This is the final review of the seven stocks I picked twelve months ago, and the time has passed quickly. This covers the period from December 28 2006 through December 27 2007. It has been a stock pickers year for sure given that the S&P 500 index moved up only modestly. Having come to this conclusion, I must admit my seven picks were all over the place. Three beat the indices, two performed sorely and two were basically break even except for the healthy dividends.

If the stock you happened to pick was Google, Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG), which I included as sort of a "stalking horse" because of its popularity, it beat all else as a portfolio of one. As a matter of fact GOOG beat my picks by a whopping 930% meaning it bested my returns with very little effort with a gain 9.3 times the average of my seven stock picks.

The average of my seven picks fell dramatically in the last two months and I have gone from wonderboy with about a 22% YTD return, to waterboy with about 5.5% return -- UGH! I rode the Chinese market up and down, among the macro events.

Luckily for me I did not stop picking stocks last December. My actual average of all recommendations in 2007 is notably higher, see: Chasing Value: My best and worst picks of 2007.

Highlighting the fact that this year was suited to the stock pickers, James Cramer's average based on his nine picks beat all the indices by a healthy margin. Cramer, as you might imagine, had the most volatile picks. The two best Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) and Savient Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NASDAQ: SVNT) did spectacularly well. Apple was appreciating most of the year while Savient saved Cramers tush by doubling in the last month due to approval of one of their drug therapies.

Continue reading Chasing Value: 7 for 2007 review: Props to Cramer for his 2007 picks

Chasing Value: 7 for 2007 review: Props to Cramer for his 2007 picks originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 01 Jan 2008 13:13:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

For the most part, this year has portrayed itself as a stock picker's market. If the stock you happened to pick was Google (NASDAQ: GOOG), which I included for fun because of its popularity, it beat all else as a portfolio of one.

The average of my seven picks fell as dramatically in November as it rose in October, reflecting the ebb and flow of the Chinese market. James Cramer's average based on his nine picks sank as well, but not as much. While Cramer managed to stay ahead of all the indices, and I beat the benchmark Standard & Poor's 500 and marginally beat the Dow Jones Industrial Average, I lost out to the NASDAQ and the average of the three.

Last month, after reporting spectacular gains, I remained realistic when posting "Of course, this could easily change given recent market volatility. A sharp downturn in the market could reverse our fortunes. A lot can happen in the remaining two months -- I take nothing for granted."

Yes, Google has done well, but Cramer's best, Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) has done much better. It seems to be priced for perfection, as they say, but it also seems to be achieving it so far on the wings of the iPhone, iPod, and growing Mac sales. Warren Buffett voiced his opinion that the Chinese market has gotten bloated, and PetroChina ADR (NYSE: PTR), while still up significantly, dropped back off its all-time highs after becoming the second-largest capitalized company in the world.

Continue reading Chasing Value: After 11 months, AAPL +125%, GOOG +50%, PTR +35%

Chasing Value: After 11 months, AAPL +125%, GOOG +50%, PTR +35% originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 10 Dec 2007 16:55:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

July started off so promising and ended in the dumps. After the DJIA triumphantly closed above 14,000 it beat a hasty retreat scared off by a tumbling housing market, continued worries about sub-prime loans, record highs in oil prices, continued turmoil in Iraq and perhaps a dose of summer vacationitus. In addition, market darlings Apple and Google exited the month with a few unanswered questions. Nothing could be more telling than people speculating about a Dow 15,000...16,000...17,000 the moment it passed the 14,000 mark. And silly guy that I am...thoughts of repeating my 29% 2006 return entered my mind when I reached a 24% IRR earlier. That no longer looks like a possibility although I'm still doing fine - so far.

The month of July started off about stock picking and finished about stock picking as James Cramer of TheStreet.com would support. However, among the good picks were plenty of bad ones and anything remotely associated with housing, and sub-prime loans paid a heavy price by month end. Google maintained its leadership but did take a dive after reporting earnings. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) set so many new highs that it is not news anymore, but then there was news, most of it bad enough to put doubt in investors minds, and the market traded down. Earnings reports still trickle in but nothing major unexpected affected the market. Mergers and acquisitions are showing some signs of slowing, but deals are getting done. This is my seventh follow-up report. For reference, check out my original Dec. 28, 2006 post on this topic.

Although the DJIA has been the market leader among the indices and may indicate that investors are giving large cap stocks their due, it has retreated lately. It also may indicate that the global economy is doing better as a whole than the national economy, creating opportunity for the multi-national corporations.

