TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says this consumer-products titan has weathered the storm and should enjoy lower inputs.
General Mills (NYSE: GIS) (Cramer's Take) hits another 52-week high. This company has been one of the great standout performers this year, just a juggernaut, even though it is a gigantic buyer of grains and a huge user of cardboard boxes and plastic wrapping. Plus, it needs gasoline to deliver product. Some of this move has to be attributed to projections of huge declines in raw costs. Those are going to happen, as we know from the commodities.
But perhaps it is worth noting that few packaged goods companies -- perhaps Heinz (NYSE: HNZ) (Cramer's Take) is an exception -- dominate and innovate as well as GIS does. It has always been one of the great brand producers and acquirers, and also a company that can take out costs better than anyone. When I compare how a Unilever (NYSE: UN) (Cramer's Take) or a Clorox (NYSE: CLX) (Cramer's Take) has handled the raw costs to how General Mills has performed, it is almost as if GIS is a pharmaceutical with no raw cost exposure whatsoever.
Procter & Gamble (NYSE: PG) reported its Q4 and full-year results on Tuesday. The numbers looked very good to me (save for one, which I'll get to). P&G was up over 3% on Tuesday. Granted, the Dow saw one heck of a rally yesterday, but even so, P&G deserved a bid just due to its blue-chip corporate performance.
Revenues for the quarter increased 10%, and adjusted earnings per diluted share jumped over 19% to $0.80. For the year, revenues increased 9% and adjusted earnings per diluted share rose 15% to $3.50. As I stated in my earnings preview from the other day, Wall Street was looking for adjusted earnings to be around $0.78 per share. So P&G beat by two pennies.
Of course, the earnings beat is nice, but cash flow is even nicer. In fact, management likes to evaluate itself by comparing its free cash flow to net earnings. P&G would like the so-called "free cash flow productivity" metric to equal at least 90%. Well, shareholders need not worry, since productivity in these terms was 96% for the quarter and 106% for the fiscal year. Free cash flow for the year expanded by 21%, and it was more than enough to power P&G's great dividend.
I love coupons; who doesn't? They are, arguably, one of the most important marketing tools used by companies such as Procter & Gamble (NYSE: PG), Colgate-Palmolive (NYSE: CL), and General Mills (NYSE: GIS). I also love coupon distribution on the web, so I'm hoping a new technology reported on by BusinessWeek really takes off.
A company called Coupons, Inc. has developed a system dubbed Brandcaster. It essentially follows Google's (NASDAQ: GOOG) model of monetization. Depending on where you are on the web and what you are looking at, the Brandcaster will determine if a coupon may be applicable to you. It will then try to get you to access the coupon and print it up. Web sites who use the application will be given a cut of revenues generated from successful coupon printings. So, speaking hypothetically, if I'm on a site that's dedicated to video games, maybe this Brandcaster thing will someday tell me that I can print up a coupon allowing me to get $5 off a new software title.
If this is promoted properly, and if the value to consumer companies can be adequately communicated, then I think Coupons, Inc. has a hit on its hands. Like I say, people love coupons, and I think they are more likely to act on printing out a coupon then they are to, say, buy a product immediately online through a banner ad. I see this kind of advertising as being more effective over the long-term than other kinds of ads.
Colgate-Palmolive (NYSE: CL) reported Q1 results on Wednesday. By now, you know the drill when it comes to consumer-products companies -- weak-dollar-helped-and-commodity-costs-did-not-help. I gotta say, though, that Colgate-Palmolive showed that vigilance in terms of costs can have a positive impact, and that a business does not have to be defined by inflation.
Net sales exploded to the upside by more than 15% (again, currency effects). Net income likewise charged higher, rising 17% to 90 cents per share on an adjusted basis. I know -- superlatives such as "exploded" and "charged higher" might seem a bit hyper here, but it's always cool when a consumer-products company hits those double-digit increases. Colgate-Palmolive, like Clorox (NYSE: CLX) and Procter & Gamble (NYSE: PG), leverages its stable of brands to drive growth in cash flows (Procter & Gamble, by the way, also recently reported quarterly results). This worked like a charm, since cash flow from operations during the past three-month period increased 17%. Way to go, management. Margins, however, were pressured, as can be expected, and they will continue to be pressured in the near future.
