable amount of growth this chain can generate now that it is out on its own.
Jon Ogg can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.
Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc (NYSE: CMG) reported outstanding results again last night, and the fast-food chain rallied big in after-hours trading, up as much as $6. This followed a similar type of moving in the previous day's trading. Here are some of the highlights:
Net income increased 85.1% to $20.0 million -- Not too shabby!
Chipotle, which was scooped up by McDonald's Corporation (NYSE: MCD) at its earlier stages of development, looks like it's going to be the McDonald's of the future. This is comparable to investing in Ray Kroc when few of his hamburger joints populated the country. Buy Chipotle and go along for the ride.
I've held the anti-restaurant thesis for several weeks now, and I think the two reports after the bell yesterday validated the thoughts. Commodity costs are up, labor costs are increasing (and will to continue to increase) with the rise in the minimum wage, the increase in gas prices crunches the consumer's spending power, and so on.
CEC Entertainment (NYSE: CEC), the operator of Chuck E. Cheeses restaurants, reported earnings of 26 cents per share vs. expectations of 34 cents per share. In addition, same-store-sales fell 1.6% while operating costs rose 4%. Interestingly, the company attributed its poor performance not only to gas prices, but also popular new movie releases which drew its young-children demographic out of its restaurants and into movie theaters. If this wasn't enough, CEC cut its full year guidance to $1.96-$2.04 per share -- a rather significant difference from the analyst estimates of $2.26 per share before this report.
Similarly, Panera Bread (NASDAQ: PNRA) disappointed the street after the bell. As Beth Gaston Moon reported, the company's guidance for the coming quarter of 32-38 cents per share in EPS came in below prior analyst expectations of 43 cents. In addition, the company's guidance for the second half of the year of $.86-1.02 per share disappointed analysts who expected $1.12 per share.
MOST NOTEWORTHY: Google (GOOG), Yahoo! (YHOO), Apple (AAPL), Cash Systems (CKNN) and Citrix (CTXS) were today's noteworthy initiations:
Oppenheimer believes Google Inc (NASDAQ: GOOG) is the largest beneficiary of the secular growth trends in Internet advertising and transitioned coverage with a Buy rating and $625 target.
Oppenheimer also believes the current price of Yahoo! (NASDAQ: YHOO) is an attractive entry point given the company's number one position in display advertising and the recent successful launch of Panama. The firm transitioned coverage of Yahoo! with a Buy rating and $34 target.
RBC Capital sees continued upside for Apple Inc (NASDAQ: AAPL) based on achieving its 10M goal for iPhone, upside from Mac momentum and maintaining iPod/iTunes dominance helped by new products, and started shares with an Outperform rating and $160 target.
Merriman believes Cash Systems (NASDAQ: CKNN) is positioned to gain meaningful share in the casino cash access industry through the near-term introduction of powercash and started shares with a Buy rating.
Friedman Billings believes Citrix's (NASDAQ: CTXS) latest Presentation Server product release has some near-term risk given raised prices and initiated shares with a Market Perform rating and $35 target...
OTHER INITIATIONS:
ValueClick (NASDAQ: VCLK) was initiated at Oppenheimer with a Buy rating.
Buffalo Wild Wings-(NASDAQ: BWLD) volatility decreases as BWLD rallies 14% on upside EPS. BWLD, owns, operates and franchises 439 restaurants featuring chicken wings. BWLD is recently up $9.09 to $73.93. SMH Capital reiterated its Buy rating and raised its 12-month price target to $84. SMH Capital says "The robust cash balance of over $8 a share and strong franchise partners should fuel that unit development at an annual clip of 15%- 17%." BWLD call option volume of 4,230 contracts compares to put volume of 3,057 contracts. BWLD over all option implied volatility of 38 is below its 17-week average of 41 according to Track Data, suggesting decreasing risk.
Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.-(NASDAQ: CMG) option implied volatility decreases as CMG rallies 18% on upside EPS. CMG, an operator of over 500 companies owned and eight franchise fast-casual Mexican restaurants, reported 1st quarter revenues increased 26.2% to $236 million. CMG is recently up $11.81 to $78.07. CIBC says "CMG delivers big Upside despite tougher comparisons...Foiling shorts." CMG June call option implied volatility is priced at 25, puts are at 33; near its 26-week average of 27, but below yesterday exaggerated level of 38-44 according to Track Data, suggesting decreasing risks. CMG puts are more expensive than calls because CMG is difficult to borrow.
MOST NOTEWORTHY: Newmont Mining Corp (NEM), Qwest Communications International Inc (Q), Sirius Satellite Radio Inc (SIRI), Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc (CMG) and American Eagle Outfitters (AEO) were today's noteworthy upgrades:
Prudential upgraded shares of Newmont Mining Corp (NYSE: NEM) to Neutral from Underweight citing valuation, higher gold and copper prices and specific mine factors that should lead to an operational turnaround.
Credit Suisse raised shares of Qwest Communications International Inc (NYSE: Q) to Neutral from Underperform as the firm believes management is less likely to engage in a fiber video build and cites the increase in the company's NOL carry-forwards.
Sirius Satellite Radio (NASDAQ: SIRI) was upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at Barrington Research.
Raymond James upgraded Chipotle Mexican Grill (NYSE: CMG) to Outperform from Market Perform. Morgan Keegan also raised shares to Outperform from Market Perform, citing better-than-projected operating fundamentals and growth prospects.
American Eagle Outfitters (NYSE: AEO) was upgraded to Strong Buy from Buy at Matrix USA to reflect the company's impressive SSS growth...
OTHER UPGRADES:
Arris Group, Inc (NASDAQ: ARRS) was upgraded to Sector Performer from Underperformer.
Next week is sure to be filled with fun and volatile market conditions. The highlight will be the Fed decision on key rates, due on Wednesday, April 30, following a two-day meeting. Anytime the Fed has the floor, the markets listen. Tuesday and Wednesday will be filled with speculation up until the time of the announcement of a cut or pause.
Chipotle
America might as well change its tagline to "The Land of the Free and the Home of the Fast Food." Are we really "brave" any more? Our collective culinary adventures seem to start and end at chipotle peppers. Chipotle, that smokey hot chile whose provenance is deeply American and whose name is synonymous with a whole type of cuisine; in fact, one of the hottest restaurants in the country is named for the spicy stuff.
For a sport that just a few years ago was the darling of the blue-chippers, NASCAR has suddenly found love as hard to come by as a meth-addled octogenarian. After .gif){kind=logo}
McDonald's
I've held the anti-restaurant thesis for several weeks now, and I think the two reports after the bell yesterday validated the thoughts. Commodity costs are up, labor costs are increasing (and will to continue to increase) with the rise in the minimum wage, the increase in gas prices crunches the consumer's spending power, and so on. 
Buffalo Wild Wings
The week in preview: Chicken soup (or a doughnut) for the recession-weary soul?
Comfort Zone Investing: Oil's down, which is a start, but not good enough
Stocks have their worst week in six years