Continue reading Chasing Value 2007 picks : Google (GOOG) runs up, Cramer runs down, indices worse

Chasing Value 2007 picks : Google (GOOG) runs up, Cramer runs down, indices worse originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 08 Aug 2007 17:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

The market managed to make some small gains today; it dipped on the Fed announcement but then recovered. The Fed left rates unchanged and I think this was the heart of the announcement.

"Economic growth was moderate during the first half of the year. Financial markets have been volatile in recent weeks, credit conditions have become tighter for some households and businesses, and the housing correction is ongoing. Nevertheless, the economy seems likely to continue to expand at a moderate pace over coming quarters, supported by solid growth in employment and incomes and a robust global economy."

While Cramer thinks the Fed out of touch... I think their analysis is accurate.

The NYSE had volume of 4.3 billion shares with 1,882 shares advancing while 1,409
declined for a gain of 52.3 points to close at 9,606.07. On the NASDAQ, 2.8 billion shares traded, 1,754 advanced and 1,327 declined for a gain of 14.27 to 2,561.6.

Chipotle Mexican Grill (NYSE: CMG) rose $9.10 (9%) to $108.50. Lennar Corporation (NYSE: LEN) rose $2.13 (7%) to $34.49. International Flavors & Fragrances (NYSE: IFF) fell $3.23 (-6%) to $47.45 as net sales rose 8%. Circuit City Stores (NYSE: CC) fell $0.62 (-6%) to $10.57. MasterCard Incorporated (NYSE: MA) rose $6.65 (5%) to $144.27.

The most active and interesting option today include the following. QualComm (NASDAQ: QCOM) had heavy volume on the September 45 calls (AAOII) with over 63,000 options trading; the company was in the news on a patent case. Cisco Systems (NASDAQ: CSCO) moved volume on the August 30 calls (CYQHF) with over 62,000 options trading ahead of 0.36 cent per share earnings. CBOE S&P 500 Volatility Index (NASDAQ: $VIX) saw heavy volume on the September 25 calls (VIXIE) with over 39,000 options trading. In options there were 7 million puts and 7.4 million calls traded for a put/call open interest ratio of 0.95.
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Kevin Kersten is an Options Analyst with InvestorsObserver.com. Disclosure note: Mr. Kersten owns and or controls a diversified portfolio of long and short positions that may include holdings in companies he writes about.

Tuesday Market Rap: CSCO, CC, MA, QCOM, & Fed Meeting originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 07 Aug 2007 18:20:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

The month of May was all about stock picking as James Cramer of TheStreet.com has come roaring back after a poor showing in April. Google also made a strong move upward. After languishing for three months it has come close to its all time high. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) set so many new highs that it is not news anymore. Earnings reports still trickle in but nothing major has affected the market. Mergers and acquisitions are a bigger story and something seems to be happening every day. This is my fifth follow-up report. It is not a long time, but short of a major change in the global economic picture it looks like 2007 will be a good year. For reference, check out my original Dec. 28, 2006 post on this topic.

The DJIA has been the market leader among the indices and may indicate that investors are finaly giving large cap stocks their due. It also may indicate that the global economy is doing better as a whole than the national economy. There also may be some flight to safety. That said, May was not a time of caution. Investors moved everything upward with even the S&P 500 index reaching a new high. Cramer took back the lead and for the first time the indices lagged.

Continue reading Chasing down 007 picks: Google & Cramer roaring back and the Dow oh my!

Chasing down 007 picks: Google & Cramer roaring back and the Dow oh my! originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 04 Jun 2007 16:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

This is an update through April 30, 2007 after many companies have reported their first quarter earnings and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJAI) passed the 13,000 watermark and set new record highs. We are still in the midst of earnings season. This is my fourth follow-up report. Not enough time to prove much but plenty of time to make or lose some money. If you want to refer to the original article from December 28, 2006 see: You don't have to be 007 to find the best picks for 2007!

This month an interesting trend took hold. Even with the indices reaching new highs and many stocks doing so as well, it seems there must be some caution in the wind. This is the first month that my value approach lead the pack and Cramer's approach, whatever it is, took a back seat. Not only is Cramer lagging each of the indices, but four of his six speculative and growth picks were down while all three of his value picks were up. Google seems to be dead in the water for now, having reported tremendous growth and beating analyst's guestimates again by a wide margin, it still has not gained any traction even in an up market.