The earnings release mentioned the flagship Colgate toothpaste product -- I am a user of the brand, and in fact, I bought a new variety earlier this week. I've said it before and I'll say it again -- the supermarket is full of investing ideas, and Colgate-Palmolive is one of them. The company had a great quarter, it beat expectations according to Briefing.com -- albeit by the usual suspect, namely the "proverbial penny" -- and it seems solid enough. A potential core holding, Colgate-Palmolive should do well over the coming year. Yesterday's 6.7% drop in the price of the shares could have been seen as a buying opportunity for patient, long-term investors, but I'll concede that the stock could languish for a little while.
Disclosure: I don't own shares in any of the companies mentioned; positions can change at any time.
WD-40 (NASDAQ: WDFC) issued its Q2 earnings report yesterday after the close of the market trading session -- and it wasn't full of great news. The top line was essentially flat as net sales dipped 0.5% to almost $79 million. Earnings came in at $0.51 per diluted share versus $0.52 per diluted share in the year-ago time frame.
Another negative aspect to the report was the statement of cash flows. WD-40 took in a lot less in terms of net cash from operations this time around, as changes in working capital and other items affected the flow. There's also a lot less cash on the balance sheet. And, sorry to say shareholders, but WD-40 missed analyst expectations by the proverbial penny. Investors shouldn't always be concerned with Wall Street expectations, but here's something that shareholders will be concerned with: the company lowered its earnings outlook. Management says that revenue growth will probably be somewhere between 4% and 8% as opposed to the originally expected range of between 7% and 10% -- any hopes for double-digit appreciation are now history. Net income per share is now expected to fall in a range between $1.80 and $1.90 versus a previous range of $1.83 and $1.93.
Well, now, what do we make of all this? It was a disappointing report, no question. But WD-40 has some decent brands in its portfolio, including the flagship lubricant, although its brand collection isn't necessarily on par with others, such as Procter & Gamble (NYSE: PG), Colgate-Palmolive (NYSE: CL), and Clorox (NYSE: CLX). WD-40 isn't the current best play in the consumer-goods department at the moment, in my humble opinion. Some will point out that the stock's yield is attractive right now at 3%, but its dividend history isn't as good as others in terms of quarterly hikes. I'm not very bullish on WD-40; maybe I will be at a later date.
Disclosure: I don't own shares in any of the companies mentioned; positions can change at any time.
If recent market turbulence has dented your investment confidence, or if you're concerned about a continued U.S. economic slowdown heading into 2008, consider purchasing Clorox's shares.
Look for The Clorox Company (NYSE: CLX) to keep rolling along. Or, put another way, when will bleach use go out-of-style?
The world's best-known bleach brand has further impressed investors with its lesser-known, but profitable operations: Specialty Group [cat liter, charcoal products, dressings and sauces, Glad brand bags/containers], along with its International Group, which sell products in Latin America and Asia that are similar to those in North America.
What's more, bleach remains a key revenue driver, but in fiscal 2007 Glad trash bags accounted for 14% of revenue, Clorox about 12%.
The risks? Analysts have their eye on rising commodity costs, but CLX's cost cutting programs and pricing power should more than compensate for that concern, in the immediate years ahead. That fact, combined with the company's demonstrated proficiency in marketing, make CLX a low-risk investment. CLX's p/e of 19 is not low, but it's reasonable given its growth prospects and the amount safety the company affords.
The First Call mean rating for CLX is: Hold. [15 firms.] Mean 2007 target: $67.40. [high: $78, low: $58.]
Stock Analysis: Clorox is a low-risk stock. Consider buying Clorox's shares if your portfolio needs a consumer defensive stock. Investors with an investment horizon longer than 1 year should be rewarded from CLX's shares. Sell / Stop Loss if you were to purchase shares of this company: $44.
Clorox Co. (NYSE: CLX) reported a Q1 profit drop this morning on the back of raw material cost increases. It also announced that it will pay just under a billion ($925 million) for Burt's Bees, a leading provider of natural health care products. Burt's Bees has moved from health food stores and organic markets to the mainstream mass market in the last few years, probably marketing itself to be sold. Apparently, it worked.