Continue reading Chasing down 007 picks: Index beats Cramer - value trumps growth

Chasing down 007 picks: Index beats Cramer - value trumps growth originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Fri, 04 May 2007 16:42:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

This is an update through March 30, 2007 bringing the first quarter to a close. Earnings season is now upon us. It is my third follow-up report. Three months is a short time in the market for long term investors, and an eternity for a day trader. If you want to refer to the original article from December 28, 2006 see: You don't have to be 007 to find the best picks for 2007!.

Summary of Results:

• James Cramer's average return on his 9 picks was 2% after two months but now stands at: +2.82% an improvement. Adding the dividend portion (.66 x .25) of 0.165 brings Cramer's gain to 2.99%. Last month it was his speculative stocks that supported his gains. This month they pulled back and his gains came from his best pick so far, Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL)
• The Indexes remained slightly negative, the DJIA leading the way south: -1.2%. Adding it's portion of the dividend yield (1.8 x .25) of .45 brings it up to a gain of 0.85 for the quarter.
• My picks are down for the year, but improved from -1.9% last month, to a negative of -0.61% for the quarter. Adding the dividend portion of (3 x .25) of .75 brings my quarter to a slight gain of 0.14% which is negligible. My picks are the most volatile now with super gains over 25% from Valero Energy (NYSE:VLO) and super losses from PetroChina Co. (NYSE:PTR) which was at an all-time high when I mentioned it. Both companies are in the same industry, but PetroChina's profits are more closely regulated.
• Google (NASDAQ:GOOG) provided an +8.1% return in January, slipped to -2.9% in February and YTD has moved up for a smaller loss: -1.0% Although it has been an erratic three months Google has managed to float within a tighter range lately.

Not much change since last month. Since the quarter has concluded I added one quarter of the the dividends to the results. This is one of the criteria I used in my stock picks and will have an impact on the final results. Only 3 of Cramer's picks pay dividends averaging about .66%; the Indexes pay a higher average of 1.8%; my picks average still higher at about 3%; and Google does not pay a dividend. The flatter the market is this year the more the dividends will be a factor.

I still remain very comfortable with my stock picks and believe this year will prove to be a "Tortoise and Hare" story. It is my belief that 'Value' will beat 'Growth' and 'Indexing' over the long run. Google is a wild card! Two of my picks continue to be mentioned as buyout candidates; Dow Chemical Co. (NYSE: DOW) and Home Depot (NYSE:HD). Home Depot is receiving the most negative discussion in business circles these days but I see it as becoming a greater value at the lower price.

The following are the closing prices as of December 28, 2006 and three month returns for the seven stocks I recommended plus the addition of Spectra Energy that was spun out of Duke Energy (NYSE:DUK).

Continue reading Chasing down 007 picks: Q1 is done - Valero is tops

Chasing down 007 picks: Q1 is done - Valero is tops originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 02 Apr 2007 14:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

This is an update through February 28, 2007 which has come and gone all too quickly. It is my second follow-up report. Two months is a short time in the market for a buy and hold guy like me, and ages for a day trader. If you want to refer to the original article from December 28, 2006 see: You don't have to be 007 to find the best picks for 2007!.

Summary of Results:.

• James Cramer's average return on his 9 picks was 5.86% last month but now after two months is: +2%. Interestingly it is his speculative stocks that are up the most. Best pick so far Level 3 communications.
• The Indexes all reversed from positive territory to slightly negative, the DJIA leading the way south: -1.2%.
• Liber return is negative at -1.9% held down by my inclusion of PetroChina which is down 22%. I cautioned about buying this stock at close to an all time high. However, for the purposes of this story I used that number as my starting point. Best pick so far Valero Energy.
• Google provided an +8.1% return in January and has since slipped for a YTD loss: -2.9% Among all considerations Google had the poorest showing in the last month going from first to last.

After each quarter I will be adding the dividends to the results. This is one of the criteria I used in my stock picks and will have an impact on the final results. Only 3 of Cramers picks pay dividends averaging about .66%; the Indexes pay a higher average of 1.8%; my picks average still higher at about 3%; and Google does not pay a dividend.

I still remain very comfortable with my stock picks and believe this year will prove to be a "Tortoise and Hare" story. It is my belief that 'Value' will beat 'Growth' and 'Indexing' over the long run. Google is a wild card! Two of my picks continue to be mentioned as buyout candidates; Dow Chemical Company and The Home Depot.

The following are the closing prices as of December 28, 2006 and two month returns for the seven stocks I recommended plus the addition of Spectra Energy that was spun out of Duke:

Continue reading Chasing down 007 picks: Jan/Feb results - Cramer on top

Chasing down 007 picks: Jan/Feb results - Cramer on top originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Sun, 04 Mar 2007 14:48:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.