Clorox's net income dropped to $111 million ($0.76 per share) from $112 million from the year-ago period, which could be seen as a slight decline based on commodity price swings in 2007 alone. Sales for the Q1 period did rise to $1.24 billion, a 6.7% increase.
Clorox indeed said in its earnings release that corn and soybean prices were main factors in the profit decline. Those two food commodities are used in its Hidden Valley food products (namely salad dressings). Resin prices rose in the quarter as well to their highest levels ever, affecting plastic products such as Glad trash bag products and bottles used to hold its namesake bleach.
All in all, Clorox's quarter was not bad considering the commodity turmoil it has exposure to, but I have to question the valuation of Burt's Bees. How did the company come up with a valuation of nearly a billion dollars? Clorox, are you listening?
MOST NOTEWORTHY: CheckFree (CKFR), Talbots (TLB), SPSS Inc (SPSS), Network Appliance (NTAP) and Pozen Inc (POZN) were today's noteworthy downgrades:
Following FiServ's (NASDAQ: FISV) acquisition of CheckFree, Raymond James cut CKFR shares to Market Perform from Strong Buy and Baird downgraded shares to Neutral from Outperform.
Talbots (NYSE: TLB) was cut to Sell from Hold at Citigroup based on valuation, continued earnings disappointments, and a lack of earnings visibility.
Cowen downgraded shares of SPSS Inc (NASDAQ: SPSS) to Underperform from Neutral citing decelerating growth and poor earnings quality.
Bear Stearns cut Network Appliance (NASDAQ: NTAP) to Underperform from Peer Perform on the negative Q1 pre-announcement. Pacific Crest downgraded shares to Sector Perform from Outperform.
After Pozen (NASDAQ: POZN) received a second approvable letter for Trexima, shares were downgraded by three firms:
To Neutral from Strong Buy at First Albany
To Hold from Buy at Jefferies and Lazard...
OTHER DOWNGRADES:
Oppenheimer downgraded Applebee's (NASDAQ: APPB) to Neutral from Buy.
Gabelli downgraded Boston Beer (NYSE: SAM) to Hold from Buy.
Lehman downgraded Luxottica (NYSE: LUX) and Clorox (NYSE: CLX) to Equal Weight from Overweight.
Thomas Weisel downgraded Nortel Networks (NYSE: NT) to Market Weight from Overweight.
MOST NOTEWORTHY: ABN Amro Holding NV (ABN), Werner Enterprises, Inc (WERN), Affiliated Computer Services, Inc (ACS) and Express Scripts (ESRX) were today's more notable upgrades:
Citigroup upgraded ABN Amro Holding NV (NYSE: ABN) to Hold from Sell as the firm believes value can be realized by breaking the company up and selling units to top bidders.
UBS upgraded both Werner Enterprises (NASDAQ: WERN) and Affiliated Computer Services to Neutral from Reduce, based on valuation.
Express Scripts (NASDAQ: ESRX) was upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at Leerink Swann.
OTHER UPGRADES:
JP Morgan upgraded Clorox Co (NYSE: CLX) to Overweight from Neutral.
Bank of America upgraded shares of Tiffany & Co (NYSE: TIF) to Buy from Neutral with a $52 target. The firm believes Tiffany can improve profitability through better operations, efficiency and downside protection from the strong luxury cycle.
Credit Suisse added Office Depot, Inc (NYSE: ODP) to its U.S. Focus List. The firm believes that Office Depot has the most attractive risk/reward profile in the industry and sees limited downside risk given recent weakness and reduced investor expectations.
Kaufman upgraded Best Buy Co, Inc (NYSE: BBY) to Buy from Hold with a $59 target.
Goldman Sachs upgraded Nvidia Corp (NASDAQ: NVDA) to Buy from Neutral with a $33 target, citing valuation.
Lehman Brothers upgraded Cadbury Schweppes plc (NYSE: CSG) to Overweight from Equal Weight.
TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says this consumer-products titan has weathered the storm and should enjoy lower inputs. 
Procter & Gamble
Colgate-Palmolive
Clorox
Serious Money: How 'Stable' after 345 DJIA drop? -- CB, DIS, JNJ, TEVA & XEL
Closing Bell: Dow plunges amid grim economic news; AIG, CIEN, LM, TEX decline, WMT gains
Is BT's offer to save Britain's red phone boxes for £500 fair?
